People are just stupid

Buddy of mine figured on the Broncos bye we should meet up at a sports bar in Denver. I get there about 30 minutes before action kicks off. Met some nice people, but man these people made it quite clear people are just dumbasses when it comes to sports betting. Sat amongst an otherwise pretty educated crowd. One is an engineer at Lockheed, another just started his first job out of law school at a major company while his girlfriend seems to like to bet too and she's got a good sales job. There were others, but those stood out because get these brilliant nuggets I got out of this crowd:
- First one of them showed up at 10:45am, 15 minutes before kickoff. He says "shit, I haven't capped the games yet, let me go look on this site I like"
- Second one says the magic words "guys I have 2 games picked but need a third 1st half bet for a parlay"
- Second one says a minute later "didn't the Bears fire their coach this week?"
- Girl says "why won't they let me make this parlay of Packers game under in the first half and under in the game?"
- Guy over at another table says in response to the girl "books know too much to let you make that bet"
- My friend (whose moderately decent, but no sharp) asks the first guy if he has any model of sports betting since he's an engineer. The response? "What would I put into a model???"
- Second guy sees me looking the odds on Tipico, obviously not one of the best known books around. He asks what book that is and I tell him they started a few months ago and he says"oh are they offshore?"
- I showed all three my folders on my phone with all my books and the girl says "wow that's way too complicated to keep track of" while her boyfriend says "aren't all the lines just the same anyways?" and then "don't all the lines come from Vegas?"
- I talked about how I got semi-lucky with the first guy because I bet Jags under 23 for first half laying some juice instead of 23.5 and getting -105 odds and his head looked like it would explode. Finally figured out the guy never has made a total bet before, let alone a totals bet on part of a game.
- The girl got excited about the Bears going up late in the game and said "well even if they blow it, I have last two minute insurance" and the boyfriend says "umm I think that was just last season for Broncos games"

There were plenty of other brilliant nuggets from a few others around us and I probably forgot 10 others I could add here, but man how do the books not take every cent from these people? I casually mentioned I am up since books opened up and the second guy said "well I'm kinda happy I haven't had to make another deposit since week 3 I think it was". When it comes to sports betting most of us that don't look for good info or post on boards like this seem like the dumbest people alive.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Great report, WildBill.

The newbies are lost.

Your story is proof that a liittle information is a dangerous thing.

One of the beauties of the NFL is that people invest six or seven hours of their Sunday afternoon to watch a slate of games and immediately think they are sports betting experts.

This same situation has occurred to me many times at different racetracks across the country.

I look around in the grandstand and clubhouse and think to myself, "If this is my competition, I'm going to win."

Unfortunately, that's not the case.

The takeout is the opponent.

Same is true in sports betting with one exception.

In horse racing, the public makes the prices.

In sports betting, the prices are shaped by bettors with winning histories wagering large sums of money.

Too bad sports bettors can't take advantage of this influx of new money that's going straight into the coffers of FanDuel and DraftKings.
 

Neveragain

EOG Veteran
Too bad sports bettors can't take advantage of this influx of new money that's going straight into the coffers of FanDuel and DraftKings.
Best way to capitalize is to buy up shares in all of the top tier Gaming companies. Gaming in the U.S. is on the cusp of mega growth.
When all of the insane marketing budgets slow down in 2-3 years the DraftKings and Fanduel shares bought today
could buy you a gated community baller villa in San José.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
EOG contributor GameBred told us to short DraftKings just the other day.

Now I'm confused.

I want that gated villa in San Jose.
 
Great report, WildBill.

The newbies are lost.

Your story is proof that a liittle information is a dangerous thing.

One of the beauties of the NFL is that people invest six or seven hours of their Sunday afternoon to watch a slate of games and immediately think they are sports betting experts.

This same situation has occurred to me many times at different racetracks across the country.

I look around in the grandstand and clubhouse and think to myself, "If this is my competition, I'm going to win."

Unfortunately, that's not the case.

The takeout is the opponent.

Same is true in sports betting with one exception.

In horse racing, the public makes the prices.

In sports betting, the prices are shaped by bettors with winning histories wagering large sums of money.

Too bad sports bettors can't take advantage of this influx of new money that's going straight into the coffers of FanDuel and DraftKings.
That money may go into their coffers one day but for now they are losing gobs of money with the overkill advertising and crazy sign up bonuses.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Just had to add to the stupidity, today I'm listening to Race Day Las Vegas as a guilty pleasure. The show is MC'ed by Ralph Siraco (JK used to lead into the show with his Track Talk show with the now deceased Patrick McQuiggan) with a collection of race handicappers who only seem to track their picks when they are ahead.

Anyway, the show is normally concluded by Jerry Jacovitz who gives his two racing picks. Then Jerry chimes in with 3 NFL picks: Steelers, Colts and WFT. Ralph dutifully looks up the rotation numbers and then comments how it would be a nice parlay. Jerry agrees, a real trifecta, and then Ralph adds that a $10 bet would return $36. Jerry agrees.

OMG, these guys have been in gambling for 40 years apiece and they can't compute what a 3 teamer pays?
 
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Just had to add to the stupidity, today I'm listening to Race Day Las Vegas as a guilty pleasure. The show is MC'ed by Ralph Siraco (JK used to lead into the show with his Track Talk show with the now deceased Patrick McQuiggan) with a collection of race handicappers who only seem to track their picks when they are ahead.

Anyway, the show is normally concluded by Jerry Jacovitz who gives his two racing picks. Then Jerry chimes in with 3 NFL picks: Steelers, Colts and WFT. Ralph dutifully looks up the rotation numbers and then comments how it would be a nice parlay. Jerry agrees, a real trifecta, and then Ralph adds that a $10 bet would return $36. Jerry agrees.

OMG, these guys have been in gambling for 40 years apiece and they can't compute what a 3 teamer pays?
Those guys have spent too much time in their lives facing insane horse racing takeout. Thats hilarious quoting the 2 team payout for a 3 teamer
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Forget calculating a 3-teamer, to even suggest such in the NFL is something beyond stupid.
Just had to add to the stupidity, today I'm listening to Race Day Las Vegas as a guilty pleasure. The show is MC'ed by Ralph Siraco (JK used to lead into the show with his Track Talk show with the now deceased Patrick McQuiggan) with a collection of race handicappers who only seem to track their picks when they are ahead.

Anyway, the show is normally concluded by Jerry Jacovitz who gives his two racing picks. Then Jerry chimes in with 3 NFL picks: Steelers, Colts and WFT. Ralph dutifully looks up the rotation numbers and then comments how it would be a nice parlay. Jerry agrees, a real trifecta, and then Ralph adds that a $10 bet would return $36. Jerry agrees.

OMG, these guys have been in gambling for 40 years apiece and they can't compute what a 3 teamer pays?


Funnier if that's the odds they are actually taking with someone
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
For anyone who REALLY want to make some money head to the books on a Saturday morning around 8A (9A start). Find a group of about 5-ish guys who look like "Average Joes" and listen to all they say. Make sure to listen to the biggest mouth there talk about the "locks" he has for the day. Wrote them own then head to the window...........and play the other side.

You will make more money than you can count doing this. I did this many years ago. The loud jackass talked about 5 plays he liked. All of them laying points. All of them laying more points on Saturday than they were when the line first opened. Jackass had no clue he was laying a bad number. He played those 5 games and went 1-4 so I went 4-1 and 2 of them were plays Jackass woulda won had he bet them earlier in the week. I'm sure Jackass and his friends lamented the "bad beats" they suffered.

Casinos don't expand by paying out money!
 
For anyone who REALLY want to make some money head to the books on a Saturday morning around 8A (9A start). Find a group of about 5-ish guys who look like "Average Joes" and listen to all they say. Make sure to listen to the biggest mouth there talk about the "locks" he has for the day. Wrote them own then head to the window...........and play the other side.

You will make more money than you can count doing this. I did this many years ago. The loud jackass talked about 5 plays he liked. All of them laying points. All of them laying more points on Saturday than they were when the line first opened. Jackass had no clue he was laying a bad number. He played those 5 games and went 1-4 so I went 4-1 and 2 of them were plays Jackass woulda won had he bet them earlier in the week. I'm sure Jackass and his friends lamented the "bad beats" they suffered.

Casinos don't expand by paying out money!
This used to be a golden strategy, but the crowds have changed in books on weekends now. With mobile betting and books in Vegas charging to just get a seat its now a lot of rich guys and old guys who seem to show up around 5am. The young bros hanging out betting sports all day crowd has diminished a lot. Not saying its gone, but yeah this used to be easy money on football weekends before the casino managements screwed with the crowd. Where you can still find it is in sports bars in any states with mobile betting. Seen it in Illinois and here in Colorado, squarest of the squares are getting into betting $20 a pop on their phones. Lucky for them $20 is throwaway money.
 
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