MLB Week Six Plays...

#1
Just been a frustrating year to date. I still have a long way to go and I will keep chugging along with the foreseeable future. Going with the card tonight and hope to get the week off to a nice start:

Atlanta/NYM Over 7 (-115)- I think the total is set a little low with two offenses that are functioning well tonight even with two very good arms on the hill. Santana has been incredible, but the Braves have scored 4 runs or more in their last five games and hit 28 points higher against LHP. They hit Santana actually quite well last year, they just didn't cash in. The Mets have hit .303 over their last 10 games and I feel confident they can continue that tonight against Lowe. Only takes 3 from each and I think we will get that tonight.

Arizona -123- Arizona has been horrible to date, but I think they are starting to get some value and tonight is one of those occasions. Arroyo has been very poor this year with a 7.15 ERA and balls will also be in play against him and that is a good thing for the strikeout prone Snakes. Garland has finally found himself with a 1.20 WHIP in his last three starts and the Reds have too many holes in their lineup to sustian the production they have put up of late.

Washington +140- I know Johnson has been very good at home, but I think this is giving the Giants too much creidt. The Nats are 3-2 on their road trip and they can hit and have a pretty deep lineup with power options at multiple places. Cabrera has been very poor thus far, but he has the raw stuff to really dominate a Giants lineup that isn't very good. The Giants, much like the Reds, are smoke and mirrors to me so far.

CWS +124- I think this game is giving way too much value to the fact that the Indians are "due" to win. Pavano has been better, but he still has given up 40 hits in just 31 innings and the White Sox should be able to score against him and the very porous Tribe pen. Floyd has struggled of late, but he is still the better pitcher and he has had great success against Cleveland. Until the Tribe bats break out they cannot be trusted to win because of their pitching that is sub-par.
 
#2
Re: MLB Week Six Plays...

The comedic opening to the year continues. The grind continues tonight with these seven plays:

NYM -118- Tough loss for the Mets last night, but I just don't see the Braves sustaining this level of winning with a lineup that is so punchless. Pelfrey has been Pelfrey this year, but he has thrown relatively well in his last three starts and the Mets have won his last 4. Jurrjens is a solid arm, but the Mets bats have been performing well of late and I think they are better apt to deal with the Jurrjens power than the Lowe sinker.

Florida +162- Koronka is obviously nothing special, but Parra is no where near good enough to be favored by this much regardless of the hot streak the Brewers are on. Milwaukee has won just 1 of his 6 starts and he contiually gives up lots of base runners with a WHIP well over 1.50. The Fish have had success on the road and I think they are good value this evening.

Washington +123- The Nats continue to hit and I think they are worth a shot again tonight with their best arm on the hill. Zimmerman has an inflated ERA because of HR problems, but he is pitching in a good park with a lineup that lacks power going against him. Cain has been hot, but so has the Nats lineup with a .299 average in their last 10 games. I will continue to fade the Giants giving lots of juice because I simply don't think they will sustain this success.

CHW +135- The Tribe jumped out to a large lead and hung on last night, but I don't think they can be continued to be giving this much juice because of the runs they yield. Sowers simply doesn't have the stuff to get major league hitters out and the Sox veterans should have much success tonight. Richard pitched well late in the year last year and he has better stuff than does Sowers and I think he is worth a shot tonight at this price.

NYY +126- This actually be a nice spring board game for the Yanks as Burnett comes home to meet Halladay. Burnett has been solid this year with a 1.33 WHIP and the Yanks have won 4 of his 6 starts. Halladay is obvioulsy off to another stellar start, but the Yanks even without Jeter have so much power in the middle of the order. The Jays are solid, but even with Halladay pitching this is an inflated line to me.

KC +115- The Royals call up Hochavar to start tonight and he has been dealing in AAA and I think this is a good matchup for him tonight. The A's have won just 3 of their last 10 games and have hit just .234 during that span. Hochavar is a groundball pitcher and I think that should work well against this lineup. The question for KC is does he get support and I think he will as the Royals are better against RHP and Cahill doesn't look ready for the big leagues with a WHIP over 1.50.

LAA -129- I think the Angels are starting to hit their stride with improved pitching and they are real solid value tonight. The Red Sox are just 7-8 on the road and have now dropped 11 of 15 against the Halos. They are very dinged up right now and now they face a guy in Weaver that holds a 0.71 WHIP at home this year. Masterson may be a stretch as a starter and teams are learning to let his sinker fall out of the zone and he has allowed a lot of runners of late. Real good value here.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#3
Re: MLB Week Six Plays...

Good luck tbf...been a frustrating go for me so far as well. Keep at it and it will turn. :cheers
 
#5
Re: MLB Week Six Plays...

The beat of bad losses kept going last night. Last night the home teams seemed to cash in at the window, but I think the value and likely winners are on the road teams this evening:

St. Louis -112- Even with the injuries that the Cards have in thier lineup I think this is a good matchup for them going against a finesse guy in Ohlendorf for the third time already this season. Ohlendorf is starting to fall in more trouble of late with 4 dingers in his last four starts. Piniero continues to impress because he has walked just 7 guys in 39 innings and he keeps the ball in the park. The Cards are still the better team simply because of Pujols in the middle of their lineup and have a stark SP edge as well.

Philly -102- This should be an interesting game as Wolf comes home to face his old club and he is off to a blazing start while Moyer has been getting crushed of late. The reason I am going with the Phils here are the Dodgers were not a good road team at all last year pre-Manny and I also think that Phillies familiarity with Wolf should bode well for them.

Houston +142- This is mainly a regression play on Marquis and the Astros in a bounce back spot. The Astros are hitting better of late at .284 over their last 10 games and they are quite familar with Marquis seeing him three times last year. Hampton has slowed down considerably of late, but he has done a nice job all year of keeping the ball out of the air and I think that will bode well for him tonight.

NYY -103- Much like the play against Marquis, I don't have faith in Scott Richmond sustaining his early season successes tonight. He has faced a very light schedule so far and I think the Yanks should have success tonight. Pettite is having a solid year with the Yanks winning 4 of his 6 starts and he carries a 3.10 ERA on the road. The Yanks to me are still the beter team and I like them at near even money after a tough loss last night.

TB -110- The Rays continue to struggle, but in game two's where they dropped the first game they are 5-1 on the season. They should hit very well tonight as Bergesen has a 1.75 WHIP and has yielded 27 hits in his last 3 starts in just 16 innings. Niemann has struggled of late, but he has had to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his last two starts. The Rays are still the far better team and it is at most a wash here in SP and I think the Rays are solid value tonight.

Detroit +136- Risky going with Willis in his first start back in the big leagues, but I think he matches up well against the lefty dominated Twins lineup and he should be properly suported with Perkins on the mound. Perkins has lost his last three starts and is carrying a 6.88 ERA over the span. I am starting to think the Tigers are the class of the AL Central and should be worth backing for the foreseeable future.

Seattle +126- I know these teams are moving in opposite directions, but to me this is giving too much credance to that in the line. Washburn is throwing as well as he ever as in Seattle with a 1.04 WHIP thus far this season and he is being opposed by a guy in McCarthy that has a 1.79 WHIP over his last 3 starts. I think the Mariners should score runs tonight and I like them here.

KC +102- The Royals suffered their most lopsided defeat on the young season last night, but I feel they will be a resiliant team this year. They are throwing Bannister who has been very impressive and as long as the balls stay in the yard should continue to pitch as a level to keep the Royals in games. Outman has shown very little in the early going as he has battled control and home run issues and pitched deep into the game on only one occasion. The Royals are the better team and have the better arm and worth the shot at even money.
 
#6
Re: MLB Week Six Plays...

Just been heart break loss after heart break loss. Going to go at it this weekend and then take a break for a week to clear the mind. Here is what I am going with today and no times for writes:

Houston +133
Pittsburgh -110
LAD/Florida Over 9 (-115)
SD +108
NYY -127
KC -230
CWS +115
Oakland/Detroit Over 9 (-125)
LAA/Texas Under 10 (-115)

GL to all!
 
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