Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
This climbing up
Great bet on the lookahead with Dallas-2 5
Great bet on the lookahead with Dallas-2 5
Fezzik GOY Part II
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Didn't that teaser win by a mile?
Heim
EOG Master
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
OK
Thought the teaser of the century was bills sf
So does this show the NE teaser is sharp as the +8.5 won?
Thought the teaser of the century was bills sf
So does this show the NE teaser is sharp as the +8.5 won?
Heim
EOG Master
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
a winner non the less.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Is that b/c they lost 30-17.3* CFB BOMB is up!
However when you look at tonight's history Coastal mysteriously became a 2*.
Heim
EOG Master
When he released -6.5, Bookmaker was -115. He guessed wrong, from that point on it was all State money closing 4.5. Consequently a 3* Bomb became 2*.
When he released -6.5, Bookmaker was -115. He guessed wrong, from that point on it was all State money closing 4.5. Consequently a 3* Bomb became 2*.
Texas State -17 is the 3*.
Heim
EOG Master
It's funny about Fezzik, for a advantage player he still likes to utilize old school situational handicapping. Fading NEV after a big effort. The only time
I met him at 'The M' he was talking a revenge spot in CBB, which lost. The only advantage he has is getting to a number than never comes back. No data
base, no historical trends. He says he wins. Who knows?
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
This HEIM truly is a donk.
Everyone with a pulse wins.
The hard part is winning large.
Whenever I hear someone question "Does that guy win" it's such a bad question. Complete Dumbos win. (Sorry Cutter).
Everyone with a pulse wins.
The hard part is winning large.
Whenever I hear someone question "Does that guy win" it's such a bad question. Complete Dumbos win. (Sorry Cutter).
Heim
EOG Master
Wow... it's 2007 all over again!
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
(374)Wash 20' ml at circa -1090 (386) Neb-21 Circa ml-1400 (372)Oregon-21 Circa ml -845 BIG VALUE on the ducks all the suckers on deion ml So I'm playing 2* -845 at Circa.
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
Even Tony Bigcharles wins. The guy has parlayed his last $500 into a $25k sockroll over so many years and has been as high as $40k. He's living the dream currently in Reno the biggest little city in the world.
Heim
EOG Master
As stated, all Fezzik has in his tool belt is old situational handicapping. What letdown after Kansas? Those teams were equal at Reno.
Kansas was far from a 28 point favorite. I could see if Nevada beat SC or Oregon. Sometimes it pays to watch a game or two.
Last edited:
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Still climbing
COMPTRBOB
TODAY - 9:54 AM
#3308
Post tools
Note early selection of Pit ML as well as another bet +3 on gameday:
9/24/23 Sunday (7/6/23 12:19pm) Pit ML -110 vs LV [23-18] NFL 3 W 3
9/24/23 Sunday (9/24/23 7:43am) PROP Sea QB Wilson rush yds OVER 15.5 -140 [0] NFL 2 L -2.8
9/24/23 Sunday (9/24/23 9:24am) Pit +3 -115 [23-18] NFL 2 W 2
YTD +43.80u
COMPTRBOB
TODAY - 9:54 AM
#3308
Post tools
Note early selection of Pit ML as well as another bet +3 on gameday:
9/24/23 Sunday (7/6/23 12:19pm) Pit ML -110 vs LV [23-18] NFL 3 W 3
9/24/23 Sunday (9/24/23 7:43am) PROP Sea QB Wilson rush yds OVER 15.5 -140 [0] NFL 2 L -2.8
9/24/23 Sunday (9/24/23 9:24am) Pit +3 -115 [23-18] NFL 2 W 2
YTD +43.80u
Heim
EOG Master
railbird
EOG Master
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Dov Kleiman
@NFL_DovKleiman
Update: For the 3rd straight week, #Bills make Safety Damar Hamlin an "healthy inactive", this time vs the #Commanders Maybe they're just waiting for him to be fully healthy before they play him?
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
It's now the 1.25 menu at mcds
Heim
EOG Master
Fezzik's play history is a good learning experience for newbies and guys that think they can beat -110 long term.
You don't need a sub rosa audio tape of Fezzik and Bell to understand you can't win full game long run.
Fezzik shouldn't be touting but at least with a plethora of books now, you have more outs until you're booted
following steam or double popping props.
Like the mysterious 'Fezzik Sports' claims, 'everyone is winning'.....until they don't.
Krackman had a interesting comment the other day 'you need to lose, before you learn to win'
Naturally, when you have backers and can stay in the game.
You don't need a sub rosa audio tape of Fezzik and Bell to understand you can't win full game long run.
Fezzik shouldn't be touting but at least with a plethora of books now, you have more outs until you're booted
following steam or double popping props.
Like the mysterious 'Fezzik Sports' claims, 'everyone is winning'.....until they don't.
Krackman had a interesting comment the other day 'you need to lose, before you learn to win'
Naturally, when you have backers and can stay in the game.
Heim
EOG Master
Krack and Fezzik, 2 of the biggest names in the business....Krack on social media breaks down the game by saying he's playing props, Fezzik on a losing teaser.
Exactly what happens when you go tout. Sides and totals a last resort. Always in prevent defense to amass easy units for a sale.
Many props to BW, albeit, a originator, but a gambler's gambler.
Exactly what happens when you go tout. Sides and totals a last resort. Always in prevent defense to amass easy units for a sale.
Many props to BW, albeit, a originator, but a gambler's gambler.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
10/2/23 Monday (9/27/23 6:29am) 7 pt teaser GB +8.5/Sea +8.5 -140 [20-34/24-3] NFL 3 L -4.2 10/2/23 Monday (10/1/23 2:33pm) 6 pt teaser Chiefs -1.5/NYG +7.5 -120 [23-20/3-24] NFL 2 L -2.4 Fezz violated several teaser rules: 1 playing opp teams in the same game. 2. playing a road fav(KC) only a 69% play vs 73% in order to win. 3. Laying -120 when -123 is break even so very small equity if at all. Two pt conversion and xtra pts not automatic reduce percentages(like wash should go for two but didn't saving the phil leg from losing)
Actually, no.
1. Note the first teaser was lost before the second one was bet, but even so, the subsequent line move to Seattle as the favorite made the Giants become a teaser candidate. Both teasers are Wong teasers going through the 3 and 7.
2. Road favorites of -7.5 are pretty rare, but over the last 20 years they cover 6 pt teasers at 35-9, 79.5% and last 10 years, 22-4, 84.6%, last 3 years, 12-1, 92.3%. Only if you just look at last year, 2-1 (Commanders beat Cowboys, road -7.5 fav, 26-6, Week 18), do you get less than 79%, but obviously too small a sample to eliminate this class.
3. So decent equity at -120, but beware of Circa that charges -130 (and grades a Push and a L as a L, doesn't apply to teasing -7.5 down by 6))
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
The road fav includes 8 and 8' not just 7'. All calculations should be based on current rules of moving the extra pt back,incentivising going for two more. If you say -120 is highly profitable then what is break even. Again using current rules. Thanks.
The X Pt was moved in 2015. This season X Pt conversions are 269 made of 274 attempts, 98% (no really bad weather yet).
Since then, the -7.5 road fav teaser leg is 21-3, -8 road fav is 9-0 and -8.5 is 9-1 (Cumulative 39-4, 90.7%). The OT change to 10 minutes (+ if first possession =FG gives other team a possession) has increased the probable # of ties and so the long-term win% of teasing favs below -3 should go just a little bit lower.
Breakeven point depends on the actual composition of the 2 teams' lines. Generally, I would estimate the breakeven point for a Wong teaser going forward at roughly 77% per leg or a 6 point, 2-team teaser price of -146. Note that blindly betting 2 team NFL teasers, since 2015, are 3116-1287-71 or a win rate of 70.8% which is a big loser with the breakeven of -120 of 73.85%.
Obviously get the best numbers and best price, stay away from Circa.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
From the fake:
MLB subs get screwed! No MLB plays in 14 days!
MLB subs get screwed! No MLB plays in 14 days!