Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Re: NFL Fantasy Football News/Articles - ESPN Insider 1 New Article Added 11/2/06)
Re: NFL Fantasy Football News/Articles - ESPN Insider 1 New Article Added 11/2/06)
Nov. 3, 2006, 3:48 PM
Carroll: Culpepper, Leftwich and Green
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By Will Carroll
ESPN.com
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Want a fantasy advantage? Here's a quick, one-word lesson for you -- context. Everything in football has context, but it's not always apparent. The loss of a lineman can mean nothing in the case of Kevin Jones or quite a bit in the case of the Seahawks. A defense like the Raiders can look like the best passing defense in the league, but looked at in context, they're only top third, according to the geniuses at Pro Football Prospectus. You want to avoid a receiver matched up with Champ Bailey, but the No. 2 WR can run wild, especially if he's someone like Reggie Wayne. Here's a quick test for you -- your running back gets the ball and runs for 9 yards. Was it a good or bad play? The correct answer is that we don't know from just that information. On first-and-10, a 9-yard run is gold. The offense can do anything on the next play. If the 9-yard dash came on third-and-15, the punter's coming. Winning fantasy teams look beyond the ink-stained stats of yesterday, past the lists of probable and questionable, and dig into the meaty context that feeds a championship run.
Let's get to the injuries:
It's stunning that it's come to this. Several published reports indicate that the Dolphins are considering placing Daunte Culpepper on the IR. Culpepper's rehab has slowed due to inflammation in the knee, mostly centered on his patellar tendon. Some have wildly speculated that Culpepper's problems are indication that ACL returns are being rushed, though Carson Palmer, Deuce McAllister, and others are showing no similar problems (and winning.) Nick Saban is publicly saying that the injured reserve option is going to be considered at some point, but it's something that's already being discussed among in the Dolphins front office, according to league sources. Culpepper showed no real signs during his weeks of play that the knee was troubling him, nor is the patellar tendon problem that's being described a normal complication of a ligament repair. While this drama plays out, fantasy owners need to cut bait on Culpepper if they haven't already. For me, the lesson of Culpepper is not to be distracted by a rehab if the play of the player prior to the injury doesn't deserve consideration.
Chris Mortenson is reporting that David Garrard will start for the Jags this week as Byron Leftwich gets another week off to try and heal up his ankle. According to sources, his ankle is still quite painful and may be affecting him mentally as much as physically. An immobile QB like Leftwich shouldn't see as much effect of this type of injury, but pain can have both conscious and unconscious effects. The normal physical effects are easy to deal with but things like being hesitant to take a hit or not being able to plant solidly are things that can affect a player even after his injury has healed. That's one big reason why injuries often have broad ranges. For a QB with Leftwich's long, pitcher-style throwing motion, the plant and land is going to be a big factor, but the longer he's out, the more that Garrard's play will be a factor in the decision on when and if to bring him back. With his good matchups down the stretch, if Leftwich is able to play, he'll be a solid fantasy option, because Garrard didn't prove himself to fantasy players last week.
Did you draft Shaun Alexander with the first pick? Judging from my e-mails, we should get some sort of support group together for those that did. You seem depressed and despondent, so I don't mean to make it worse when I tell you that Alexander isn't a sure thing for next week. I don't mean this Monday, the one where he's definitely out, but next Sunday, the one that we thought would be Alexander's comeback after Monday's bone scan. That scan, I'm told, showed that the bone is still healing. Yes, still healing, which means that Alexander does not yet possess a fully fused fourth metatarsal. His slow progress is worrisome; there's no way to know all the factors in play here, from treatment efficacy to medication to genetics. All fantasy players know is that Alexander is fast turning into a player that has killed their season and is losing even that return upside we expected from him. The Seahawks are also treading water across the offense. Matt Hasselbeck is still weeks away, Bobby Engram is closer to a comeback from a thyroid condition but is more likely to be back next week, and Darrell Jackson is banged up. Unless you really believe in Seneca Wallace, the Seahawks offense is a fantasy wasteland.
Seven-on-seven football is a great Texas tradition and if you ever get the chance to go under the dimmer Friday night lights of a small Texas town, do it. It's almost as good as a Permian or Plano game. I mention this because seven-on-seven is a big indicator of just how close Trent Green is to returning. He ran the offense during this week's practices in KC and could be cleared to play as early as next week. Make no mistake -- once Herm Edwards gets the all-clear, Green will be back despite the solid play of Damon Huard. Green's had all the time he and his doctors feel necessary to return from that devastating concussion. He's passed every test and if he's available in your league, now's the time to snap him up if you need a QB. If you have Huard, trading him high before the St. Louis shootout is a good plan.
It seems like any team that faces the Pats this year will spend the week prior to the game diddling with their injury report. The Colts have been filling up the report all season, so this week's really no different. Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will both play this week without any real limitations, though any problem Rhodes has will amplify the slow change to Addai in the feature back role. I spoke with some Colts players and they told me that the one deficiency in Addai's game is blocking. That keeps Rhodes in the game to help protect Peyton Manning. Manning uses play action to protect himself, meaning Rhodes will get carries when the team needs to establish the run. It's a tough fantasy situation to read, though the Pats complex defenses may shift the balance either way.
While the media focuses on Mark Brunell's tenuous hold on the QB job, the injury concerns for Clinton Portis and Santana Moss are vexing fantasy players. Portis has spent the year in this column, banged up in one way or the other since the preseason. Injuries tend to cascade in this way as well, so it's tough to expect Portis to suddenly get healthy and productive again. That makes Ladell Betts a better fantasy option, especially at the goal line. For Moss, his positive MRI last week hasn't translated into practice reps and he'll be a game-time decision. The injuries and uncertainty make me hesitant to count too much on any Redskin offensive player this week.
Tatum Bell has not one, but two bad feet. His turf toe was so bad last week that he reportedly asked out of the game after halftime, and when coach Mike Shanahan called on him late in the game, he buckled from the pain. Another week of treatment has improved the situation, but not so much that I think he's a solid fantasy option. Mike Bell is going to split carries with him according to the gameplan, but much like last week, Mike Bell is more likely to get the bulk of carries. This isn't the typical Shanahan-anigans with running backs. It's a reaction to an injury and one that will only limit Tatum Bell as long as the injury limits him. Tatum is the Bell you want long term; he's the No. 1 when healthy. (For more on turf toe, head over to ESPN360 and check out my video explaining the problem as well as more from The Fantasy Show.) Bumps and Bruises: Reggie Bush is going to play this week and even with the sprained ankle, he's a threat to break a big play on the Tampa D. ... Joe Horn is dealing with a mild groin strain. I don't expect a big fantasy impact. ... He's on bye, but Larry Fitzgerald is running and ready to go once the Cards get back on the field. The hamstring strain looks to be a bad memory. ... Look for David Givens to be back on the roster for this week's Titans game. The thumb is healing, but not back to full-go. ... My friends at Kerlan-Jobe concur with Curtis Martin. His aborted comeback didn't have medical science on his side and he'd have likely needed more than a week between starts to heal up. Think of him as the worst case scenario for Brian Westbrook. ... If My Chemical Romance's new "The Black Parade" isn't the best album of the year, then "The Crane Wife" by The Decemberists has to be. ... Give Greg Jennings one more week before he's back. The ankle is going to severely limit him, despite the Packers saying he's a game-time decision. ... Wanna talk some fantasy football? I love doing radio and spent this morning talking with my buddies Gresh and Zo in Providence and John DiTulio in Rochester between calls to my sources. My e-mail address is below if you want me on your radio show.
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Re: NFL Fantasy Football News/Articles - ESPN Insider 1 New Article Added 11/2/06)
Nov. 3, 2006, 3:48 PM
Carroll: Culpepper, Leftwich and Green
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<!-- firstName = Will --><!-- lastName = Carroll -->
By Will Carroll
ESPN.com
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Want a fantasy advantage? Here's a quick, one-word lesson for you -- context. Everything in football has context, but it's not always apparent. The loss of a lineman can mean nothing in the case of Kevin Jones or quite a bit in the case of the Seahawks. A defense like the Raiders can look like the best passing defense in the league, but looked at in context, they're only top third, according to the geniuses at Pro Football Prospectus. You want to avoid a receiver matched up with Champ Bailey, but the No. 2 WR can run wild, especially if he's someone like Reggie Wayne. Here's a quick test for you -- your running back gets the ball and runs for 9 yards. Was it a good or bad play? The correct answer is that we don't know from just that information. On first-and-10, a 9-yard run is gold. The offense can do anything on the next play. If the 9-yard dash came on third-and-15, the punter's coming. Winning fantasy teams look beyond the ink-stained stats of yesterday, past the lists of probable and questionable, and dig into the meaty context that feeds a championship run.
Let's get to the injuries:
It's stunning that it's come to this. Several published reports indicate that the Dolphins are considering placing Daunte Culpepper on the IR. Culpepper's rehab has slowed due to inflammation in the knee, mostly centered on his patellar tendon. Some have wildly speculated that Culpepper's problems are indication that ACL returns are being rushed, though Carson Palmer, Deuce McAllister, and others are showing no similar problems (and winning.) Nick Saban is publicly saying that the injured reserve option is going to be considered at some point, but it's something that's already being discussed among in the Dolphins front office, according to league sources. Culpepper showed no real signs during his weeks of play that the knee was troubling him, nor is the patellar tendon problem that's being described a normal complication of a ligament repair. While this drama plays out, fantasy owners need to cut bait on Culpepper if they haven't already. For me, the lesson of Culpepper is not to be distracted by a rehab if the play of the player prior to the injury doesn't deserve consideration.
Chris Mortenson is reporting that David Garrard will start for the Jags this week as Byron Leftwich gets another week off to try and heal up his ankle. According to sources, his ankle is still quite painful and may be affecting him mentally as much as physically. An immobile QB like Leftwich shouldn't see as much effect of this type of injury, but pain can have both conscious and unconscious effects. The normal physical effects are easy to deal with but things like being hesitant to take a hit or not being able to plant solidly are things that can affect a player even after his injury has healed. That's one big reason why injuries often have broad ranges. For a QB with Leftwich's long, pitcher-style throwing motion, the plant and land is going to be a big factor, but the longer he's out, the more that Garrard's play will be a factor in the decision on when and if to bring him back. With his good matchups down the stretch, if Leftwich is able to play, he'll be a solid fantasy option, because Garrard didn't prove himself to fantasy players last week.
Did you draft Shaun Alexander with the first pick? Judging from my e-mails, we should get some sort of support group together for those that did. You seem depressed and despondent, so I don't mean to make it worse when I tell you that Alexander isn't a sure thing for next week. I don't mean this Monday, the one where he's definitely out, but next Sunday, the one that we thought would be Alexander's comeback after Monday's bone scan. That scan, I'm told, showed that the bone is still healing. Yes, still healing, which means that Alexander does not yet possess a fully fused fourth metatarsal. His slow progress is worrisome; there's no way to know all the factors in play here, from treatment efficacy to medication to genetics. All fantasy players know is that Alexander is fast turning into a player that has killed their season and is losing even that return upside we expected from him. The Seahawks are also treading water across the offense. Matt Hasselbeck is still weeks away, Bobby Engram is closer to a comeback from a thyroid condition but is more likely to be back next week, and Darrell Jackson is banged up. Unless you really believe in Seneca Wallace, the Seahawks offense is a fantasy wasteland.
Seven-on-seven football is a great Texas tradition and if you ever get the chance to go under the dimmer Friday night lights of a small Texas town, do it. It's almost as good as a Permian or Plano game. I mention this because seven-on-seven is a big indicator of just how close Trent Green is to returning. He ran the offense during this week's practices in KC and could be cleared to play as early as next week. Make no mistake -- once Herm Edwards gets the all-clear, Green will be back despite the solid play of Damon Huard. Green's had all the time he and his doctors feel necessary to return from that devastating concussion. He's passed every test and if he's available in your league, now's the time to snap him up if you need a QB. If you have Huard, trading him high before the St. Louis shootout is a good plan.
It seems like any team that faces the Pats this year will spend the week prior to the game diddling with their injury report. The Colts have been filling up the report all season, so this week's really no different. Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will both play this week without any real limitations, though any problem Rhodes has will amplify the slow change to Addai in the feature back role. I spoke with some Colts players and they told me that the one deficiency in Addai's game is blocking. That keeps Rhodes in the game to help protect Peyton Manning. Manning uses play action to protect himself, meaning Rhodes will get carries when the team needs to establish the run. It's a tough fantasy situation to read, though the Pats complex defenses may shift the balance either way.
While the media focuses on Mark Brunell's tenuous hold on the QB job, the injury concerns for Clinton Portis and Santana Moss are vexing fantasy players. Portis has spent the year in this column, banged up in one way or the other since the preseason. Injuries tend to cascade in this way as well, so it's tough to expect Portis to suddenly get healthy and productive again. That makes Ladell Betts a better fantasy option, especially at the goal line. For Moss, his positive MRI last week hasn't translated into practice reps and he'll be a game-time decision. The injuries and uncertainty make me hesitant to count too much on any Redskin offensive player this week.
Tatum Bell has not one, but two bad feet. His turf toe was so bad last week that he reportedly asked out of the game after halftime, and when coach Mike Shanahan called on him late in the game, he buckled from the pain. Another week of treatment has improved the situation, but not so much that I think he's a solid fantasy option. Mike Bell is going to split carries with him according to the gameplan, but much like last week, Mike Bell is more likely to get the bulk of carries. This isn't the typical Shanahan-anigans with running backs. It's a reaction to an injury and one that will only limit Tatum Bell as long as the injury limits him. Tatum is the Bell you want long term; he's the No. 1 when healthy. (For more on turf toe, head over to ESPN360 and check out my video explaining the problem as well as more from The Fantasy Show.) Bumps and Bruises: Reggie Bush is going to play this week and even with the sprained ankle, he's a threat to break a big play on the Tampa D. ... Joe Horn is dealing with a mild groin strain. I don't expect a big fantasy impact. ... He's on bye, but Larry Fitzgerald is running and ready to go once the Cards get back on the field. The hamstring strain looks to be a bad memory. ... Look for David Givens to be back on the roster for this week's Titans game. The thumb is healing, but not back to full-go. ... My friends at Kerlan-Jobe concur with Curtis Martin. His aborted comeback didn't have medical science on his side and he'd have likely needed more than a week between starts to heal up. Think of him as the worst case scenario for Brian Westbrook. ... If My Chemical Romance's new "The Black Parade" isn't the best album of the year, then "The Crane Wife" by The Decemberists has to be. ... Give Greg Jennings one more week before he's back. The ankle is going to severely limit him, despite the Packers saying he's a game-time decision. ... Wanna talk some fantasy football? I love doing radio and spent this morning talking with my buddies Gresh and Zo in Providence and John DiTulio in Rochester between calls to my sources. My e-mail address is below if you want me on your radio show.
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