NFL Week 13
- Thread starter Valuist
- Start date
WildBill
2
Hmm would I rather be a #1 pick and a starting QB in the NFL or a potential baseball player? Sorry but no way I'd pick the A's over where he is now. As long as he doesn't blow out his body he's going to get $30-40m per year in a few years.
I also don't see the Cardinals as hot garbage, I see them as an 8-9 win team, which isn't surprising as they are still rebuilding. Stealing Hopkins for the old beat up Chevy RB they had accelerated their path, but it would have been foolish to think they were going to be NFC leaders after what they had last year. Teams around .500 or just above are always going to be flawed and have bad stretches, but they could be a real force next year with a couple of signings and picks.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Murray isn't running as much, think the shoulder is still bothering him. Outside of the Hail Mary, Hopkins hasn't done much for a month or so either. They could really use an ass-kicker on the OL with their first pick.
How many millions do you need? A running QB is going to get beat up, and beat up badly. There's a reason why average life expectancy for former NFL players is around 55-56 years.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
My friend (57 YO) is experiencing some memory issues and he played in the late 80's.
There are a lot of RGIII types who flame out after an injury. I think baseball would have been the better move also.
WildBill
2
Money ain't everything, you are right. You get the chance to be an MLB player, but lots of first round picks don't really make it. Or you can be a starter at the premier position in US team sports. These guys playing football know its violent, know its dangerous, know the risks. But they do it anyways because that's the glory they want. Lets say Murray went baseball and ended up with a career like Jayson Werth, which is highly speculative because who knows what he could have accomplished. Werth got a great FA contract, had some good years. How many people really remember him now and how about in 10 years? You win the Heisman, go #1, play QB for many years and maybe get some playoff glory while probably getting more money than Werth. Even if the money wasn't what it is, which would you rather do as a competitive athlete?
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Two games already postponed....Steelers against Washington and the Raven game.....
X-Files
2
Anyone like the Jets?
Balsy.
Jets have been improving, though, recently, while LV is going in the opposite direction.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30450454/las-vegas-raiders-josh-jacobs-johnathan-abram
+9.5 -113 @ Pinnacle according to:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/
Though presently OTB onsite:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/football/nfl/matchups
Do Jets get first win of the year in spoiler role?
Balsy.
Jets have been improving, though, recently, while LV is going in the opposite direction.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30450454/las-vegas-raiders-josh-jacobs-johnathan-abram
+9.5 -113 @ Pinnacle according to:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/
Though presently OTB onsite:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/football/nfl/matchups
Do Jets get first win of the year in spoiler role?
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I've been on them the last few weeks. I want to take them, but LV was soooo bad last week.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
No Jacobs....
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
if they can score 17-20 points they cover. I’m not sure the Jets can. The Jets run defense has been improving. If there are wind issues tomorrow, that will help them also.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
I’m under 47...
Still haven't touched the game. The Jets are so bad, I just can't do it.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Teasing the Raiders is so square, but you only need them to win also.
It seems tempting to play too many overs with individual player props, so if you do find an under you like, definitely play it.
DeShaun Watson Under 273 1/2 pass yards (-117). The key here is Fuller, one of the top deep threats in the league, is out. Cooks is ok but really more of a slot guy. I think Watson is going to be dinking and dunking
TJ Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-108). The Bears get Hicks back and with Swift likely out, the Lions aren't going to do much on the ground. Golladay is still out Hockenson coming off a 5 catch for 89 yard effort in T-giving and looked good. He's gone over 44.5 yards in 7 of the Lions' 11 games.
Mohammed Sanu Over 21.5 receiving yards (-117). Ok, Golladay is out. Amendola is back, but this is his first game back, so he likely isn't 100%. Sanu got his first catch w the Lions on T-giving, a TD, but now gets a full 10 days to study the playbook. 2 catches should put him over the total.
Betting overs against the Bears pass D? Absolutely. Here's the opposing QB passer ratings against them in their last 5 games:
Rodgers 132
Cousins 100.5
Tannehill 105
Brees 110
Goff 108.
Granted, those aren't the Hintons or Lock or Darnolds of the league but Stafford should have a decent day.
Stafford over 35.5 attempts (-130). I think only an injury keeps this from going over. His thumb is banged up, so that's not an impossibility, and Mack and Co could rough him up. But if he stays in one piece, how does he not throw 36 passes? Swift likely out; Peterson and Carryon likely don't get to 20 rushes combined. I prefer the attempts over the yardage as if the Bears D does come to play, that 251 yardage total will not be a lock.
DeShaun Watson Under 273 1/2 pass yards (-117). The key here is Fuller, one of the top deep threats in the league, is out. Cooks is ok but really more of a slot guy. I think Watson is going to be dinking and dunking
TJ Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-108). The Bears get Hicks back and with Swift likely out, the Lions aren't going to do much on the ground. Golladay is still out Hockenson coming off a 5 catch for 89 yard effort in T-giving and looked good. He's gone over 44.5 yards in 7 of the Lions' 11 games.
Mohammed Sanu Over 21.5 receiving yards (-117). Ok, Golladay is out. Amendola is back, but this is his first game back, so he likely isn't 100%. Sanu got his first catch w the Lions on T-giving, a TD, but now gets a full 10 days to study the playbook. 2 catches should put him over the total.
Betting overs against the Bears pass D? Absolutely. Here's the opposing QB passer ratings against them in their last 5 games:
Rodgers 132
Cousins 100.5
Tannehill 105
Brees 110
Goff 108.
Granted, those aren't the Hintons or Lock or Darnolds of the league but Stafford should have a decent day.
Stafford over 35.5 attempts (-130). I think only an injury keeps this from going over. His thumb is banged up, so that's not an impossibility, and Mack and Co could rough him up. But if he stays in one piece, how does he not throw 36 passes? Swift likely out; Peterson and Carryon likely don't get to 20 rushes combined. I prefer the attempts over the yardage as if the Bears D does come to play, that 251 yardage total will not be a lock.
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FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Kerryon over RECs is worth looking at also.
Not going to touch the Raiders. The Jets are horrible, but even they are capable of winning a game or two. WRs all back, so they have some playmakers. If Cincy could beat Tenn, its not impossible here. 4th road game in 6 weeks and 3rd in Eastern time zone. That's not a good spot for LV. Jacobs out doesn't help either. I know Gruden has vowed the stupidity will be cut (140 penalty yards and 5 turnovers) but let's not forget; the Raiders got blitzed by the Jets just last year. I don't believe in NFL revenge. That could've been a matchup issue.
Absolutely. I have enough props for that game but I can see that. Peterson has stone hands so screens will likely be to Carryon.
choslamshe
EOG Master
Thanks Valuist. All of these make total sense which is what scares me off. Stafford is questionable and absolutely hurt. Some of these pedestrian totals (Hockenson/Sanu) shouldn't really be affected by who is under center. These are the bets at game's end im always scratching my head how I lost. GL to ya
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I understand. So many of the props look easy, almost too easy to go over. Stafford was listed as questionable going into that T-Giving day game so with 10 days break, I will be suprised if he doesn't take all the snaps. But yeah, he could get roughed up during the game.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Lions don't exactly look fired up today.
blueline
EOG Master
I think Lombardi and or Mike Palm were handing out CLE...Amal was having none of it
Here's a bet I thought was an easy win, but ended up being very close. I had Montgomery, the Bears RB, Over 71.5 rush yards. He had 62 yards in the first half. Then he starts struggling. On his 14th carry, he gets to 72 yards. Then on carry 15, he loses 3 yards to go back to 69.. He ends up getting 3 more yards before a big zero on a 4th and 1 to finish the game at 72.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Goes out with an injury with 2 RECs. That's my luck.
Speaking of poorly coached teams, the Chargers have allowed TWO special teams TD's today. The ST's have killed them all year.
Speaking of coaching - The Pats have six wins with Cam throwing for FOUR TD's this season. Cam has run for 11.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Hell of a call on the GMen today Kane.
kane
EOG master
Thanks, still a long way to go though, and for those that care I didn't get the best of the number, I'm catching 10, could have waited and got 11, hoping it wont matter
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I'm really disappointed I didn't play NE in the contest. This is men against boys out there.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
That probably becomes the best available job, surpassing Houston. Tons of talent, and a franchise QB. Houston has the better Franchise QB, but the cupboard is more bare.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Do you think Leftwich gets a HC job this offseason?