[14-10] +2.94
2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300
Gabe Green +103 (73" Reach) vs Phil Rowe (80.5" reach)
Current line: Green -135
The deeper I dive into this matchup, the more compelling of a case I have for Gabriel Green. Initially played 1* at +103 I have since added 2 more units at -110.
I first was introduced to Phil Rowe watching a UFC embedded on his training partner David Branch. Branch being a solid UFC vet, my assumption was Rowe must be a solid fighter as well. So naturally when he landed a fight on the contender series I tuned in. I was left fairly unimpressed. Rowe's biggest attribute is his frame. His 80.5" reach at 170 is a weapon. But the hand speed isn't there and he winds up on his strikes. Defensively he will often evade oncoming pressure with his chin high in the air ala Luke Rockhold. He was nearly KO'd in the first round of his Contender series debut but kudos to him as he rallied back and finished Shabahzyan in the 3rd (Green previously finished Shabahzyan in the 1st). Prior to this fight Rowe was a 6-2, but it is an awfully soft 6-2. The records of all his opponents were (4-7), (1-2), (0-5), (0-4), (2-2), (0-2), (1-3), (3-7). And he loss two of those bouts.
Gabe Green loss by decision in his UFC debut against a very talented Daniel Rodriguez on 7 days notice. Prior to that he was on a 6 fight win streak. His opponents records are as follows (7-1), (5-3), (9-4), (17-13), (7-2), (7-6). The quality of competition are drastically different for two guys entering their second career UFC fight. Gabe is 9-3 with two of his losses against good current UFC fighters, Daniel Rodriguez (3-1 UFC) and Jalin Turner (4-2 UFC). Gabe Green is a bit undersized for the division but he closes distance quickly with heavy power on his strikes. His cardio, pace, and chin are top notch. He is also very dangerous on the mat as well. With solid takedowns and 6 submission wins to his name. Also of note Green has finished all of his opponents in each of his 9 wins. While Rowe will be the much larger man, I think the skill differential between to two will be too great for him to overcome. Gabe is going to close distance and deliver relentless pressure. 1st round KO.
Chris Gutierrez -150 (67" Reach) vs Andre Ewell (76" reach)
Current line: Gutierrez -140
Ewell is an outstanding athlete with outstanding length for the division. Relies almost purely on his boxing. Lightning quick hands with decent pop on his punches despite no finishes in his UFC career. Initially he struggled mightily defending takedowns but has improved there immensely in the last 2 years. However, he still is a fish out of water on his back if taken down. My main problem with Ewell is he takes too much damage and his cardio is very average. Ewell is by far most dangerous in the first 7 or so minutes and slows after that. He also has shown no defense for leg kicks aside from left hand counters. In fact in his last 3 bouts his leg kick defense stats are as follows, 21/27, 20/24, 18/18. He is averaging nearly 20 leg kick strikes absorbed per contest at an 86% clip. Ewell really doesn't have the option to switch from southpaw to conventional if his leg is battered either. His defense suffers in the alternate stance and will tend to give up on it quick after absorbing a few shots. Marlon Vera exposed the leg kick flaw and his last 2 opponents have taken advantage. One of those opponents was Chris Gutierrez's training partner and fellow Factory X fighter, Jonathan Martinez, who loss by a shocking split decision. The media scored it 13-0 in Martinez's favor, but the judges went the other way. Martinez engaged in the boxing a little too much in the beginning when Ewell is most dangerous but slowly figured him out and broke him down. A heavy dose of leg kicks limited the explosiveness of Ewell and he hurt Ewell multiple times with front kicks to the body. Sapping the movement and cardio he took over the fight in the last 7 minutes of the fight. While I view Martinez as a slightly better fighter than Gutierrez, their styles are extremely similar. Chris is actually the more technical and skilled of the two and but lacks the power Martinez brings to the table. Chris excels with his kicks, defends/maintains range beautifully, and has superb cardio. While Chris defends takedowns well (76% defense) he does struggle on the mat if he is able to be controlled there. Fortunately for him, Ewell has only attempted 2 takedowns in his 6 fight UFC career and his BJJ is abysmal. Last but not least, leg kicks are a enormous part of Chris' game. Averaging around 30 leg kicks per contest over his last 4 and connecting at a very high clip. Gutierrez actually finished Vince Morales via calf kicks in 2020 and dropped Geraldo De Freitas 4x via calf kick as well.
I think Gutierrez is going to frustrate Ewell with his in and out movement while sniping at his legs and body. Landing bigger shots late as Ewell begins to slow. The recipe for success was already put into play by his coaches and training partner. I expect Gutierrez to come out very prepared for this fight despite taking it on short notice. Gutierrez by unanimous decision. I may add another unit if this line continues to drop.
Kelvin Gastelum -219 (71.5" Reach) vs Ian Heinisch (72" reach)
Current line: Gastelum -220
Buy low on Kelvin here. In the midst of a 3 fight losing streak and having been finished for the second time in his career via heel hook by Jack Hermansson, Gastelum finds himself as a 2:1 favorite against a very average Ian Heinisch. Gastelum is very undersized for the division and probably could be a world champ at 155 if he could find a way to lay off the beans and rice. No one has really ever questioned his talent just his diet. As the competition has increased for him at 185, his lack of size has become more pronounced. Struggling to close distance against elite strikers Darren Till and Israel Adesanya and getting rag-dolled by Chris Weidman (his grappling has become a liability just due to the inherent size disadvantage.) This could be a coincidence but all 4 of his losses at 185 happen to be the fighters he faced with the longest reach. Israel Adesanya 80.5", Chris Weidman 78", Jack Hermansson 77.5", Darren Till 75". All of his wins are against opponents with reach of 74" or less. To be fair 3/4 losses have come against top 5 opponents, so he can hang with the big boys. I just have serious doubts if he will ever rise to the top at 185. One things for sure, Kelvin's KO power, chin, and hand speed have translated to the step up in weight. Skill for skill I don't think theres anywhere Heinisch is superior to Kelvin. A monstrous step down in competition for Gastelum from the divisions elite to a fringe top 15 guy. And with a 1/2 inch reach advantage and lacking high level grappling, I find it hard to see how Heinisch will be able to exploit his bigger frame against Kelvin. Also Heinisch's cardio is average and noticeably slows in the 3rd whereas Kelvin never seems to slow. I hate laying wood like this but I think were getting Kelvin on the cheap with his 3 fight skid. He will outclass Heinisch and finish him via TKO.