John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Heim

EOG Master
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Computer Bob reports it, and I believe it.

Excellent JK. Good run.I know how brutal it can be.

Hard work and dedication certainly allow you to win at gambling.

Feels good. But then hard work and dedication will then hand you your head the next week.

LOL. OK, gambling is not really LOL.



Is this another way of saying 'Wiiinnning.......And The Livin' is Easy'?
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Billy Walters agrees with Irish Tim.

They both believe in volume.

Micah Cook, a recent guest on The EOG Sports Hour, made 205 plays on the BracketBuster card this past Saturday.

Micah went 115-90.

As I understand it, Micah's wagers ranged from $250 to $2,000 with an average bet slightly less than $800.


If you have the edge, the argument is you are suppose to bet volume. But why bet an average of $800 on 205 games in a day. Putting up $160K? Why don't they bet their biggest edges for more money? If you have the edge, isn't the bigger edges better?

That said, if someone wants to bet me 500 games in a week. I would book them. Tim, Micah but not BW cause he is proven. However, I highly doubt he came close to 500 plays in a week??
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

If you have the edge, the argument is you are suppose to bet volume. But why bet an average of $800 on 205 games in a day. Putting up $160K? Why don't they bet their biggest edges for more money? If you have the edge, isn't the bigger edges better?

That said, if someone wants to bet me 500 games in a week. I would book them. Tim, Micah but not BW cause he is proven. However, I highly doubt he came close to 500 plays in a week??

Easier to fly under the radar betting more games for less $ is my guess.

I find it hard to believe myself that anyone can find a discernible edge for 500 games a week, but more power to anyone that can, and if I could, I would certainly bet every single one.
 

dogball

EOG Master
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

If you have the edge, the argument is you are suppose to bet volume. But why bet an average of $800 on 205 games in a day. Putting up $160K? Why don't they bet their biggest edges for more money? If you have the edge, isn't the bigger edges better?

That said, if someone wants to bet me 500 games in a week. I would book them. Tim, Micah but not BW cause he is proven. However, I highly doubt he came close to 500 plays in a week??

Agree in full, i get nutty with lots of games, very selective has yielded much better results for me. I press on games i like
 

Bagiant

EOG Dedicated
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

That would be like betting 72 games a nght 7 days a week. Highly improbable if you ask me. There just aren't that many games to go around during the week unless you are betting soccer, NBA, NFL, NCAA foots and baskets, hockey. Just too many sports to be good at for picks in all of them. Jack of all trades, master of none!
 
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Good stuff, JK.

Those are "pro" numbers for sure...maybe you could school Fezzik?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

If you have the edge, the argument is you are suppose to bet volume. But why bet an average of $800 on 205 games in a day. Putting up $160K? Why don't they bet their biggest edges for more money? If you have the edge, isn't the bigger edges better?

That said, if someone wants to bet me 500 games in a week. I would book them. Tim, Micah but not BW cause he is proven. However, I highly doubt he came close to 500 plays in a week??

In horse racing, the old saying is you can beat a race but you can't beat the races.

The saying should read the other way around.

You can beat the races, but anything can happen in a single race.

Same with sports wagering.

Micah Cook tries to bet to his edge with wagers between $250 and $2,000.

You ask, "If you have the edge, aren't the biggest edges better?"

Of course.

But his $250 wagers may hit at a rate of 52% (a winning percentage at reduced juice) and his $2,000 bets may hit at 54-55%.

I claim you still want to make those bets at $250.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Good stuff, JK.

Those are "pro" numbers for sure...maybe you could school Fezzik?

Thanks LQQKer.

Fezz and his wife got mad at me for labeling their $2,500 handicapping seminar "overpriced."

No holiday card for me this past year and no radio appearances from Fezz anytime soon.

You can't make it up.
 
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

In horse racing, the old saying is you can beat a race but you can't beat the races.

The saying should read the other way around.

You can beat the races, but anything can happen in a single race.

Same with sports wagering.

Micah Cook tries to bet to his edge with wagers between $250 and $2,000.

You ask, "If you have the edge, aren't the biggest edges better?"

Of course.

But his $250 wagers may hit at a rate of 52% (a winning percentage at reduced juice) and his $2,000 bets may hit at 54-55%.

I claim you still want to make those bets at $250.

We spend a lot of our time sorting the expected win%, and so many times they turn out all just about the same.
 

Scratch

EOG Veteran
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Portland...............The praise has ended. You are only as good as your last HORRIBLE selection..BYU:lol
 

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

In horse racing, the old saying is you can beat a race but you can't beat the races.

The saying should read the other way around.

You can beat the races, but anything can happen in a single race.

Same with sports wagering.

Micah Cook tries to bet to his edge with wagers between $250 and $2,000.

You ask, "If you have the edge, aren't the biggest edges better?"

Of course.

But his $250 wagers may hit at a rate of 52% (a winning percentage at reduced juice) and his $2,000 bets may hit at 54-55%.

I claim you still want to make those bets at $250.

Completely disagree
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

JK continues on a slight downward trend since Dec. 2010 (381-363-9, -18.83u). I am combining all the radio picks (the old WinWed and the EOG Sports Hour) with the posted selections on EOG.

Overall record through Dec. 26, 2012: 577-502-15, 53.5%, up +25.87u.

For those interested, his overall WNBA record is 95-87-1, 52.2%, down -1.00u.
 

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

JK continues on a slight downward trend since Dec. 2010 (381-363-9, -18.83u). I am combining all the radio picks (the old WinWed and the EOG Sports Hour) with the posted selections on EOG.

Overall record through Dec. 26, 2012: 577-502-15, 53.5%, up +25.87u.

For those interested, his overall WNBA record is 95-87-1, 52.2%, down -1.00u.


Forget trying to monitor these things, it's all about line shopping and snaring good numbers in this business.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

I'm ahead $563 with JK's selections, down from a high of over 3k.
 
Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

Forget trying to monitor these things, it's all about line shopping and snaring good numbers in this business.

Big difference between computer message boards and daily Las Vegas behavior.

Computer Bob is the Gold Standard for sports gambling records. His posts always make me more cynical about gambling.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

Re: Update thru almost the end of 2012 ...

JK continues on a slight downward trend since Dec. 2010 (381-363-9, -18.83u). I am combining all the radio picks (the old WinWed and the EOG Sports Hour) with the posted selections on EOG.

Overall record through Dec. 26, 2012: 577-502-15, 53.5%, up +25.87u.

For those interested, his overall WNBA record is 95-87-1, 52.2%, down -1.00u.

I don't like the downward trajectory but thankfully I've avoided the fiscal cliff.

And thanks for your dedicated recordkeeping, Bob.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

I don't belong in the same category as Bob, but thanks, Kinger.:cheers
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Time for an update with the NCAAB season at an end and WNBA about to start.

JK has stemmed the tide of his slight downward trend since Dec. 2010 (now almost breakeven, 450-409-11, -1.03u). I am combining all the radio picks (the old WinWed and the EOG Sports Hour) with the posted selections on EOG. (One bet still outstanding, Nets series vs Bulls -140, 2.8u risked)

Overall EOG record through April. 28, 2013: 667-565-18, 54.1%, up +46.15u.
 
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

^^ just shows how tough it is to make any decent money sports betting. even at $200/unit, you would've had to put $250,000 in play just to make $9200 over 5 years, and that's with a top 1% capper.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Update at the start of NBA and CBB seasons: JK basically treading water on radio and EOG posted picks since Dec. 2010 (519-472-15, -2.78u).

All-time overall EOG record through October 31, 2013: 736-628-22, 54.0%, +44.40u
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Update near the end of the NBA season: JK down slightly on radio and EOG posted picks since Dec. 2010 (601-554-16, -12.12u).

However, up all-time, overall EOG record through June 12, 2014: 818-710-23, 53.5%, +35.06u
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

I waited till JK went on a 4-0 jag :) LOL (btw: I think you forgot to give yourself a unit won on the Wizards pick yesterday). Have not included radio picks since the EOG best bet thread started.

Nearly a year since the last update: JK down markedky on EOG radio and posted picks since Dec. 2010 (757-724-24, -45.85u).


All-time, overall EOG record very close to breakeven through May 3, 2015: 953-863-30, 52.45%, +1.33u
 

Heim

EOG Master
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

>All-time, overall EOG record very close to breakeven through May 3, 2015: 953-863-30, 52.45%, +1.33u<



Good news if his unit size is 500k
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

Nobody told me there'd be days like these.

Thanks for your recordkeeping, Bob.
 

peach

EOG Veteran
Re: John Kelly's Record for EOG posts

99% of us won't touch that number over that sample size
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Long time since the last update, JK has stayed about the same:

EOG Best Bets thread: 938-868-42, -32.63u

Cumulative EOG radio and posted picks since Dec. 2010: 1607-1481-64, -43.87u.

All-time, overall EOG record very close to breakeven through May 4, 2021: 1803-1620-70, 52.67%, +3.31u
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Up three units after nearly 3,500 plays?

That's not going to pay for the care of my enlarged prostate over the next 3-5 years.

Just kidding.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Eager for the 2021 WNBA season to start May 14.

And that's no joke.

This is the 25th WNBA season.

I like the logo the league created to celebrate 25 years.

1620448999049.png
 
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