I'm a lifelong Suns fan but always been a massive skeptic of their chances. Just a fair disclaimer to start with.
I think this series will look very similar to the Clippers series. I don't buy that Giannis is going to play effectively at any point in this series. I think he'll give it a go at some point, but no way he's that effective and good chance he either reinjures it or is just so ineffective with that injury that he's back to the bench. Normal recovery time is 4-6 weeks and he needs a full recovery because a bum knee takes away what makes him great. That all being said, Giannis is exactly the player the Bucks need to beat the Suns and I get why the Bucks are telling the story that he could return. Lopez facing Ayton will be garbage on the defensive end, I'd fully expect the Bucks to go small ball for much of the game.
I expect the Suns to do as they did in the Lakers series and Clippers series, come out with fire and execution and win game one and then struggle with the opponents adjustments and keeping their execution level up in game two. This is a real challenge with a young team and a coach that isn't great with in game adjustments. We'll see how long the Bucks try Lopez out there at center and maybe he hits some shots to stay on the floor, but eventually he's going to be a big liability with the pick n roll and just overall inside game. He didn't have to respect Capela's offense, just his rebounds, but Ayton is elevating his game at last right now. That inside edge is really important to all analysis because I fully expect the Suns to go after that edge constantly until its stopped.
The rest of the matchups feel like edges to the Suns, especially if Bridges and Crowder step up with efficient play. I respect Holiday's defense on CP3 and think Middleton will get his points because he'll attack Booker where he can. The rest of the Bucks though, just not at the same level of the Suns without a 90% or better Giannis. While both teams got breaks with injured opponents along the way, the path the Bucks faced seems easier and I really wonder if they are at this point if Trae doesn't get hurt.
I think the 5-6 point lines at home are about right for the Suns and believe the teams (ex Giannis) are about even in Milwaukee and expect lines around that. Probably some small value on Suns -220 or so because a lot of that price reflects hopes Giannis is back and I'd bet against his ability to change the series, if he even plays at all.