Re: Trent Richardson will be...
Conventional wisdom would say you're correct, but if he's Jim Brown 2.0 he'll have a big enough impact on the team to warrant that pick.
Well that's kind of a tall order for young Trent, no?
It's not a matter of production - I would bet he is among the best RBs in the NFL for the next 5 years. It's a matter of longevity. Just look at the # of carries from the premiere "young backs" Ray Rice (4 years in the NFL), Chris Johnson (5 years), Adrian Peterson (5 years), Arian Foster (3 years). I would bet anyone the they have less carries next year than the average of the past 2 years.
If he's lucky, Trent can have a MJD, Michael Turner, Frank Gore type career but I wouldn't bet on much more than that.
Plus RBs as a position are declining in position and importance.