Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

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ComptrBob

EOG Master
When and if JK takes the lead, depending on a summer slowdown, I project he will hold the lead till next flu season (around 6 months).

Abundy will be the contender up next, needing 1,537,501 or more cases to outscore JK..
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
ComptrBob said:
When and if JK takes the lead, depending on a summer slowdown, I project he will hold the lead till next flu season (around 6 months).

Abundy will be the contender up next, needing 1,537,501 or more cases to outscore JK..
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I'll start my calls to the WHO shortly after I overtake FW.
 
jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
John Kelly said:
The race isn't over and the inquiry sign is already lit.

Similar to when a horse dumps a jockey shortly after the start of a race.
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Steward John says hold all tickets please.

Or you could have the monkey reveal the photo finish back in the old days by doing a Flintstones flash shot.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
When they get the LabCorp anti bodies test in widespread use, the case numbers will explode and the death rate will come way down.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Valuist said:
When they get the LabCorp anti bodies test in widespread use, the case numbers will explode and the death rate will come way down.
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They wont count them as positives though, , the situation will be as you describe . it could very well show that this is in fact about as deadly as the common flu, perhaps a tad more.

Flu is .1%, as of now Covid is still guessed to be closer to 1%, but many think it's less..
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Valuist said:
Getting the deaths right should count 10x more than the case numbers. JMNSHO
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New antibody test show at least 2.7 million people have had it in NY state alone - that would mean maybe 25-30 million nationwide, factoring in that NY state has more than anywhere else.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Valuist said:
Based on Cuomo's comments today, it's already started. 14% of those given the antibody test came up positive.
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Yup, that's statewide, in NY city it was 21%, and he missed the point that all the people who've tested positive in the last month or so would not be included in that stat(100's of thousands), since they presumably are still quarantining and likely dont have antibodies yet either. So the real number is a fair bit higher, maybe 30% in NY city, 20% statewide.

Then you have the wind down period - where a siimilar(a bit smaller) would get infected, pushing the numbers even higher. There cant be a rd 2 in the fall, at least not in NY.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Valuist said:
Getting the deaths right should count 10x more than the case numbers. JMNSHO
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Obviously, it was EJD that set the "Death" weighting at 25X of the "Cases" (ratio of cases to deaths) which I thought was too low, but he was very close to making them equally weighted, now the ratio is around 18X. This ratio has been going down slowly for the entire contest (and conversely the ratio of deaths to cases going up).

I want to be sure I understand, you would want the ratio to be 10X instead of 25X?
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
ComptrBob said:
Obviously, it was EJD that set the "Death" weighting at 25X of the "Cases" (ratio of cases to deaths) which I thought was too low, but he was very close to making them equally weighted, now the ratio is around 18X. This ratio has been going down slowly for the entire contest (and conversely the ratio of deaths to cases going up).

I want to be sure I understand, you would want the ratio to be 10X instead of 25X?
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I really don't know. Once the antibody testing is widespread, the case numbers will explode. That is assuming they are counted, which I'm not sure they will do. Case numbers have been questionable all along.
 
E

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
ComptrBob said:
Obviously, it was EJD that set the "Death" weighting at 25X of the "Cases" (ratio of cases to deaths) which I thought was too low, but he was very close to making them equally weighted, now the ratio is around 18X. This ratio has been going down slowly for the entire contest (and conversely the ratio of deaths to cases going up).

I want to be sure I understand, you would want the ratio to be 10X instead of 25X?
Click to expand...
Valuist said:
I really don't know. Once the antibody testing is widespread, the case numbers will explode. That is assuming they are counted, which I'm not sure they will do. Case numbers have been questionable all along.
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The idea was, at the end of the contest, to have them weighted as equally as possible. I went back and forth for a while in my mind over the correct multiple to use.

I arrived at a 4% "official" mortality rate based on an "actual" mortality rate of 0.5%-1%, and there being 4x to 8x more cases than will actually end up being counted, altough now I fear that number is way too low. (probably more like 10x-15x in actuality.)
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Abundy said:
I was drinking when I posted my bet. My bet was supposed to read 200 thousand deaths. 2 million cases
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You're going to be way short on cases and too high on deaths re: the 2m cases and 200k deaths. Based on those numbers, you'd still be part of the field.
 
A

Abundy

EOG Addicted
I agree Value. With all the testing going on now. We will find a lot of people will test positive that had few symptoms. There immune systems are strong enough to fight it off. It is deadly for the elderly and people with underlying health issues
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
reality count is 7,000,000ish cases 18,000ish deaths. how many of 53K dead if no virus? probably 52,500. if a urban hospital book cooker punches in a death code to make the hospital an extra 40K you better believe they will.
 
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