Opening vs. Actual Line at Time of Bet (incl. picks)

#1
Rainbow started a thread the other day about the ability to make smart bets without knowing the line in advance. Basically, he was taking a swipe at the handicapping ability of most EOG players (and quite legitimately so). http://forums.eog.com/showthread.ph...TO-HANDICAP-BASEBALL?highlight=lines+baseball


I agree that most here don't have a clue about how to bet baseball, but not for the same reason. I contend that it really isn't necessary to know what the actual betting line is so long as it isn't too far off the opening line for most bets, so long as the same pitchers are starting.


Here's a synopsis of my rationale (it'd take a book to detail it).


I look at the opening lines because they are computer generated, and represent historical data; iow, in a perfect world, the line best suited to generate optimal action and profit to the book. Then I X-out all games outside my betting parameters (+108 to +160). So why do I do this?


Simple. I just hate it when I lose a big odds fave - I figure that now I've got to win 2-4 games to make up for that loss. Betting the big dog, you can lose 6-10 games in a row on those things - and that's no fun, even though the average is of course, much less. No-go for me.


The small odds games are too damn iffy, plus I get very little for my money betting the dog. Another no-go.


So I start with just those games (excluding Interleague) within my betting parameters. I do my homework, and place my bet - once again, only if the starting pitchers are the same.


If the line has moved up or down 10-20%, no big deal - that's just someone else's opinion that I don't really care about. I will sometimes pass on a bet I otherwise would've bet if the line has changed too much.


Most seasons I make money. In 2011, I made enough money to cover every other season in which I lost money, and then some. (My picks for that season were documented at covers.com under the same handle, but EOG rules prohibit a link.)


April is seldom a solid month for me, so I don't bet much. Even so, I liked some games today more than that which I've seen lately. Here they are:


DET at MIN 02:10 PM
DET -126


WAS at STL 02:15 PM
WAS +129


TOR at TB 06:10 PM
TOR +124


CHW at BAL 07:05 PM
CHW +140


NYY at BOS 07:10 PM
BOS -128
 
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