Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Keynesian exuberance for the powers of stimulating demand or the 'consumer' has been in vogue since the 1930s. It is sheer nonsense which is taught in every school across the globe. Keynesian economics is little more than intellectual pablum used by those in power or by a technocratic and largely illiterate elite to increase their power; enhance government; print money and otherwise destroy normal economic relationships. Keynes' theory, so believed by professors is in practice a disaster.

Keynes was a left wing wall flower and a member of the deranged Bloomsbury group of inter-World War British pacifists. He was an arrogant theorist who truly believed in the magical elixir of large government and in the technocratic dream of controlling billions of personal, business and economic decisions, to programmatically construct a perfect world order. Keynes gave intellect and jargon filled cover and rationale to politicians and demagogues who would cite his book, 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money', to justify state interventionism.

According to this theory which has failed in practice every time it has been tried, governments can stimulate an economy through granting consumers, workers and businesses sums of borrowed money. This is termed a 'stimulus'. This debt or current deficit financing stimulus, is then paid back or retired, when the economy strengthened by consumer spending and business investment, produces a surplus of tax revenues. The stimulus is needed, so argued Keynes, to overcome business cycles, downturns and unexpected events which would decrease jobs, increase unemployment and impact state revenues. By macro and micro-managing economic and production processes, the state, so thought Keynes, would avoid cyclical variations and ensure that the lowest level of unemployment could be maintained. Government power was thus indispensable to full employment and income equality.

There are many problems with such a counter-rational plan to economic management. None of Keynes' core assumptions make sense when they are analysed either separately or together. Business cycles have historically been caused by governments, and they are usually a response to government policies to increase the size of the state through trade barriers, higher taxation, more spending, more regulation and programs of fear and compliance. The Great Depression, the 70s Stagflation and the current financial crisis are all obvious examples of this fact.

Government causing economic malaise would appear to mean that government programs are not the solutions required to either get out of an economic downturn, nor to prevent future derailments from taking place.

The main impact of Keynesian economic stimuli is to increase debt; raise future tax rates and distort the normal functionings of economic markets and personal and corporate decision making. Governments choose winners and confirm losers. The winners will include companies which get bailed out, those receiving welfare, unions and others having their jobs protected, those receiving redistributed incomes and those paid off for political support. The losers invariably include firms both domestic and international who want fair and free trade; higher income families; small businesses who are classified under high income categories; future generations who must pay off the debt; and consumers who pay a higher costs for all products and services.

Under Keynesian philosophy, government and technocrats assume the role of God. Given the poverty of God heads throughout history, this is probably not a noble supposition to support.

Brian Reidl from Heritage Institute wrong an excellent article recently on the fallacy that government spending, or what is termed Keynesian deficit spending, run by God-heads, is beneficial (see Reidl
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/authors.aspx?GUID=220a4261-b3c8-4338-a5be-62bcc3f3b8d3). In this article he makes the following important points about demand-side management and the Keynesian fetish for economic control.

?Government cannot create new purchasing power out of thin air. If Congress funds new spending with taxes, it is simply redistributing existing income. If Congress instead borrows the money from domestic investors, those investors will have that much less to invest or to spend in the private economy. If Congress borrows the money from foreigners, the balance of payments will adjust by equally reducing net exports, leaving GDP unchanged. Every dollar Congress spends must first come from somewhere else.

This does not mean that government spending has no economic impact at all. Government spending often alters the consumption of total demand, such as increasing consumption at the expense of investment.?

When stimulus packages are created the money has to come from someone via taxes, or be printed. Both are net negatives to the economy. Economic growth only results from producing more goods and services (not from redistributing existing income), and that requires productivity growth and growth in the labor supply as productivity not only increases wealth but also wages and wage opportunities.

Historically of course government spending has reduced productivity and long-term economic growth due to some obvious reasons. As government spends more it raises taxes which reduces profits, productivity and wage and job creation. As government incurs more debt through stimulus and demand side packages it reduces the incentive to produce and displaces money by removing the more productive private sector from the economic equation and replacing it with a far less effective state dollar, taxed or printed on government printing press. The inefficiency of government policy in health, housing, education, and general industry are obvious creating huge costs which must be borne by ordinary taxpayers ? ineffective solutions at a higher price one can say.

And as Reidl sources and proves:

?Mountains of academic studies show how government expansions reduce economic growth:

1.Public Finance Review reported that "higher total government expenditure, no matter how financed, is associated with a lower growth rate of real per capita gross state product."

2.The Quarterly Journal of Economics reported that "the ratio of real government consumption expenditure to real GDP had a negative association with growth and investment," and "growth is inversely related to the share of government consumption in GDP, but insignificantly related to the share of public investment."

3.A Journal of Macroeconomics study discovered that "the coefficient of the additive terms of the government-size variable indicates that a 1% increase in government size decreases the rate of economic growth by 0.143%."

4.Public Choice reported that "a one percent increase in government spending as a percent of GDP (from, say, 30 to 31%) would raise the unemployment rate by approximately .36 of one percent (from, say, 8 to 8.36 percent)."

It is obvious that Keynesian economics and demand management are tools for fools. Wealth, a better society, a cleaner world, a higher level of development is not coerced by government. It only occurs when free people operating in free markets are allowed to interact and determine the price and supply of various goods and services. Government involvement ensures the opposite and is a theory mired in cultish theological absurdity.

By: C. Read

Article Directory: Article Dashboard Directory | Submit Articles | Search Find Free Content | Author Submission

Learn more about why Keynesian economics won?t work and free markets is the answer at Craig Read.
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Keynesian economics belongs on the same ash heap as statism, socialism, communism, feudalism, and fascism. Oh, and Darwinism.

What a colossal DISASTER these pseudo-intellectual Keynsian 'progressives' have unleashed on modern civilization. 2348ji23e
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Keynesian Economics Is Wrong: Bigger Government Is Not "Stimulus":

<iframe width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VoxDyC7y7PM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

The cult of Keynesianism in a nutshell:

Take a bucket of water from the deep end of the pool, pour it into the shallow end, and viola!! You've raised the water level in the swimming pool!

:flatten
 

tank

EOG Dedicated
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

This is a distraction to keep people away from Obama's eligibility right?:LMAO:LMAOGod I love birthtards!!
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Stimulus Spending: Predictable Total Failure

Posted by Dave Blount at March 30, 2011 6:17 AM

After two years, let's check and see what we got for our money regarding Comrade Obama's budget-busting "stimulus" spending:
Nearly a trillion dollars have been poured into the U.S. economy, courtesy of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Result? Unemployment has barely budged, housing prices continue to fall in many markets and more mortgages slip into foreclosure.
How can this be happening when so many people in government assure us that government spending spurs the economy? Because it's not true. For government to pour money into the economy, it must take money out of the economy in the first place. To hand out money, government must first take money from taxpayers.​
It's like moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket. It doesn't make us any wealthier. What it really stimulates is more government, not more economic activity.​
In the short term, "stimulus" spending does nothing but enrich the crony capitalist collaborators of our bureaucratic overlords. Long term, it hurts the economy by driving up inflation and causing Big Government — the source of our economic problems — to grow even bigger.

Democrats love Keynesian economics because this long-discredited ideology offers a justification to steal massive amounts of our money and spend it in a never-ending drunken binge. But if government spending had a beneficial effect, we would all be riding as high on the gravy train as public sector union members. After all,
When George W. Bush became president, total federal spending was $1.8 trillion. When he left office eight years later in January 2009, federal spending topped $3.4 trillion.
Since then, government spending has exploded at a rate likely to bankrupt the country within a few years. Yet no beneficial effects are to be seen.

If they really wanted to improve the economy rather than loot us and grow their power, our statist rulers know just what to do:
The way to end this recession is for government to cut spending, shrink the deficit, end corporate welfare, stop using taxpayer money to bail out politically connected businesses and industries, and reduce regulations that make investing for the future more difficult.
That is, Big Government needs to acknowledge that it is the problem, not the solution, and get out of the way. Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

1.9 Million Fewer Americans Have Jobs Today Than When Obama Signed Stimulus

Tuesday, June 14, 2011
By Matt Cover

In this Nov. 4, 2010 photo, a sign turning away potential job-seekers is seen outside of a construction site in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

(CNSNews.com) Twenty-eight months after Congress passed President Obama’s signature economic stimulus law, and nearly one year after he declared the summer of 2010 to be “Recovery Summer,” 1.9 million fewer people are employed.

In February 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 141.7 million people were employed. By the end of May 2011 – the last month for which data are available – that number had fallen to 139.8 million, a difference of 1.9 million.

While the number of people with jobs has increased slightly from its low point during the recession – 137.9 million in December 2009 – those 1.9 million jobs have been lost despite $800 billion in stimulus spending.

This does not mean that the economy is not creating jobs, but rather that it is not creating jobs fast enough to keep up with a combination of layoffs and people entering the job market for the first time.

In a Washington Post op-ed, former White House chief economist Larry Summers noted that the percentage of the population that has a job has not improved, even though the economy is technically in recovery.

“From the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2011, the U.S. economy’s growth rate averaged less than 1 percent a year,” Summers wrote. “The fraction of the population working remains almost exactly at its recession trough, and recent reports suggest that growth is slowing.”

White House chief economic advisor Larry Summers. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)

The fraction of the population with a job has in fact fallen in the 28 months since Congress passed the stimulus – down from 60.3 percent in February 2009 to 58.4 percent in May 2011.

The economy cannot create jobs fast enough to keep pace with layoffs and recent high school and college graduates seeking employment. If the trend continues, as Summers notes may happen, the economy will suffer further in the future as college graduates delay entry into the labor force, reducing their lifetime productivity.

“Beyond the lack of jobs and incomes, an economy producing below its potential for a prolonged interval sacrifices its future,” argued Summers.

“Huge numbers of new college graduates are moving back in with their parents this month because they have no job or means of support.”

As both Summers and the BLS data make clear, the economy is not creating new jobs fast enough to make up for layoffs and new graduates, calling into question Obama’s oft-repeated claim that the economy is recovering and creating jobs.

In fact, by citing figures from the first quarter of 2006, Summers is understating the economy’s poor performance. According to BLS data, the number of people with jobs peaked at 146.6 million in November 2007, meaning that over the entire recession – which officially began in December 2007 – the number of people employed has fallen by 6.8 million.

 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Geithner on TV – “Keynesian economics has failed”



Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 07/10/2011 15:30 -0400


Some refreshing words from the Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner this morning on Meet the Press. He had this to say: (15:20 into this clip) Note: An 8 second clip of Tim's words: Link
We don’t have the ability (because of the overhang in housing and the problems in the financial sector) to artificially engineer a stronger recovery.
Imagine that! Geithner acknowledges what I (and many others) have felt all along. The structural issues in the economy trump the government’s ability to engineer a recovery.

The Fed has taken extraordinary measures on the monetary front. Since 2009 we have had $1.2 trillion of fiscal stimulus measures as well. We have had TARP and the bailouts of Fannie and Freddie. But the evidence is clear that it has not worked. Unemployment is today near a record and the more important measure, U6, is at 16.2% (about where it was a year ago) Nothing that has been done has moved the needle.


Geithner might have put it differently. He could have really put it on the line. I would have preferred that he had said:

"Keynesian economics has not worked. At best, it has given us a small reprieve from the restructuring that must happen. Our government can’t fight the forces of economics any better than we can fight the forces of nature. Large stimulus measures will not bring the desired results. We have to suck it up and take some pain. We can’t go on spending money that we don’t have to fix a problem that can’t be fixed. If we tried, it would be just be a waste of time and precious financial resources. We can no longer afford to throw good money after bad."

Of course Tim was not as blunt as that. But read his words. It means the same thing. Sorry Keynesians, I know the truth hurts.

 

markinsac

EOG Dedicated
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

This thread is an example of what crank can do. Let's hope he can kick the hapit.
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

The cult of Keynesianism in a nutshell:

Take a bucket of water from the deep end of the pool, pour it into the shallow end, and viola!! You've raised the water level in the swimming pool!

:flatten



Thirst

Posted on Jul 7, 2011

By Mr.Fish

Cartoon from:
Mr. Fish: Thirst - Mr. Fish's Cartoons - Truthdig
Obama?s hypocrisy on the corporate jet tax loophole

By Patrick Martin
11 July 2011

In his press conference last week calling on congressional Republicans to agree to token tax increases on the wealthy in the name of ?shared sacrifice,? President Barack Obama mentioned the elimination of special tax treatment for corporate jets no less than six times in the space of 45 minutes. He returned to the subject repeatedly in ensuing days.

This harping on the corporate jet tax loophole is a red herring that only underscores the cynicism and hypocrisy of Obama and the Democratic Party.

The campaign finance watchdog group MapLight noted last week that two lobbies which favor the tax windfall for corporate jets, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association and the National Business Aviation Association, have given large sums to congressmen of both parties, with a slight edge, but only slight, to the Republicans. From 2001 to 2010, the two groups gave $225,060 to Democrats and $245,500 to Republicans.

Companies producing aircraft parts and equipment for small planes gave $1,286,906 to Democrats and $1,702,497 to Republicans, while the airplane manufacturers gave $1,010,638 and $1,434,510 respectively. Airport and aviation service facilities gave $644,005 to the Democrats and $575,932 to the Republicans.

As these figures demonstrate, both parties are in the pockets of the corporate jet industry, just as they serve the interests of the capitalist class as a whole.

Excerpts from:
Obama?s hypocrisy on the corporate jet tax loophole


 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

"I do not believe in the power of the State to plan and enforce. No matter how numerous are the committees they set up or the ever-growing hordes of officials they employ or the severity of the punishments they inflict or threaten, they can't approach the high level of internal economic production achieved under free enterprise. Personal initiative, competitive selection, and profit motive corrected by failure and the infinite processes of good housekeeping and personal ingenuity, these constitute the life of a free society. It is this vital creative impulse that I deeply fear the doctrines and policies of the socialist government has destroyed. Nothing that they can plan and order and rush around enforcing will take its place. They have broken the main spring and until we get a new one, the watch wil not go. Set the people free. Get out of the way and let them make the best of themselves. I am sure that this policy of equalizing misery and organizing society--instead of allowing diligence, self-interest and ingenuity to produce abundance--has only to be prolonged to kill this British Island stone dead."

-- Sir Winston Churchill
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

To preserve [the] independence [of the people,] we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses, and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account, but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers."
--Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kercheval, 1816. ME 15:39

"I deem [this one of] the essential principles of our government and consequently [one] which ought to shape its administration:... The honest payment of our debts and sacred preservation of the public faith."
--Thomas Jefferson: 1st Inaugural, 1801. ME 3:322

"I sincerely believe... that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
--Thomas Jefferson to John Taylor, 1816. ME 15:23

"[With the decline of society] begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia [war of all against all], which some philosophers observing to be so general in this world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man. And the fore horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression." --Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kercheval, 1816. ME 15:40
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Obama?s Keynesian Economic Plan WILL End in a Great Depression and a One Term Presidency


The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. And by that definition, the entire Obama Administration and the Progressive movement have proven themselves quite insane. Keynesian Economics has a perfect track record: 100% failure. Worse, the Obama Administration has twisted and convoluted the Keynesian Economic model to fit their ideological social agenda which is far more radical than any previous attempt to make this failed theory work.

The recession has not ended. We are not in a recovery. What has happened is that the Obama Administration has dumped stimulus after stimulus into the economy using borrowed money and made claim that the temporary boost in the stimulated sectors of the economy was evidence of a recovery. The upticks have been nothing more than an artificially produced result of spending tax money borrowed from the future. And as soon as the stimulus spending ends, the uptick returns to negative growth. And worse, we have nothing to show but more debt.

Cash for Clunkers used borrowed money to stimulate the Auto Industry. As soon as the program ended, the sales fell below the level they were prior to the stimulus. And we have more debt.

First Time Home Buyers were rewarded for buying homes at higher than they should have been prices, and now many of those buyers are under water on their mortgages. Many have now gone into foreclosure and America is left with more debt.

Mortgage foreclosures were halted by the Obama Administration and the courts last October. Banks have been prevented from recovering losses, which further erodes the stability of banks. Now that foreclosures have resumed in a lot of cases, the temporary halt had a net effect simply delaying the inevitable and compressing the number of foreclosures into shorter time. The net result has flooded the housing market with a glut of inventory and forced falling housing prices to decline even more. And this has led to the current double dip recession in the housing market.

According to The Independent ?The ailing US housing market passed a grim milestone in the first quarter of this year, posting a further deterioration that means the fall in house prices is now greater than that suffered during the Great Depression.?

What the Obama Administration has been trying (and failing) to do is akin to spinning multiple plates and trying to keep them all spinning to keep them from crashing down to the ground. But these plates, just like the economy, will not keep going without a tremendous and sustained effort.

And the inevitable result will be the crash you are trying to avoid in the first place. With spinning plates, you just become tired after a while. But balancing an economy manually and artificially is expensive and makes the inevitable crash all the more violent.

The ?bubble? in the housing market was created by extremely low interest rates making money readily available to buyers. While buying a home is the American Dream, too much of a good thing is never a good idea. And just for good measure, the Sub-Prime market exacerbated the problem by giving loans to people who really couldn?t reasonably be expected to pay the money back. With the help of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, these toxic loans were bundled together with more attractive investments into packages that could be easily traded. But as the loan defaults grew, banks were left holding a lot of really bad paper.

Enter the Federal Reserve! They bought up a lot of the toxic assets with borrowed or printed money. Some of the banks were bailed out by this, but the game had completely changed. Many of the ?good? loans were on houses that had declined in value so much that people owed more than the house was worth.

The Federal Reserve and the Obama Administration noticed that banks were not lending, people were not really that interested in borrowing due to the uncertain economic conditions, and any hopes of a recovery were fading. Despite trillions of dollars pumped into the economy, in accordance with Keynesian Theory, the economy should be primed and growing. Yet it was not. One major flaw with the Keynesian Theory is that any spending stimulates the economy. But the truth is, when the government does the spending (stimulus) or provides the money for people to spend (?rebates?) it is simply taking money from other sources, or in the case of Obama, borrowing from the future. But his plan has failed and we are now in the future that Obama expected to be much better. He has moved money from one pocket to the other, and borrowed massive amounts of money. Yet the economy does not grow.

This artificial stimulation creates an illusion of economic activity. But as soon as the injection of money stops, the activity subsides.

So, what is a good Keynesian to do? The stimulus only stimulated until the money ran out. It didn?t ?prime? the economic pump. It did not become the perpetual motion machine they expected.

How can the Obama Administration get the economy going again? If we go into a double dip recession, or a Depression, the Democrats will defeated in the upcoming elections like never before. A bad economy in 2012 could see super majorities for Republicans at unstoppable levels, and a Republican in the White House. And nothing they are doing is working.

In a panic, The Fed decided to buy bank bonds by printing money, just to get the banks to start lending again. (Ok, they don?t really ?print? the money. They just pretend it exists, which is probably worse.) They called it Quantitative Easing. It was nothing new. Japan had been using QE for years now, with absolutely no results except massive debts. But just because it has never worked, the Obama Administration expected different results this time. (Recall the definition of insanity.)

So, although it failed for Japan, The Federal Reserve dumped $1.7 Trillion into the desperate move. And did it work? Well, not exactly. Housing values continued to fall, foreclosures continued to rise and that stubborn unemployment number just refuses to budge. Worse, printing money, even virtual money, has a nasty side effect. Inflation. So, when QE1 was all done and there were no measurable effects, the only logical thing to do is try again and expect different results. At least that is the pattern for this administration. So, along comes QE2. Another $600 Billion and where did it put us? A second recession in the housing market and a sharp decline in the dollar, which is part of the reason oil is increasing in price.

QE2 will end on June 30, 2011 with the same result as QE1 and the Japanese attempt. Failure.

So what is next? At best, Quantitative Easing has had the same effect as a stimulus. As long as the money keeps flowing in, the economy bumps along, not really picking up, just limping down the shoulder. When QE2 ends, the economy will take a dip. Unemployment will start to go back up, as we are already seeing, and the economy will officially begin 2012 in a second recession, making a ?Hope and Change? and ?Yes we can? second term presidency for Obama a total impossibility.

There is no doubt in my mind that this president will order the Federal Reserve to do a third round of easing (read the insanity definition again).

But this time, not expecting it will work, but hoping in desperation that the economy will just tread water and he can fool the people until November, 2012.

And then what?

More regulation, higher taxes on the rich, more social programs and exponentially growing debt?

We are in for a lot of economic pain. Obama?s policies have done nothing more than artificially keep the markets from bottoming out and self-correcting. The only way the economy recovers is to allow it to make the corrections Obama has prevented. Now, we must still take the fall and we come out with far more crushing debt than had we just allowed the markets to correct on their own.

Eventually, we have to let the plates stop spinning and then pick up the pieces and move on. It is proven beyond the shadow of doubt that Keynesian Economics will never work.
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

The modern radical progressive axiom is if you can't do something substantive to correct a problem turn the money hose on it. It demonstrates just how clueless our self-righteous government overlords have become because, according to the cult of socialism, all problems are "solved" with the government hose. Just spend two minutes listening to the Kenyan Commie spew his class warfare bullshit and you can hear John Maynard Keynes' perverted mind from the grave.

Speaking of perverted, the architect of this radical egalitarianism dressed up as 'economics', was a vile sodomite who used innocent little boys and passed them around to his vile sodomite friends. Read about it here:

Keynes at Harvard - Introduction

Keynes was characterized by his male sweetheart, Lytton Strachey, as “A liberal and a sodomite, an atheist and a statistican.” His particular depravity was the sexual abuse of little boys. In communications to his homosexual friends, Keynes advised that they go to Tunis, “where bed and boy were also not expensive.” As a sodomistic pedophiliac, he ranged throughout the Mediterranean area in search of boys for himself and his fellow socialists. Taking full advantage of the bitter poverty and abysmal ignorance in North Africa, the Middle East, and Italy, he purchased the bodies of children prostituted for English shillings.*

Such Leftist hypocrites then, as now, issued loud denunciations against poverty, imperialism, and capitalist immorality. However, for their own degenerate purposes, they eagerly sought out the worst pockets of destitution and backwardness to satisfy their perverted purposes through sexual enslavement of youngsters. While traveling in France and the United States they complained among themselves of the harassment by the police of practicing homosexuals. In degenerate areas of the Mediterranean, on the other hand, they found a pervert’s Utopia where the bodies of children could be purchased as part of a cultured socialist’s holiday
A society which bases it's economic and moral values on a mind as sick and perverted as Keynes, can't help but fall, and fall badly.

I believe the time has come to let the entire modern progressive house of cards collapse under it's own wicked and immoral weight.



The horrific truth is that the Federal Reserve is now engaged in the greatest money-counterfeiting scheme since the Weimar Republic!

Get ready for a depression like nobody has ever seen..and be prepared.

Prepare to pay at LEAST 4-6 times as much for your energy, gasoline and food.

Prepare for record bank failures, mass starvation, soup lines and widespread rioting.

Prepare for a complete collapse of the progressive leviathan state.

Good riddance, and thank God for the Tea Party which will inspire America to rebuild.
 

brucefan

EOG Dedicated
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Your just an Average Joe ,.... Joe

You just dont get it, and should leave these kinds of problems to be solved by professional politicians



<! TOP LEFT STARTS HERE><TT>PRESSURE: MOODY'S PUTS USA ON DOWNGRADE WATCH... <!-- Main headlines links BEGIN -->

<CENTER>

<! MAIN HEADLINE>[FONT=ARIAL,VERDANA,HELVETICA][SIZE=+7] [/SIZE][/FONT]
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:yikess
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

There's absolutely no way to sugarcoat whats coming.

Most likely, a deflationary depression like we've never seen...so, Big Ben will try and inflate.

But that won't work -- it can't. Global wage arbitrage dictates that when prices skyrocket in response to a crushed dollar wages in the US can't rise, because of the competition from low-cost labor overseas.

The end result is a deflationary depression and a collapse when people can't afford to buy what they need anymore. We will just get to it via the attempted inflation route rather than straight deflation, which we'd get if they stopped counterfeiting money.

Thanks to these radical Keynesian progressives brucefan and I have warned y'all about, America is in for a world hurt.



Keynesians should be hanging from trees! :soapbox:
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Articles: The Debt Ceiling Charade

July 14, 2011

The Debt Ceiling Charade


By Monty Pelerin

The circus surrounding the debt ceiling makes interesting theater but all the babble is irrelevant. How the debt ceiling is eventually resolved only changes the timing and extent of the economic collapse. In that sense, it has no bearing on the ultimate fate of the nation.

But what a spectacle! Politicians fight for political points while blaming the opposition for unreasonableness, cruelty, and wanting the world to end. Journalists keep score as to which side is winning as if they were covering a major sporting event. Economists propose solutions to problems they still don't understand.

The irreverent H.L. Mencken must be chuckling in his grave over this theatre. Politicians are making P.T. Barnum proud with a performance only equaled by Nero and his fiddle.

The debt ceiling will almost certainly be raised although
Gallup suggests only 22% of the public supports such action. This action might prevent some short-term discomfort but only at the expense of longer-term tragedy. Both time frames are explored below.

A Short-Term Perspective

August 2 is the date that Treasury Secretary Geithner estimates the government runs out of money. That apparently is when the federal government exhausts its ability to "steal" from governmental retirement and other sundry accounts. July 22 has been mentioned as the "drop dead" decision point in order to prepare for a government spending scale-back.

August federal government revenues are anticipated to be $172.4 billion; spending, $306.7 billion. This shortfall of $134 billion is no surprise. The monthly shortfall annualized represents a yearly deficit of $1.6 trillion, in line with the deficits of the last two years.

If The Debt Ceiling Is Not Raised

If the debt ceiling is not raised the government will have to cover the shortfall in two ways:

  1. Raise Revenues
  2. Cut Spending
Additional revenues cannot be obtained for the month of August. Nor is it likely revenues could be raised for subsequent near-term months. Thus a decision to not raise the debt ceiling leaves government only the option of cutting spending.

Which payments will be honored if spending must equal revenues? This chart from Zerohedge details August government spending and offers one possibility:

Contrary to much of the wailing, government need not default on its debt obligations unless it chooses to do so. They can easily be met within the expected revenue stream. The claim that we will default on debt payments is a political red herring.

The items below the dotted line could not be paid in the scenario shown above. Other scenarios might differ in terms of priorities, but the fact is that there is a $134-billion shortfall in August and similar shortfalls in subsequent months. All one can do is move items around, an exercise akin to furniture rearrangement on the Titanic.

The quandary shown above is what will likely lead to an increased debt ceiling. That does not solve the country's problem, yet it solves the politicians' problem. It appears to make the problem go away, but only cutting spending will solve the real problem. That hard decision recognizes that resources are limited. It kills the image of government as Santa Claus, something politicians are unwilling to do.

If The Debt Ceiling Is Raised

Raising the debt ceiling may provide a third option. However, the key word is "may." Just because it becomes permissible under US law to borrow more does not mean that markets will cooperate.

There are disturbing signs the US is close to being unable to borrow in credit markets. Our profligacy has been criticized by major buyers of Treasuries like China and Russia. Both maintain they are cutting back their holdings. Allies like Japan and Britain are defending against their own financial apocalypses leaving little money available for anything else.

The profligacy of the US government cannot continue. It cannot continue to spend 42 cents more than every $1.00 it collects. We are potentially close to the point When Lenders Stop Lending, perhaps one event away from a financial catastrophe that will reduce us to Greece.

Markets may have already made a judgment. QE2 ended June 30. For the prior six months the Fed purchased about 75% of US deficit financing. Absent the Fed's involvement, would these bonds have been purchased in traditional credit markets? If so, what interest rates would have to be offered?


A debt ceiling increase does not guarantee a short-term solution to US deficit financing. If others decide they will no longer continue to support our Blanche Du Bois lifestyle, a rise in the debt ceiling is meaningless.

Two factors are likely to prejudice the rest of the world against additional Treasury purchases:

The Political Charade

Congress' behavior has not been confidence-inspiring. Their behavior is more like that of the Keystone Kops rather than responsible borrowers. Even their "aggressive" proposal, expecting to cut spending by $2-4 trillion, is weak.

It is backloaded over a ten-year period and could be changed by any future Congress. It would not even cover the costs of interest rates returning to normal levels. Lawrence B. Lindsey, former economic advisor to President Bush, estimates a return to "normal" interest rates of the past two decades would result in a ten-year cost to government of $4.9 trillion. He used a gradual "ramp-up" in interest rates to estimate costs:
... annual interest expenses would be roughly $420 billion higher in 2014 and $700 billion higher in 2020.
Markets may not cooperate with Mr. Lindsey's scenario. It is not difficult to imagine the US in an accelerating debt death spiral where debt must be added just to service existing debt.

In an upset condition, fear and panic would cause interest rates to spike suddenly. Greek debt, for example, now yields 25-30%, ten times what we currently pay. A mere 5% overall rise from current levels would increase annual government interest cost by $700 billion.

That widens future deficits by a like amount.

Rollover Risk

Adding to the risk of financing the increasing and continuing deficits is rollover risk. Since the days of Robert Rubin's term as Treasury Secretary the government has used primarily short-term funding. While this strategy minimizes the interest expense, it requires frequent refinancing of debt that matures magnifying the risk of being unable to meet obligations.


From Zerohedge is this table of Treasury securities that mature in August:


The US government must fund both its deficits plus the maturing debt. In August that amounts to $600 billion. Can this be done month after month? Not indefinitely! Annualized, the US government must sell new and rollover debt of about $7 trillion this year. Next year the amount will be larger.


New QE

QE3 is almost certainly coming. It is not because it will help the economy. Additional QE is coming because the US government is unable to finance additional deficits at reasonable interest rates. Is that a condition of bankruptcy? Technically no, but it is usually the final event before sovereign bankruptcy.

The US condition is very close to the condition of Greece. They are unable to raise funds in credit markets so request that the European Central Bank "print" money for them. The US government has the Federal Reserve purchase debt when markets refuse to buy. That is money-printing and virtually identical to what Greece is asking for.

Late breaking: As I finish this article Ben Bernanke has admitted that QE3 is likely coming in testimony before the House. Markets have responded dramatically, especially gold.

A Longer-Term Perspective


Assuming the short-term obligations can be navigated with additional debt, the longer-term outlook becomes even gloomier. Buying time, even if possible via a debt ceiling increase, does nothing to solve the real problem. It only adds to it.

In a spiraling debt crisis, time is the enemy. The problem worsens as time passes. This is especially so with regard to the spiraling costs associated with US unfunded liabilities.

These represent the hole in the boat that cannot be plugged.


The total obligations of the US government include the funded debt (about $14.5 trillion) plus the unfunded liabilities associated with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The trustees of these programs estimate the present value of these obligations to be over $100 trillion. These estimates have traditionally trailed reality. Recent deterioration in the funds flowing into these programs and the increase in healthcare costs as a result of ObamaCare is likely to require significant upward revisions in the estimates.

The magnitude of numbers in the billions or trillions is incomprehensible to most. To reduce these numbers to measures that can be understood, the following assumptions are used:

  • The population of the US is 330 million people.
  • The number of households in the US is 150 million.
  • The funded debt of the US government is $14.5 trillion.
  • The total liabilities (funded and unfunded promises) of the US government are $120 trillion.
By converting government obligations to individual and household portions, the numbers become understandable (and unconscionable):

  • Funded Debt: Each individual in the US has been put into debt by government borrowing to the amount of $44,000. Each household, on the same basis, owes $97,000. A family of four, $176,000.
  • Total Liabilities: Each individual's share of total government liabilities is $364,000. Each household owes $800,000. A family of four, $1,456,000.
These numbers represent pro rata shares of government debt. Any personal debt like mortgages, car loans, credit cards, etc. would be on top of these numbers.

The government has promised to pay about $120 trillion. The total net worth of the country is estimated at half of this amount. Thus, the government could confiscate every car, home, savings account, etc. and still not be solvent in terms of what it has borrowed or promised.

That would leave all people and corporations with nothing, including the likelihood of not receiving future healthcare or Social Security as they are now structured.

Summary

Solving the debt ceiling problem in ways floated before the American public is nothing but a political fix. It is not a solution to the underlying insolvency/bankruptcy problem facing the US government. A series of similar political fixes is why we are in this position.

The US government has been insolvent for years. Now bankruptcy is a risk because it is potentially "borrowed out."

QE3 is not a solution. It is currency destruction that leads to eventual hyperinflation which wipes out fixed incomes and most savings. It is nothing more than a temporary political escape from reality. It ensures the ultimate political and economic collapse of the country.
Government has no one to blame but itself for this problem. No one but government is capable of solving it. Unfortunately, government knows how to create problems but not solve them.

The only solution is to pare back government to where it is no longer destructive to the productive sector. It must be defanged and caged.

Immediate cuts of 50% in spending would be my starting point. Additional cuts would follow.
 

brucefan

EOG Dedicated
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

So who is going to be buying 467 billion dollars of debt between now and the end of August for next to nothing in interest? The Fed is rolling over about 60 billion I think in princ. and int this month, and they already said they will use that money to buy bonds ( which of course they said they would never do, but I digress)

but where are these other buyers? And if they buy, why?
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Ron Paul Smacks Down Keynesian Economics -- Predicted the Subprime Mortgage Crisis...in 2003

<iframe width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/INvKPYdTs3E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

"Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.

Despite the long-term damage to the economy inflicted by the government's interference in the housing market, the government's policy of diverting capital to other uses creates a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially-created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged over-investment in housing."

-- Ron Paul in the House Financial Services Committee, September 10, 2003

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul128.html


Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, Keynesians!
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

The Keynesian Fraud

By Monty Pelerin

Keynesian economics is mostly a fraud and always has been. It has little theoretical basis and no empirical support, as I have previous explained.

Our school system has convinced the public that government is the source of most good and can solve all problems. Generations of children have been taught that Franklin Delano Roosevelt "saved" us from the Great Depression. History textbooks proclaim this. Yet Roosevelt's Treasury Secretary clearly contradicted this myth:
We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong ... somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises ... I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... And an enormous debt to boot!
- Henry Morganthau, Treasury Secretary, May 1939

Morganthau's statement is the equivalent of Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner stating that "everything we have done has done no good." When the architect and manager of the program admits it failed, on what basis can honest historians claim that it was successful?

If only current political appointees could be as honest as Morgenthau. But the Keynesian myth is too important and must survive at all costs. It is a source of government power and an inspiration for more government spending. It is a source of many economists' income and prestige. Keynesian economics is the bedrock supporting the entire myth of expansive government. If it is debunked, then so is the twentieth-century conception of government.

In "Keynesian Economics and the Wizard of Oz," Dan Mitchell does an excellent job of exposing what more and more observers believe to be a fraud. Mitchell states:

In the ultimate triumph of theory over reality, the Keynesians say all that matters is the macroeconomic model behind the curtain showing that more government spending leads to more jobs and growth. Consider the recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which claimed that Obama's stimulus created at least one million jobs. As Brian Riedl of the Heritage Foundation noted:

CBO's calculations are not based on actually observing the economy's recent performance. Rather, they used an economic model that was programmed to assume that stimulus spending automatically creates jobs -- thus guaranteeing their result. ...The problem here is obvious. Once CBO decided to assume that every dollar of government spending increased GDP..., its conclusion that the stimulus saved jobs was pre-ordained.

But surely this can't be true, you may be thinking. Our public servants in Washington would not make important policy decisions based on a model that automatically produces a certain result, would they? Peter Suderman of Reason pulls aside the curtain:
... those reports rely on assumption-packed models that effectively predetermine their outcomes; what they say, in essence, is that the stimulus worked because we assume it did. ...

Hypotheses in the physical sciences can be more reasonably tested. Here, data have validity because experiments are repeatable. Yet even in the purest of sciences, political influence can corrupt. The modification of data to support the global warming scam is recent evidence of that.

Economics is a complex behavioral science. Like all behavioral sciences, it is difficult to use data to support or refute hypotheses. Compounding this problem is the political influence on any investigation. Ideology of either the researcher or the grant provider easily influences conclusions.

The behavioral sciences offer great opportunity to "fudge" conclusions. "Rent-an-economists" are available who will provide whatever conclusion you want, including the absurdity that raising the minimum wage increases employment at the lowest wage levels.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower issued an omniscient warning in his Farewell Address that pertains to all research:
The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present -- and is gravely to be regarded.

Any economist who works for the government must compromise his integrity. He becomes part of a political team with political goals. Either he or his scientific integrity must go when it conflicts with these goals.

Milton Friedman recognized this conflict and never would accept a government policy position as a result. He always felt that his advice could be more helpful if it were freely given and not subject to a particular administration's goals. It is a pity that so many second-rate economists seek fame and fortune by becoming political hacks and lackeys.

Monty Pelerin blogs at economicnoise.com.
 
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure

Keynesian Economics and the Wizard of Oz

by Dan Mitchell

When Dorothy and her friends finally reach Oz, they present themselves to the almighty Wizard, only to eventually discover that he is just an illusion maintained by a charlatan hiding behind a curtain. This seems eerily akin to to the state of Keynesian economics. It does not matter that Keynesianism isn?t working for Obama. It does not matter that it didn?t work for Bush, or for Japan in the 1990s, or for Hoover and Roosevelt in the 1930s.




In the ultimate triumph of theory over reality, the Keynesians say all that matters is the macroeconomic model behind the curtain showing that more government spending leads to more jobs and growth. Consider the recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which claimed that Obama?s stimulus created at least one million jobs. As Brian Riedl of the Heritage Foundation noted:

CBO?s calculations are not based on actually observing the economy?s recent performance. Rather, they used an economic model that was programmed to assume that stimulus spending automatically creates jobs ? thus guaranteeing their result. ?The problem here is obvious. Once CBO decided to assume that every dollar of government spending increased GDP?, its conclusion that the stimulus saved jobs was pre-ordained.

But surely this can?t be true, you may be thinking. Our public servants in Washington would not make important policy decisions based on a model that automatically produces a certain result, would they? Peter Suderman of Reason pulls aside the curtain:

?those reports rely on assumption-packed models that effectively predetermine their outcomes; what they say, in essence, is that the stimulus worked because we assume it did. ?That?s especially true when estimating government spending?s productive effects, which is accomplished by plugging numbers into a formula that assumes that government spending produces a multiplier?an increased return for every government dollar spent. In other words, it extrapolates from how much money is put in rather than from what has actually come out. And it does so using a formula that dictates that if money is put in, even more money will come out. According to the CBO?s estimates, depending on how the money is spent, one dollar of government spending can produce total economic activity of up to $2.50. What a deal! ?for all practical purposes, the same multipliers that were used to predict how many jobs would be created are being used to estimate how many jobs have been created.

Interestingly, CBO?s analysis is completely schizophrenic. Its short-run budget numbers are based on free-lunch Keynesianism that assumes deficit-financed government spending boosts growth, while its long-run numbers are driven by an assumption that government borrowing is terrible for growth (which is why CBO actually claims higher taxes boost economic output ? see, for example, Figure 3 of this CBO analysis). It is impossible to know whether the people at CBO actually believe their own work, or whether they are simply trying to please their political paymasters by producing results that (conveniently) match up with political preferences for more spending today and higher taxes tomorrow. You can draw your own conclusions, but keep in mind that CBO is now making the absurd claim that a giant new healthcare entitlement will reduce budget deficits.

But I digress. Let?s now give the defense of Keynesian model. The folks at CBO and other Keynesian who publish estimates that inevitably turn out to be wrong (Mark Zandi comes to mind) will claim that they are right because they are predicting results compared to what otherwise would have happened. So when they claim that Obama?s so-called stimulus created jobs, they are really saying that the economy would have lost even more jobs if the government didn?t spend all that money. The problem with this approach is that there is no independent benchmark, but this is not why Keynesianism is wrong. Indeed, most of the economic profession relies on this kind of ?counterfactual? analysis. Instead, the problem with Keynesianism is that it fails the empirical test. The Keynesians may be good at constructing models, but that doesn?t mean much if the models don?t match the real world. Here?s what Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise said in recent congressional testimony:

?most economists learned in graduate school that models like those relied upon most heavily by the CBO provide nonsensical results. The reason the original large scale Keynesian Macro forecasting models were discarded by most of the profession is that they make a simple logical error in assuming that individuals do not change their behavior based on the expectation of future policy. ?Professor Barro has been one of the primary contributors to the macroeconomic time series literature that has tried to estimate effects from observed economic data, rather than assume affects, as is done by the Keynesian models. ?Barro?s analysis is based on econometric evidence, a reliance on experience.

The CBO analysis is based almost exclusively on speculation within the context of Keynesian Macro models that were discredited decisively in the 1970s. ?Dating at least back to the seminal work of Nelson (1972), economists have known that the empirical time series approach significantly outperforms macroeconomic models in forecasting competitions.

?Ashley (1988) compares data based time series forecasts to those from the large macro forecasters and concludes not only that the time series approach is superior, but that the macro forecasts were so bad that, ?most of these forecasts are so inaccurate that simple extrapolation of historical trends is superior for forecasts more than a couple of quarters ahead.?

?Finally, one should note that this literature, combined with an earlier public finance literature, raises questions concerning the welfare gain associated with short-term increases in spending. ?Browning (1987) finds that the marginal cost ranges widely, between 10% and 300%. Thus, the welfare costs of paying the bill may be greater than the short-term boost to the economy from the most optimistic estimates. This literature would be consistent with Barro?s analysis that suggests the stimulus makes us worse off in the long run.
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Keynesian Economics Is A Failure


TruthInSunshine
Thu, 08/25/2011 - 12:44

...few economists (certainly not Krugman or those openly endorsing inflationary policies) talk about the fact that Keynes became highly sensitive to the absolutely destructive force of inflation, and that KEYNES HIMSELF WARNED AGAINST GOVERNMENT DEBASING OF CURRENCY IN THE STRONGEST WORDS POSSIBLE:
J.M. Keynes on inflation in The Economic Consequences of the Peace (p. 235-6):
 
"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ?profiteers,? who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery."
 
Lenin was certainly right." There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

[URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-cramers-massive-multiday-short-covering-rally-financials
[/URL]
 
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