2 early ones for Saturday

#1
I am either going to look real good or real stupid with these but Ive had plenty of both sides in the past so here it goes again.

543 - UMBC +6 vs Binghamton (-120)

I was a little bored last night with the small number of lines available and decided to give myself a challenge and test myself with a conference I know little or nothing about. So bear in mind that I am treading on thin ice with this play.

UMBC returns a large portion of the team that went 13-3 and made it to the Tournament last year. They have basically underachieved and struggled to meet thier preseason expectations of this year, but they have have experience, especially successful post season experience as a team, and over the last two upset tournament wins that intangible is bearing fruit. Binghamton is on a great run with a make shift lineup of Jucos and transfers that all probably could have made it with bigger programs but for whatever reasons (grades, disciplinary etc....), they have been assembled by the second year coach in a bit of a quick fix gamble that has paid off big this year.

I look at this as a chance at redemption game for UMBC and they are getting really good guard and all around team play over the first two games of the conference. The 28 assist to 11 to ratio compared to Binghamtons 13 assists to 27 turnovers really stands out in my opinion. Although I make this game Binghamton -4 1/2 if I just take the last two tournament games I make UMBC the four point favorite. Just going by Sagarin ratings to make up the comparison lines in the last two games I have UMBC covering the numbers against better teams by a combined 13 points ATS while Binghamton has failed to cover my numbers by a combined 3 points ATS. These are just Sagarin point spreads and not actual odds so dont get riled if they dont jive with what the books have posted. I sometimes use them for strength of schedule or non board teams for a starting point.
These teams have split the season winning each game on thier home courts with Binghamton recently blowing out UMBC by 20. I think a little revenge might be in order today with a rejuvinated team looking to right thier season with another upset to make it back to the Big Dance.


516 - LSU -3 vs Miss St.

I cant make a great technical or ATS streak argument for this game so I wont even try. Miss St. is certainly on a very nice run and turning some heads lately. I have made the mistake of underestimating this LSU team earlier this year and just have a gut feeling I will do well by reversing my policy on them in the post season. I dont put a huge amount of stock in the fatigue factor but feel it can only work in my favor today. I also think this is a golden opportunity for LSU to secure a big reqruiting advantage and a possible coach of the year prop for Trent Johnson so I see no reason for LSU to hold back at any time the rest of this season.

I am currently 18-9, up 11 units for the week so I am probably due to be a good fade. Looks like the money and Micelli are against me on my first play so depending on your public theories ..... I do know that being on the other side of Micelli is not a very good percentage play right now so take it for what its worth. I am definitly out on a limb with both these games.

Good luck everyone, hopefully I can come in with one or two stronger opinions later on.
 
#2
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

<TABLE class=module_text style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=scoresRowsOdd>544</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> BINGHM</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> -</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> </TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> -</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> </TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> -5.0</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> </TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> -6.0</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> </TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> n/a</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> 92%</TD><TD class=scoresRowsOdd> n/a</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Natty you the man w the 8% ... was going to take binghampton but now.....maybe ill make it 8.00001 %
 

salex78

EOG Enthusiast
#5
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Natty you know Micelli is on binghamton at -5 the line now is -6 I was gonna take bingahmapton What makes you take the dog here ?
 
#9
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Ouch, thats a damn good motivational factor for Binghamton. But yeah, thats basically why these guys are there. They are bad seeds that were rejected not for thier skills but for thier behavior. Theyve probably had this chip the whole season however, hope theyre used to being shunned by now.

I may as well just tear up my ticket now....... :doh1.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#10
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

winky do you still like -6 micelli got it at -5 or 4 1/2
not as much as -5 but this looks like a 2B digits iwn by Bing

11-2 @ home vs 4-11 on the road and i only have to basically lay a handful of points? count me in - this one gets real ugly really fast
 

salex78

EOG Enthusiast
#12
Natty Are you on Baylor your cinderella team tonight

Natty Are you on Baylor your cinderella team tonight

Natty I succumbed to your cinderella Big 12 Baylor I took them at 6 bought the hook lets give it a shot I also took FSU asa dog +9 I think fsu covers today lol!! well maybe wins like to seea upset prob not
 
#13
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

natty got on binghampton at last minute decision sorry bud... looks like im on the 92% guest list... hope the crowd is right.
 
#14
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Best of luck, Natty :cheers

Didn't end up joining you on LSU/Baylor yesterday (didn't play them), but I wish I would've...

Woke up too late for the Binghamton game... :+textinb3
 
#15
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Adding:

517 - Auburn +5 vs Tennessee (-120)

Auburn is the hotter team right now. Tennessee might do something stupid at any given time and they are already "in" anyway. Looking pretty close in the stats department so Ill take the 5 points.

Dont know if Im just tired or my intuition is giving me a warning but Im just not feeling real confident today so I can safely say after looking over the entire card that this will be all I am playing today. 12io4j2w90
 
#17
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Hey LSU .....say good bye to Coach of the Year ... say goodbye to a top seed in the tourney and a possible sweet sixteen appearance. Say goodbye to outrecruiting Kentuck, Fla., Bama, Tennessee, and anyone else you might have snatched top players from over the next two years. Now you may wallow in the struggle while these teams surpass you and continue to in the next three or four years with stars that could have been yours for the taking. Nice fucking going. You just choked away a golden opportunity. Nice try Trent you came real close. See ya on the unemploment line in five years.

Sorry guys, that was an uncalled for and unfair rant. But Im gonna post it anyway.... 2348ji23e2348ji23e2348ji23e2348ji23e2348ji23e. I should have stayed in bed this morning. Anyone on Auburn should buy it back, anything I have today is DOOOOOOOOMED.
 
#18
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Please excuse me, I apologize for this embarrassing meltdown. I needed to vent. I have done a piss poor job of capping today. No bodys fault but my own. Hopefully Auburn will salvage a bit of this regretfull day.
 
#19
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Had these circled before the lines came out last night and see some winners on em tonight so Ill just keep trying. I have developed a more serene attitude in the last two hours and think I can turn this day around with a more positive attitude.

532 - Temple -4 (-120)

539 - Utah St. ML (even)

Definitly feel these are the better teams 8 out of 10 times and will take the plunge hoping my day will get better.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#23
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Good luck on the late games Natty...loving Utah tonight and not against Temple. :cheers
 
#25
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Thanks guys, Im off the hook for a shutout with the Temple win so I could really use Utah St. to make it mean anything. Big thanks to Micelli, I was really doubting myself today and his play on this team tipped the scales. I know this is his bread and butter.
 
#26
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

2-3 today. Not a very good day but very glad I was able to pick myself up after losing my first three and play the two leans for the evening. I almost gave up for the week. Definitely must thank the posters who were on these sides, they helped to give me the confidence I was lacking to play them. THANK YOU EOG and ALL who post here. Those who were on Utah St. and Temple know who you are.

I still have a pretty decent week going at 20-12 up 9.5 units. Only a half unit from my 10 unit weeklong goal. Im considering playing any or even all three dogs tomorrow but will sleep on it and take a fresh look early tomorrow. Good night, hope everyone had a great day. Seems like most did better than me. 12io4j2w90
 
#27
Re: 2 early ones for Saturday

Going to have a losing day in there everyone once and a while, Natty. If that losing day is 2-3... you're not doing to badly. Nice week so far. :cheers
 
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