My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
If soccer is considered the beautiful game, then let's call basketball a 10-man ballet.

Played properly with teams sacrificing good shots for great shots, basketball is a sport where execution beats talent when talent doesn't execute.

Players need to produce points while simultaneously aiming to prevent them.

The most important statistic in a basketball box score is field-goal percentage, for and against.

Field-goal percentage is a function of shot selection.

Through the long history of basketball, the closer to the rim a shooter is positioned, the higher the likelihood of a successful shot.

Because not all shots are awarded the same point value, traditional field-goal percentages take a back seat to effective field-goal percentages (eFG%).

The formula for effective field-goal percentage is simple and straightforward: (2-point field-goals made) + 1.5 * (3-point field-goals made) divided by all field-goal attempts.

The NBA's recent explosion of three-point shots is a prime example of analytics informing players on how best to approach the game.

Given its point value, the three-point shot is far more efficient than a mid-range jumper worth only two points.

Over the past quarter-century, NBA players have averaged 1.05 points on three-pointers above the break and an impressive 1.16 points on all corner 3's.

In contrast, a mid-range jumper, usually challenged more aggressively than a shot from beyond the arc, produces only 0.80 points per shot.

Smart teams and shrewd players analyze the numbers and adjust accordingly.

This is not to say an elbow jumper from 15 feet away should never be attempted.

After all, two of the best mid-range shooters in the game today -- Chris Paul and Khris Middleton -- will compete against one another in the upcoming NBA Finals.

An open mid-range jumper is the antidote for a defensive team focused on guarding the three-point line or packing the paint to defend the rim.

What's worse than a mid-range jumper?

A 24-foot shot where the unaware shooter has a foot placed on the line.

That's undoubtedly the worst shot in basketball.

Additionally, players who focus on corner 3's must possess the court awareness to stay inbounds with a mere three feet of floor space between the NBA three-point arc and the out-of-bounds line.


SUNS OR BUCKS.....Tough call.

A case could be made either way.

As EOG contributor WILDBILL hinted last month, the betting marketplace will have a great read on both teams after 72 regular-season games and three rounds of playoff action.

Everyone knows everything about the strengths and weaknesses of the Suns and Bucks.

In analyzing basketball games, I sometimes envision a game of three-on-three instead of five-on-five.

Do you like the trio of Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton or the threesome of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Another tough call.

A quick look at the ages of the major players shows two of the three Milwaukee players (Middleton at 29 and "The Greek Freek" at 26) are in their athletic prime while Phoenix fields one old guy with two youngsters (Paul at 36, Booker and Ayton at 24 and 22, respectively).

Without the star power of recent NBA Finals in this unlikely matchup of perennial also-rans, there's a real chance a role player could provide the winning edge in the NBA Finals.

Keep an eye on the two Camerons (Payne and Johnson) in Phoenix and don't sleep on Bobby Portis or Pat Connaughton of the Bucks.

Roster construction this season has been a positive for both the Suns and Bucks.

In a year where injuries dominated NBA headlines and where the effects of COVID-19 are likely to blame, credit general managers James Jones (Phoenix) and Jon Horst (Milwaukee) for building rosters that feature a mix of talented offensive players and sticky defensive disruptors.



TITLE SPONSOR NEEDED.....The Suns will benefit from home-court advantage in the 2021 NBA Finals in a 2-2-1-1-1 format.

Looks like the pandemic cost the Suns a sponsorship deal for its home arena, which debuted as America West Arena in 1992.

In late 2014, the Suns signed a deal with a nearby casino in Scottsdale for arena naming rights.

Talking Stick Resort Arena did not exactly roll off the tongue, but for six seasons, the two parties benefited from the association.

That is, until the pandemic hit.

That's when Talking Stick Resort struggled to justify extending its five-year deal.

An enterprising gaming company like FanDuel should take advantage of the Suns' success by attaching its catchy name to the building currently called Phoenix Suns Arena.

After all, FanDuel is the official gaming partner of the Phoenix Suns.

The two parties fully expect an in-arena sports book will be operating by the start of the 2021-22 NBA season.

In the arena concourse, a Suns fan next season will be able to purchase a hot dog, a beer and a $2200 in-game wager on the Suns.

And fans thought ticket prices were expensive!



MEET MEL MOCCO.....He was the MVP on Team USA's senior squad at the recently-concluded Masters Basketball Tournament in Coral Gables, Florida.

Mocco turned 70 this year and he's still going strong playing competitive hoops.

A Chicago Heights native, Mocco graduated from Bloom High School in 1970 and never gave up his passion for playing basketball.

Mocco seeks out basketball games with players over the age of 50 and he told me the secret of his game is to stay limber.

The veteran hoopster was recently spotted at Pullman Community Center on the south side of Chicago where most of the hoopsters are African-American.

Mocco said he's known in Chicago's southside gyms as "The White Steph Curry."

When asked about his dominance at the Senior Games in Florida, Mocco cited his recent birthday as a decided advantage.

"In the '70 and over' division, I'm a young 70," he said with a wink and a smile.



MONDAY'S WNBA PREDICTION.....Dallas Wings 90 New York Liberty 80.

Both teams enter the game even with the league at 9-9.

First meeting this season went to the Liberty, 88-81, in late May.

But check the box score of the first matchup closely.

Satou Sabally and Allisha Gray were not available for the Wings due to international commitments.

They're back in the States now and playing well in a Dallas system that features a wide-open offensive attack and disruptive length at most every defensive position.

The Liberty woke up just in the nick of time last Saturday in an 82-79 come-from-behind victory over a shorthanded Washington team.

If the Liberty are once again stuck 18 points at halftime, there will be no second-half rallies tonight against a deep Dallas squad.

Lay the spot with the Wings, any number up to 4, when the point spread first appears.


COMING NEXT MONDAY.....A look at the new Hard Rock Casino in Gary, Indiana which opened in mid-May and whose sports book operation is still listed as "Coming Soon."
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
As much as you drop coin on the WNBA, I'd think it would be a 10 person ballet. Nevertheless, your style is FANtastic.


Haha.

Ten-person ballet?

Hmmm...

I was using "man" there to cover both men and woman.

Sick of the silly speech police.

The New York Liberty's media guide not only lists a helpful pronunciation guide but also a pronoun guide (No joke).

But here's the problem: Every member of the team and coaching staff, 18 people in all, uses the traditional pronouns of he/him/his or she/her/hers.

How about this novel idea?

List only the preferred pronouns of players or coaches who request non-traditional pronouns.

After all, the Liberty media guide only lists the phonetic spellings of hard-to-pronounce names.

No need to list Sue Bird in a pronunciation guide.

As for my personal pronouns?

I'm requesting everyone call me, "Your Royal Highness."
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK….your Monday blogs are a must read….great info and insight without political garbage….we should all follow your lead…..


Thanks for checking in, Arturo.

Nothing worse than political garbage, especially the nonsense posted at a website titled Eye On Gaming.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Circa and South Point opened the Dallas-New York game as a Pick 'em.

Current price: Dallas -5 (-110).
 

Abundy

EOG Addicted
Love your Monday Blogs Jk. You have a talent. How are you doing in The WNBA this year. I know it used to be your favorite sport because of the condensed schedule and few teams to follow.
 

ouch

EOG Dedicated
Unofficially and including the Dallas loss tonight, I have our favorite blogger at 11-4 for the WNBA season so far.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Dallas did not defend at all tonight.

Disappointing to see.

Notre Dame alums Arike Ogunbowale and Marina Mabrey are one-way players, offense only.

No Natasha Howard and no Rebecca Allen for the Liberty tonight, yet New York was the better team.

Aargh.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Twelve players on 12 teams makes the league an easy follow.

It's like betting one college hoop conference like the Pac-12.
 
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