TSP Daily Briefing 4/26

#1
TSP Daily Briefing 4/26

Posted on April 26, 2021

Good morning!

I am a Star Wars fan. For those of you who are not, let me break down an analogy for you. In Star Wars “Revenge of the Sith”, Anakin Skywalker has nightmares of the death of his girlfriend. He is a powerful Jedi but there is one power that no Jedi possesses, the power to cheat death and save his girlfriend. Anakin is then tempted to the Dark Side by the Emperor who promises to work with him to achieve this death cheating power. To me, Revenge of the Sith is probably the best episode out of the first three, but I am not here to do a movie review. The analogy came to mind when I was thinking about today’s topic (expansion of content in May).

I can have a multitude of robots and technology/content that nobody in the gambling information space possesses or releases. I can have robots covering every imaginable +EV angle within the data of two global sportsbooks. However, there is one thing that all this “power” will not grant its user… the power to cheat losing in the short term. I could give you access to 100% of the data at the sportsbooks, it will not prevent you from having losing weeks or losing months, those are inevitable… no matter the quality of the data. Few accept this truth, but those who do are immediately better gamblers for it.

I bring this up to lead into the real topic today which is the expansion of content in May through the “known” bettor robots. I am constantly working to expand the content and information that I provide you, the player. I am always looking for new angles and new ways to analyze the data. My goal has always been to provide volumes of content. The good of this goal is that you have an array of information to use and analyze within your wagering. The negative of having an array of information to use and analyze is… how do you use and manage it all?

People ask to follow my wagers. I avoid this at all costs because how I wager and my tolerances for risk and losses may not be the same as yours. Last thing I want is someone following me and then I have to be their shoulder to cry on after a losing week or month. I lost too… let’s buck up and move on! I know I will have losing weeks in my personal betting, as many as 20-25+ per year. However, because my strategy minimizes damage in losing weeks and maximizes profits in winning weeks, I am able to grind a very nice profit at the end of the year. Key word is grind!

In May, I am going to look to test out a lot of new content with TSP Live subscribers (which will operate along with the normal weekend TSP Live content). It is your paid content support that makes everything TSP possible. So, in May I would like to thank you for your support by letting you be the first to check out and assess some new content toys. Some of the new content will be awesome, some of it will suck and NONE of it will prevent losing in the future. So why do it? If every bit of content I devise could grind just +0.50 units per week, that adds up BIG over the course of the year! Therein lies my goal with the expansion of TSP Live content. No bit of content will prevent TSP Live from having losing weeks or losing months. It’s gambling, that’s how it works. However, the expansion of content can provide expansion of long-term profits via the grind. When you take the winning weeks and the losing weeks together, TSP Live, in its current format (weekends and Primary/Secondary/Tertiary Angles), provides an average of +1.2 units of profit per week. Might not sound like a lot, but it works out to +60 units of profit per year. Now let’s say I expand TSP Live’s content through the “known” bettor robot(s). Let’s say the addition of the new robot(s) provides content that, separate from the Primary/Secondary/Tertiary Angles, can generate an additional +0.50 units of profit on average per week. All of a sudden, by adding this new robot, TSP Live went from averaging +1.2 units of profit per week to averaging +1.7 units per week. It’s an additional +26 units of profit per year! If I can create wagering tools that generate just 0.2 to 0.3 units per week… most would say 0.2 units per week… why waste my time??? However a tool averaging +0.2 units per week would return +10.4 units of profit per year. If I have 10 different tools just like it, that’s not +10.4 units but +104.0 units per year (10 tools X +10.4 units average return per tool)! It is with this in mind that I am constantly looking to add new tools to the toolbox! It’s also how TSP content went from 20-40 units per year way back when, to over 140 units per year. It should be a fun May and a fun summer as things get tested and tweaked… all with the goal of having a new arsenal at our disposal come the football season in September!

I look at the data I can access within two global books as an oil reservoir. My goal is to devise tools to extract more and more of that precious oil out of the reservoir. Every drop counts because gambling is a grind. Yesterday I retweeted something put out by Todd Fuhrman ( ). It illustrates how thin the line is when it comes to profiting at sports gambling. The difference between LOSING $290 per 100 wagers and WINNING $80 per 100 wagers is just two wins out of every 100 bets. Two wins, that’s all! The margin of error is so slim. Literally making one bet not using optimal parameters can be the deciding factor whether your last 100 wagers won money or lost money. Marinate on that thought for a bit. Nothing will turn gambling into free money without periods of losing. However, if after a year of ups and downs you are holding a bag with 60, 75, 100 units of profit in it, looking back… was it really that hard to do?!?! If you could handle the emotions of the losing weeks/stretches that occurred along the way, getting that 60, 75, 100 units of profit was mechanical and rather easy. It might not seem like it in the midst of a losing run, but that’s why I say don’t sweat the short term stuff. Always look to the finish line!

So, I am looking to test out content expansion ideas in May’s TSP Live subscription with the purpose of expanding the arsenal of weapons available to TSP Live. It is with this expansion in mind that I have system updates scheduled for May 11th through the 14th and again for 1-2 weeks at the end of July. The goal of these update periods will be to integrate new technology into the TSP infrastructure for football. As a bettor you always have to be evolving. The sportsbooks are always evolving, you can’t sit still or you will become obsolete very quickly!


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The Sharp Plays Index
MLB:
UP
NBA: DOWN
NHL: DOWN
Soccer: UP
Tennis: UP
Overall: UP


Material Early Sharp Buying
  1. Lazio +136 (Soccer – Italy Serie A)
  2. Nashville +106 (NHL)
  3. Detroit -101 (MLB)
  4. Torino +0.5 (+103) (Soccer – Italy Serie A)
  5. New Orleans +2 (NBA)
**As a reminder, the above early sharp buys ARE NOT graded. Early sharp buying is covered to give you an initial perspective on the day’s action. Action can change, plays can fall away, get a counter buy, etc. If the action is still at a material level, and saw follow-through at current prices, it would be reported later on Twitter or by the robots on Telegram.**


Commentary & Strategy

You might say, why would sharp money bet Detroit again if they keep losing on it? If they calculate Detroit as the value in this series, despite the results thus far, they will continue to play the value. If this is the day that Detroit finally wins, they gain back a valuable unit. If they lose again, they are likely playing a +EV strategy that will just pay off on other angles. If you have a strategy, it is ride or die. It isn’t ride until it doesn’t win for a short period and change the strategy. It’s an important lesson you can take out of seeing Detroit as a buy again today. It’s all about the long game in betting, the the individual wins and losses. Oh and that one win today that Detroit could bring, might be that one key win that makes you a winner versus a loser over your next 100 bets (see the discussion at the top).

Yep, still got that 1.27 unit rollover hanging around. I am glad I didn’t use it yesterday or Saturday. There has not been a lot out there to choose from. Today there is better action, but let me see what develops as the day goes along. We get a clean angle, I will report and we’ll roll! Only two losses though this weekend out of the early sharp buys!!


That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

https://tsp.live/2021/04/26/tsp-daily-briefing-4-26/
 
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