My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Notes and observations from a hardcore Las Vegas sports bettor...

---Should I feel more safe or less safe when I see bomb-sniffing dogs patrolling the casino floor at The Stratosphere?

---On the subject of "The Strat," William Hill will be taking over sports book operations there at year's end.

---Former Stratosphere race and sports book director Ed Malinowski saw the writing on the wall and joined DraftKings in an executive position, one level below John Avello, former director at both Wynn Las Vegas and Bally's Las Vegas. Avello is 65 and Malinowski is 45.

---Both Bob Scucci (Boyd) and Chuck Esposito (Stations) are in the running for Avello's former post at Wynn.

---Sports book supervisor Doug Castaneda has been a trusted employee at Wynn since the classy hotel opened in late April of 2005.

---I never like to lose money betting a sport unfamiliar to me. However, I could not resist betting Khabib Nurmagodev over Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 229. My gambling intuition kicked in when I saw one slow-moving Nevada sports book dealing the favored Russian at -165 while respected outs like Pinnacle and BetDSI were leading the market north at -185.

---I rarely follow NHL action but allow me to pass along a betting angle from Las Vegas-based professional sports bettor Ron Boyles. Boyles also claims he doesn't follow the league closely but senses the Vegas Golden Knights will struggle in one specific spot this season. Boyles feels VGK will be vulnerable on the road this season after their inaugural season shocked the hockey world and resulted in a Stanley Cup Final appearance. The betting angle is simple: Wager against VGK in every game away from T-Mobile Arena because opponents this season will not sleep on the reigning Western Conference champions. The Golden Knights won their first road game of the season Saturday night in a shootout after losing their home opener Thursday night. Boyles starts the season 0-1 but one bad result will not dissuade him from carrying out his long-term plan of 41 plays in 41 games. Boyles's angle puts us on the Sabres (+130) tonight in Buffalo.

---Boyles also divulged his single strongest piece of advice for sports bettors. He said, "Don't be afraid to bet big when the time is right." Too many gambers visualize the penalties of losing rather than envisioning the rewards of success.

---Be careful betting solely off the results of the previous week's college football action. Rarely do you get the same team two weeks in a row.

---Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz says the worst week of a college football season is Week 2 following a Week 1 loss. Every decision made in the offseason is questioned after a season-opening loss.

---Young Patrick Mahomes is the story of the NFL season after five weeks. His Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 straight-up and against the spread this season as they head east to play perennial power New England this Sunday night. Mahomes is in the second year of a four-year deal worth $16.4 million, allowing the Chiefs to spend money on other positions over the next couple of seasons. Mahomes also won his NFL debut last December in Denver so his teams have never lost a game either on the field or in the betting marketplace.

---The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball, winners of 11 straight. I committed at least two fouls yesterday when backing the Colorado Rockies: I bet against a red-hot team AND I bet a team in a must-win spot. Baseball is a hard sport to play when players are pressing and clearly the Rockies were pressing. They failed to produce a single run at hitter-friendly Coors Field. What's worse? I laid 3 to win 2 on the Rockies at MGM Grand (a 20-cent line but at the time the lowest price in the market on the Rox was dealt at MGM Mirage properties) and paid for my misguided thoughts.

---I love averages. The average MLB fastball this season was 93.2 miles per hour. The average number of three-point shots per game in the NBA over the past six seasons has risen from 40 to 58 while scoring per game (think totals wagering) has increased from 196.2 to 212.6. The average number of points scored in an NFL game last season was 43.4 (this season's average is 47.8). To know what's above par and what's below par, you must know what's average.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Some good observations JK....was surprised you fell into the must win scenario of the Rockies....but don’t feel bad, we have all been there....Now whenever I see a must win scenario bought up, I run the other way....

The Brewers are getting great pitching and timely hitting....just at the right time....
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Nice read. I think the Golden Knights will have a little more trouble both home and away. Their point projection was at least 10 fewer than they got last year. The Flyers came in on Opening Night and breezed. They did the same last year in San Jose.

Thanks for the Ron Boyles info. He is a wealth of knowledge.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
JK the Rockies bats have been ice cold, i mean frozen. Surprised you bet that.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK the Rockies bats have been ice cold, i mean frozen. Surprised you bet that.

I loved Marquez over Miley.

Wrong again.

Miley was the one who came up big.

Laid -150, closed -170 at some places.

So much for beating the price.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Nice read. I think the Golden Knights will have a little more trouble both home and away. Their point projection was at least 10 fewer than they got last year. The Flyers came in on Opening Night and breezed. They did the same last year in San Jose.

Thanks for the Ron Boyles info. He is a wealth of knowledge.


Thanks for checking in, JHU Dad.

Hope to dine with Ron again this week.

He gave me five plays and went 2-3.

The unpublished plays were the Jets over the Broncos and the Knights' angle in road games.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Some good observations JK....was surprised you fell into the must win scenario of the Rockies....but don’t feel bad, we have all been there....Now whenever I see a must win scenario bought up, I run the other way....

The Brewers are getting great pitching and timely hitting....just at the right time....


Of course, "must win" angles went 4-0 on MLB's last day of the regular season.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
I loved Marquez over Miley.

Wrong again.

Miley was the one who came up big.

Laid -150, closed -170 at some places.

So much for beating the price.


I went through a 2 week stretch in June where my CLV% was through the roof. It did not translate into winning as it was the worst stretch I've had in a while.
Was consistently beating lines by 15 cents or more and couldn't cash a ticket.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Current sportsbook manager job description:

1) watch screen
2) watch cocktail servers
3) open and maintain twitter account
 

blueline

EOG Master
when there aren't any runners who have come close to par look to the FTS....breeding trumps trainer
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I went through a 2 week stretch in June where my CLV% was through the roof. It did not translate into winning as it was the worst stretch I've had in a while.
Was consistently beating lines by 15 cents or more and couldn't cash a ticket.


It happens.

But I do better when my portfolio looks better than the closing numbers.
 

VegasVic

EOG Addicted
---I never like to lose money betting a sport unfamiliar to me. However, I could not resist betting Khabib Nurmagodev over Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 229. My gambling intuition kicked in when I saw one slow-moving Nevada sports book dealing the favored Russian at -165 while respected outs like Pinnacle and BetDSI were leading the market north at -185.

That makes two of us. I did the same with the same mindset.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
---Be careful betting solely off the results of the previous week's college football action. Rarely do you get the same team two weeks in a row.

This is one of my real problems. Understanding look ahead games, (traps), injury at key positions, etc are logical. It is the illogical outcomes that put me at loss.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
---Be careful betting solely off the results of the previous week's college football action. Rarely do you get the same team two weeks in a row.

This is one of my real problems. Understanding look ahead games, (traps), injury at key positions, etc are logical. It is the illogical outcomes that put me at loss.


I hear ya, Cheap.

I'm a situational handicapper.

For me, it's all about the spot.

I feel frustrated when a team overwhelms a spot like last Saturday night when Notre Dame ran past Virginia Tech with ease.
 

Heim

EOG Master
I wonder whose decision it was at the Wynn to no longer offer future odds on the Derby after taking some big hits with Justify?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I wonder whose decision it was at the Wynn to no longer offer future odds on the Derby after taking some big hits with Justify?

Short-sighted decision.

Four hundred betting options and the house pays on only one winner.

#BookmakersDream
 
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Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
---On the subject of "The Strat," William Hill will be taking over sports book operations there at year's end.

---Former Stratosphere race and sports book director Ed Malinowski saw the writing on the wall and joined DraftKings in an executive position, one level below John Avello, former director at both Wynn Las Vegas and Bally's Las Vegas. Avello is 65 and Malinowski is 45.

It’s ironic how Malinowski was so excited about being part of “the Strat” renovations in this Dave Dye interview just 3 weeks ago (Gaming Today - link below).

https://www.gamingtoday.com/article/77670-Golden_opportunities_blooming_for_Stratosphere_Malinowski
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Excellent stuff JK!!!! I've always enjoyed your Monday blog, and I always, without exception, pass it along to Spartan Mike!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for checking in, Keith.

Tell Mike I said hello.

We need to meet up in Las Vegas for March Madness 2019.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
Current sportsbook manager job description:

1) watch screen
2) watch cocktail servers
3) open and maintain twitter account

4.) Talk to media and fake being an "expert"

The previous media/pr guy for Cantor was the worst.

On the flip side one legitimate listen imo is John Murray on the Behind The Best pod. Definitely the best I have heard from these directors.
 
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