Week 9 MLB action...

#1
Worst week of my life last week. Lost (-13.53 units)

New week. 5 out of 8 weeks with a profit.

108 - 129 -2 overall (-8.00 units)

913 - NY Yankees RL -105 vs Cleveland (1.1 units)

Lost a heartbreaker yesterday with the pinstripes but Sowers is no Pavano. Yanks make batting practice out of guys like Sowers. Weve seen what also happens, in this series, when the Cleveland bullpen takes to the hill. Which should happen by the fifth at least.

913 - NYY/Cle over 10 -105 (1.1 units)

Yanks might cover this by themselves by the sixth and I sure the Indians will add a couple off of Joba.

903 - Milwaukee +102 @ Florida (1 unit)

Heady vet with playoff contention team vs wild hurler who is prime fodder for Milwaukee slugging. Teams like the Brewers can get a lot of runs in this stadium and they can hit the fastball as well as anyone. Florida not winning much at home this year.

Peace.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#2
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Good luck NatBump...new month and time to turn it around. Time for a hot streak.
 
#4
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Thanks X and dio, we'll get em this week. And beyond.

Adding for Monday:

913 - NY Yanquis RL -115 (1.2 units)

Now a 2.3 unit play. A rare throwdown at this point in my bankrolls size. Now a sort of play of the week here. Sowers better stock up on the aspirin for tonight. I feel a headache coming on for him. I got mine just in case he pulls a rabbit out of his ass.

909 - Phillies -115 (1.2 units)

This could very well be a trade audition for Blanton to the Padres. SD is a great place to live and Blanton could build a nice career in the spacious confines. Dont really know what hes doing in Philly but the future looks bleak for him in that hitters park as the weather warms up. I think Correia will come down to earth and a team like the Phillies is just the team to do it. Great series to fade the Padres.

911 - Arizona +150 (0.6 units)

Ya'll knew it was coming. Just gotta act on my psychic sense in some small way. If I lose it will prove to be a psychotic sense of self flaggelation but I gotta put a little something on it so I wont want to kill myself should I prove to be right. This will qualify as the "WTF game of the day" should the D-Backs pull it off. Hoping Buckner has his good command today and Kuroda has trouble working out the kinks off the DL. Feel the timing is ripe to fade a fat Dodger team traveling late in from Chicago last night. Arizona was likely tucked into thier hotel suites in time to watch, scout, and plan the ambush I hope will occur tonight.

:devil:
 
#6
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

3-2 for Monday (+1.92 units)

Quite pleased with my little moral victory on the D-Back Psychic "WTF play of the week", but watching the Yanks kill my over play by blowing a potential rally just about every inning.... they shouldve scored 15 runs easy. Oh well, just glad come out with a decent profit today. Heres a couple for tomorrow....

963 - Phillies +162 @ SD (1.5 units)

This might be one of the best dogs Ive seen all year. I think the reason the dogs didnt show much in May was because they heard Mike Vick was being released. Now that he has been kept on house arrest nice and tight I think the dogs might come out more in June. But seriously, a debut pitcher with wicked double A stats on a solid playoff power team. I like. Peavy gets to test his temper against a thin skinned umpire (Dreckman) who doesnt like to call the low strike and doesnt like demonstative pitchers. Long road trip didnt seem to affect the Phils in game one and they should be even fresher tomorrow. I think they can get more off Peavy than the Padres will off Bastardo from what I can read.

2 tm parlay
965 - Arizona +105 @ LAD w/under 7.5 -120 (0.5 units)

I like Harens form a lot here and Wolf is in a nice groove as well. Fading the Dodgers for a spell til they prove they got it goin on again is what Im trying to do. Think the under correlates great with this matchup and that way Im not sticking my neck out too far unit wise. Im sure we'll see Pena again should we get a save situation and I expect to see a much tighter performance in his second day of consecutive action. After almost blowin game 1, he will pound the K zone and go for the jugular with better command and power after getting a little stretched out on monday. Zona squad looked focused and sharp. Dodgers still a little hazy. Thats not so easy to break out of sometimes and they have a history of streakiness.

Still got a handful of enticing games I might play but I think these are the strongest and I may not mess with too many games for a spell.

Good luck and Peace. :thumbsup
 
#7
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Good luck today Natty, glad to see you in + money today.

Like your Phillies play, was leaning that way myself, probably won't end up playing but looks solid.
 
#9
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Adding:

952 - NYM/Pitt under 7.5 -130 (1.5 units)

Almost played this originally and really screwed myself by waiting. But cant let my superstitions about me and totals put me off an obviously good situation. Pitchers park, under ump, one hall of fame lefty vs a very good at home lefty in a park that is typically very kind to left handed flyball pitchers and 2 good bullpens (most of the time). Many respectable cappers on this as well, which has pushed me over the top. Hope I dont mush it for you guys.

Adding to my Philly action also:

963 - Philly +153 @ SD (0.5 units)

Now a 2 unit play.
 
#10
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

952 - NYM/Pitt under 7.5 -130 (1.5 units)

Under is 8-3 in Santanas last 11 starts overall.


Under is 5-1 in Dukes last 6 starts overall.

Under is 5-2-1 in Barretts last 8 games behind home plate.


GL!!! !5tp
 
#14
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

2-1 for Tuesday (+3.85 units)

5-3 for Week 9 (+5.77 units)

Hope I can keep it up.

Wednesday action:

907 - Cubs +122 @ St.Louis (1 unit)

Favor Lilly form over Lowe right now look for the Cubs to bounce back off the blown save as well. Definitely see some life in the bats and think we'll get a good pitching performance from Lilly in this park. Nice price, I think its got a little value for a live dog.

926 - Minnesota +100 vs Cleveland (1 unit)

Always lookin for spots to play Minny as a home dog. Swarzak looking pretty good and I dont care how good C.Lee is (has been touchable of late) .... Cleveland sucks right now. Coach Wedge twitchier than usual lately. Love to watch him twitch.

913 - Philly +105 @ SD (1 unit)

See no reason not to fade the Padres with yet another dog here. Looks like the Phillies are very comfortable hitting every thing SD has thrown at them in the friendly confines so far. No reason why Chris Young should be any different. Happ is decent enough to hold SD down and give the Phils enough to take this one too.

Good luck and Peace.
 
#18
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

What would a day be without adding a few plays?

Didnt want to play this many so instead of a stupid parlay I decided just to play them for a little less. I would be very surprise though if I dont hit at least two of these.

906 - Florida -105 vs Milwaukee (0.7 units)

930 - Seattle -123 vs Baltimore (0.7 units)

917 - Boston RL +110 @ Detroit (0.6 units)

1019 - Texas (1st 5 inns) +155 @ NY Yanquis (0.6 units)

Heres my original 3 to keep it all on one post:

907 - Cubs +122 @ Atlanta (1 unit)

926 - Minnesota +100 vs Cleveland (1 unit)

913 - Philly +105 @ SD (1 unit)

Good luck and Peace.
 
#23
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Appreciate the support CT and everyones tolerance with my dry spell. Hope things stay the way they are forevermore. :houra

Nice week so far. Gotta play it like a save situation every day though.

5-2 for Wednesday (+2.72 units)

10-5 for Week 9 (+8.49 units)

Thursday action:

966 - Toronto -110 vs Anaheim Angels (1.1 units)

I havnt seen the old Lackey yet this year and since Tallet has put up a longer 09' resume and consistantly better numbers I dont see how this line is justified. Toronto is the better team and has the better starting pitcher (at this time) on the hill. Not kicking Lackey to the curb as a quality pitcher just yet, its just that his stuff is lagging behind his cunning so far.

956 - Atlanta -126 vs Cubs (1.3 units)

Jurrjens is tough to downright nasty and is facing Cubs for the first time while the Braves know Zambrano like they know an old pair of slippers. Theyve hit old Z man from time to time too. I think with a 7 day layoff that this could be one of those times. Getaway day and the Cubs still not clicking on all cylinder. Braves not totally killing it either but with Chipper sitting out yesterday (with PH appearance) I think they win the series with him sucking it up tomorrow. Jurrjens has better numbers than Z also.

963 - Phillies -108 @ LA Dodgers (1.1 units)

963 - Phillies RL +145 (0.4 units)

Not too impressed with LAs recent series with the D-Backs and the Phils are looking like theyd like to move out west. Short change of hotels and thier back to whack the slumping Dodgers. Kershaw appears to be off a 7 day layoff. Something that I take very seriously for flame throwers, especially young ones, when they pitch on 6 or more days rest. Six is marginal but 7 or more seriously fucks with thier command most of the time. Hamels should get on track here. Dodgers ripe for the plucking by a Eastern division leader that is currently is fine form.

Good luck and Peace.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#24
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Good to see it turning around for you this week...keep it rolling NatBump. Best of luck.
 
#26
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Wow surprised you're big on the Phils.. I have that game as a coin-flip.. Oh what do I know, you are the man!!
 
#27
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

I dont hate the Dodgers. Its just time to fade them and the Phils are red hot. Except for the one inning explosion in the eighth inning on tuesday they have done almost nothing. And that was the D-Backs. Garland nearly shut them down tonight too. Kershaw might have trouble being this is the first time he has pitched on more than 5 days rest. Now hes on 7 days. Usually a bad formula.
 
#33
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

12io4j2w90Thanks CT and X.

Throwing in a 2 tm parlay. Lets call it...."Luv the Big Unit double header special". Dont worry mods, this is not a sex toy promo.

977 - Gm 1 Giants +125
954 -Gm 2 Washington +100

Think the Gs will give it thier all out effort to get this for Big Unit and will probably have little left for game 2 as they head off to Florida. Cain is tough to go against but the Nat are hitting pretty damned well lately and I expect most of the bullpen to be used to preserve Randys win should he get the lead. Out of respect theres a slight chance the Nats (knowing theres not much hope this year) may sort of take the foot off the gas if they are behind and save thier pen for game 2.

I generally shy away from double headers but I will take a shot here in a situation where I have a notion of where each teams priorities might lay. I could be all wrong but it at least makes sense to me.
 
#35
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Had 0.4 units on the 2 tmr. Really think Wash. had a chance to come back in this one. Bummer.

2-2 for Thursday (+0.10 units)

Gotta luv the Phils for letting me milk em for a nice run. Thanks dudes. Cant back em tomorrow though. Think the Dodger bats match up better against Moyer than the Phils do against Milton. Still cant play the Dodgers till they show some pop though so I will lay off this one. I will play Bastardo the next time if the price is fair.

12-7 for week 9 (+8.59 units)

Friday action:

922 - Boston -136 vs Texas (1.5 units)

Penny seems to get it done and I get the feeling he is getting better as things warm up. Hes been spoiled in So Cal for so long I suspect his number will improve as the temp rises. Millwood on the other hand seems to be wearing down a bit. Many high pitch counts under his belt early this year. Boston is also on a win streak and has been excellent at home. Considering some RL action. Will sleep on in and crunch some stats in the morning.

906 - Florida RL +130 vs SF (1 unit)

Cant lay -150 here but I think we can build a lead a lead against the Giants who have had a lot of trouble getting runs on the east coast so far. Zitos fly ball tendancies might be a liability in this park. Volstad looks to be back in form. Best thing here is SF coming off a double header and tough win to get the Big Unit milestone of 300 wins and a late travel into Florida. Hard to imagine Frisco is very focused for this game.

913 - Arizona +105 @ SD (1 unit)

Fading the Padres until I see a reason not to. Think the D-Backs got enough moxy after nearly taking two out of three with the Dodgers while facing bigger studs than Gaudin. Think Davis is a little better also.

928 - Oakland -117 vs Baltimore (1 unit)

Oakland showing signs of life at the plate and bring home a small win streak. Hope the surge doesnt get lost in the homeward migration. Braden form looks good and hes better and much more consistant at home than Guthrie is on the road. Respect some of Baltimores offensive potential but the breaking in of Weiters seems to have created a hole in thier lineup until he gets it going. Baltimore sucks on the road.


A little word on the future...... I like a lot of what I have been seeing from two organizations lately. These are the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles. Put it on record that I think these two team will be playoff bound in the next two to three years if not sooner.

Good luck and Peace. :thumbsup
 
#37
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Thats what they said about TB three years ago. They have the framework of a great offense and if Weiters gets going then theres another piece. Very nice stable of great young pitchers and the best are yet to come frome what Ive heard.
 
#38
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Thats what they said about TB three years ago. They have the framework of a great offense and if Weiters gets going then theres another piece. Very nice stable of great young pitchers and the best are yet to come frome what Ive heard.

Thats true..


Heard the O's attendance is waaaay down this season..
 
#39
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

BOL Natty, on three of those four for chasing plays.

Don't know whether that's a good thing for you or a bad thing after today. :LMAO

Well done on the Phils bud, you got that one right for sure.

Hopefully we're both winners tomorrow. :cheers
 
#40
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Thanks Bigdeal. Glad you got your Dodger chase. I would be hating to play Philly on Sunday if they were going for a four game sweep. Sort of hope LA takes Saturdays game too. I will be on Philly (assuming the price is fair) Sunday. 90 % sure.

2-2 for Friday (-0.60 units)

Went large on the wrong game and really felt unlucky in both losses. Lots of blown scoring opportunities wasted in both games for my side.

14-9 for Week 9 (+7.99 units)

Small card for Saturday. Had a few leans but still dont trust my totals and a couple of sides that didnt have very good value so I just threw em all on a lunch money parlay just in case. These included (just for the hell of it) : Toronto, TB, Colorado, TB/NYY under, KC/Tor over .

Heres my serious Saturday action:

960 - Cincy +116 vs Cubs

Rookie debut pitcher possesses the kind of numbers I like to see with a good/decent team as a home dog. I see both sides offensive struggles as wash. Maybe a small edge to the Reds for being at home. Dempster has slipped down a level this year and has really only given one remarkable road start this year (out of five if memory serves me correctly). This game could be a coin flip but I think the newness of the rookie pitcher and home field gives the advantage to Cincy with a very good value.

Good luck and Peace.
 
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