My Wednesday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
The pointspread is the great equalizer.

Take a look at once-beaten Kentucky, winners of eight consecutive games to start the season and 17 in a row since their only loss at Indiana on a challenged, buzzer-beating 3-pointer by the Hoosiers.

The Wildcats (25-1) sit atop the Associated Press Top 25 poll with the inside track at being named the overall top seed ("the one of ones") in the upcoming NCAA tournament.

Kentucky features the best starting five in the country with NBA draft prospects at every position.

John Calipari's starting five, according to a mock draft at www.nbadraft.net, will be among the first 21 players taken in the June draft with sleek forward Anthony Davis going as the top pick and power guard Michael Kidd-Gilchrist drafted in the top seven.

The Wildcats this season have trashed the competition, winning their games by an average score of 77-57.

One would assume Kentucky's gaudy margin of victory would lead to an impressive against-the-spread record.

But that's not the case.

Kentucky is only 11-13 ATS as the market has adjusted properly to offset Big Blue's immense talent.

One part of Kentucky's game overlooked by the betting marketplace is its defensive intensity.

Two-thirds (16 of 24) of Kentucky's games have gone "under" the posted total.


WEDNESDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 591 NEW MEXICO -1 over San Diego State.

The Lobos have been waiting three weeks to play this revenge game against the Aztecs.

On January 18, SDSU shocked UNM with a 15-0 second-half run to beat the Lobos 75-70 in Albuquerque, marking the fourth straight win in the series for the Aztecs.

Enough is enough.

Expect Steve Alford's team to be primed and ready for one of its best performances of the season and I'm confident UNM's best game is better than SDSU's best game.

UNM's experienced roster should be able to handle the madhouse at Viejas Arena.

No Kawhi Leonard or Billy White or Malcolm Thomas to battle this season.


COMING THURSDAY......A look ahead to BracketBuster action in college basketball.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
Re: My Wednesday blog

Interesting....KY UNDER. Nice. GL tonight.
Last year's national champs (UConn) were 5-1 to the "under" in six NCAA tournament games.

The Huskies allowed only 56 points per game in winning their third national title ('99 and '04).
 
#4
Re: My Wednesday blog

Love the play today and it is my best bet on the college board also. very important game for both sides and like you, I believe new mexico's best is better than sd state's best.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
Re: My Wednesday blog

Love the play today and it is my best bet on the college board also. very important game for both sides and like you, I believe new mexico's best is better than sd state's best.
Like to hear it, tripp.

Hope we're celebrating after the game.

:cheers
 
#6
Re: My Wednesday blog

You said last night when you were doing the show that it feels like a friday show and that was my point.The friday show is the best of the week so why not try to make every show like a friday show.Micah was a good guest gave out plays with some analysis for "tomorrow".
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#7
Re: My Wednesday blog

You said last night when you were doing the show that it feels like a friday show and that was my point.The friday show is the best of the week so why not try to make every show like a friday show.Micah was a good guest gave out plays with some analysis for "tomorrow".
You called it, justintalk.

A focus on the next day's action is a must.
 
#10
Re: My Wednesday blog

JK, good luck with the Lobos tonight. Hope your authority angle makes it 3 in a row for you.
One thing for sure, your not into fantasy sports playing the unders a majority of the time.
I think you would be good with fantasy sports since you know a great deal about all these teams. A-ROD'S average draft position in some mock drafts has been in the 5th round ?????
:+clueless
 
#11
Re: My Wednesday blog

Jumped on the bandwagon, took the Lobos-1. Surprised they didn't ask to see a room key at
Sam's Town for my $11.00 straight bet.
:LMAO
 
#12
Re: My Wednesday blog

Didn't Kentucky had an ATS run of 0-13-1 at one time this year? They are now 7-1 ATS in their last 8.

Their live practice on espnU was very entertaining. I just don't have them winning it all....yet.
 
#13
Re: My Wednesday blog

Im not a fan of NewMexico overrated Freshman pg, he was held scoreless in last meeting vs Aztecs. Franklin and Shelton very good defenders. If NewMexico is better its by a whisker, not sure them being road favorites is justified at hostile Cox arena. SDSU a more veteran team, UNM is young.
 
#14
Re: My Wednesday blog

Thanks JK for the nbadraft preview link. Interesting to see where guys are projected and seeing that my bucks would get another big man to help on the inside would be very nice.
 
#16
Re: My Wednesday blog

wall was not overrated, but dsethi is right in that this team and that team have in common that they are not consistent jump shooters and can go on serious scoring droughts.

difference is though IMO, this team is littered with more talent (crazy as that is to say when talking about a team that had the top two overall picks and tons of first rounders). It's gonna be very difficult for a team to score on kentucky with all their length. They like to play up-tempo and still hold offenses to very low numbers. They are only getting better and better and go out each night confident they can win by 20.

I think the defense of this years team is strong enough to withstand a game or two with very poor jump shooting. Obviously more likely they dont win the title than them doing so, but I think they are the clear favorite and best team in the nation regardless of the end results this season.
 
#17
Re: My Wednesday blog

doesnt mean i think UK is winning it all though.
Fair enough, but that's a -400 prediction so not exactly a bold one.

Who do you like to win it all?

I think Florida at +3750 is the best value right now, but if I had to pick one team it'd definitely be Kentucky.
 

Stooches

EOG Senior Member
#18
Re: My Wednesday blog

Calipari although a great recruiter is not a good in-game coach and i think that compounded with the lack of consistency from the PG spot and the occasional drought from outside I just don't see this team winning 6 games in a row. Still think the play is Ohio State. Thad Matta is a great coach and if some shooters warm up a bit, this is a team that can cut down the nets in March.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#19
Re: My Wednesday blog

Calipari although a great recruiter is not a good in-game coach and i think that compounded with the lack of consistency from the PG spot and the occasional drought from outside I just don't see this team winning 6 games in a row. Still think the play is Ohio State. Thad Matta is a great coach and if some shooters warm up a bit, this is a team that can cut down the nets in March.
I bet last year's Ohio State team (-3) over Kentucky in a Sweet Sixteen matchup and I was severely disappointed with the Buckeyes' effort.

I think UK is better this season than last season and I believe OSU has regressed.
 
#20
Re: My Wednesday blog

I bet last year's Ohio State team (-3) over Kentucky in a Sweet Sixteen matchup and I was severely disappointed with the Buckeyes effort.

I think UK is better this season than last season and I believe OSU has regressed.
Jk, you gave -5.5 or 6 on Ohio State-Kentucky. I was on the other side. Ohio State had won their 1st two games in the tourny by 62 pts, while Ky had won on a buzzer beater and a war against Huggy Bear. Perfect storm! This year's Ky team reminds of the 1982 Georgetown(freshman Ewing) team. Relentless defense. The SEC schedule will end up being their kryptonite!
 
#22
Re: My Wednesday blog

What conn did last year was truly amazing its all about getting hot at the right time.conn lost 4/5 regular season then they won the big east tourny 5 games in 5 nights.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#23
Re: My Wednesday blog

Jk, you gave -5.5 or 6 on Ohio State-Kentucky. I was on the other side. Ohio State had won their 1st two games in the tourny by 62 pts, while Ky had won on a buzzer beater and a war against Huggy Bear. Perfect storm! This year's Ky team reminds of the 1982 Georgetown(freshman Ewing) team. Relentless defense. The SEC schedule will end up being their kryptonite!
I stand corrected.

It was one of the worst bets I made all year.

Tried to erase it from my memory (hehe).

I remember you liked Kentucky.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#25
Re: My Wednesday blog

Im not a fan of NewMexico overrated Freshman pg, he was held scoreless in last meeting vs Aztecs. Franklin and Shelton very good defenders. If NewMexico is better its by a whisker, not sure them being road favorites is justified at hostile Cox arena. SDSU a more veteran team, UNM is young.
I never wrote UNM is more experienced than San Diego State.

I wrote UNM has the experience to handle the raucous crowd at Viejas Arena.

Seniors Gordon, Hardeman and McDonald have logged many significant minutes in the MWC.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#27
Re: My Wednesday blog

I had a tough NCAA tournament last season.

I remember having Temple +5.5 over SDSU and losing the game by seven in double overtime.

Ouch.
 

Stooches

EOG Senior Member
#28
Re: My Wednesday blog

JK - last year was a real tough tourney for me as well. Spent most of the year trying to recover my bankroll. I couldn't get anything right. Hope this year is a different story. NCAA Tourney is truly the best time of year, particularly that first weekend.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#29
Re: My Wednesday blog

JK - last year was a real tough tourney for me as well. Spent most of the year trying to recover my bankroll. I couldn't get anything right. Hope this year is a different story. NCAA Tourney is truly the best time of year, particularly that first weekend.
Good luck this season, Stooches.

I love the Saturday and Sunday action of the first weekend.

Also, the lesser tournaments (NIT, CBI and CIT) offer some excellent betting opportunities.
 
#32
Re: My Wednesday blog

NM opening it up, only positive to this is us rebel fans are rooting for NM big time after the collaspe last night :shoot:
 
#34
Re: My Wednesday blog

Shame on the Rebels for allowing TCU to secure 17 offensive rebounds.
Thats what happens when you hire a stacy augmon and have an offensive minded head coach. Give Steve Fisher team credit, they have shown every game for the last 1.5 yr, max effort every time. The confrence wanted to make sure NewMexico was going to get in dance with a quality road win and a 3 bid leauge. I would love to take sdsu +6 in Vegas if they meet lobos.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#37
Re: My Wednesday blog

I saw SDSU -1 last night.

New Mexico tonight closed a 2-point favorite in some spots.

Satisfying win.

Another revenge game coming tomorrow night.

Think quadruple overtime.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#40
Re: My Wednesday blog

Thats what happens when you hire a stacy augmon and have an offensive minded head coach. Give Steve Fisher team credit, they have shown every game for the last 1.5 yr, max effort every time. The confrence wanted to make sure NewMexico was going to get in dance with a quality road win and a 3 bid leauge. I would love to take sdsu +6 in Vegas if they meet lobos.

There were some very strange calls tonight affecting the Aztecs......the two technicals
when it was close early left you scratching your head.
 
Top