The Chase

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#1
Going to give this its own thread and hope things stay profitable. This is a 6 game Chase (Martingale) that fades any teams (O/U) streak that reaches 5 games. Most of this is in my other thread here but if anyone has any questions, ill try and answer them.

The Chase 2008: 8-0 (+8.00 units)
(321-1) since the 2005 season, with only the 07 Reds playing 11 straight Overs.

nothing pending.

This is not for everyone, as a loss will cost you roughly (70 units).

Hopefully the Brewers game will stay Under the total tonight, to give us a (Chase) tomorrow but the last 8 streaks (counting the braves tonight) that have reached 4 games, have ended there.

Ill keep this thread updated as plays occur, hopefully i can keep it going all season without a couple of streaks wiping me out.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#3
Re: The Chase

thanks tool, ive been playing this to win only ($20) this season. Seems small but the last play in the sequence will cost you around ($800). I think this can be proftable in the NHL and NBA as well, as i have 2 years worth of numbers that confirm this.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#4
Re: The Chase

The Chase 2008: 8-0 (+8.00 units)

play for tuesday april 22

Chase 9
a) Brewers Over 9 (-1.10) to win one unit.


back later on tuesday.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#5
Re: The Chase

I'm new to capping but I don't understand fully how this works ... or what is a martingale? How would one bet cost you 70 units?
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: The Chase

in the scenario that ive layed out, a team going (O/U) the total 11 times in a row, will cause me to lose (70 units).

your playing to win (1 Unit) and doubling after each loss. playing a max of 6 times, starting after the 5th game. stopping once a win is achieved, thus ending the (O/U) streak.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#8
Re: The Chase

thanks Coach but let me be the first to caution anyone from playing this. A $20 bet can turn into an $800 bet in less than a week. A $50 bet can turn into a bet for 2 dimes. So most here should not attempt this (maybe me) but im a glutton for punishment and trying different angels.

I know this is very successful since 2005 in baseball and is profitable since 2003, averaging at least (+40 units) over this time span. It is also profitable the last 2 seasons in both the NHL and NBA.

Im going to view this as a way to invest and spend less time on my wagering this summer. I can do this in minutes each day and have action going, sometime alot of it.

Tonight im going to be starting what i call an (Action Chase). this is a 6 game chase by me on (O/U) but done by Handicapping Only. Im only going to have one of these open at a time and this is mostly to have (Action) in the dead times of the regular (Chase).

There is only one play in the 5 game streak chase today and its listed above but here is where ill be headed this evening and probably the remainder of the summer. Ive had and got too many irons in the gambling fire, its time for me to cut back.

Im going to dedicate ($5,000) to playing both of these (Chase Systems) this summer, if i blow that bankroll, im done until football.

Here is where we stand heading into tuesday april 22. Id advise checking in from time to time but not playing. It could be like waiting for a train wreck to happen.

The Chase: 8-0 (+8.00 units) (+$160)

play for tuesday april 22

Chase 9
a) Brewers Over 9 (-1.10) $22 to win $20


Action Chase: 0-0 (0.00 units) ($0)

ill post something for tonight in the "Action Chase"......... this is purely for me to stay in the game but not spend alot of time with it and i dont recommend it for anybody else. As with (The Chase), ill only be playing to win $20.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#9
Re: The Chase

adding for tuesday night april 22

Action Chase: 0-0 (+0.00 units) ($0)

Action Chase 1
a) Padres Under 8.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

this is a chase on the Padres to play One game (Under) the posted total in their next 6. The chase is over, if a win is achieved or if 6 consecutive losses occur.

back on wednesday.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#10
Re: The Chase

So once a team has come over or under 5x in a row, you fade that team's o/u depending on what they did until it hits, doubling your bet daily?
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#11
Re: The Chase

yes, you start with game 6 but only play thru game 11. in other words, if a team goes (O/U) 11 times in a row, you get killed but that has happened only once since 2005 and only 8 times in the last 5 years. basically your hoping you can win about (100) of these before one gets you.

this is not for everyone, i would not advise playing it.
 

coachp

EOG Addicted
#12
Re: The Chase

SSI- Thanks again for explaining it- its not for everyone- but if they don't like it just sit back and watch. I don't like watching.

Thanks again- we can't win if we don't play!
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#15
Re: The Chase

Kayve: as i said, definately not for everyone.

CoachP: thats right, its "one and done" for the brewers 5 straight Unders, provided no rain moves in.

The Chase: 9-0 (+9.00 units) (+$180)
(still only 1 loss since 2005)

a few shots are setting up for tomorrow, off the top of my head, i think we should be pulling for an (Angels Under) tonight.

now i hope that im not screwing things up by playing the (Action Chase). If the 2 chases cross paths, ill play them as 2 separate chases.

On another note, the san antonio spurs have now played 4 straight Overs, they are a team noted for Unders, could be a good situation to get in tonight, with the Unders, as they face the Suns in game 2. Only guaranteed at least 4 shots more to get an Under but i think its a good set up to get a Win.

back wednesday.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#16
Re: The Chase

Coach, will you be joining me for the (Action Chase)? i may not should be doing it but i hate sitting back and waiting for a few days with no action. Ill only be doing --- one of these at a time.

I plan to ever so slightly to raise my base (Unit) wager. However for this thread and this MLB season, ill only be posting it for ($20).

I plan to run this on into next years (NBA & NHL) seasons, provided we dont get hammered this summer.
 

coachp

EOG Addicted
#17
Re: The Chase

Yes- I am on the under with the Padres! If it doesn't work out- so what. Sometimes the journey is as much fun as the destination.

I play some other stuff- some I read about- some I feel good about- but I really like the way this is going. But I am a small time guy- I've been burned the last few years. Where your roll may be 5k, mine is a little over 1.

But yes- I am with you. Thanks for letting me go for the ride. Good luck tonight.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: The Chase

i am sort of in the same boat as you.. my roll is actually quite a bit bigger but its taken me quite a few years to put together. im only allocating (5K) to do this. hopefully i wont burn thru that.

looks like the Angels go Over the total, taking away another play from us and making it (9 of last 10) to end after 4 games.

Hopefully, we can keep this thing going for quite a while, on into the other sports as well.

back on wednesday.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#19
Re: The Chase

The Chase: 9-0 (+9.00 units) (+$180)
nothing pending

Action Chase: 0-0 (0.00 units) ($0)

(Action Chase 1) is pending and there will be a play tonight on the Padres Under the total.

Ill be back this afternoon to recap tonights action. i dont have time this morning.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#22
Re: The Chase

Coach, yes i am but im going to wait until later this evening. the line is running (7 or 7.5)....

there are no plays in (The Chase) tonight but we have 4 teams sitting on 4 game streaks (mets, balt, sea and padres).

so basically im playing the (Padres Under) tonight $46 to win $42.


CoachP, im really into research and today i have been researching all 4 game streaks that end before they reach 9...... basically 4 shots at a win and not 6, with each loss costing you (18.5 units)... i have only researched this season and the record is not good: 19-2 (-18 units). I am going to research the entire (07 season) this afternoon and i have a feeling this could be profitable. basically we need to see a minimum of (20:1) to make a little money. Ill get back to you with the results, if your interested in seeing them.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#23
Re: The Chase

Coach this is why i do research. I just ran the AL east for all of the 2007 season, here is how they fared in streaks that reached at least 4 and then went to at least 8 (not nine, i mispoke earlier) we are looking at doubling only 4 teams and this is not going to be profitable.

Boston: 10-0
Balt: 11-0
Yanks: 10-1
Toronto: 6-3
Tampa Bay: 12-2
Overall: 49-6 (-62 units)

so that research didnt take long at all.

Ive turned this thing, almost every way imaginable and what is working,,,, is, starting after 5 games and hoping they dont reach 11........... 9-0 on the season and (322-1) since 2005.

off to nap and just play the padres tonight, in the action chase.

later.
 

coachp

EOG Addicted
#24
Re: The Chase

Thanks SSI- Great job as usual. yes I am interested in the research. I am spending my spare time coaching an aau team- but we have the State Championship this weekend then we will have a break-- more time to digest all the hard work you have done.

Thanks again and good luck. I'm with you on SD.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#25
Re: The Chase

ok coach, let me throw this out there for you........ it sounds as though that you like "Mechanical Systems", since your on limited time.

Now im not going to take credit for all of this and i have only ran this years numbers (08) but i will run all of (2007) tonight or tomorrow.

If you play the Biggest Moneyline Favorite on the board but play them on the Runline and your willing to do a ( 6 game chase) on them winning on the Runline, your record this year would be: 11-0

your play tonight would be

Runline Chase 12
b) mets -1.5 (-1.15) to win 2 units or whatever it takes to clear one unit, since AZ was a loser last night.

actually the money is probably going to be really close to what were doing in the Chase, as alot of the favorites on the RL are actually (+ money). Boston is the 2nd biggest favorite today and they are (+1.10) on the R/L.... of course this has alot to do with, if your playing the home team or road team. the home team will always lay less juice.

from april 8 thru april 12, the biggest favorite did not win on the RL, so you would have already been pushed to a game 6 (our last), so our nerves would have already been tested.

ill run all of (07) but this could have possibilites, since its totally mechanical and it gives us a play every day for this.

any thoughts?

if i do this, ill be on the Mets RL tonight, as game (a).. to win $20..
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#26
Re: The Chase

im unsure, if ill play it or not (RL Chase) tonight but here are the numbers from last year for (april 2 thru may 2): 14-0 (+14 units) it had to go to a game 5 (not 6) only once but there were alot of borderline calls, as to who the biggest favorite of the day was......... the record that i showed (14-0) was strictly using Covers closing lines and anyone can look this info up..

here is where we sit, thru all the rhetoric..

The Chase: 9-0 (+9.00 units) (+$180)
nothing pending or going tonight.

Action Chase: 0-0 (0.00 units) ($0)

play for wednesday night

Action Chase 1
b) padres Under the total.... ill post it later tonight, as im waiting, its a late start but it will be to win $42.


Runline Chase 08: 11-0

play for wednesday night april 22

RL Chase 12
a) mets -1.5 (-1.15) $23 to to win $20

i think that im going to play it but proceed at your own risk (Coachp) if you decide to follow...
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#27
Re: The Chase

Coachp, im down on the mets R/L and will play this out, in a 6 deep martingale (chase) fashion.

this gives me 2 mechancial systems. the only problem may come from picking between 2 teams to play on the R/L, when its very close and many days, i cant wait until the last second to play. so that may become a judgement call or i may simply decide to use the (Opener) as the deciding factor, that makes more sense (i think)...

ill keep the record for the (R/L) chase at 11-0 as i head into today but i havent been playing it, until tonight (RL Chase 12) but this is mechanical and can easily be looked up and if anyone wants to join in either of these 2 mechanical chase systems, they dont have to wait on anyone to post plays, the information is easily looked up...

btw, my local will take a 2 dime bet on totals or runlines, so i dont have to worry about getting down a larger amount, if need be.

back on thursday and there are some day games. Looks like the R/L play for thursday will come down to the (reds or tigers). Reds opened (-1.92) and has come down to (-1.75) and the Tigers opened (-1.79) and still sit there. guess we can work it out tomorrow morning.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#28
Re: The Chase

Coach, here is my play for the Action Chase

Action Chase 1
b) Padres Under 7 (+1.00) $42 to win $42
cain/maddux listed

i dont like it really but its the best i can do. if this one goes Over, ill be playing it, in 2 chases tomorrow. play (C) in the Action Chase and play (A) in the regular Chase.

later.
 
#29
Re: The Chase

Hey SSI,

I love the systems. Like you said they are not for everyone.

I especially like the regular chase. I have dabbled with this in the NBA a bit during the regular season. I found it time consuming to track each team every day to see how long each streak was. But I did see that it had a lot of potential. Def not a lot of plays though.

Have you ever looked into doing a 1st inning score/no score chase? I am looking at some specific teams to keep an ongoing chase with (not limiting it to just 1 unit per series) and riding them through the season.

Anyway love to hear your thoughts on it and keep up the good work.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#30
Re: The Chase

FE, thanks....... i dont have any data for (1st inning scoring) but it can be looked up.

i also was looking for some chase to keep going and have a little action every day, without it being too time consuming.

The regular Chase has had only 1 loss since 2005 and that can be looked up at Covers as well. It was the 07 reds who last had a streak of 11 Overs.

Im going to be in the process now of going back thru the 07 season and checking the largest R/L of the day..... as for april 07 and april 08, it has went 25-0 coming into tonight.

The trick to these Chases is having the guts (or stupidity) to keep chunking the plays in there. If your going to do this, you have to commit to following it out, in games 5 and 6.

All i can say about your (1st inning scores) is to simply take the time to back test the data. As for my opinion, i really dont know, it may work. if you start doing it, update me on how it goes.
 
#31
Re: The Chase

I have been going through past data on the 1st inning scores. I really just want to find a handful of teams to ride yes/no every game..

I like the R/L chase a ton as well and will be looking for the data you find. I have played on occasion the ML chase on the heavy chalk. I don't mind the prices since I have played to win .5 unit of my normal chase unit value so far. But R/L would have been just as successful on the ones I played.

I definitely have the guts to play the late chases. Which is why I have been lurking at these threads of yours from the beginning (and playing the regular chase).

Your effort is appreciated. I know how time consuming it is..
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#32
Re: The Chase

the data is time consuming but the selection process on a daily basis, takes only minutes. im willing to do the back testing, if we can come up with something successful.

One thing though, i dont want any part of a heavy ML chase that goes 6 deep.

ill be around tomorrow, maybe we will have a play or two in the regular chase. the mets get there, if they stay Under 8 tonight.
 
#33
Re: The Chase

SSI,

So I just got done running the numbers for one of the teams I liked for a yes they will score in the 1st for this year and 07 season.

The numbers are staggering and much better than I expected.

Florida Marlins

08- Playing to win 1 unit per series 8-0 (all series 2,3,4 game)

Playing a 6 game chase 11-0

07- Playing to win 1 unit per series 52-0 (all series 2,3,4 game)

Playing a 6 game chase 106-0 (Longest losing streak 5th game)

Obviously this is an extremely small sample size but it is well worth looking into. Would love if we can work together and run these numbers.

I am an under bettor by heart and I'll be honest with you I haven't found a team that I can make a real argument for saying No runs in the 1st for yet but I have only scanned through teams so far.

Let me know your thoughts. And sorry if this is hijacking your thread. You are probably the only poster I have seen that doesn't mind like me running these deep chases.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#34
Re: The Chase

personally i love the discussion. looks like some good numbers on the fish..... the only snag may be in the juice... laying (-1.30) or so, several times in a row, may cause that last bet (6th bet) in your chase to be really large. that juice will push those bets. make sure your book or books will take that last bet, if you have to make it.

also wanted to tell Coachp, if your reading this....... the Chase wager or the Action Chase wager, will always have to be an "Action" bet, as its solely based on the teams (O/U) performance.

back thursday morning, before the day games start..
 

coachp

EOG Addicted
#36
Re: The Chase

Thanks SSI- action only. some of my books automatically go to pitchers on O/U, but look for action on the others. Fully: I'm with SSI- great discussion- The only thing guys is I have nothing to offer right now. I'm just a leach soaking up all of your data and taking advantage of your hard work. So thank you!
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#37
Re: The Chase

dont want to dampen anyone's spirits but if we take a (70 unit) loss, somewhere along the way, that will be hard to take. im preparing myself mentally for that, as im expecting to play at a (100:1) ratio..

anyway, here is where i sit on the ( 3 Chase Systems) coming into thursday april 24 and ill only list the record for what ive actually played but i can give some back data, if anyone wants it.

The Chase: 9-0 (+9.00 units) (+$180) (322-1 since the 2005 season)


plays for thrusday april 24

Chase 10
a) Baltimore Over 9 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

Chase 11
a) Seattle Over 9 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

and yes guys, i know they are playing each other but both are on 5 game (Under) streaks and this will be treated as 2 separate streaks. If this game goes Under tonight, ill be on Balt Under tomorrow, as well as Seattle Under.

thats all for today, with (The Chase)



Action Chase: 1-0 (+1.00 units) (+$20) (totally opionated and handicapped)

play for thursday april 24

Action Chase 2
a) Mets Over 9 (+1.00) $20 to win $20 (greek)
this is a play on the Mets to go (Over) the posted total in one of their next 6 games. This is (Not Mechanical) and just my opinion. Ill never have more than one of these going at once.

Runline Chase: 1-0 (+1.00 units) (+$20)
combined record for (april 07 and april 08) (26-0)

play for thursday april 24

Runline Chase 2:
a) Im assuming this is going to be a play on the Tigers today, there was a pitching change and no line is up, as of now. it looks to be Bonderman against Feldman.

ill post the exact line, as soon as it hits the boards, because thats the one that i want to play.

later.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#38
Re: The Chase

adding for thursday april 24

Runline Chase 2
a) Tigers -1.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20
Bonderman/Feldman must go.

thats all today for me, ill be in and out, if anyone needs any info, ill be running some back data today and taking it easy.

good luck on your wagers.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#40
Re: The Chase

ok, i need to step in here and update this.

there was a pitching change in the det/tex game. i found this out and re-bet detroit anyway. so the play will still look like this.

Runline Chase 2
a) Tigers -1.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20

i may not have should have played this, as the reds went off as the biggest favorite today but i did anyway. I hate these last minute things, i can keep up with them (via my local) when im away but i cant always rush to post.

the score is tied at (1-1) in the 3rd, as i type this. so im stuck with the wager and thats how it will be kept, win or lose.

good luck, just wanted to explain this.
 
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