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Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008
Dempster Still Perfect at Home
Ryan Dempster improved to 9-0 at Wrigley Field by holding the White Sox to one run over eight innings Sunday night, leading the Cubs to their 14th straight home victory and MLB-best 48-28 record. Dempster spent his first four seasons in Chicago as a mediocre reliever, going 9-20 with a 4.10 ERA. He did surprisingly well converting save chances over that span with an 85-percent success rate, but was stripped of ninth-inning duties and moved back to the rotation this year.
Dempster had limited success as a starter early in his career thanks largely to shaky control that included 4.7 walks per nine innings through his first 162 starts. He's still far from a control artist, but handing out 38 walks through 102.2 innings represents a 30-percent improvement and is the biggest reason for his surprising success. He's always been able to rack up plenty of strikeouts, but came into this season with a 5.00 ERA as a starter and a 4.11 ERA as a reliever.
Sunday's outing pushed him over the 100-inning mark for the first time since 2003, so the huge jump in workload may catch up to him in the second half. Beyond that, his secondary numbers?strikeouts, walks, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio?suggest that Dempster has performed more like a 3.75-4.00 ERA pitcher than the 2.63 mark that he's currently sporting. While his improvements are legitimate and he's not likely to fall apart completely, Dempster is a good sell-high candidate.
While the Cubs keep rolling without Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, here are some other notes from around baseball ?
* Justin Duchscherer has followed the same path as Dempster, beginning his career as a starter, spending 2004-2007 in the bullpen, and switching back to the rotation this year. Duchscherer is a little different in that most of his starting was done in the minors and he thrived in the bullpen, but the career progression is similar and the success this season is just as startling. He held the Mariners to one run over 7.2 innings Sunday, improving to 8-4 while slicing his ERA to 1.99.
He's yet to allow more than three runs in a start and has given up two runs or fewer in 11 of 12 outings. However, Duchscherer spent most of April on the disabled list with a strained biceps and has a history of elbow and hip injuries, so like Dempster he's no sure thing to handle the workload increase. My guess is that Duchscherer has a better chance of maintaining an ERA below 3.50 all season, but Dempster has a better chance of staying healthy for 15 more starts.
* Ian Snell struggled Sunday against the Blue Jays and complained of elbow soreness afterward, with the Pirates scheduling him for an MRI exam Monday. "We are going to run some tests," manager John Russell said. "Hopefully it's not anything major, but we'll get some tests run and go from there. He didn't feel right today and he has a little irritation." An elbow problem would help explain Snell's decline this season, although he hadn't reported any trouble prior to Sunday.
Snell faced 1,695 batters between 2006 and 2007, striking out 20.4 percent while walking 7.9 percent. This season his strikeout rate has dipped to 15.4 percent and has walk rate has risen to 11.8 percent. That adds up to 25 percent fewer strikeouts and 50 percent more walks, which along with slightly decreased velocity is certainly the type of performance that you'd expect from someone who's been pitching through elbow problems.
* After sitting out over a year following Tommy John surgery, Mike Gonzalez returned from the disabled list last week and immediately took over as the Braves' closer, tossing a perfect ninth inning to pick up a save in his first appearance. He then waited four days for his next appearance and struggled in a non-save situation Sunday, allowing three runs on three hits, including serving up a homer to a left-handed batter (Jeff Clement) for just the third time in his career.
Gonzalez's command understandably doesn't appear to be very sharp yet, but the velocity on both his fastball and slider are fairly close to where they were in his prime. He still works at around 91-94 miles per hour with his fastball and 78-82 miles per hour with his slider, so expect Gonzalez to have at least reasonable success in the closer role as long as he remains healthy. That's a big question mark given his history, but his stuff looks good enough to get the job done.
AL Quick Hits: Vicente Padilla held the Nationals to three runs over seven innings Sunday and the unlikely quartet of Padilla, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, and Mike Mussina are the AL pitchers with double-digit wins ? Ivan Rodriguez reached base four times Sunday, including a solo homer that was just his second long ball of the season ? After knocking in a run with a first-inning double Sunday, Nick Markakis drew walks in four straight trips to the plate ? Kevin Youkilis delivered a walk-off homer in the 13th inning Sunday and is now just three homers short of matching his career-high of 16 set last year ? Andy Pettitte shut out the Reds for six innings Sunday and has now allowed a total of one run over his last three starts following back-to-back ugly outings to begin the month ? Milton Bradley (quadriceps) singled as a pinch-hitter Saturday, but then missed his fifth straight start Sunday ? With Freddie Bynum designated for assignment Sunday, Alex Cintron takes over as the Orioles' starting shortstop ? He has just one homer this month, but Justin Morneau has still driven in 15 runs over the past 11 games.
NL Quick Hits: Prince Fielder had just one homer through 20 games, but after going deep twice Sunday he has 15 homers in 54 games since ? Randy Wolf totaled 10 strikeouts in Sunday's loss to the Tigers, reaching double digits for the first time in 25 starts ? Mark Teixeira smacked three homers Sunday, giving him 30 homers and 111 RBIs in 129 games with the Braves ? Clint Barmes returned from the disabled list Sunday and will split time at second base with Jeff Baker, sending Ian Stewart back to Triple-A ? Brandon Webb was cruising along Sunday until the Twins scratched together a five-run fifth inning, dropping him to 2-4 since beginning the year 9-0 ? Eric Patterson went 2-for-3 with a homer and three runs Sunday, but likely won't get enough playing time to be a fantasy asset ? Manny Parra handed out a career-high six walks Sunday, yet won his fifth straight start ? Seeing increased action with Cesar Izturis (hamstring) sidelined, Aaron Miles collected five hits Sunday to raise his batting average from .293 to .313 ? Daily Dose favorite Fred Lewis collected three hits and two walks Sunday while swiping his 13th base.
Dempster Still Perfect at Home
Ryan Dempster improved to 9-0 at Wrigley Field by holding the White Sox to one run over eight innings Sunday night, leading the Cubs to their 14th straight home victory and MLB-best 48-28 record. Dempster spent his first four seasons in Chicago as a mediocre reliever, going 9-20 with a 4.10 ERA. He did surprisingly well converting save chances over that span with an 85-percent success rate, but was stripped of ninth-inning duties and moved back to the rotation this year.
Dempster had limited success as a starter early in his career thanks largely to shaky control that included 4.7 walks per nine innings through his first 162 starts. He's still far from a control artist, but handing out 38 walks through 102.2 innings represents a 30-percent improvement and is the biggest reason for his surprising success. He's always been able to rack up plenty of strikeouts, but came into this season with a 5.00 ERA as a starter and a 4.11 ERA as a reliever.
Sunday's outing pushed him over the 100-inning mark for the first time since 2003, so the huge jump in workload may catch up to him in the second half. Beyond that, his secondary numbers?strikeouts, walks, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio?suggest that Dempster has performed more like a 3.75-4.00 ERA pitcher than the 2.63 mark that he's currently sporting. While his improvements are legitimate and he's not likely to fall apart completely, Dempster is a good sell-high candidate.
While the Cubs keep rolling without Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, here are some other notes from around baseball ?
* Justin Duchscherer has followed the same path as Dempster, beginning his career as a starter, spending 2004-2007 in the bullpen, and switching back to the rotation this year. Duchscherer is a little different in that most of his starting was done in the minors and he thrived in the bullpen, but the career progression is similar and the success this season is just as startling. He held the Mariners to one run over 7.2 innings Sunday, improving to 8-4 while slicing his ERA to 1.99.
He's yet to allow more than three runs in a start and has given up two runs or fewer in 11 of 12 outings. However, Duchscherer spent most of April on the disabled list with a strained biceps and has a history of elbow and hip injuries, so like Dempster he's no sure thing to handle the workload increase. My guess is that Duchscherer has a better chance of maintaining an ERA below 3.50 all season, but Dempster has a better chance of staying healthy for 15 more starts.
* Ian Snell struggled Sunday against the Blue Jays and complained of elbow soreness afterward, with the Pirates scheduling him for an MRI exam Monday. "We are going to run some tests," manager John Russell said. "Hopefully it's not anything major, but we'll get some tests run and go from there. He didn't feel right today and he has a little irritation." An elbow problem would help explain Snell's decline this season, although he hadn't reported any trouble prior to Sunday.
Snell faced 1,695 batters between 2006 and 2007, striking out 20.4 percent while walking 7.9 percent. This season his strikeout rate has dipped to 15.4 percent and has walk rate has risen to 11.8 percent. That adds up to 25 percent fewer strikeouts and 50 percent more walks, which along with slightly decreased velocity is certainly the type of performance that you'd expect from someone who's been pitching through elbow problems.
* After sitting out over a year following Tommy John surgery, Mike Gonzalez returned from the disabled list last week and immediately took over as the Braves' closer, tossing a perfect ninth inning to pick up a save in his first appearance. He then waited four days for his next appearance and struggled in a non-save situation Sunday, allowing three runs on three hits, including serving up a homer to a left-handed batter (Jeff Clement) for just the third time in his career.
Gonzalez's command understandably doesn't appear to be very sharp yet, but the velocity on both his fastball and slider are fairly close to where they were in his prime. He still works at around 91-94 miles per hour with his fastball and 78-82 miles per hour with his slider, so expect Gonzalez to have at least reasonable success in the closer role as long as he remains healthy. That's a big question mark given his history, but his stuff looks good enough to get the job done.
AL Quick Hits: Vicente Padilla held the Nationals to three runs over seven innings Sunday and the unlikely quartet of Padilla, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, and Mike Mussina are the AL pitchers with double-digit wins ? Ivan Rodriguez reached base four times Sunday, including a solo homer that was just his second long ball of the season ? After knocking in a run with a first-inning double Sunday, Nick Markakis drew walks in four straight trips to the plate ? Kevin Youkilis delivered a walk-off homer in the 13th inning Sunday and is now just three homers short of matching his career-high of 16 set last year ? Andy Pettitte shut out the Reds for six innings Sunday and has now allowed a total of one run over his last three starts following back-to-back ugly outings to begin the month ? Milton Bradley (quadriceps) singled as a pinch-hitter Saturday, but then missed his fifth straight start Sunday ? With Freddie Bynum designated for assignment Sunday, Alex Cintron takes over as the Orioles' starting shortstop ? He has just one homer this month, but Justin Morneau has still driven in 15 runs over the past 11 games.
NL Quick Hits: Prince Fielder had just one homer through 20 games, but after going deep twice Sunday he has 15 homers in 54 games since ? Randy Wolf totaled 10 strikeouts in Sunday's loss to the Tigers, reaching double digits for the first time in 25 starts ? Mark Teixeira smacked three homers Sunday, giving him 30 homers and 111 RBIs in 129 games with the Braves ? Clint Barmes returned from the disabled list Sunday and will split time at second base with Jeff Baker, sending Ian Stewart back to Triple-A ? Brandon Webb was cruising along Sunday until the Twins scratched together a five-run fifth inning, dropping him to 2-4 since beginning the year 9-0 ? Eric Patterson went 2-for-3 with a homer and three runs Sunday, but likely won't get enough playing time to be a fantasy asset ? Manny Parra handed out a career-high six walks Sunday, yet won his fifth straight start ? Seeing increased action with Cesar Izturis (hamstring) sidelined, Aaron Miles collected five hits Sunday to raise his batting average from .293 to .313 ? Daily Dose favorite Fred Lewis collected three hits and two walks Sunday while swiping his 13th base.