The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

and say the pats did punt and won the game - would the decision on punting on 4th down be the incorrect decision?

Lets say I have a normal chip stack in poker with small blinds and no need to steal. I go allin with 72 preflop and get called with AA.

The cards come out 7772J7 and I crack his AA.

Does this mean I made the right choice just because I donked out on him?
Does this mean he made the wrong choice by calling me?
Of course not for both questions.

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CCraig%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <wunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <wontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> It?s a red herring to imply that if the probability estimates you?re basing a decision on aren?t perfect, then you are wrong to use them.
<o> </o>
You base your decision on the best estimates you can make, however imperfect, taking into account all relevant factors (including whatever psychological factors are in play).
<o> </o>
If you say ?I don?t trust numbers; I?m going with my gut,? then you?re still implicitly making probability estimates. You?re saying that your ?gut? tells you Manning will score often enough in this scenario rather than that scenario to make such-and-such the better decision.
<o> </o>
You?re not thereby avoiding making probability estimates, you?re just choosing to do so by instinct and not explicitly assigning numbers to them.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Chop, thanks for the repeat...

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

I dont think NFL players take it personal like some think in this thread.
Everyone of them gave max effort on D after missing the 4and2.

As a matter of fact you can make the case that the D could have used it as motivation and even improved the Ds chances of making a stop by a higher % then normal.

Thor makes a great point. Even adding those extra 40 yards with a punt, the toughest 28 yards to get was the same 28 yards the colts had to get even if they punted.

And this remains false no matter how many times it's incessantly repeated.

A decision can only be judged relative to the information that was available at the time it was made. The outcome was not known at the time the decision was made. Ergo the outcome is irrelevant to an assessment of the decision.

so how do you feel about say not going for 2 to take the lead? is it always a bad call not to go for 2 to win the game? very seldomly do you ever see a team go for two to win the game as opposed to kicking the PAT and playing the % to not only win the coin toss, but also win the game in OT

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Let's do something simple that we all agree on, because this will decipher who is a results oriented person.

You get dealt AA, 1st hand of the WSOP, and your table is 9 deep. You're in the big blind, and you have 4 people shove all-in pre-flop. You would be the 5th with a call. You decide to fold, because you don't want to get knocked out. JJ, 99, and AK, and AQ suited are the four hands that are in the pot. Community cards are 27J4Q. You would have lost, was it the right decision to fold?

No, you never lay down the best cards, or the right play in this case.

Ot, but there are rare times when you do fold that hand when your odds of winning the pot are less then 50%.
Not often, but there are times to fold that hand even when the pot odds favor you.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Chop, thanks for the repeat...

did not see your post.
We both used poker, but not the same post.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You never fold aces preflop. You're an absolute idiot if you think otherwise. The only time your chances of winning dip below 50%, is when your pot odds increase well over 200%. I can't believe you just said that. Stick to rooting for the Saints.

Rare occasions? LOL, what a fucking joke. You never fold the best preflop hand in poker; preflop. Ever.

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

so how do you feel about say not going for 2 to take the lead? is it always a bad call not to go for 2 to win the game? very seldomly do you ever see a team go for two to win the game as opposed to kicking the PAT and playing the % to not only win the coin toss, but also win the game in OT

I don't see the relevance to this discussion.

But to answer your question, I'd estimate the chances of making the extra point, the chances of making a two-point conversion, the chances of winning in overtime if the game goes to overtime, etc., and make my calculations accordingly. And if there were some kind of relevant psychological factor (like the offense would just love me to death for "showing confidence" in them by going for two and try extra hard, or whatever), I'd incorporate that into my estimates.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

so how do you feel about say not going for 2 to take the lead? is it always a bad call not to go for 2 to win the game? very seldomly do you ever see a team go for two to win the game as opposed to kicking the PAT and playing the % to not only win the coin toss, but also win the game in OT

assuming that there is less then one min left, you tie the game.
Because you have a 50% chance of winning the toss. Even if you dont win the toss, there is still a decent shot at getting the ball back in OT.

I need to know the teams and the situation.
Is this Oakland we are talking about? or is this INDY?

also, all you need in OT is a FG, last night they needed a TD

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Chop, you don't know what any of the down cards are. If the entire table shoved all-in, and you had AA, you shouldn't fold. You should never fold, because pre-flop, it's always the BEST hand. You always have the BEST odds. You may not have a 51% or greater chance of winning the hand, but you're getting 9-1 on your call and you're only a 3-1 dog.

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

I don't see the relevance to this discussion.

But to answer your question, I'd estimate the chances of making the extra point, the chances of making a two-point conversion, the chances of winning in overtime if the game goes to overtime, etc., and make my calculations accordingly. And if there were some kind of relevant psychological factor (like the offense would just love me to death for "showing confidence" in them by going for two and try extra hard, or whatever), I'd incorporate that into my estimates.

hmm...i guess go off this

mo said a PAT hits 99% of the time
obviously 50% to win the coin toss
roughly 63.6% of teams that win the coin toss win the game in the nfl

2 point success rate ranges from 40-55% i believe

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Even if you dont win the toss, there is still a decent shot at getting the ball back in OT.

i have 36.4% chance of winning the game...anybody correct me if i am wrong

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You never fold aces preflop. You're an absolute idiot if you think otherwise. The only time your chances of winning dip below 50%, is when your pot odds increase well over 200%. I can't believe you just said that. Stick to rooting for the Saints.

Rare occasions? LOL, what a fucking joke. You never fold the best preflop hand in poker; preflop. Ever.

Ok, lets say your in the WSOP main event.
You won your seat by winning a $50 sat on the internet.
You are 6people away from being ITM for around 20K.
4 of the 5 people in front of you have a bigger CS then you.

You have a 100% chance of finishing ITM if you fold. You have a 53% chance of getting knocked out with zero money if you call.

In this case you fold AA preflop.
I have the math to back that up also.

Especially when you consider the payout structure moves up very slowly in the WSOP ME.

Meaning I would have to survive a really really long time after that hand to significantly improve my PO of almost 20K anyway.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You have no math. You play a tournament to win it, the pay out structures make that neccessary. If you make the call, you have a better chance of winning the whole tournament, and receiving much greater pay.

Please stop being retarded. You never fold aces pre flop unless you're a broke ass, or scared little girl.

You don't fold. Stop coming up with situations, you're sounding more and more like a retard. I now understand why you're so bad at poker.

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

i have 36.4% chance of winning the game...anybody correct me if i am wrong

Well, needless to say, it depends on the teams.

But if the identity of the teams is unknown, then of course it's 50-50 (leaving aside scoreless overtime periods resulting in ties).

You're unnecessarily complicating it with these other numbers. However likely it is you'll win if you win the coin toss--call it n--you'll win 1 - n if you lose the coin toss, resulting in an overall expectation of 50%.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

i have 36.4% chance of winning the game...anybody correct me if i am wrong

The other team has a 64% chance? How is that possible. They have the same equation, the only variable that is different is the XP.

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Well, needless to say, it depends on the teams.

But if the identity of the teams is unknown, then of course it's 50-50 (leaving aside scoreless overtime periods resulting in ties).

You're unnecessarily complicating it with these other numbers. However likely it is you'll win if you win the coin toss--call it n--you'll win 1 - n if you lose the coin toss, resulting in an overall expectation of 50%.

but doesnt "playing the numbers" tell you to go for 2 every time the last play in regulation is the PAT attempt/2 point conversion?

are you not merely using the same respective league averages over a certain sample size that you are using in the patriots/colts 4th down call case w/ indicators that help gauge the two teams at hand?

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You have no math. You play a tournament to win it, the pay out structures make that neccessary. If you make the call, you have a better chance of winning the whole tournament, and receiving much greater pay.

Please stop being retarded. You never fold aces pre flop unless you're a broke ass, or scared little girl.

You don't fold. Stop coming up with situations, you're sounding more and more like a retard. I now understand why you're so bad at poker.

You are wrong simple as that.

What about a 10 Player 2x or nothing SNG where the top 5 get paid and the other 5 dont.

Are you going to tell me that if 5 people go all in in front of you an you have AA your going to call? If you say yes to that question you are the worst poker player in the world.

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

The other team has a 64% chance? How is that possible. They have the same equation, the only variable that is different is the XP.

saying that if a game goes to overtime and team A wins the coin toss...team A has a 64% chance of winning the game in overtime...not sure if it is the correct number but im sure OSU or somebody with a strong database could easily document

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

The only time you could warrant folding aces in a satellite, 4 players all in, and 1 needs to be knocked out to make the money. Satellites are the only spot where you should lay down aces.

YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT LAYING THEM DOWN IN A MTT! ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? Everyone in the world would call you retarded for ever laying down AA in a MTT. You're not trying to make the money in tournaments, and if you are then you're playing out of your pay grade.

I'm the worst poker player in the world, but you're talking about laying down AA in a MTT. OH MY. :doh1

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Chop, you don't know what any of the down cards are. If the entire table shoved all-in, and you had AA, you shouldn't fold. You should never fold, because pre-flop, it's always the BEST hand. You always have the BEST odds. You may not have a 51% or greater chance of winning the hand, but you're getting 9-1 on your call and you're only a 3-1 dog.

I fold aces there because most likely i would be in the final 3 with much bigger prize money, assuming this is a tourney and it is for mid to high stakes. You know that shitty feeling when you were 6-12 guys from having a huge payday.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

It's 60%, according to advancedNFLstats, but how can you predict who wins the coin flip before you go for two?

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

The only time you could warrant folding aces in a satellite, 4 players all in, and 1 needs to be knocked out to make the money. Satellites are the only spot where you should lay down aces.

YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT LAYING THEM DOWN IN A MTT! ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? Everyone in the world would call you retarded for ever laying down AA in a MTT. You're not trying to make the money in tournaments, and if you are then you're playing out of your pay grade.

I'm the worst poker player in the world, but you're talking about laying down AA in a MTT. OH MY. :doh1

If I posted a story about someone who won 4 Gbracletts in the WSOP laying down AA preflop would it make you feel better?

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You are wrong simple as that.

What about a 10 Player 2x or nothing SNG where the top 5 get paid and the other 5 dont.

Are you going to tell me that if 5 people go all in in front of you an you have AA your going to call? If you say yes to that question you are the worst poker player in the world.

LOL, not in a double or nothing tourney :+textinb3

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

I fold aces there because most likely i would be in the final 3 with much bigger prize money, assuming this is a tourney and it is for mid to high stakes. You know that shitty feeling when you were 6-12 guys from having a huge payday.

You don't fold AA at the Main Event. You could fold aces at the final table, with shitty pay out structures, if you were short. The difference between 1st and 2nd is usually the biggest jump though. I would call because a win almost guarantee's you first place and that's what I'm there for.

 

[Thor4140]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Jesus where were all u useless bums when i asked for assistance yesterday on a college statistic question :+textinb3

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

but doesnt "playing the numbers" tell you to go for 2 every time the last play in regulation is the PAT attempt/2 point conversion?

are you not merely using the same respective league averages over a certain sample size that you are using in the patriots/colts 4th down call case w/ indicators that help gauge the two teams at hand?

I'm not following you (or you're confused).

I don't know what would be called for by "playing the numbers" in the conversion hypothetical you raise, but I'd be very surprised if it were always better to go for two.

As I said, it would depend on the probability of making the kick (probably almost no variance--around 99%), and the probability of making a two-point conversion (considerable variance, depending on the relative strength of your offense and their defense), and the probability of winning in overtime (considerable variance, depending on the relative strength of your team and their team--well, and home field and whatever else).

Because those factors differ depending on the situation, the correct decision differs as well.

As to the analogy with last night's game, if you're just asking whether in both cases I'd make probability estimates based in part on league history stats but adjusted for the specific situation, the answer is yes. But so what? I'm not seeing your point.

 

[royalfan]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

It is absolutely incredible that Timely thinks there are not any situations you should fold pocket aces preflop. It is just bad poker to think that. Period. Sorry to add to the sidetracked that thread with that announcement.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

If I posted a story about someone who won 4 Gbracletts in the WSOP laying down AA preflop would it make you feel better?

Folding AA, preflop, in a non satellite or I'll even give you SNG is the wrong move. Regardless of the outcome. You also can't win 4 bracelets in one tournament, and if your friend laid them down 4 times he's retarded.

Also, who cares? A donk won the Main Event this year.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You don't fold AA at the Main Event. You could fold aces at the final table, with shitty pay out structures, if you were short. The difference between 1st and 2nd is usually the biggest jump though. I would call because a win almost guarantee's you first place and that's what I'm there for.

Agree, all depends on the payouts though. If it was 1k for 9th or 20k for 3rd, you bet your ass if everyone pushes in front of me i am folding those aces.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Quebb, you have a 50% chance of winning the flip going into OT. That's the next probability you have to look at when analyzing the 2 point conversation choice, no?

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

It is absolutely incredible that Timely thinks there are not any situations you should fold pocket aces preflop. It is just bad poker to think that. Period. Sorry to add to the sidetracked that thread with that announcement.

I'm talking sitting at a basic MTT or cash table playing poker. Regular pay out structures. With all these unique tournaments, fine come up with some examples, but sitting at an MTT or Cash Table playing hold 'em, you should never for AA preflop.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Folding AA, preflop, in a non satellite or I'll even give you SNG is the wrong move. Regardless of the outcome. You also can't win 4 bracelets in one tournament, and if your friend laid them down 4 times he's retarded.

Also, who cares? A donk won the Main Event this year.

I never said he won 4 in one tourney. Where did you get that from?
And I never said he laid them down 4 times. Learn to read.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Agree, all depends on the payouts though. If it was 1k for 9th or 20k for 3rd, you bet your ass if everyone pushes in front of me i am folding those aces.

What if it was 40k to 2nd and 84k to 1st? I'd be calling then.

 

[Quebb Diesel]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

It's 60%, according to advancedNFLstats, but how can you predict who wins the coin flip before you go for two?

well if you go for two overtime is out of the question

i just want to know which is the "right" decision mathematically when debating whether or not going for 2 and winning the game vs. kicking the PAT and playing the % in OT

teams have a 50/50 to win the coin toss...so according to advancednflstats the winner wins the game 60% of the time

say team A is down 7 and scores with 0:00 on the clock

using the broad % of a team converting the 2 pt conversion a team has a 40% to 55% chance of winning the game

if team A chooses to kick the PAT and go to overtime what is their % to:

1. hit the PAT
2. win/lose the coin toss
3. win the game

that % will vary as well depending on whether or not you win the coin toss but what is that range of %?

 

[royalfan]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You are smarter than this Timely. To say there are not instances where folding aces in a tournament is not correct.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

If I posted a story about someone who won 4 Gbracletts in the WSOP laying down AA preflop would it make you feel better?

Maybe if you used comma's or broke up your sentences they would actually make sense. Reading that as is means someone you knew laid down aa pre flop and won 4 bracelets. That's how it reads.

 

[royalfan]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

I'm talking sitting at a basic MTT or cash table playing poker. Regular pay out structures. With all these unique tournaments, fine come up with some examples, but sitting at an MTT or Cash Table playing hold 'em, you should never for AA preflop.

Cash game I cannot think of a time when you should fold aces. I do not think a situation could possibly exist.

MTT, one easy example that comes to mind is if you are near or at the bubble and you are easily running the table over stealing blinds and anties most hands and the short stack goes all in you should not call with aces, as you can make more money by not having him eliminated and the bubble not burst, where you no longer will be able to steal.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

You are smarter than this Timely. To say there are not instances where folding aces in a tournament is not correct.

There simply aren't royal. I've had this discussion with the best poker player I know, much better than me, and he'll say the same thing.

You can try and find situations, but in a basic MTT (basic tourney settings and pay out structure), or basic cash game you should never fold AA. You should never try and bubble tournaments.

There are new tournament structures that make it OK, or the "right" choice in some opinions, but playing a basic tournament or cash game it's never right.

Preflop, in a 10 minute level 3k starting stack, about 10% pays tournament, there's no time to fold them.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: The more and more I think about it, the less and less stupid the move was.

Cash game I cannot think of a time when you should fold aces. I do not think a situation could possibly exist.

MTT, one easy example that comes to mind is if you are near or at the bubble and you are easily running the table over stealing blinds and anties most hands and the short stack goes all in you should not call with aces, as you can make more money by not having him eliminated and the bubble not burst, where you no longer will be able to steal.

No chance you fold aces with a chance to knock out one more player. In a MTT, someone could be getting knocked out at another table as you speak, and you're laying down AA to try and steal blinds? Come on.