The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No other team in the big leagues has won 60% of their games.

The problem for the North Siders: the vagaries of the MLB postseason, especially the ultra-dangerous NLDS (only five games) against a quality foe.
 
choslamshe

choslamshe

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Can't wait to see what happens in Sept/Oct. This team was pegged to be awesome on paper and it's translated to an incredible regular season. Let's see whether they carry the intrinsic qualities to achieve what they were favored to do. That's the question for October baseball participants.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Best 25-man roster in baseball.

Where's the weakness?
 
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rico1

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Day after Labor Day, what's their magic number? Nine? Dominant.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Win or lose, the Cubs will be the story of the 2016 MLB postseason.
 
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rico1

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

FairWarning said:
The AL has HFA for the WS.
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Rangers are a scary team to face in the postseason, but they also have pen questions. Jeffress' drinking problems aside, Sam Dyson walks the tightrope virtually every time he gets the ninth. Let me put it this way, when I'm betting the Rangers and they win by a single run, I go out afterwards and buy lottery tickets.
 
richsox24

richsox24

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

The Cubs have had such an amazing year that its literally WS championship or bust. Anything less is a disappointing season.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

The best team in baseball is only 20-25% to win the World Series when the playoffs start.

This isn't the NBA where there's 2-3 contenders. All 10 teams have a viable shot to win the world series when the playoffs start. It won't be a choke job if they don't win. It'll just mean the 75%-80% came in. Not that shocking. It'll be disappointing, sure, but the point is to build a team that is the best team for 5 straight years and pray you don't get insanely unlucky. That's what Theo has done. This team will be better next year than this year thanks to Schwarber being back and Heyward bouncing back, as well as Russell taking another step forward, and Contreras playing time replacing useless Montero.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

PapaSlam said:
The best team in baseball is only 20-25% to win the World Series when the playoffs start.

This isn't the NBA where there's 2-3 contenders. All 10 teams have a viable shot to win the world series when the playoffs start. It won't be a choke job if they don't win. It'll just mean the 75%-80% came in. Not that shocking. It'll be disappointing, sure, but the point is to build a team that is the best team for 5 straight years and pray you don't get insanely unlucky. That's what Theo has done. This team will be better next year than this year thanks to Schwarber being back and Heyward bouncing back, as well as Russell taking another step forward, and Contreras playing time replacing useless Montero.
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Heyward has a lower slugging % than MadBum, and next year he'll be making 28M, LMAO
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

rico1 said:
Rangers are a scary team to face in the postseason, but they also have pen questions. Jeffress' drinking problems aside, Sam Dyson walks the tightrope virtually every time he gets the ninth. Let me put it this way, when I'm betting the Rangers and they win by a single run, I go out afterwards and buy lottery tickets.
Click to expand...

Worst team in the post season IMHO.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

kane said:
Heyward has a lower slugging % than MadBum, and next year he'll be making 28M, LMAO
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1.1 WAR this year... could be worse. In any event, add Schwarber and Contreras to the every day lineup next year and Heyward could hit .000 and this team is still going to dominate folks.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

I think it's funny people are worried about the Mets making the playoffs.

Syndergaard will have to start the wild card game, which leaves their playoff rotation for the NLDS pretty terrible.

deGrom (if he's healthy) (on road)
Matz (if he's healthy) (on road)
Syndergaard
Colon
deGrom (if he's healthy) (on road)

Look at deGrom's road splits... Mets might be the worst team to make the playoffs if they do.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

How would you have liked to lay -170 with Hammel today & hear him say he's lost the feel for his slider post-game?
 
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Waz

EOG Addicted
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

FairWarning said:
There will be a lot of Chicagoans in town for both.

JK - the bullpen is the weakness, mainly the setup men.
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The Cubs have the best bullpen in baseball and I'm not sure there's a close second.

In reverse order:

9th - Chapman: one of the best closers of our time. Has a 1.72 ERA over the last 2 seasons and is striking out over 14 batters per nine.
8th - Rondon: only once over the last 12 months has he allowed more than a run in an appearance. Has a sub-2.00 ERA for the last 2 seasons combined. Find me another set up guy who can say both of those.
7th - Strop: since joining the Cubs in 2014, he has a 2.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He'd be an 8th inning guy on nearly every other team. Returns soon.
Other options - Montgomery: one of the top 6 or 7 lefty relievers in baseball with a 2.29 ERA in the pen. Can also be a long man if needed.
- Edwards: one of the best up and coming relievers in baseball. Has a 2.89 ERA and peripherals point to a guy who can be sub-2.00. 12 K's per nine.
- Grimm: has been unhittable since late June with a 0.43 ERA over last 10 weeks. 3.14 ERA with the Cubs in 3+ years but his stuff is much better now.
- Cahill: 2.68 ERA and is excellent with guys on base in a jam as he is a groundball machine (great situational guy)
- Zastryzny: 0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings of work. Obviously it's early on him but his stuff is outstanding in the early going.
- Wood: owns a 3.25 ERA this season and can be a good long guy is someone gets in trouble early.

No team in baseball has a better 7-8-9 trio than the Cubs, and no team certainly can say that they have the depth in the pen that the Cubs have. They have 9 legitimate arms and Maddon can optimize every matchup at any point during the game. I'll take this bullpen over any other.
 
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PalmTree

EOG Dedicated
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

rico1 said:
Rangers are a scary team to face in the postseason, but they also have pen questions. Jeffress' drinking problems aside, Sam Dyson walks the tightrope virtually every time he gets the ninth. Let me put it this way, when I'm betting the Rangers and they win by a single run, I go out afterwards and buy lottery tickets.
Click to expand...

Best record in all of baseball in one run games.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Mike Corrigan made a good point last month.

If you're looking for a longshot to win the World Series, scout the American League and try to find the Cleveland Cavaliers of Major League Baseball.

Strong team in the weaker half of the bracket.

Why try to beat the Dodgers, Nationals and Cubs to find the World Series winner when it's possible you could be able to avoid all three?
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Heim said:
How would you have liked to lay -170 with Hammel today & hear him say he's lost the feel for his slider post-game?
Click to expand...

For the playoffs, Hammel won't matter. He's been a notorious poor second half pitcher, although he's been solid this year. He will be in long relief for the post season.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

A word of caution about Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and his chances in October.

I see a lot of Greg Maddux in Hendricks.

A thinking man's pitcher with late life on his fastball and an uncanny ability to manage opposing lineups and avoid tough spots.

However, the postseason is about quality pitching facing stacked lineups and power pitchers who win in the strike zone historically fare better than finesse guys (think John Smoltz over Maddux and Tom Glavine).

Maddux's won-loss record in the NLCS and World Series was a combined 6-11.
 
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Waz

EOG Addicted
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

John Kelly said:
A word of caution about Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and his chances in October.

I see a lot of Greg Maddux in Hendricks.

A thinking man's pitcher with late life on his fastball and an uncanny ability to manage opposing lineups and avoid tough spots.

However, the postseason is about quality pitching facing stacked lineups and power pitchers who win in the strike zone historically fare better than finesse guys (think John Smoltz over Maddux and Tom Glavine).

Maddux's won-loss record in the NLCS and World Series was a combined 6-11.
Click to expand...

Maddux did have a career 3.27 ERA in the postseason and I'm sure the Cubs would take that for Hendricks. Equates to 2 runs in 6 innings of work, and then turn it over to the three-headed monster in the pen. That's one advantage Maddux never had, as he often had to work deep into the game.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

PalmTree said:
Best record in all of baseball in one run games.
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Funny you should bring this up considering Fezzik said yesterday 30-9 in one run wins is entirely luck therefore TEX fade material.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

John Kelly said:
A word of caution about Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and his chances in October.

I see a lot of Greg Maddux in Hendricks.

A thinking man's pitcher with late life on his fastball and an uncanny ability to manage opposing lineups and avoid tough spots.

However, the postseason is about quality pitching facing stacked lineups and power pitchers who win in the strike zone historically fare better than finesse guys (think John Smoltz over Maddux and Tom Glavine).

Maddux's won-loss record in the NLCS and World Series was a combined 6-11.
Click to expand...


if the Cubs start Kyle Hendricks at Wrigley, he should do just fine.

1.21 ERA at Wrigley; 3.09 on the road.

If I was Joe Maddon, I'd set up the playoff rotation like this, regardless of opponent:

Game 1: Jake Arrieta
Game 2: Kyle Hendricks
Game 3: Jon Lester
Game 4: John Lackey
Game 5: Jake Arrieta

One of or both of the Lester/Lackey duo will come out balls to the wall on the road. Don't want to leave that responsibility to Hendricks.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Heim said:
How would you have liked to lay -170 with Hammel today & hear him say he's lost the feel for his slider post-game?
Click to expand...


Here's a not so bold prediction, based on following Hammel/Cubs closely the last few years:

Hammel will be left off the post season roster, throw a temper tantrum, and the Cubs will trade him in the off season because his contract is pretty team friendly and someone will want the innings. Cubs will approach next year with a rotation that includes Montgomery as the 5th starter in all likelihood.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

The road to the October Classic will be easier with strasburg not healthy....Tough to beat the cubs in the N.L.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

PapaSlam said:
if the Cubs start Kyle Hendricks at Wrigley, he should do just fine.

1.21 ERA at Wrigley; 3.09 on the road.

If I was Joe Maddon, I'd set up the playoff rotation like this, regardless of opponent:

Game 1: Jake Arrieta
Game 2: Kyle Hendricks
Game 3: Jon Lester
Game 4: John Lackey
Game 5: Jake Arrieta

One of or both of the Lester/Lackey duo will come out balls to the wall on the road. Don't want to leave that responsibility to Hendricks.
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Against the Dodgers, rather see Lester as the #1. We know the Dodgers are much worse against LHP, so would want to have Lester face them as much as possible.
 
P

PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Valuist said:
Against the Dodgers, rather see Lester as the #1. We know the Dodgers are much worse against LHP, so would want to have Lester face them as much as possible.
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More projecting for the NLDS here... but doing it this way has Lester as the game 1 starter for the NLCS if the Dodgers advance. So it seems you'd agree with my NLDS forecast on that note.
 
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PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Rondon was throwing smoke tonight. If Strop can come back and get 4 or 5 appearances to tune up, this team has 0 weaknesses.

Rotation, offense, defense, bullpen, all A+.
 
R

rico1

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

Who else cannot wait for the Mets vs Cubs? Nlds matchup! Ratings, and more ratings.
 
P

PapaSlam

Banned
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

rico1 said:
Who else cannot wait for the Mets vs Cubs? Nlds matchup! Ratings, and more ratings.
Click to expand...

Might depend on who has home field for that wild card game.

Gotta give the home team the edge, whether it ends up being the Cards, Giants, or Mets. Martinez, Bumgarner, or Syndergaard.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: The Cubs are playing .650 baseball

PapaSlam said:
Might depend on who has home field for that wild card game.

Gotta give the home team the edge, whether it ends up being the Cards, Giants, or Mets. Martinez, Bumgarner, or Syndergaard.
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In that scenario, edge to MadBum and Giants. He's got ice in his veins.

Speaking of the Giants, Bochy just stole Maddon's move. Gearrin goes from the mound to the outfield, while they bring in the lefty Lopez for one hitter, then Gearrin goes back to the mound.
 
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