Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Amazing: Scott Brown about to raise $1 million for the day; Update: Done!

posted at 9:34 pm on January 11, 2010 by Allahpundit
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His site’s not loading at the moment, but as of 9:20 ET he was at $984,000 and change. It’s a done deal; he’s about to double his targeted fundraising amount for this push. Mind-blowing.

While we wait for the official numbers, here’s a short but tasty snippet from tonight’s debate with Coakley followed by what Ben Smith describes as a “kitchen sink” attack ad from her camp. The photo of Bush and Cheney is, needless to say, the centerpiece — apparently Coakley brought up Bush at the debate too — but the suggestion that Brown is somehow pro-rape is a nice touch, I thought. Exit question: They’re getting nervous, aren’t they?

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Update: He did it.
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Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Desperation time: DSCC suddenly buys $570K in MA ad time

Stench of failure increasing

posted at 12:15 pm on January 12, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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How worried have Democrats become about the special Senate election in Massachusetts? The DSCC has suddenly shifted over a half-million dollars into last-minute ad buys in Boston and Springfield to shore up Martha Coakley’s campaign:

The DSCC will launch ads on behalf of AG Martha Coakley (D) as she battles to preserve Dems’ 60-seat majority in the Senate.

The DSCC has purchased $567K in ads in the Boston and Springfield markets, a source tells Hotline OnCall.

The move is the most overt DC Dems have made so far in shoring up their candidate in the race against state Sen. Scott Brown (R), demonstrating the party’s worry that Brown is gaining ground ahead of next Tuesday’s election.

Earlier, the MA Dems, in concert with Coakley’s campaign, launched a 2-day ad blitz in the same 2 markets at a cost of $288K.

That’s over $800,000 from the party in just 48 hours. And they’re not buying ads because they’re believing that Boston Globe poll that puts Coakley up 15 points over Scott Brown, either. The fact that they have to have an ad buy in Boston should be rather unnerving for Democrats around the country. Democrats own Boston — or at least they did.

Meanwhile, what’s Coakley doing today? Knocking on doors, meeting with voters, addressing the issues? According to CNN’s Ed Henry on his Twitter feed, not exactly:

Coakley obviously needs some late cash, but good idea to be hanging with DC lobbyists one week before Election Day instead of campaigning?

It’s a good idea if you’re out of cash and have to get bailed out of a bad campaign effort by the state and national party organizations. Speaking of which, that money may have been earmarked for other races, like Nevada, Arkansas, and Connecticut. Massachusetts was supposed to be a lock. If they have to flood the zone in Boston, what does that say for the DSCC’s chances in November in purple and red states?

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Rasmussen: Brown cuts Coakley?s lead from nine points to two ? in a week; Update: Dem private poll shows Coakley by five

posted at 5:29 pm on January 12, 2010 by Allahpundit
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Too sweet to be buried as an update to the last post. In fact, if you exclude leaners, Brown actually leads by one ? which syncs perfectly with that PPP poll over the weekend.

I?m starting to believe. A little. Maybe.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.

Three percent (3%) say they?ll vote for independent candidate Joe Kennedy, and two percent (2%) are undecided. The independent is no relation to the late Edward M. Kennedy, whose Senate seat the candidates are battling to fill in next Tuesday?s election.

Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.

71-23. Any reason to think any of those numbers are true, incidentally?

Remember, the left would have you believe that all Rasmussen polls come straight from Satan?s statistics department.

Yeah, there?s a reason:

In a sign of serious worry about the increasingly tense battle for Ted Kennedy?s seat, the Democratic National Committee and the Martha Coakley campaign have blasted a private memo to top national Dem donors claiming internal polling shows the race is ?very tight? and making an ?urgent? appeal for donations.

The memo, which was sent over by a source, is the latest sign that the campaign surge of GOPer Scott Brown has caught the Dem establishment off guard. It admits that the mobilization by big national conservative groups for Brown is ?working? and acknowledges that the Dem camaign is ?having trouble moving independents.??

?We have a battle on our hands,? the memo continues, beseeching donors to ?max out? with a contribution of $2400. ?We cannot win this race unless everyone comes together and gives this race everything they can.?

AP?s pessimism meter level: 2.5, indicating a mere likely chance of defeat, down last week from 9.5, a.k.a. catastrophic seppuku-inducing humiliation.

Update: Whoops, typo in the headline. Coakley?s lead was nine, not seven. Now corrected.

Update: Good news and bad news from Taegan Goddard. The bad? Democratic private polls reportedly show Coakley by five. The good? Last week, Democratic private polls showed Coakley by 14.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Yeah yeah, I know Brown's a RINO (big Roe supporter, like Romney as MA Gov) but this is just sooooo awesomely awesome!!!

arty

tank · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Coakley in trouble? Pharma and HMO lobbyists to the rescue

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...sts-to-the-rescue-81067542.html#ixzz0cS2al74u

Tell me the Dems are helping people with this health care bill.I want to see Brown win now more than ever.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO

Coakley says no more terrorists in Afghanistan

posted at 10:12 am on January 12, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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Jim Hoft caught this odd statement from Martha Coakley in last night’s debate, a moment that went mainly unnoticed before now. While most of the post-debate attention has focused on Scott Brown’s Reaganesque moment in declaring that the Senate seat doesn’t belong to the Kennedy family or the Democrats but to all Massachusetts voters, Coakley had a Gerald Ford-esque moment on the war in Afghanistan. She declared Afghanistan to be terrorist-free and wants the troops to come home now:

I think we have done what we are going to be able to do in Afghanistan. I think that we should plan an exit strategy. Yes. I’m not sure there is a way to succeed. If the goal was and the mission in Afghanistan was to go in because we believed that the Taliban was giving harbor to terrorists. We supported that. I supported that. They’re gone. They’re not there anymore.

The timing on this was rather poor, considering the deaths of eight CIA officers in Afghanistan just ten days ago at the hands of a suicide bomber. Jim clips together the suicide bomber’s valedictory message made just prior to his attack to underscore the point. The terrorists are definitely still in Afghanistan, both foreign and domestic, and capable of carrying out attacks.

Now, one could make an argument that our presence in Afghanistan provokes terrorist attacks such as the one that killed the eight CIA officers less than two weeks ago. I’d disagree with that — we weren’t in Afghanistan until after al-Qaeda firmly established itself there, with the blessing and the bidirectional support of the Taliban government — but it’s still an arguable point. Coakley didn’t make that argument, however, but instead insisted in quasi-Orwellian fashion that there are no terrorists left in a nation that just had a terrorist attack.

In the 1976 presidential campaign, Gerald Ford lost whatever chance he had for victory by asserting that Poland wasn’t under the direction of the Soviet Union, making him look detached from reality and throwing the election to Jimmy Carter. Hopefully, the voters of Massachusetts will make the same determination about Coakley in the aftermath of this debate and send someone much wiser than Carter or Coakley to Washington.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

How bad is life for Democrats these days?

King Hussein (from whom all blessings flow) will not come to Taxachusetts to save this monumental political disaster. That is how bad their internals are looking.

Still, expect ACORN to flood the state, massive voter fraud and Coakley to squeak out a victory (with a recount if necessary).

*sigh*

PRAY!

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Btw, that Rasmussen poll was taken before the Coakley meltdown on statewide television.

OP:

Joe Contrarian · Jan 12, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Shocker: SEIU Goons Place $685K Ad Buy for Coakley

Well, the desperate Democrats are already paying the unions to campaign for Martha Coakley, with some very mixed results, and it's panic at the disco tonight with the bombshell poll showing the race a virtual dead heat.

So of course here come the goons from SEIU investing heavily in a race thought to be a gimme just a couple weeks ago. If I'm Brown I announce another money bomb to match SEIU's contribution. He'd probably have it by midnight.

A major national union supporting Democrat Martha Coakley is taking out a massive TV ad buy that slams her Republican rival, Scott Brown, for his positions on abortion and climate change.

The ad taken out by the Service Employees International Union, will begin airing statewide tomorrow. The buy size is $685,000, one of the largest of the election.

?Before you vote for Senate, here?s a few things you should know about Scott Brown,? says a narrator in the 30-second spot. The narrator then says he ?has repeatedly opposed a woman?s right to choose? and he ?expresses skepticism that climate change is being caused by humans.?

Brilliant. When most of the nation is locked in a deep freeze, these mega-tools are going to bring up the discredited man-made global warming hoax. As for opposing a "right to choose," Brown is pro-choice so that line of attack just reeks of desperation.

I know the morons running Coakley's campaign can't spell, but are they really this stupid? Well wait, it gets dumber.

?No wonder Brown?s campaign is being supported by the same extremist group that backs Sarah Palin,? the narrator says. ?Martha Coakley for Senate. Massachusetts values.?

Remember every election cycle we're constantly warned about negative attack ad? Well, Coakley's running nothing but, yet our moral superiors in the media don't seem concerned.

As a side note, it's curious how mythical "climate change" came up in last night's debate, but only as a question to Brown. Check out how "fair" David Gergen was with his questioning.

To Republican Scott Brown, Gergen asked, "Would your preference be to see Roe v. Wade overturned, is that your preference? ... Do you support Roe v. Wade?"

And his follow-up question to Brown: "Do you believe that climate ? global warming ? is caused by man-made activities ? or are you skeptical?"

To Democrat Martha Coakley, Gergen asked: "I wonder ? looking back ? whether you think it was the right decision to insist on three people at a debate?" She answered yes, and expanded on why.

And his second question to Coakley? "As you look back on the campaign ? do you have any second thoughts about the way the campaigns unfolded?" Her answer: "Absolutely not."

Real tough questions to Coakley there, Dave.

I'm surprised Gergen didn't walk over and massage her feet.

tank · Jan 14, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

How dare the unions contribute to a candidate.Let's leave this to the Pac's, Lobbyists and Corporations since they have everyones best interest in mind right??

mr merlin · Jan 14, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

I doubt if the stupid dems in Mass will actually vote for Brown...but if they do, then the chimp is in big trouble.

tank · Jan 14, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

mr merlin said:
I doubt if the stupid dems in Mass will actually vote for Brown...but if they do, then the chimp is in big trouble.

It is the same people that kept sending Kennedy back so it will be a huge upset if they do send a Republican.Yes Barry would be in a world of trouble then.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 15, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Massachusetts Miracle

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Joe Contrarian · Jan 15, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Breaking: Obama may go to Massachusetts after all; Update: Will campaign with Coakley on Sunday

posted at 12:00 pm on January 15, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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Politico notices a buried lede in the Boston Globe?s morning report on the Massachusetts special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate. With Haiti crumbling, a war to fight, and ObamaCare negotiations hitting a high-pressure point, Barack Obama could only offer a two-minute snoozefest of a web ad in support of Martha Coakley. Now it looks as though Rahm Emanuel may be sounding the red alert at the White House and get Obama on the ground in Massachusetts (emphases mine, h/t Geoff A):

The White House has shown increasing alarm about the race, with Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel placing calls to top Massachusetts Democrats to assess Coakley?s chances and weigh the costs and benefits of a potential Obama visit.

Former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani urged voters who rallied in Boston?s North End to elect Brown for his anti-terror credentials.

?His election, I believe will send a signal ? and a very dramatic one ? that we?re going in the wrong direction on terrorism,? said Giuliani, who opposes having the trial of Sept. 11 terror suspects in New York City. ?

A Coakley loss was long viewed as unthinkable among local political analysts and observers. The state not only has a Democratic governor, but overwhelming Democratic majorities in its House and Senate, as well as an all-Democratic congressional delegation.

Just this week, the White House insisted Obama would not involve himself directly:

It was only Monday that White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that campaigning for Coakley was ?not on the schedule.? Asked if the campaign had asked the White House for help, Gibbs said, ?Not that I?m aware of.?

There are two problems with an Obama intervention now. It would signal to everyone just how desperate Coakley has become. And while Democrats might cheer a little retail campaigning by the Campaigner in Chief, his presence would serve to remind people of Coakley?s ongoing absences from retail campaigning. Brian McGrory made a point of reminding Boston Globe readers about her lack of dedication:

Martha Coakley made a jaw-dropping declaration earlier this week at the only live televised debate in Boston that she has deigned to do. She said, and I quote, ?I?ve traveled the state and met tremendous people.??

If she did, it was under the cover of darkness, with an assumed name.

Because if she had really traveled the state, if she had taken the time to meet voters, Coakley wouldn?t be in the position she finds herself in now, heading into the final weekend of this special election campaign in a perilously close race against a GOP state legislator nobody had heard of a mere six months ago. ?

Literally, she all but vanished. She refused to debate on TV unless it was exactly on her terms. She went days without venturing out in public. When she did appear, it was typically to accept endorsements from elected officials or union heads in front of supportive crowds. She may have gone the first month of the campaign without ever meeting an honest-to-goodness rank-and-file undecided resident.

The second problem? Obama?s track record on the campaign trail has not been stellar. He linked himself to Jon Corzine very publicly in October and November, calling Corzine his ?partner? ? and blue-state New Jersey voters sent Corzine packing in favor of Republican Chris Christie. At the same time, Obama couldn?t fill fundraisers in Massachusetts for Deval Patrick, either.

That Obama magic took place before all of the back-room dealing on ObamaCare and the job losses in December.

Obama may still decide to make an appearance ? but don?t expect it to do much good.

Update: National Journal?s Reid Wilson outlines Obama?s dilemma well:

If there were ever a time for a Dem pres. to ride to the rescue and hold last-minute rallies on behalf of an embattled candidate in a deep blue state, this is it. If there were ever a time for Pres. Obama to use his political capital and sheer force of will to drag a candidate across the finish line, this is it.

And yet Obama?s involvement in the race has not included a visit, or a TV ad. It has consisted of a single web video, emailed to supporters yesterday, endorsing MA AG Martha Coakley (D), and a robo-call launched today. ?

But, in reality, the situation is a lot worse for Dems than it appears. According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley?s campaign, the consequences of Obama?s visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley?s campaign.

Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.

?Obama is radioactive in polls,? said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign?s internal numbers. ?Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can?t take those kinds of chances.?

Damned if he does, and slightly less damned if he doesn?t?.

Update II: Damned if he does, from Jake Tapper?s Twitter feed at 1:50 ET today:

POTUS will travel to Mass. Sunday to campaign for Dem candidate Coakley

Yeah, but Coakley appear? Or will she be in DC huddling with lobbyists?

Joe Contrarian · Jan 15, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Suffolk poll: Brown 50, Coakley 46

posted at 10:20 pm on January 14, 2010 by Allahpundit
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Oh ? my.

Although Brown?s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey?s margin of error, the underdog?s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

?It?s a Brown-out,? said Paleologos, director of Suffolk?s Political Research Center. ?It?s a massive change in the political landscape.??

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley?s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided?

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy?s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the ?national near-universal health-care package? and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The difference in favorables is enormous. Coakley? 49/41. Brown? 57/19. Even worse for Coakley, 64 percent of voters think she?ll win ? precisely the sort of complacency that has Dems terrified about turnout.

AP pessimism meter check: 1.0, down from 1.5 earlier today, indicating likely chances of a long night of ballot-counting that ends in razor-thin, tear-stained defeat.

Update: Just noticed upon re-reading that Suffolk has the same number of Dems crossing for Brown as PPP did last weekend ? 17 percent, a shocking amount. Also shocking:

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

The Democratic sample is +24 ? and Scott Brown still leads?

tank · Jan 15, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Obama has a 60% approval rating in Mass. so he is not the problem.Coakly ran a terrible campaign and she is borderline Palin when it comes to the IQ department.It all spells defeat to me.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 16, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

The ?Kennedy seat? attitude isn?t helping

posted at 8:48 am on January 15, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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The impulse was so obvious that Republicans in Massachusetts wondered what took Democrats so long to indulge it. Everyone knew that Vicki Kennedy, the widow of late Senator Ted Kennedy, would eventually make a public pitch for Martha Coakley as the true, legitimate heir to the ?Kennedy seat.? What no one could have predicted is that it would backfire (via Jules Crittenden):

Big-name Kennedy endorsements for Martha Coakley appear to have been little help to the Democrat in the U.S. Senate race ? and may have even hurt her with some voters, a new Suffolk University/7News poll shows.

The late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy?s widow, Vicki, and nephew Joseph Kennedy II gave the attorney general their official blessing last week.

But of the 500 voters surveyed, only 20 percent said the Kennedy family nod made them more likely to vote for Coakley, and 27 percent said the endorsement made them less likely to support her. ?

?For independents, it doesn?t appear to have a positive effect. In fact, it may have had a negative effect,? said David Paleologis, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

They apparently were looking for a little Change, and perhaps some Hope, too ? that the voters could actually select their own Senator without the presumption that it was reserved for royalty, or the nobility?s hand-picked successors. Part of the problem may be the timing. Vicki Kennedy didn?t endorse anyone during the entire special-election cycle until two weeks before the election ? and then only when Coakley began to look vulnerable. The whiff of desperation is not usually a political aphrodisiac, even in Massachusetts.

After last night?s big shocker in the Suffolk poll showing Brown up by four points, even with a Democratic sample of +24, Pajamas Media?s new poll in the state puts Brown up by ?fifteen points?

A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget ? an Alexandria VA survey research firm ? shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday?s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

This is the first poll to show Brown surging to such an extent. A poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center ? published Thursday morning by the Boston Herald, but taken earlier ? had Brown moving ahead by 4%. ?

1. Thinking about next Tuesday?s special election for US Senate. The candidates are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. If the election were today, who would you vote for? If Scott Brown press 1, if Martha Coakley press 2. If you are undecided press 3.

1. Scott Brown 53.9%
2. Martha Coakley 38.5%
3. Undecided 7.6%

Phone-IVR polls are a tricky business, and I?m not aware of the track record of CrossTarget. They have a partisan gap of +16 for Democrats, with 43% independents. That may seem a little low for Democrats in Massachusetts, but +24 is probably too high. Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008 by 26 points after getting an extraordinary turnout and much more Republican crossover than Coakley will have in this election. If I had to guess, I?d put the registration gap somewhere around +20 and Democrats at a higher percentage of the population than 36%, but put the turnout model closer to what CrossTarget shows in its poll.

The Washington Post is already setting up Coakley for the fall:

The seeds of the drama that could see the Senate seat held by the late Edward M. Kennedy slip to Republican control began to sprout during what is traditionally the quietest week on the political calendar.

?Things began to change the week between Christmas and New Year?s,? said Eric Fehrnstrom, a strategist for insurgent Republican Scott Brown. ?That?s the week we put our JFK ad up.?

The commercial, which aired for only five days, depicted John F. Kennedy, the Democratic congressman who 58 years ago ran an insurgent campaign to capture the Republican-held ?Cabot seat,? morphing into Brown, the obscure state senator who surveys suggest might do the same with what?s become known as the ?Kennedy seat? when grumpy Massachusetts voters go to the polls on Tuesday.

But although the audacious spot was ripe for challenge ? the tax breaks JFK trumpeted were the calibrated adjustments of a committed Keynesian, hardly a philosophy embraced by Brown ? not a peep was heard from the campaign of Martha Coakley.

Having won the Democratic primary by remaining the aloof front-runner, the state attorney general was not about to engage with a Republican whom the latest poll showed trailing her by 30 points.

?Not a bad strategy, by the way,? Fehrnstrom acknowledged. ?But when the shift in voter mood and opinion takes place, and you fail to catch it, then it becomes a disaster. And I think that?s what happened with her. I think she did not sense the movement in what they should have known was a very volatile electorate.?

Get ready for the spin: Coakley was a bad candidate ? it has nothing to do with national policy. You?ll be hearing that a lot if Brown wins on Tuesday, and it?s at least somewhat true. Coakley is a bad candidate. But even bad candidates win elections in Massachusetts, as John Kerry?s continued presence in the Senate demonstrates. There?s a lot more going on here than Coakley?s incompetence, and every Senate Democrat that has to vote on ObamaCare knows it.

If ObamaCare gets a Republican elected in Massachusetts, what does that mean for Democrats in Arkansas? Nebraska? Indiana? Pennsylvania? We may not need Brown as the 41st vote against cloture by the time the polls close on Tuesday night.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 16, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

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Joe Contrarian · Jan 16, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Not a shocker: Police department that ?acted stupidly? endorses Brown

posted at 9:24 am on January 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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In July, the very last time Barack Obama held a press conference, Obama took the time to offer his thoughts on the professionalism of the Cambridge Police Department in their arrest of his friend Henry ?Skip? Gates. After saying that Sergeant James Crowley ?acted stupidly? despite not having ?all the facts,? several of Crowley?s colleagues expressed their support of him by announcing that they wouldn?t vote for Obama in 2012. Their union has found a way to make their displeasure known much earlier ? by endorsing Scott Brown over Martha Coakley:

All Members,

Members of our Association have inquired and requested that we endorse Scott Brown in the upcoming election against Martha Coakley. Ms. Coakley along with some of her campaign workers have talked publicly about how her husband is a retired Cambridge Police Officer, giving appearances that she is being endorsed by the Cambridge Police. This may be an innocent insinuation but most do take this as our giving her our support and endorsement. Yesterday, the CPPOA Executive Board voted to endorse State Senator Scott Brown in the upcoming election for US Senate. In an 11 to 2 vote, the Executive Board voted overwhelmingly in favor of the endorsement. We do not endorse anyone who advocates changes in the health care that take away any bargaining rights or increases our cost along with our contributions. Senator Brown does not support the Comprehensive Healthcare Reform Bill and promises to be the 41st vote to ensure its defeat. The current leadership at the state house, as we all know and have seen over the past two years, have an agenda to dismantle all of our hard earned bargained benefits and they will continue to dismantle these until there is a complete change from the top down. Martha Coakley is part of this Massachusetts leadership and she will continue with this agenda, only now it will be at the capital level and we need to stop it. So today, we the members of the Cambridge Police Patrol Officers Association endorse Scott Brown for the senate seat vacated by Senator Kennedy.

Fraternally,
Stephen Killion
President Cambridge Police

There are a couple of points of embarrassment here. First, Coakley?s husband, as Killion notes, was a former Cambridge police officer. Not only didn?t that give Coakley an edge, the 11-2 vote shows that it didn?t make much difference at all. Note too that the union opposes Coakley expressly on ObamaCare, but from the perspective of protecting their collective bargaining ability. They?re accusing her of being more or less anti-union, an interesting charge coming from any union towards a Democrat.

The other embarrassment comes with having an AG get opposed by a police union, which we saw in Worcester as well. We missed another instance of a police organization turning its back on the highest-ranking law enforcement officer in the state earlier this week, too ? when the State Police Association of Massachusetts endorsed Scott Brown:

Joe Contrarian · Jan 16, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Video: “It’s the end of change as we know it” if Brown wins MA

(And I feel fine.)

posted at 10:45 am on January 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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Give Mr. Hyperbole, Ed Schultz, his due here. First, he manages to stay within the bounds of reason in this clip, discussing the potential impact of a Scott Brown win over Martha Coakley in Massachusetts. He also argues, correctly, that moderate Democrats in states a lot less Democratic than the Bay State will have to rethink their position on the Obama agenda, even if Schultz laughably calls Joe Lieberman a “Blue Dog” Democrat. He only gets off base when he calls Obama’s response “angry,” when in fact “bewildered” looks more appropriate (via Mary Katharine Ham at the Weekly Standard):

The only way Schultz’ prediction fails is if the red-state Democrats like Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Evan Bayh, and others believe the spin that Coakley’s loss is entirely her fault and not a reaction to the Obama agenda. Even lousy candidates get elected to statewide office in the Bay State as long as they have a D next to their name, however, so don’t expect them to ignore the obvious. If the backlash to the Pelosi-Obama agenda can take out a safe Democratic Senate seat in Massachusetts — or even come close to losing it in one of the bluest of blue states — then moderates in red states like Nebraska, Indiana, Arkansas, and others don’t stand a chance. They’ll start looking for reasons to reassert their independence, starting with ObamaCare and continuing with cap-and-trade. Schultz is right — it will be the end of the Obama agenda as we know it. 91023i2ndw;l :houra

op: :+excited-

But what does that mean for 2010 and Democratic leadership? Nancy Pelosi is probably safe for now, but Harry Reid may no longer be necessary. If the Senate can’t get a health-care bill passed with 60 Democrats, it won’t get one passed with 59, either. The reasons Reid hasn’t yet admitted defeat for his seat in Nevada, where he polls below 40% now, are (1) he has millions in his campaign warchest, and (2) he can’t push through ObamaCare as a lame-duck Majority Leader. The Massachusetts race shows fairly clearly that millions of dollars won’t rescue a Democrat from the outrage that the Obama agenda has provoked, and Reid’s continued presence has become an albatross around the neck of his son Rory, who wants to run for governor on the damaged brand of the Reid name. If ObamaCare runs aground, there isn’t much reason to linger to November to take his well-deserved beating at the polls.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 16, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Ed Schultz on Brown: “I’d cheat to keep these bastards out”

posted at 4:30 pm on January 16, 2010 by Allahpundit
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What do you expect? Defeat would, after all, mean “the end of change as we know it.” I’m leery of very short audio clips when the content is as incendiary as this is, but Brian Maloney re-checked the tape and assures me that it’s not taken out of context. Has it really come to this?

The call to cheat comes, incidentally, just as the fine folks of SEIU are rolling into town. What could go wrong? Click the image to listen.

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brucefan · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

<EMBED src=http://www.youtube.com/v/OmNpcMHwOa8&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1 width=425 height=344 type=application/x-shockwave-flash allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always">:+excited-</EMBED>

Joe Contrarian · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

The White House Is Predicting a Coakley Loss?
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BCTTWR · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

I hope the people of Massachusetts boo the negro out of town.

mr merlin · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Will he use his "negro dialect" when he's there...or not?

Joe Contrarian · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Poll: Brown up 9.6%

posted at 6:10 pm on January 17, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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A few caveats are in order before considering the details of this new poll. The media outlet that commissioned it, InsideMedford.com, looks like blog, but its articles appear to avoid any opinion tilt at all. The pollster is not a well-known outfit, but the report says they work with Harvard’s Kennedy School Center for Public Leadership — an irony in itself. The poll was conducted by telephone IVR, which has its advocates and detractors.

With the stage set, the results will certainly please Scott Brown’s backers — and also corroborates what I noted earlier about turnout modeling:

A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.

Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president’s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president’s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.

The poll’s sampling looks a lot more realistic than ARG’s from late last week as well. The D-R-I split in this poll is 34-17-48, giving Democrats a more realistic +17 partisan advantage. Plugging that split into ARG’s responses produces 50.62% support for Brown, and 42.07% for Coakley, or a lead of 8.35%. That’s within the margin of error in both polls, and reinforces my earlier analysis on the effect of turnout models on polling.

One interesting internal from this poll: Coakley and Brown split the women’s vote, 46% each. Brown has a 30-point advantage with men, a 30-point advantage among self-professed moderates, and a 20-point advantage among voters younger than 45. Any one of those findings are shocking in major races in or out of Massachusetts, but all of them put together spells disaster for Democrats, and not just in this special election.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

BCTTWR said:
I hope the people of Massachusetts boo the negro out of town.

Hahahaha....nice call. 91023i2ndw;l

You can tell the chimp is rattled! :houra

*********************************************************
Video: Hecklers interrupt Obama’s speech for Coakley

posted at 5:22 pm on January 17, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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Mediaite’s Joe Coscarelli captures this rather lengthy moment at Barack Obama’s appearance for Martha Coakley today. The big news here isn’t so much that a heckler appeared at a Coakley rally — with passions this high, it would have been news if one hadn’t — but that a series of hecklers threw Obama so far off his stride. It didn’t matter to the people who attended this rally, of course, but it’s a bit strange to see an experienced politician allow a couple of loud voices to interrupt for as long as this goes … and then to ask “Where were we?”

How long before Democrats start painting this as “thug tactics?” Or have they already? At least no one tackled any reporters.
<iframe src="http://videos.mediaite.com/embed/player/?content=26H91Q29VJBS7MGT&widget_type_cid=svp" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" allowtransparency="true" width="420" frameborder="0" height="451" scrolling="no"></iframe>
Update: Via Noel Sheppard at Newsbusters, MS-NBC shot video of the protesters themselves:

tank · Jan 17, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley?s supporters approve of President Obama?s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown?s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president?s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president?s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.

[copied and pasted from Joe's post]

This is what scares me.Two-thirds of undecided voters approve of Obama!!They could help get this ding bat elected.She is a terrible candidate!!

Hey Joe did you also happen to see all those pictures of the union members wearing Brown shirts and endorsing him??Over 40% of union members vote Republican.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Brown's gotta win by a comfortable margin (10 points or more) to be immune from all the fraud flooding the state.

If it's not close, they can't cheat.

If it's close, the Democrats win -- always.

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Predictable.

*******************************************************************

If Coakley Loses, Fast Forward for Health Care ?

By Michael McAuliff

Not only could Democrats lose health care reform if Martha Coakley loses, they could also lose their majority, says Bronx Rep. Eliot Engel.

And that?s why, if Coakley goes down, you can expect a rush to get the bill through.

?I?m telling you, Massachusetts, if it goes wrong, is going to be a big catalyst to push a vote,? said Bronx Rep. Eliot Engel, who is among many in the House frustrated with how long the Senate took.

?They will tell us that it?s now or never, we?ve gotta have a bill, we?ve gotta do this, we?ve gotta do that,? Engel predicted, should Coakley lose as many Democrats now fear. ?If we don?t vote on whatever bill we compromise on, then health care reform is killed, the majority is gonna get killed..?

That?s because not only would the Democrats have failed at their top promise, but the whole process would leave a nasty taste in the nation?s mouth.

?I think the worst thing would be to do no bill at all, because what would happen is we would have the negativity of the contentiousness, of the fighting and the distortions, and then not come up with anything,? Engel said. ?It would be 1994 all over again, it would look like we just can?t produce.?

Given that, he?s confident his party will get it together, and do what it has to.

?The tell us that it takes 10 days to count the vote in Massachusetts, so I?m sure they?ll be doing a very slow count,? Engel said, only half joking.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dc/2010/01/if-coakley-loses-fast-forward.html#ixzz0cwKTmtMx

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Still won't believe it until Brown is sworn in as US senator but...

********************************************************************

Sunday, January 17, 2010
Massachusetts Senate Poll

Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.

Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley's favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.

Here's what we found:

-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.

-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.

-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.

-56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley's supporters only 73% think she's made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown's supporters think he has.

Full results here

BCTTWR · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Hahahaha....nice call. 91023i2ndw;l

You can tell the chimp is rattled! :houra
12io4j2w90Even hand picking the crowd with Obama lemmings for his desperation speech for Coakley, he still got heckled.

mr merlin · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

God, I cant wait for the next year, the chimp will be lucky if his approval is 40%.

Having said that the republicans will be fortunate to put up anyone who isn't
a nutcase.

roscoe · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Joe Contrarian said:
Brown's gotta win by a comfortable margin (10 points or more) to be immune from all the fraud flooding the state.

If it's not close, they can't cheat.

If it's close, the Democrats win -- always.

really. does the 2000 presidential election ring a bell? another ridiculous statement!

BCTTWR · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Patrick Kennedy reapeatedly called the Democratic nominee "Marcia".

KENNEDY DOESN'T EVEN KNOW HER NAME!

<CENTER>

</CENTER>

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Pollmania: Brown leads by seven in ARG, ties Coakley in Daily Kos

posted at 4:17 pm on January 18, 2010 by Allahpundit
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Apologies if Ed’s already covered this, but there’s only one thing people want to talk about and so much info flying around that we’re bound to repeat ourselves at some point. Two new polls out within the last few hours, each with problems but credible enough to warrant flagging. Kos’s pollster, Research 2000, has Brown erasing an eight-point Coakley lead last week to make the race a dead heat at 48, which is right in line with every other survey showing big mo on his side. Even so, I don’t buy this detail:

Daily Kos added a favorability question, and there Coakley has a slight edge over Brown, with 58% favorable-31% unfavorable to his 51%-30%. Both are in positive territory, though, and there’s no time to capitalize on her edge in any case.

Coakley, whose own supporters in the Kennedy clan can’t even remember her name, now has a seven-point edge in favorables on Mr. Excitement? ‘Fraid not, kids. Just three days ago, Suffolk had Brown’s favorables at +38 versus just +8 for Coakley; five days before that, PPP had Brown at +32 and Coakley again at +8. Even allowing for some erosion in his numbers from her campaign’s “rape” smears, ain’t no way that she’s overtaken him or is remotely near anything like +27 herself.

As for ARG, about which I’ve cautioned you before, it’s sunshine and candy canes for Scotty B:

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.

Brown leads Coakley 97% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 64% to 32% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 73% to 23% among registered Democrats…

A total of 8% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 54% to 44%, with 2% for Kennedy.

97/1 is an unlikely break even among jacked-up conservatives, but 73/23 among Democrats isn’t so far-fetched: More than one poll taken a few days ago showed him pulling 17 percent of Dems. MKH notes that he’s actually picked up two points among women in this one, which may be a sign of a backlash to the “rape” smear or may just be momentum working its momentum-y magic. AP pessimism meter level: 0.5, the lowest possible reading, indicating razor-thin defeat spun as glorious moral victory.

To keep you fired up, a little video treat from yesterday’s “people’s rally.”

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Wow: Insider Advantage poll for Politico shows Brown by nine

posted at 4:47 pm on January 18, 2010 by Allahpundit
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I’ve always thought IA was reputable, but they actually did worse than ARG on that 2008 primary report card that I keep linking and people are telling me on Twitter (not just lefties, either) to proceed with caution. Duly noted.
But an awful lot of numbers from an awful lot of people today seem to be heading in this direction.

According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.

“I actually think the bottom is falling out,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley’s fall in the polls over the last ten days. “I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her.”…

Brown holds a 15-point lead among males and crushes Coakley by 41 points among self-described independents, a group that’s been steadily inching away from the Democratic party over the last year due to growing apprehension with government spending, bailouts and health care reform…

And the survey shows almost a quarter of Democratic voters lining up with Brown.

That’s exactly what ARG showed, handing 23 percent of Democrats to Scotty B. So what makes this poll so interesting? Ah: It was conducted last night, after The One’s descent from Olympus to Massachusetts. Either he did nothing for her or … he made things worse. :houraOr, I guess, she could be cratering so badly that he broke her fall a tiny bit. A nine-point lead today instead of the 10-pointer it would have been?

Believe it or not, IA’s CEO thinks they may be lowballing Brown’s lead by undersampling independents. One detail gives me pause, though: They have Brown winning 61/30 in the 18-to-29 group, which should be ground zero for Hopenchange fee-vah — especially with all the college liberals in Massachusetts. Even with heavy momentum for Brown, that’s simply impossible to believe.

Exit question: Given the stakes for ObamaCare, would this be the biggest upset in modern political history? Chris Cillizza floats a few other candidates for that honor, but go see for yourself. It’s no contest.

Update: And with this, the AP pessimism meter is officially unplugged. From Time’s Karen Tumulty:

coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. they’ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.
:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO

Joe Contrarian · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

<tt><tt><tt><center>[FONT=ARIAL,VERDANA,HELVETICA][SIZE=+7]
TOMORROW IS THE DAY!
POLL: BROWN UP BY 9
[/SIZE][/FONT] </center>  </tt> </tt></tt> <center> <tt><tt> </tt></tt></center>

BCTTWR · Jan 18, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Quote:
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset" class=alt2>coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. they?ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.
:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>:+excited-

Joe Contrarian · Jan 19, 2010

Re: Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

Elections results:

http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html

Unbelievable!! RED invades BLUE!! GOP's Scott Brown could win Dead Kennedy's senate seat in Taxachusetts!!!

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