Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

waco

EOG Dedicated
#41
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Very disapointing at 3/2 but we got POOL 2 to look forward to
 
#43
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

imo it will not..check derby day and add up the eventual "field" horses that happen to make the field (most will be 25-1 longshots+ ..add up those odds and compare to 3/2....
And that's based on what? You have absolutely no idea whether that'll turn out to be true or not. Neither does anyone else.

Just as an example, Big Brown (one of the heavier Derby favorites in recent memory) was a member of the Pool One field. To pre-suppose that any horse not among the 23 indivual entries in early February will automatically be a longshot 3 months from now is close-minded, to say the least. That's part of the beauty of the Pool One field entry, it's liable to wind up incredibly strong come raceday. Every year will be different, obviously. But i'll go out on a limb and say that the Field will be reasonably strong come raceday in any given year. You really can't go too far wrong. It's certainly a better play than any of the other 23 entries, that much i know for sure.

Now, there will always be times when you can jump in your Wayback Machine and say "Such and Such was big value at 23/1 (or whatever)", but that's Monday Morning quarterbacking and nothing else. And it always rubs me the wrong way when Churchill or the DRF point to those prices as a way of legitimizing this thing. Speaking of which, i was disappointed to read an article in today's DRF (with the front-page headline of "Value Play") suggesting that the Sham winner (or the also-mentioned Fed Biz) represented value in the 20/1 range. Three months before the race. It also referred to them as "longshots", and lemme tellya, 20/1 is nowhere near a "longshot" price this far out from the race. Not even Union Rags would deserve to be that low (nevermind the fact that you'd probably have guys knocking people over to get down on him at that price). FWIW, i grabbed the new Caesars Palace sheet late last week to check the price on Fed Biz, who had previously been unlisted (don't ask me how). He had been added to the new sheet @ 40/1, and i didn't even bother taking that price (assuming it was still available) after Fed Biz won big again on Thursday afternoon. And i happen to like Fed Biz quite a bit at this point. Might turn into a pretty good price at some point down the line, but right now, i can't justify taking it.

PS - After his 5 length loss last week, Caesars DROPPED Hansen down to 3/1 (from an already-insane 4/1). I've seen some incredibly bad prices on Derby sheets before, but that is arguably the worst one i've ever seen. It's amazing the gall (or just plain cluelessness) some of these places have when posting horse futures. You'd never catch them posting the Packers @ -1000 to win the Super Bowl (before the season starts), but it's basically the same thing. Just ridiculous.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#44
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

If nearly all 23 individual entries are underlays at the current price (and I think that's the case 12 weeks from the Derby), then the obvious value lies in the field entry.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
#45
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

You're probably right, and are most likely to get beaten only if one of the horses in the pool turns out to be a freak. Pool 2 is soon enough, that I still think you can jump in on "None of the above" and get better value.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#46
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

You're probably right, and are most likely to get beaten only if one of the horses in the pool turns out to be a freak. Pool 2 is soon enough, that I still think you can jump in on "None of the above" and get better value.
the horses on that list will contain the top 3 choices in the Derby at least.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#47
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

If nearly all 23 individual entries are underlays at the current price (and I think that's the case 12 weeks from the Derby), then the obvious value lies in the field entry.
Sigh.
Value based on what? Based on that specific pool? Maybe, but of course it's probable none of the 24 entries has any value including the field. It's kinda been the point trying to be made here. Just because it's better than the other 23 bets, doesn't mean it's a good bet.

DC sited the most extreme example you can find, a 2.4/1 favorite in the 2008 Derby and the 4th and 5th choices (Eight Belles and Gayego) not in pool #1. And even with that extreme scenario should have been easy enough to get better than 3/2 with the 8 horses that weren't listed in Pool 1 on Derby Day.
 
#48
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Sigh.
Value based on what? Based on that specific pool? Maybe, but of course it's probable none of the 24 entries has any value including the field. It's kinda been the point trying to be made here. Just because it's better than the other 23 bets, doesn't mean it's a good bet.

DC sited the most extreme example you can find, a 2.4/1 favorite in the 2008 Derby and the 4th and 5th choices (Eight Belles and Gayego) not in pool #1. And even with that extreme scenario should have been easy enough to get better than 3/2 with the 8 horses that weren't listed in Pool 1 on Derby Day.
Exactly. And it's what try has been trying to say. Some people just love the gamble though, math be damned. That's why the casinos still have the lights on.
 
#49
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Who said anything about taking 3/2? For the record, i didn't bet the field. I was hoping to get 5/2, probably a pipe dream but you never know. The field did get as high as 8/5 at one point on Sunday, but that was the best price i saw.

Also for the record, i agree that none of the entries had value. A case can be made for the field @ 3/2, i guess, but i don't think you have any margin for error at that price. I do believe it was far-and-away the best option in that pool, however.


Same point you're trying to make about the KDFW, i've made several times in the past regarding the Kentucky Derby (or Breeders Cup) futures in Las Vegas. Just because such-and-such horse is 20/1 at one hotel while he's listed @ 10/1 everywhere else, it in no way means that 20/1 is a good bet. What's important is NOT the price at other locales, but simply the horse's actual chance of winning the race (and those two things are completely unrelated). And as we've discussed before, when dealing with this kind of timeframe, you need to start from the Derby and then work your way backwards to include the time involved & number of prep races remaining, so that you can try and account for the risk of injury, deterioration of form, potential distance limitations, potential lack of graded earnings, not to even mention your basic race-day stuff like a bad post draw or severe traffic trouble in that 20-horse cavalry charge. Oh, and a potentially sloppy track to boot. You know how i feel about that stuff (regarding acceptable future prices), and i shouldn't have to tell you. The Pool One field is obviously very different though, because you're insulated against injury and form reversal to a large degree (in fact, you tend to benefit from it).

As for the Big Brown example, sure it was extreme but i was trying to make a point that you could potentially wind up with the favorite (perhaps even several of them). Someone else in the thread suggested that you'll end up with longshots-only, which is improbable in most years and therefore not a valid argument, imo. And as for that extreme example (just looking at it in a bubble), i'm no math guy, but i have to think it'd be pretty damn hard to Dutch yourself into 3/2 on the Pool One field particpants when one of then is going off at less than 5/2. You'd know more about that than i would, i'm sure, but just on the face of it, it strikes me as highly unlikely. Not when you have 7 other horses to account for, in addition to the 2/1 favorite.


PS - In a somewhat related matter, have you heard anything about FLF galloping? I thought i saw a post from his owner (Oscar Pena) saying that he was "now working for the SA Derby". Since he obviously hasn't made an appearance on the worktab, i thought that might've meant he had recen't begin galloping. It might also mean that he suffered an injury (seems obvious at this point, btw) and will now try to make it back in time for the SA Derby (i.e. early April). Probably a moot point, but i retain some interest in the colt. Not many prospective Derby contenders can say they've already won at distances up to 1 1/2 miles. I don't believe Peruvian graded (group) earnings count towards the Derby, though i could be wrong because the European/Dubai races obviously count. So even if he does turn up in the SA Derby, if that's his first race back then he would probably have to hit the exacta in order to make it into the race (coincidentally, the same position Big Brown was in when he entered the gate for the Florida Derby some years back). Again, just another example of how important graded earnings are. If you don't have them, you aren't getting in. No matter how talented you might be.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
#50
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

the horses on that list will contain the top 3 choices in the Derby at least.
But the price will be much higher and it's only three weeks from now. I'm certain that the top three post time favorites will not all be on this list.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#51
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

In a somewhat related matter, have you heard anything about FLF galloping
Trying to get any info on this horse is resembling an episode out of Luck........he's not going to prep before the SA derby, that will be his 1st race in NA. Not uncommon for long gallops instead of workouts outside the states and maybe Drysdale doesn't want to change things too much. But he's got to officially record a few here before he can run, so don't know when/if that starts.

As I was typing this Baffert just tweeted Secret Circle and Castaway will be running in the Southwest at OP.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#53
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

If nearly all 23 individual entries are underlays at the current price (and I think that's the case 12 weeks from the Derby), then the obvious value lies in the field entry.
not true there are no overlays in the 23 individual becuase as is all races the track take out takes the starch out of them...But this year due to the field being way overbet there is there is perhaps 2-3 overlays or at least even par bets on that list...
 
#54
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Trying to get any info on this horse is resembling an episode out of Luck........he's not going to prep before the SA derby, that will be his 1st race in NA. Not uncommon for long gallops instead of workouts outside the states and maybe Drysdale doesn't want to change things too much. But he's got to officially record a few here before he can run, so don't know when/if that starts.
ty
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#55
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Since the KDFW began in 1999, the mutuel field in Pool 1 has been the correct bet in six of the 13 Pool 1 wagers.

The lowest return was $5.60 in 2004.

No disrespect to try3 or 2W2P2S or Weinke, but I maintain the obvious value lies in the mutuel field.

The player who wagers $10,000 annually on the field bet (and this year he wagered $20,000 here in Las Vegas) knows what he's doing.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#56
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Since the KDFW began in 1999, the mutuel field in Pool 1 has been the correct bet in six of the 13 Pool 1 wagers.

The lowest return was $5.60 in 2004.

No disrespect to try3 or 2W2P2S or Weinke, but I maintain the obvious value lies in the mutuel field.

The player who wagers $10,000 annually on the field bet (and this year he wagered $20,000 here in Las Vegas) knows what he's doing.
the first 4 years or so the fIELD was underbet in this pool and was decenet. Last 11 years a bad bet overall....but it has a fun factor. no disrespect to the player who tossed in 20,000 k has little clue at all...at least on this specific wager..he has a bad underlay..the field player should have just played the field horses derby day and he would have really cashed with war emblem, Animal king, giacomo and mine that bird for example while losing 6 or 7 other horses at the same time derby day......but for big brown it worked out well that is for sure.

i like the wager overall as it gets some Derby passion going...
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#57
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Betting the field in Pool 1 and betting the field horses on Derby Day are two different bets.

I love the five-figure wager in Pool 1.

The aggressive bettor also places the wager at the right time to dissuade others from joining him.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#58
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

the first 4 years or so the fIELD was underbet in this pool and was decenet. Last 11 years a bad bet overall....but it has a fun factor. no disrespect to the player who tossed in 20,000 k has little clue at all...at least on this specific wager..he has a bad underlay..the field player should have just played the field horses derby day and he would have really cashed with war emblem, Animal king, giacomo and mine that bird for example while losing 6 or 7 other horses at the same time derby day......but for big brown it worked out well that is for sure.

i like the wager overall as it gets some Derby passion going...
Giacomo was actually in Pool 1.......Mine that Bird a good example. On Derby day, 54.2% of starters since the inception of the pool have been represented in the field bet. 2009 was a bit odd as 14 out of the 19 starters were covered in "all others" Pool 1 (I Want Revenge scratched Derby day making it a field of 19). So spreading the $10,000 among those 14 thins you out a bit. None of the 14 bet much though amazingly, and most like the winner longshots. $306 for every $1 tri spread and topping the lowest odds horses with the extra still leaves a $2 tri with Mine That Bird wheeled...that would have returned $41,500. The $10,000 field bet at 9/5 returned $29,000.

If Giacomo had been part of the field, getting $30K back from your $10K wager wouldn't have been cause for joy, but rather motivation for suicide.

It's a guessing game at this point, but I certainly wouldn't want $20K tied up at 3/2 on Derby day, even if it turns to be the best bet for this years derby. Can't argue too much with those that feel it represents value though at 3/2...historically it's producing.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#60
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

I think the KDFW Pool 1 bet is a great way for the horseplayer to assume the position of the house.
 

Herbie

EOG Addicted
#61
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

Interesting read with JK and Discreet Cat arguing the value is on the field and tryX3 arguing the opposite...

Trytrytry I noticed one of the horses you mentioned you liked went off long... Did you hit it or any of the other horses in the pool?
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#64
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

If nearly all 23 individual entries are underlays at the current price (and I think that's the case 12 weeks from the Derby), then the obvious value lies in the field entry.
If Bode wins, next year come Pool 1 time you tell me again the guy was "right" betting the pool as 3/2 offered value. What I've been trying to explain and gave examples of, is right now if somebody offered you 3/2 on the following list, I'd hope you'd pass:

Daddy Long Legs
Optimizer
Bodemeister
Trinniberg
Daddy Nose Best
Prospective Cause
Went the Day Well
Done Talking

The last on the list is actually a horse in the Derby, not me declaring I'm finished with this thread. ;-)
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#65
Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

An unusual injury-free year for Derby contenders.

Done talking.
 
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