My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Expect the unexpected when athletes in their late teens and early twenties compete on a football field.

The Football Bowl Subdivision lost five of its 13 undefeated teams this past weekend when Clemson, Washington, Washington State, San Diego State and Navy fell at the hands of a conference foe.

Interestingly, there were no fluke plays, lucky bounces or controversial calls that created the surprising results.

The common thread running through the five games: A lack of offensive production by the previously-undefeated teams.

All five first-time losers failed to reach their team totals and all five contests fell safely under the game total with both Washington schools qualifying as "hopeless favorites," teams that failed to score the number of points they were laying.

Washington managed only seven points while laying 17.5 in its road loss to the victorious Arizona State Sun Devils, a team whose permissive defense entered the game allowing opponents to score 30-plus points in 11 straight games.

Pac-12 partner Washington State laid an even bigger egg than UW when scoring only three points as a 16-point choice against the California Golden Bears in Berkeley.

Cal won by a shocking score of 37-3 to embarrass a Mike Leach-squad that briefly entertained national title aspirations.

Unfortunately for football in the Pacific Northwest, the upsets of UW and WSU were televised nationally by ESPN as opposed to the hard-to-find Pac-12 Network.

San Diego State was the only team in the quintet of losers that underperformed before its home crowd as the other four losers dressed as visitors.

The Aztecs were thoroughly outplayed in all three phases of the game as the underrated Boise State Broncos scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams.

Boise State's defense recorded 12 tackles for losses and limited Heisman Trophy candidate Rashaad Penny to 53 yards on 21 carries in a dominating 31-14 victory, spurring an Idaho Statesman headline that screamed, "Wait, Who Was The Underdog?"


FADE THE FAVE...Sharp sports bettors measure the strength of college football teams by pointspreads and power ratings, not national rankings or popularity polls.

Nationally-ranked teams inherently are overpriced in the betting marketplace, a direct result of media hype and exposure.

The artificial bump in status bleeds into the pricing of the teams, opening the door for value seekers to fade high-profile teams in select spots.

As a long-time sports bettor, I naturally lean to the underdog with the admission that some of the best bets available are focused favorites in advantageous scheduling spots.


OPENING TIP
...The 2017-18 NBA season gets underway tomorrow night on the heels of an abbreviated exhibition schedule.

Reduced from as many as eight preseason games last season to teams playing as few as three preseason games this season, the shorter exhibition slate was designed to keep players in peak physical condition and game-readiness for the long 82-game regular-season grind.

Team timeouts have been reduced from nine to seven with each timeout now scheduled for 75 seconds, thus eliminating the poorly-named 20-second timeout which halted play for at least a minute and killed the natural flow and drama of a closely-contested game.

No suspense or intrigue this season as many NBA analysts are predicting a fourth straight meeting between the Cavs and Warriors in the 2018 NBA Finals.

Former NBA player Stephen Jackson went one step further by predicting the Cavs and Warriors will not only meet for the title in 2018 but also in 2019.


MONDAY'S BEST BET...The dismal starting pitching performances in the Suicide Round and Divisional Playoff Round have given way to some outstanding pitching in the League Championship Series.

None of the four games in the LCS has gone over the posted total with a pair of 2-1 games in the ALCS and final scores of 4-1 and 5-2 in the NLCS.

I'll bet UNDER 8.5 runs (EVEN) in tonight's Game 3 at Yankee Stadium.

Yankee hitters continue to strike out an alarming rate and big-game pitcher CC Sabathia will be charged with holding down a Houston lineup in a virtual must-win game.

The dominant Yankee bullpen is the key to the bet as manager Joe Girardi will ask his team to grab an early lead and then turn over the game to the likes of Green, Kahnle, Robertson, Betances and Chapman.

The strategy worked for the Yanks in Game 5 of the ALDS and Girardi likely will employ the same tactics tonight.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

The eight undefeated college football survivors (in order of Sagarin's power ratings): Alabama, Penn State, Wisconsin, TCU, Miami-Florida, Central Florida and South Florida.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

I wonder if NBA handle is even 5% in Vegas during football & MLB Playoffs?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

I wonder if NBA handle is even 5% in Vegas during football & MLB Playoffs?


I've never worked behind a counter here in Las Vegas but 5% seems like an accurate number.

I assume recreational sports bettors take time to warm up to a sport.

The NBA schedulemakers are smart to start off the season with the Tuesday night doubleheader of Boston at Cleveland and Houston at Golden State.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

At CGT right now:

Cleveland -3 over Boston and Golden State -9.5 over Houston.

Also, a 20.5-point difference in the game totals (211.5 in Cleveland and 232 in Oakland).

I'll do some quick research on the highest-scoring season in NBA history.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

So much for a potential record.

In the 1961-62 season, teams averaged 118.8 points per game.

Last season, teams averaged 105.6 points per game, up from 102.7 and 100.0 in the previous two seasons.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: My Monday blog

JK - what kind of short-term effect will there be (if any) with the fewer preseason games?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

JK - what kind of short-term effect will there be (if any) with the fewer preseason games?


Good question.

I think you need to place a premium on quality coaching and possibly give an edge to teams that feature players who are familiar with one another.

Looking at season-long trends, the 3-point shot is all the rage.

In seven short years, we've gone from seeing 36 3-point shots per game to 54 3-point shots per game.

Underdogs who shoot well from beyond the arc will be a point of emphasis for me.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

The Bulls are all-in with the 3’s this year.


And I think they'll be a dangerous underdog some nights.

Markkanen (age 20) looked good in the short preseason and how about the late-bloomer, Justin Holiday?

The Bulls will surprise some teams as a home underdog.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: My Monday blog

And I think they'll be a dangerous underdog some nights.

Markkanen (age 20) looked good in the short preseason and how about the late-bloomer, Justin Holiday?

The Bulls will surprise some teams as a home underdog.

Both have been pretty good, as has Valentine. I’m focusing on the other teams totals as Bulls can’t stop anyone.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

yankees & tanaka line closed ( yankess -121 at BetOnline ) vs. astros & morton - may 14th 2017 , as the astros won 10-7 at the stadium in NY
 

bomzee

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

I sincerely hope that the NBA players stand and respect the National Anthem unlike so many players in the nfl 😡
 
Re: My Monday blog

FADE THE FAVE..
Nationally-ranked teams inherently are overpriced in the betting marketplace, a direct result of media hype and exposure.

The artificial bump in status bleeds into the pricing of the teams, opening the door for value seekers to fade high-profile teams in select spots.

.

While there is very little evidence of this being true (especially in away games, one could make a case ranked teams have been overvalued in home games) I did enjoy the blog. Miss the radio show JK. Hope it makes a return someday!
 
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