NBA 2021

#1
"The New York Knicks are no longer the laughingstock of the NBA. They have now covered the spread in 11 straight games and are 37-21-1 ATS on the season. Only the Memphis Grizzlies have a better ATS record this year.

New York is also a great team out of the starting gates. The Knicks are 38-18-2 in the first half ATS on the season, and 11-3-1 1H ATS in their last 15 games.
In fact, they are greater than 80% ATS in three situations:
  • They are 11-2 ATS when they are a home favorite
  • They are 5-1-1 ATS when they are on 2-3 days of rest
  • They are 12-3-1 ATS when they have the rest advantage over their opponent
The Knicks are on the rise and the odds makers have not yet caught on to how for real this team is.

https://edge.twinspires.com/nba/nba-trends-the-knicks-have-been-money-against-the-spread/

 
#2
Funny how a sportsbook puts out stuff like this. I know they have paid contracted writers to do this, but still kind of ironic to say oddsmakers (including us) haven't priced them up.

Fact is the Knicks win streak on the ATS basis has been a function of winning a lot of closer games and catching quite a few substandard teams in bad situations. I certainly wouldn't bet against them at the moment, but this certainly will lead to a run of ATS losses in the not too distant future when the coin flips stop going their way and the shots stop falling. Note they have been hitting a lot of overs during the streak run, something that their coach probably looks at as something to clean up on the defensive end.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
Last Sunday, I bet the Pelicans -4 in the second half against the Knicks.

Halftime score: Knicks 57 Pelicans 44.

In essence, I had the Pelicans +9 for the full game.

Unfortunately, the bet involved the full game (overtime included).

The Pelicans, trailing by 13 at the break, rallied to outscore the Knicks, 35-22, after three quarters.

I felt smart.

Just don't get outscored by 10 points in the fourth quarter.

The Pelicans played the Knicks even in the fourth quarter and that was the problem.

The game was tied at 103 when the buzzer sounded.

The dreaded overtime period got me.

I did not watch the extra five-minute session, though I did see a clear path foul called in the waning seconds of overtime.

Final score: Knicks 119 Pelicans 109 (OT).

So much for catching nine points with the Pelicans.

I know, I know: There's no crying in the sports book.

Would you at least grant me a sad face?

:confused:
 
#6
This is the something has to give matchup, Raptors on a four game ATS win streak too. I usually just keep it simple, bet the Knicks in the first quarter when facing teams that don't start that well. Its gone 11-2 for me so far, but the stats do show the trend has been declining for both the quarter and half.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#8
The NYK opener was interesting. They've been the talk of the league, streaks galore yet only opened
1 at home versus Raptors!? Sure Raptors are finally healthy but opener told me Knicks maybe
not all that.
 
#9
Make that 12 straight full game ATS covers:

NYK 120, Raptors 103.

The Knicks won & covered the 1Q, 1H & game.

Next up hosting the Suns on Monday.

What will the line be?
 
#11
My sympathies to anyone who had the Nuggets -14. Can't imagine a worse gut punch than seeing an 11-0 run in the last minute and a half when scrubs on both sides are in make an easy winner into a loser.
 
#13
My sympathies to anyone who had the Nuggets -14. Can't imagine a worse gut punch than seeing an 11-0 run in the last minute and a half when scrubs on both sides are in make an easy winner into a loser.
Fix? What were the odds of that happening?

Denver 129
Houston 116

Houston covers the closing +14 line.
 
#15
I didn't watch it and fortunately I didn't bet it. But reading the play by play I can imagine the horror if you watched the end.

You're up 24 and you block a shot with under 1:30 left, can't get much better. Except when you don't get control of the ball and then it turns into a made 3 so up 21. Then a Nuggets scrub turns the ball over just 7 seconds later and its dunked right away so up 19 with 1:15 left, still in decent shape. Then the guy who turned it over instead of dribbling out some clock takes a 3 just 7 seconds later which misses of course, but fortunately the Rockets miss a 3 as well so 55 seconds left and you think ok just run some offense and run it out. Nope, a travel call 4 seconds later leads to a made 3 with 38 seconds left. So at 16 you have to be sweating a bit. Sure enough same scrub takes another 3 just 8 seconds into the possession and misses of course which leads to the last dagger 3 (for bettors at least) and finally the Nuggets decide to milk the last 15 seconds of the game.

Not quite a fix, but still that's bad. Markus Howard, who never plays with good reason, cost you a bet if you laid the 14.
 
#16
That's a hugely horrific bad beat.

If anyone had a big bet on that, it would have been nice to buy some insurance via live betting. Like +14 +2000, if it were possible.

More realistically there would be an option for something like +24 -115 to go for a middle, etc.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#17
I didn't watch it and fortunately I didn't bet it. But reading the play by play I can imagine the horror if you watched the end.

You're up 24 and you block a shot with under 1:30 left, can't get much better. Except when you don't get control of the ball and then it turns into a made 3 so up 21. Then a Nuggets scrub turns the ball over just 7 seconds later and its dunked right away so up 19 with 1:15 left, still in decent shape. Then the guy who turned it over instead of dribbling out some clock takes a 3 just 7 seconds later which misses of course, but fortunately the Rockets miss a 3 as well so 55 seconds left and you think ok just run some offense and run it out. Nope, a travel call 4 seconds later leads to a made 3 with 38 seconds left. So at 16 you have to be sweating a bit. Sure enough same scrub takes another 3 just 8 seconds into the possession and misses of course which leads to the last dagger 3 (for bettors at least) and finally the Nuggets decide to milk the last 15 seconds of the game.

Not quite a fix, but still that's bad. Markus Howard, who never plays with good reason, cost you a bet if you laid the 14.
Gotta think we will be seeing that Monday when SVP does his.......Bad Beats
 
#22
Found a nice one tonight, Chi/Mia ov50.5 for the first quarter. While these aren't high scoring teams, look at their line scores. Both rarely play under this number in the first quarter. Miami plays good defense in the second half, but rarely puts out that much effort in the first quarter. While playing quarters is subject to a team just shooting like total crap, there is a ton of value in this one

I have done quite well this year beating the simple algos the books use to set quarterly lines and totals. I'm surprised few pay attention to quarters as much as the halves and games. Its a bit more random of course, but value is value.
 
#23
I noticed, last season i think, in the latter part of it, that NBA 1Q unders were cashing like crazy. Not just like MLB dogs recently for a week or two, but for like 4 weeks at least. And the books weren't adjusting to it; after all they, & i, had no idea how long it would last. I suppose playoffs races had something to do with it.
 
#24
I noticed, last season i think, in the latter part of it, that NBA 1Q unders were cashing like crazy. Not just like MLB dogs recently for a week or two, but for like 4 weeks at least. And the books weren't adjusting to it; after all they, & i, had no idea how long it would last. I suppose playoffs races had something to do with it.
They have very basic algos they do not change. Spreads and totals follow a chart basically based on full game numbers. First quarter usually just above 1/4 of total game score since NBA sees a little more scoring early, but it's about half point adjustment. Miami games have five points on average more scored in Q1 than Q4. So you can bet away on these angles. Same with Knicks, I cashed so many winners on them in first quarter, pretty much bet them almost every game for awhile. Some teams show big difference between home and road so I use caution on those, but it's pretty surprising they don't adjust the numbers on these tendencies.
 
#25
"Chicago @ New York
Bulls (26-35)
— Chicago lost seven of its last 11 games SU.
— Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games.

Knicks (34-28)
— New York won 9 of last 10 games (12-1 ATS last 13).
— Knicks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
— Over is 10-3 in New York’s last 13 games

— Knicks won five of last seven series games
— Bulls are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Manhattan.
— Four of last six series games stayed under."



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Line opened NY -5.5, now at -4, according to:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/


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#26
How much of the LA teams troubles are due to performance issues and how much is related to chicanery in trying to line up their favored matchups? Feels like the Clippers would love to get #4 seed, sets up a likely matchup with Portland or Dallas and then maybe Phoenix in second round. Lakers can bitch all they want about the play ins, but they figure to get a shot at Phoenix or Utah first by finishing in the 7+ range. Going through the play in adds an element of risk, but I think they'd rather avoid an LAC or Den matchup in the first round. We'll see over the next few games, I could see the Lakers mailing it in with the LBJ talk about how he might not be able to play and AD talking about how hard it is to play 30 minutes. The Clippers have some easy games, if they inexplicably lose a few then you'll know what they are up to. The Lakers game could be hilarious, every star resting on both teams.
 
#31
I have no idea what the Knicks cap is like but one of the very few teams that has developed true chemistry with the group. If they could land one more scoring star, team contends. Julius Randle deserves to be in the MVP race. Talk about a stud....
 
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