Most of the discrepancies are based on take out, and guaranteed pools. Mohawk has 50K guarantee in the pick 5 and the first pick 4. They eclipse those easily if the fields are big enough. On Saturady as the pick 5 generally has close to if not more than 100K in it.
But singling a big horse goes both ways. I have a decent strat I am not going to talk a lot about but will give Mohawk tonight as a remedial example. But you have multiple tickets with singles on each one then you have some that are spread then you have a few with alls. Obviously going to have to get a little deep and sometimes even for 20 centers youre looking at 169-218 type amounts across all the tickets. And sometimes you hit them on the 4.20 cent options. Sometimes you have all the numbers right but not on the same ticket. But having them pay off would have cost maybe 800 bucks for 20 cents, which in a vast majority of the times that does happen would still be profitable, but for all the ones you cash and lose you would end up losing money overall.
I figure if you cant hit a 20 cent pick 5 for less than 200 bucks (500 to cash the dollar one) then youre seeing stuff that isnt there. Or not seeing obvious ones. Or trying to hard to make a combination that you hope hits and pay a lot out of something that isnt possible.
But like I said having a 1/9 shot get beat isnt a guarantee. Especially if the next obvious horse wins. It just turns a 100 dollar Pick 5 into a 3 hundred dollar one.
Mohawk tonight. good example. the rail horse in race one should be a semi easy single. Obviously can make a case for a couple others in there, but that one even with the rail should go off less than 1/1, but if the 6,7,8 win, even if one of them is 8/1 the 'jackpot' factor isnt going to go up all that much. Even the 4 is 'playable' there but for one like that (the benefit of the first leg) is you get to see the 'playable' ones in the next 4 races you have to guess.
Race two is interesting and there is a hidden horse in there. one with a ML that doesnt reflect how much it will get bet, but since its a double race youre also going to get a heads up there as well, and thats the 5. I personally dont like him but he has been 8/5 in the same class and 9/2 in first start off a Qua after he made a ton of breaks. The 2 is the obvious, and he would be a single in some fashion but this race is basically an ALL race due to a lot of factors. Even though you could probably 'handicap' it down to 4 or 5. In a race with a bunch of maiden trotters you cant really handicap it. SO that race has a little bit of everything. An 'obvious' one, a sleeper/hidden one and an all wouldnt be out of the question. Also the guy who handicaps likes the 7 (likes the 5 second) and doesnt pick the one I think will be the 'obvious' favorite at all.
Third race very similar.Its the 7 or nothing. Even in a trot race he will be 3/5 if not 2/5. He ran for the whole quarter two weeks ago was back at least 20 lengths and beat a field better than this. he is literally 4 to 5 seconds faster than this field. And if he doesnt win then thats your jack pot ticket because (or so you should think) after him there arent any clear cut ones you can use, but you also cant go all in that race either. Well I suppose you could but youre going to need to get your single single in the first 2 races (which will probably be a 10 dollar double) so even a horse that comes from out of left field your starting with a diminished pay off. (generally).
So you have a race 4 with 4 legit horses and one of those 4 should win, could be a fifth which I like but he has been scratched sick and hasnt raced in a month. So basically a 'normal' race.
Race 5 is another interesting one. Last leg so I like to spread, looks to be a two horse race but thing is those two horses are 9 and the 10, not great spots on a 7/8s track. But there are two in there that I like that are 'hidden' well one not hidden as much as you think he is going to improve. The 5 and the 7.
So basically a complete spread ticket would be 1,4,6,7,8/ALL/7/1,3,4,7/5.7.9.10. 144 for 20 cents. Which is actually a playable ticket But if it comes 1/2/7/ and any combination of the last two you have youre likely to lose money.
I will probably single the first 3 then spread the last two on one ticket That will cost 16-48 depending on how many I throw in. SO if I play both those tickets I am into the pick 5 for 160-192 and have a few 40 cent combos. But also want to have a couple options in the first race since we are singling the one on both tickets. So now youre talking another 16-48 bucks there. So now we have a total of 176-250 invested. Which can still be profitable if we get the right combination, but a total bloodbath if the first 3 races do come 1/2/7.
But thats why these things do pay because you can talk yourself in and out of so many combinations. I basically look at potential pay offs. If 'logical' horse win then I think the most its going to pay is between 200-800 for a buck. The most it can pay if its horses you cant pick with tomorrows newspaper then you can get the pool maybe, but the horse I have listed arent going to be any of those. Even if I get a couple of my 'hidden' ones Best I can see is maybe 3K for a buck, so 600 for 20 cents. With basically 2 singles.
SO would I be better off betting 300 win (price of all my pick 5 tickets) on the 1 in the first race, and then (if he wins) parlaying that on the 7 in the third? Depends on the price of the 1 in the first I guess. At even money I would say you get more with the parlay. Because then you bet 600 on the 7 in the third, even at 2/5 thats 540 profit overall. So a slight underlay to my 600 dollar guessitimate of the top pay off I would expect (which ironically would mean the 1 couldnt win the first race). But when you parlay you only need 2 winners. Or you could play the DD and then parlay that onto the 7 in the third or parlay all win money. Or bet a straight pick 3. SO many choices in the first 3 races. But on A Thursday at Mohawk with shitty trotters do you see obvious horses come in? Thus the allure of trying to manufacture something out of nothing with the pick 5.
SO 'smart' bet would be to play the single single single pick 5 ticket, AND the parlay, and hope to scoop the pot. Or maybe spread race two a little bit and throw 24-48 at the pick 5. Will depend on the double pay offs as well as what he one is paying off. Thats the beauty of having a potential single in race one and an obvious single in another leg, you get to theory craft potential pay offs (good and bad) based on knowing what 3 races are more or less going to pay.
But IMO the 'best' option is the $144 pick 5 and hope the 1 loses the first race and the 7 wins the third then you have 16 combinations in the last 2. Its basically a bet and forget. You bet rhe first race and dont have to make any decisions in any of the others.
Which brings us to the pick 4, thats the ball buster, it starts in race 4 where we like 4 (or 5) horses and also includes the pay off of the pick 5 and our 4 horses there. SO that leaves the 6th and the 7th. 6th is nice with 4 or even 5 horses with potential. Race 7 is a great race because everyone will bet the one, so if she loses it could be decent especially with the potential in the first 2. But if you go 4x4x4 then you multiply the number of horses in your 4th leg by 12.80 for a 20 center. So if you go 5 deep in the pay off leg thats 64 bucks. Which by looking at the races is actually a not so bad price.
Problem is even with 4 horses in every race those races are such that you can still get beat. But IMO youre going to have a 65-70% chance of cashing and I would say a 100% chance to go 3/4 too bad they dont pay 3/4 and that one you miss is generally by one that they either bet and you missed or one you liked but saved money to eliminate or used another one instead of him. I would rather have something I couldnt have found at all win that way I dont second guess myself.
But the pick 4 tonight should pay something, but BECAUSE there are seemingly no stick outs everyone is going to spread so that also diminishes the pay offs overall even if you happen to get a 20 dollar horse in their somewhere others are more likely to have him as well.
Yeah I know a typical long winded post, but I am sure people who bet horses a lot know the mind set and thought process.
But an old guy told me once when I was young. He said I knew everything ABOUT betting I just didnt know HOW to bet horses. He was probably right so thats why I do these things the way I do them. Because anyone can pick a few winners but getting them in the right combination is the trick, and even more so at a place like Mohawk where they shove some across that dont figure.