[9-6] +3.04
2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Alexander Volkov -160
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Seung Woo Choi +205
Diego Ferreira -110 (74" reach) vs Beneil Dariush (72" reach)
Current line: Diego -120
Diego looks to avenge his loss to Beneil Dariush 6.5 years ago. A fight where Dariush was just the more skilled fighter. Landing strikes from distance and maintaining top control in rounds 2 and 3. An intelligent fight strategy that put points on the scorecards. Ferreira was never in any real trouble but couldn't mount any substantial offense against Dariush and loss easily by unanimous decision. Ferriera went on to lose to future interim champ Poirier by TKO a few months later in April 2015. After that fight Diego began training at now rising gym Fortis MMA under Sayif Saud (he was previously coaching himself). Debuting under his new camp in January 2016. Since 2016, the two fighters careers have gone in opposite directions. Dariush going 7-3-1 while narrowly escaping defeat against Drew Dober and Drakkar Klose. Being nearly out on his feet in both matches and rallying with miraculous comebacks. He could easily be 5-5-1. Ferriera on the other hand, has gone 6-0 with a near 2:1 strikes landed to absorbed ratio in the process. W Anthony Pettis (UFC 16-10), W Mairbek Taisumov (7-2 UFC), W Rustam Khabilov (10-3 UFC), W Kyle Nelson (1-3 UFC), W Jared Gordon (4-3 UFC), W Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-5 UFC). Besting 3 top 15 foes in a row.
His move to Fortis transformed his striking in a major way. His grappling was never in doubt being a world class jiu jitsu practicioner, but his striking was raw and lacked finesse. Over the years he has developed outstanding striking defense and quick counters. Parlaying that with outstanding cardio, constant pressure, and incredible pace. Diego has become a real problem on the feet, easily handling high level strikers Taisumov and Pettis in his last two bouts. Comparing footage from his loss to Dariush to the win against Pettis, he was a shadow of his current self. Needless to say, I expect this fight to play out quite differently this time around. Ferriera has blossomed into a contender while Dariush has seemed to remain stagnant as a fringe top 10 gatekeeper. Ferreira by 2nd round TKO.
Alexander Volkov -160 (80" reach) vs Alistair Overeem (80" reach)
Current line: Volkov -200
In this heavyweight strikers delight, Alexander Volkov looks to continue his ascent to the top of the UFC ranks. Volkov's record is extremely misleading. His 2 defeats have come at the hands of Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. In the fight against Lewis, he absolutely dominated Derrick for 2.99999 rounds. Getting clipped and knocked out with a few seconds left (by the 2nd heaviest hitter in the UFC) and preventing an easy 30-27 victory. While the fight against Blaydes, he continually got taken down by the best takedown artist in the UFC but suffered very little damage. Volkov dominated the 5th and final round and if the fight was a few minutes longer most likely would have finished Blaydes. Alot was learned from the fight with Blaydes. #1 His takedown defense was no match for Blaydes wrestling (Hard to say if anyones is as he averages a whopping 7 takedowns per contest) #2 Volkov's cardio is high level for HW division (looked very nimble in the 5th despite being tackled for 4 rounds straight), #3 Defensive jiu jitsu is outstanding (Mitigated damage on the ground tremendously against a fearsome ground and pounder). His standup game is rarely in question. Volkov maintains distance very well and uses 6'7 frame effectively. Dominating some of the heaviest hitters in the UFC on the feet (Lewis, Hardy, Harris, Nelson). I have a hard time finding where Overeem is superior in this matchup. At this point in his career his striking is inferior, chin is extremely questionable, and won't be able to fight at distance (this being one of the rare instances that he is the smaller fighter). If he has any advantage, it's in the grappling. The question is can he get Volkov to the mat? I doubt it. Overeems level of grappling is eons away from the likes of Blaydes. In fact, if you were to subtract the Blaydes fight which I feel is reasonable as I consider Blaydes ability to get people to the mat as an outlier (averages 2 more takedowns per contest than Khabib). Opponents have only been successful on 5/30 attempts. 83% stuff rate, which is very high level. I think Volkov gets the finish here and may be adding a unit on him finishing within the distance closer to fight time. Volkov by 2nd round TKO.
Under 1.5 Rounds -155 Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes
Current line: Under -170
What I wrote about Smith in his originally scheduled bout vs Alex Da Silva:
Devonte Smith burst onto the scene with 3 fabulous 1st round KO's before being KO'd by his own training partner Khama Worthy. His 3 wins were against lackluster competition. Joe Lowry (0-2 UFC), Julian Erosa (3-5 UFC), Dong Hyun Ma (3-5 UFC). Aside from Smith's raw punching power, not alot can be taken away from his 4 fights because all finished early in the 1st round. The only fight lasting longer than the 1st round against UFC caliber competition was against John Gunther in 2017. A bout in which he loss by 3rd round TKO in the promotion RFO. Smith's power was still present in the fight but Gunther is a zombie and absorbed his big shots early and continually took Smith to the mat. Smith used his superior athleticism to explode back to his feet a few times but like alot of heavy hitting fast starters, the cardio ran out quite quickly. Not only did the grappling defense wither as the fight progressed the pop on his shots did as well.
His opponent on 6 days notice is Justin Jaynes. Jaynes is a striker and coach at Xtreme Couture. His striking does not reflect what you'd expect from a coach at all. He is guns blazing from the jump and can be very reckless. Jaynes has made it out of the 1st round in 1 of 3 UFC bouts. His first appearance in the UFC octagon ended in a 30 second KO win to Frank Camacho (Jaynes also took this fight on 1 week notice), Loss by submission to Gavin Tucker in the 3rd (Had Tucker hurt real bad in the 1st but couldn't finish the fight), Loss via TKO to Gabriel Benitez in the 1st round. All in all, Jaynes has yet to reach the final bell in any of his fights and had a real shot at having all of his fights end in the 1st round. It was nice to see him get deeper into the fight against Tucker because we learned his cardio is dogshit. His fighting style is kill or be killed. In his last 7 bouts, 6 have ended in the 1st round (13/22 fights have ended in the 1st). In fights reaching the final round he is (2-5). And taking the fight on 7 days notice I do not expect this approach to change. Knowing full well his not so good cardio is probably even worse without a full training camp. He will probably have to go for broke on his usual first round KO strategy. Jaynes also has his back against the wall. At 31 years of age and on the verge of a 3 fight losing streak he could very well end up getting cut from the UFC roster with another loss here. Go big or or go home.
I expect this one to be a banger. Both men enter the octagon with 6 of their last 7 bouts ending in the first round. Both men throw caution to the wind and slam KO worthy hammers. Also of note both men have suffered KO defeats and their last two losses have been via finishes. I expect Jaynes to really push the action once the octagon door closes and for one of these two fighters to find a chin. My guess is Devonte Smith 1st round KO.