HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

[Hoosier Daddy]

Poinsettia Bowl:

Utah (-7) (-120)
Many subscribe to the blindly bet the dog angle before Jan 1. I don't trust that. Navy can't stop anyone. Utah is at least decent against the run.

Sorry I can't write more.

Pressed for time today.


GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Add:

Navy/Utah Under 65

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

2 brutal beats last night.

0-2 Bowls YTD

0-1 Totals
0-1 Sides

New Orleans Bowl:
Florida Atlantic/Memphis Over 66
Both clubs give up over 415 yards per game. FAU has been putting up points in their last several games and Memphis has been doing the same and they are fairly balanced on offense.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

1-2 Bowls YTD

1-1 Totals
0-1 Sides

Easy over last night. Feels good not to sweat one out.

2 for today:

Papa John's.com Bowl:

Cincinnati (-10')
I know I am a fool for laying DD in a bowl game, but Southern Miss is not that good. Cincy plays good defense and USM turns the ball over a fair amount.

New Mexico Bowl:
Nevada (+3)
The Pack are usually terrible OTR, but they have been competitive there. They should have beaten Northwestern and Boise on the road. I also questions New Mexico's motivation playing in Albuquerque. They probably wanted to go elsewhere. I think Nevada is the more motivated team here.

Las Vegas Bowl:
Been going back and forth. BYU, on paper, looks like the easy pick, but this line is jacked up and UCLA may play hard for Dewayne Walker. I'll wait on this one til later today if I play it.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Las Vegas Bowl:

UCLA/BYU Under 46'

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

1-2 yesterday.

2-4 YTD Bowls
2-1 Totals
0-3 Sides

Slow start, per usual.

Hawaii Bowl:
East Carolina (+11)
Really just a play against Boise here. Boise is clearly the better team, but I get the sense from what I have read that East Carolina is clearly excited to be playing in this game. Boise already played here against the Rainbow Warriors a few weeks ago. Boise also won the Fiesta Bowl, the pinnacle and holy grail for their program, and now play in the Hawaii Bowl. Big step down for Boise. Plus, there are still a few decent coaching jobs open and Chris Peterson seems to be in the mix for all of them so that may be a distraction. I have a feeling if any locals attend this game, they will root against Boise. The crowd won't be much of a factor though. I just see East Carolina as the more motivated team.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

3-4 Bowls YTD
2-1 Totals
1-3 Sides

Motor City Bowl:
Central Michigan (+8)
Purdue blew them out 45-22 in Week 1, but they were up 38-0 at one point. Like the Hawaii Bowl, I go with the more motvated team and I think it's the Chippewas. CMU has nothing to lose whatsoever in this game. Purdue shouldn't be laying 8 points, eseentially OTR (CMU has sold over 11,000 for this game and Purdue about 4,500) with their porous pass defense. Purdue is not excited to be playing here after losing their L3, especially the last game at Indiana.

CMU's defense seemed to get better towards the latter part of the year. Purdue's did not.

GL

HD

 

[JT McGEE]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Good luck HD. You going to be on the Hoosiers against OSU?

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Good luck HD. You going to be on the Hoosiers against OSU?

JT,

Not sure. I would lean with Indiana and may end up on them. I like the over a little better though.

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

4-4 Bowls YTD

2-1 Totals
2-3 Sides

Holiday Bowl:
Arizona State (+3) (-120) and ML
Pretty much a play against Mack Brown and on Dennis Erickson. Erickson will have these guys with a chip on their shoulder since they were "passed over" for the Fiesta Bowl. Texas is living on borrowed time and have been lucky all year. They had 3 lucky wins against Arkansas St, Nebraska and Oklahoma St.
McCoy is also a turnover machine with 18 picks this year. ASU's defense is better than Texas's defense by far. Texas's D, especially through the air, gives up big play after big play.

I was considering the under as well, but I can't bring myself to do it. I loved the over last night, but I am trying not to take side and total in the same game. I got burned doing it in the Poinsettia Bowl.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Had the wrong side big time last night. I thought ASU would be more motivated. Carpenter really needs to stop running his mouth. He's a whiny little piece of sh1t. I think Sullivan gives them a better chance at QB.

Champs Sports Bowl:

Michigan State (+5')
Michigan State/Boston College Over 56

For the total, this is Matt Ryan's last game and I expect him to throw the football all over the place against a mediocre Spartan pass D. I also expect MSU to move the ball. They were down 24-7 to Penn State, a better D than BC IMO, and came back. MSU is balanced and has hit their fair share of big plays. I actually think the Spartans are more motviated here. They were so happy they didn't have to go to the Motor City Bowl. BC was #2 in the nation at one point and think national title or at least BCS game (Orange Bowl) and now they are in the Champs Sports Bowl!?!?!?

Texas Bowl:
No play here. Not sure how Houston will react without Art Briles calling the plays. If it goes to +7, I may take a flier on Houston.

Emerald Bowl:
Maryland/Oregon State Under 48
2 running teams with 2 mediocre at best QB's. I looked up the stats for these 2, and these two teams only had 17 pass TDs against 29 INTs. I expect a lot of sacks here in this game as well to kill drives. Should be a fair amount of 3 and outs. OSU also was #2 in the nation in Rushing Defense. I have watched Maryland enough to know that if they are forced to pass, they can't make any big plays. Steffy is awful and his backup is just a tad better, but just a tad.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Texas Bowl:

TCU/Houston Under 58'
I think Houston will be out of sync on offense without Briles on the sideline. Both OC's are also gone from UH. Chris Thurmond, the interim coach, is a a defensive-minded coach. TCU runs a lot of zone blitzes and changes coverages. I think this will confuse Houston a bunch. TCU is also offensively challenged.

GL

HD

 

[JT McGEE]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Nice work on MSU and the under is looking very solid.

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

3-1 today. 3 unders today after a ton of overs. Be back tomorrow with a couple plays.

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

7-6 Bowls YTD

4-2 Totals
3-4 Sides

Meineke Car Care Bowl:
Connecticut (+2)
Connecticut/Wake Forest Under 47
Taking the Huskies here. Wake turns the ball over more than Conn and I think that's the difference here. Skinner threw 12 INTs in 10 games and Conn had 22 INTs this year.

More later.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Liberty Bowl:

Central Florida (-3)
Central Florida/Mississippi State Under 55
I think UCF is the better team here. MSU is a nice story and earned their way into a bowl, but I still don't think they have the offensive firepower. UCF won't be able to run as easily against an SEC defense with more speed than they have likely seen, with the exception of Texas and Miss State's D is much better than Texas. UCF has been bowling and this is a new experience for Miss State. They may have had too much fun instead of focusing on the game.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Alamo Bowl:

Texas A & M (+5')
This one seems like the easiest play on the board to take Penn State. Paterno-Darnell is a mismatch. The idiot from A & M made a crack about Paterno at the pep rally, etc, etc. I go the opposite way here. There's just something fishy about this one to me.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Greetings from Tempe!!!!!!!!

Out here to watch the Hoosiers in the Insight Bowl. First time in 13 years. A note for bettors that pay attention to how teams travel. IU sold about 9000 of their 10500 tickets. The allotment would have sold out if they went to the Champs Bowl in Orlando. However, there are more IU people here than Okie State people. I just got here a little while ago, so I haven't walked around much, but everyone I have seen tells me IU is fairly well represented.

Anyway, on to the picks. Played these overnight and early morn, not all #'s avail, most are though.

9-9 YTD (6-2 Totals, 3-7 Sides)

Armed Forces Bowl:
Air Force (+4')
Air Force/Cal Over 54'
Cal making a mistake sticking with the injured Longshore. Cal will score b/c AFA doesn't have the speed to stop their pass game. However, AFA will also score. Plus, AFA much more motivated team here.

Sun Bowl:
Oregon (+7) (-120)
Oregon/South Florida Under 52
If Oregon keeps Grothe in the pocket, he's not as effective. Roper wasn't too bad against the Beavs in the Civil War. They will have him manage the game. USF couldn't stop Rice running, so Stewart could have a big day.

Humanitarian Bowl:
Fresno State (+6)
Fresno State/Georgia Tech Under 54'
Pat Hill always gets his team up to play BCS conf schools. This is no exception.

Music City Bowl:
Florida State (+10)(-120)
Florida St/Kentucky Under 58
FSU, depleted as they are, are still dangerous getting this many from a UK team that won this bowl LY. I like the under as well b/c DC Mickey Andrews is as crafty as anyone in devising schemes.

Insight Bowl:
Indiana/Oklahoma State Over 68'
Shootout. This could be the highest scoring bowl of them all. Okie State's defense is swiss cheese. IU's defense a tad better. Good pass rush, one good cover corner, that's it. I want to take Indiana, but don't want to bet with my heart. I do feel they win here. This is the perfect end to an emotional year.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl:
Auburn (+3) (-120)
Auburn/Clemson Under 46'
I like Tuberville over Tommy B. Auburn more experienced. I see both teams struggling to score. Aub has a new OC for this one.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

17-13 Bowls

9-5 Totals
8-8 Sides

Tough game to sit through last night. Sorry for under bettors. Gundy kept throwing the ball. Lynch called TO to make a point to him and then IU scored again. They both got in a pissing match. IU just didn't have the athletes to match up. But the Block Party was fun. I would definitely recommend Tempe as a great place to party for NYE.

Outback Bowl:
Wisconsin/Tennessee Under 57
Wisconsin (+3) (-120)

Cotton Bowl:
Arkansas (+4) (-115)
Arkansas/Missouri Over 67

Didn't have time to give any rationale for these.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Capital One Bowl:
Michigan (+11)
Michigan/Florida Over 59'

I think Mich will at least put a good effort out for Carr, whom they seem to like. Michigan can't stop a spread offense and Fla will put up points here. Ron English is looking for work, so I am sure the defensive gameplan wasn't all that elaborate.

However, Florida's defense sucks. Michigan can score on them. Georgia gave them the blueprint.

Gator Bowl:
Virginia (+6)
Groh is preety good as a dog. TT is the more sexy, public team. UVA doesn't do anything fancy, but just wins.

Rose Bowl:
Illinois (+14)
Nobody is giving this team a chance. When the pairings were announced, having seen this team in person, even I was saying this team doesn't belong in the Rose Bowl. I think they come out fired up and keep this close. USC is not the usual offensive juggernaut that they have been in the past.

Sugar Bowl:
Georgia (-7) (-120)
This will not be Boise State revisited. Public seems to be supporting Hawaii. I don't see it. This team lost by 7 LY at a mediocre Alabama team. This Hawaii team is not that much better than LY's version. They played a really soft schedule and that will show here.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Add:

Illinois/USC Under 50
The Illini defense is better than many people think. Also, this is the best USC defense Carroll has ever had.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Add:

Michigan (+9') 2nd Half
Love the way they are playing with emotion. Florida can't stop this team right now.

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Add:

Illinois (+7) 1st half

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

It is late I know, but I put a little on Ga/Haw Under 31' for 2nd half. I got called away for a few.

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Totals 13-7
Sides 12-12

25-19 (including half wagers)

Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma/West Virginia Under 62

Waiting to see if # keeps going up on OU and might take a flyer on WV.

GL

HD

 

[The General]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

25-19 is a good job HD.

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Thanks, Pete.


Add:

West Virginia (+9)
I think ESPN running this segment all day about how zero teams without their reg season head coaches have won in the bowls have driven this line upwards. This will be Slaton's last game. I think he will want to go out with a bang.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Orange Bowl:

Kansas/Virginia Tech Under 52
I still don't trust VT's offense. I don't like switching QB's all the time. VT's defense is stout against the run and I think Reesing may throw some errant balls. Liked KU +3' or +4 at Bodog, but not +3 or 2.5.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

International Bowl:

Ball State (+11)
Rutgers has taken a step back this year. Rutgers is still not consistent in throwing the ball. Ball State's defense improved the L4 weeks (4 straight unders) and will stack the line to stop Rice. Ball State has got to be more excited to be in this bowl than Rutgers. Rutgers defense also leaves the backdoor as a live possibility, but I don't think they will need it. Rutgers has given up lots of points to even fair offenses (34 to Maryland, 28 to Cincy, 27 to South Florida, 31 in bad weather to West Virginia, 38 to UConn, and 41 to Louisville. Ball St is perfectly capable of putting low to mid 30's on this team.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

27-21 Bowls

14-8 Totals
13-13 Sides

GMAC Bowl:
Bowling Green/Tulsa Over 75'
Neither of these clubs can stop anybody, and I mean anybody.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 2007-08 Bowl Thread

Tough loss with the Over. BG ought to be ashamed of itself for that horsesh1t effort. Tulsa ought to be ashamed for letting Paul Smith throw the ball up 56-7.

Anyway, on to tonight.

BCS Title Game
Ohio State/LSU Under 48
Ohio State ML (small)
I also like Ohio St but I will not bet at this #. I do have a little on the Money Line however. I think Ohio State is going to win this game period. Tressel over Miles is worth points in itself. OSU is going to have a different frame of mind. They have been crucified in the media for a whole year. Lack of speed in the Big 10, blah, blah, blah. What do you think Ohio State doesn't get blue-chippers and recruits complete stiffs? Give me a break. These guys have 2nd-stringers that will be NFL Draft Picks. OSU's defense gets stops when they need them and I think they will here as well. LSU will get pressure on Boeckman though and make the passing game difficult for the Bucks. I think this will be decided by the Buckeyes running the ball and controlling the clock. If Kentucky can run on LSU, then Ohio State can as well. Much has been made about the record # of points and the fact that defenses have gone down hill. I think these are 2 of the only clubs that have proven that they can get stops on defense consistently. I have also said before that I don't like teams that switch QB's. We saw it with Va Tech in the Orange Bowl. I think the talent is very equal here. Sometimes close games (at least close on paper) come down to coaching and clock management and Les Miles has proven to be a complete boob on both of those subjects. Tressel will have these guys ready to go.

GL

HD