My Friday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
Is there anything more frustrating than not securing the best number on a football game or basketball game, then settling for a push instead of a win or taking a loss instead of a push due to the movement in the market?

The worst case scenario is when a winning wager transforms into a losing wager because the sports bettor chases a line movement of one point or more.

Sports bettors deeply lament situations in which they fail to act at the right time to grab the right price.

NHL aficionado Alan Dinkenson, a professional sports bettor profiled in a book titled Lay The Favorite, said at a recent sports betting seminar, "If I can beat the moves and grab the best numbers available, then I feel like I've done my job. The rest usually takes care of itself."

Dinkenson still follows the action once the NHL games begin for three specific reasons: to monitor the flow of every game, grade scoring opportunities in each contest and most importantly, track the health and welfare of individual players in a brutally physical sport.

Professional poker player Brent Carter agrees with "Dink" when it comes to beating the sports betting market.

Carter said, "I love to bet a game, lock up the right price (for instance, the New York Giants +4 in Super Bowl XLVI), and then watch my number disappear for the remainder of the betting cycle."

Carter continued, "That's the simplest definition of a 'good number' and most pros believe if you consistently beat the closing number, you'll be a long-term winner."


TEAM EOG REMAINS PERFECT......Friends and contributors of Eye On Gaming are 5-0 in head-to-head match-ups against Mark Simons, the in-house handicapper at SportsOptions (www.sportsoptions.com).

The SportsOptions Showdown is a weekly NCAAB handicapping contest which pits an EOGer against Simons, a 30-year veteran of the sports handicapping wars.

To date, Team EOG (dsethi, DJ Dalamar, Micelli, railbird and Heim) is a combined 15-10 against the spread while Simons' is 9-13-3.

SportsOptions and president Rick Allec offer $500 to the winner of the weekly showdown.

EOG's WeinketoWarrick is this week's opponent for Simons.

The SportsOptions Showdown is heard every Friday night at 10:00 Pacific as part of The EOG Sports Hour, a one-hour radio program dedicated to the hearts and minds of sports bettors everywhere.

The show airs live on KLAV-AM 1230 (www.klav1230am.com) and show archives are available at www.eogradio.com.


FRIDAY'S BEST BET......Play 810 DETROIT -2 over Sacramento. The Pistons are 5-2 over their last seven games after starting the season 4-20. Ben Gordon scored 22 points off the bench in Detroit's recent 98-88 road win over Boston. Detroit is playing well since Gordon returned from a shoulder injury on February 8. The trio of Gordon, Rodney Stuckey and emerging center Greg Monroe (22 points on 11-of-14 shooting vs. Boston) combined for 69 points in the surprise victory over the Celtics.

The Kings have played terrible defense during the first three games of their recent six-game road trip, allowing all three opponents (Phoenix, Chicago and New York) to shoot better than 50% from the field. Sacramento this season is 3-14 on the road.


COMING MONDAY......A look at my top three contenders for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby (attention: Ray Luca and Discreet Cat, please check your private messages).
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
Re: My Friday blog

JK...still too early for my Derby selection but love to hear any info or reports from the horse guys around here.....
I remember your play on Shackleford in last year's Kentucky Derby.

You wisely played him again in the Preakness when all the so-called wiseguys tossed him.
 
#4
Re: My Friday blog

Thanks JK...seems like I have more success in these Triple Crown Races than I do in March Madness picks....but I look forward to the basketball frenzy just the same...I picked Kentucky before the season started and I am sticking with them....
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
Re: My Friday blog

Thanks JK...seems like I have more success in these Triple Crown Races than I do in March Madness picks....but I look forward to the basketball frenzy just the same...I picked Kentucky before the season started and I am sticking with them....
The Wildcats will be favored in all six games they play in the tourney.

For such a young team, they play great man-to-man defense.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#6
Re: My Friday blog

Looks like you have Kentucky playing on the first Monday in April, JK. Thanks and GL w/ the Pistons.:cheers
 

munson15

I want winners...
#8
Re: My Friday blog

A cursory view at Covers reveals that 5's on the Beavers were gone Wednesday night JK. Tough loss, but you'd have to be awfully quick to have gotten that one.
 

degengambler63

EOG Senior Member
#9
Re: My Friday blog

when my DB expires in march, i'll give sports options a shot. they are slower with grande and
cris for obvious reasons. the rest same as DB
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#11
Re: My Friday blog

I'll reply tomorrow to you JK...im an odds guy so my decision on who to be will bet when they load the gate derby day....but I'll give you a couple. Saw Factorial's post, heard Fly Lexis fly is a freak a long time ago, thought everyone knew so surprised none of the others here posted anything. Maybe my source is shot...
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#12
Re: My Friday blog

I'll reply tomorrow to you JK...im an odds guy so my decision on who to be will be when they load the gate derby day....but I'll give you a couple. Saw Factorial's post, heard Fly Lexis fly is a freak a long time ago, thought everyone knew so surprised none of the others here posted anything. Maybe my source is shot...
Thanks Ray.

No need to wait until post time for the Kentucky Derby closing prices.

With the massive amount of money in the win pool on the first Saturday in May, the odds an hour before the race usually are the prices at post time.
 
#16
Re: My Friday blog

I find it weird that anytime a pro talks about beating the number they say "you should" be a long term winner. Is beating the number a guarantee of being a winner?
 
#17
Re: My Friday blog

JK, good luck with Detriot tonight.
Rooting for Mark Simons tonight due to a shot I had to take from WeinketoWarrick about my
golf selections.
:pop:
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#22
Re: My Friday blog

I find it weird that anytime a pro talks about beating the number they say "you should" be a long term winner. Is beating the number a guarantee of being a winner?
Not a guarantee but a leading indicator, for sure.

I know one thing: get the worst of the number and you can head straight to the poorhouse.
 
#24
Re: My Friday blog

Last I checked, Phil was in the lead after 2 rounds. Rather have him at 3-1 than have several other golfers at higher odds 5-10 shots off the pace. The books put some golfers at 50-100 to 1
for a reason. They have a slim shot of winning the tourney. You have to go with the hot hand in
golf and Phil is hot right now.
:pop:
 
#25
Re: My Friday blog

Last I checked, Phil was in the lead after 2 rounds. Rather have him at 3-1 than have several other golfers at higher odds 5-10 shots off the pace. The books put some golfers at 50-100 to 1
for a reason. They have a slim shot of winning the tourney. You have to go with the hot hand in
golf and Phil is hot right now.
:pop:
You also could have gotten Phil at 9:1 if you would have line-shopped even just a little. That's my point.

Yeah, you might win. But if you do you're getting 1/3 of the return on your money that you easily could have.
 
#26
Re: My Friday blog

Where in Vegas was Phil 9-1 ? I don't bet offshore since you never know if your going to get paid.
If the Coast properties had Phil at 3-1, I doubt that any other property in Vegas had Phil at 9-1.
:+clueless
 
#27
Re: My Friday blog

I can't tell you what Vegas had, but if that was the best you could find you should have asked for the head linesman and then flipped him off and called him a pussy.
 
#30
Re: My Friday blog

I find it weird that anytime a pro talks about beating the number they say "you should" be a long term winner. Is beating the number a guarantee of being a winner?
people that talk about beating the closing number are not capable of handicapping, so they have nothing else to say to justify their pick. It is all dibbity dabbaly. Both sides of the counter are way overrated at the moment imo.
 
#34
Re: My Friday blog

Ouch, I don't shop around too much for a 5.00 bet. Actually, I wanted Adam Scott to win at 10-1.
Now if I was making limit bets, I would shop around for the best number. I just bet for fun since
I know that it is diffucult to beat the system. Thanks for the info. Will check the Hilton for golf
odds in the future. Good luck this weekend.
:pop:
 
#35
Re: My Friday blog

thanks JCROM. hope phil gets it done for you. i can't even remember the last time i cashed a golf tournament winner. have done OK in matchups, though.
 
#36
Re: My Friday blog

JK, good luck with your dibbity dabbaly play of Michigan +5 1/2 today.
Your record in the hot corner is 41-41-1.
Let's get going, you're a lot better than that.
:pop:
 
#37
Re: My Friday blog

Pvcpipe, I usually just bet my favorite golfers, Tiger, Phil and Ernie. Tiger was off this week and
Ernie has just been so-so lately. Took Adan Scott because I have won with him in the past but
it looks like he is taking this week off also shooting over par so far. I don't play many matchups
since Tiger,Phil and Ernie are usually favorites.
:pop:
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#40
Re: My Friday blog

I think Michigan is a live dog.

They're 7-0 at home in conference play this season.

I've recently seen a few cracks in Ohio State's game.

Let's get the money, Joe.

:cheers
 
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