HD's 3/21 CBB

#1
After the Belmont-Duke 1st H over, I was sitting with a good day, and then proceeded to lose every single game left on the card. Proceed with caution if you follow me.

Early session:

825/826 Western Kentucky/Drake Over 139'
Two teams that can really shoot the ball.

826 Drake (-4)
A prime candidate for an upset and I picked against them in one of my brackets as well, but W Kentucky really struggled with S Alabama in both games and I have concerns about Western against good teams.

835/836 Davidson/Gonzaga Over 140'

836 Gonzaga (+2)
Small play. I wouldn't bet a fortune here either way. I like that the Zags are the dog and udner the radar now.

843/844 Saint Mary's/Miami FL Under 63 1st Half
843/844 Saint Mary's/Miami FL Under 137' Game
SMC has gotten a little less wide open with their offense. I don't see that changing here. Miami takes bad shots and these misses will allow SMC to establish tempo.

845 American (+10') 1st Half
845 American (+20) Game
845/846 American/Tennessee Under 66' 1st Half
Most of these arenas will be empty early and totals will go low in the 1st Half. 3 of the 4 yesterday were at 62 or below (Port St-Kansas the lone exception).

I also think American is smart enough to slow down.

GL(I really, really need it)

HD
 
#3
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

Afternoon Session:

827/828 San Diego/Connecticut Under 132
Grier will not run with this team. He will slow this game down. UConn sometimes falls in love with the 3 if they make the first couple.

833 UMBC (+17')
Small area school vs. big area school. These two clubs are familiar with each other.

841/842 Austin Peay/Texas Over 139'
I agree with Pool and others here. The OVC is a terrible defensive conference. AP can score points and Texas will run as well. AP has no one to stay with Augustin and when you can't stay with him, everyone gets into the act offensively.

848 Butler (-4)
Now -4'. Maybe recommend a buydown. Butler has been here before. They are always undersized and have to keep USA in check off the glass. Both teams have a chip on their shoulder, especially Butler. They were #12 in the AP and #10 in the Coaches poll and #17 in the RPI and they are a 7 seed? And they have to play a 10 seed in their own home state. Talk about a slap in the face. I respect Arrow and USA, but Butler is just murder to play against and I think they will eventually crack.

GL

HD
 
#5
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

Add:

827 San Diego (+13)
UConn is a huge tout play. USD is being played against b/c they "don't belong here".

847/848 South Alabama/Butler Over 126'

GL

HD
 
#6
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

God if SMC could have missed that 3, I would have won the under. Like I said, I never win the close ones. I am owed about 3 so far.
 
#12
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

Had USD-UConn all set up (side, under and 2nd H side) to win all 3 and it goes OT. I just want to hang myself right now. FFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't get one break. This is getting old.
 
#14
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

HD,

AP missed free throws in the end. You'll get it back. What do you think of Siena tonite? I'm leaning toward them.
Oregon too. Vandy & Miss St. look too easy. I generally don't like the NCAA Tourney(from a betting standpoint). Based on the 1st 2 days results thus far, OR. and Siena are sticking out to me in these spots. What's your take?
 
#15
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

Hell with it. I might as well go for broke here. 11-7 day session and 7-4 during the day, but we saw what happened last night. BEWARE.

Early evening:
823 Siena (+3') 1st Half
823 Siena (+7) Game
823/824 Siena/Vanderbilt Under 154

Vandy doesn't shoot well on the road. Plus, they give up a ton of points in the point and offensive rebounds. I don't like backing bad defensive teams as favs. Neither team shoots as well on the road. Everyone talking like this will be a track meet. Go the opposite of the punditry and see a game scored in the high 60's.

Still seeing if like anything in the Carolina game.

839 Oregon (+3) (-120)
I know Ernie Kent is a moron and arguably the worst coach in the tournament, but he does have 4 seniors who have experience. Miss State has scoring droughts and that could hurt them at times. oregon can go on big runs from the outside.

839/840 Oregon/Mississippi State Over 65' 1st Half
839/840 Oregon/Mississippi State Over 142 Game
Oregon will be smart enough to not go at Varnado. They will shoot 3's instead. Miss State should get points on the inside against a small Oregon frontline.

851/852 St. Joseph's/Oklahoma Over 127

In full disclosure, I did bet St. Joe's +2 earlier in the week, but this scares me that all the touts love them.

I'll post late games later.

GL

HD
 
#16
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

Nightcap games:

821 Villanova (+6')
Clemson beat Duke and almost beat UNC. They are getting a little overvalued IMO. Reynolds will be able to break Clemson's pressure.

821/822 Villanova/Clemson Over 67 1st Half
821/822 Villanova/Clemson Over 145 Game

832 Indiana (-2)
IU is an ugly fav here and that's why I like them. IU has had one good half of ball since Sampson was ousted. I think they step up here. Indiana's best game is still much better than Arkansas. DJ White has been through too much to let them flame out like this. IU will try to win this with their defense, which wasn't too bad down the stretch.

831/832 Indiana/Arkansas Under 140
This will be a slugfest.

837 UT-Arlington (+25)
Very small here. Memphis has sleepwalked through their last couple first round games as a top seed.

850 Louisville (-7') 1st half
850 Louisville (-13') Game
I have the Cards in the FF and I expect a focused effort after getting beaten in the BE Quarters. Boise is a dumb team and they showed that against New Mex St in the WAC Final.

849/850 Boise St/Louisville Over 68' 1st Half
849/850 Boise St/Louisville Over 145' Game
I played this # when Helmut released it a couple days ago. I would still play it anything below 150. Boise is who they are. They want to run. U of L's natural inclination is to run. There will be lots of points off turnovers and fast breaks here.

NIT:
853 Creighton (+9)
I'll take this many points with Altman, one of the best out there IMO. Creighton had to fight back the other night and Florida had an easy win over SDSU, so why is this less than 10?

GL

HD
 
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#18
Re: HD's 3/21 CBB

22-13 in the Tourney today after 8-14 yesterday. Lost a couple close ones that would have made it much better. Both the first half and whole game total in Nova-Clemson by a single point each time. USD-UConn goes to OT. UMBC by a point and a half. Had a couple breaks with Oregon-Miss St foulfest and UT Arlington (even though they covered the whole game until :20 left). Lots more went against me though. Oh well, a better day today anyway.
 
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