2009 College Football Notebook

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

We need a Notre Dame take. The Irish are certainly one of the more interesting teams this year, with predictions ranging from 8 wins to 11. Speaking of which, Notre Dame -2 1/2 at Michigan is certainly a line worth looking at. Michigan is so helpless on offense that they brought in a former Duke Hoops star to audition at QB. I think that Charlie knows that a loss to Michigan would probably translate into a poor season and the loss of his job.

Hopefully I can bring a somewhat reasonable/unbiased opinion on ND. To be honest, I don't see how that line could be so low. I admit I haven't done much research on Michigan but I figured the line to be closer to . Perhaps they are overvaluing the homefield advantage.

One thing I will say is that I--along with many other ND fans--am almost more worried about the Michigan game in Ann Arbor than having MSU come to South Bend and play us the following week, despite losing to them last year and pounding Michigan.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

FINDING A CONSENSUS
(Using rankings by Phil Steele, Athlon, Lindy's and Yahoo, here is the consensus top 25)

1. Florida
2. Texas (the more we study this team the more we like them)
3. Oklahoma
4. Southern Cal
5. Alabama
6. Virginia Tech (Bama and VT opening week should be a good one)
7. Ohio State
8. Penn State
9. Ole Miss (won't slip up on teams this season)
10. Oklahoma State
11. California (could be a sleeper)
12. Boise State (with schedule, could go undefeated)
13. LSU (will bounce back from a 5 loss season)
14. Georgia (will surprise some folks even with a difficult schedule)
15. Oregon
16. Florida State (due for improvement)
17. Georgia Tech (great coach who just wins and will this season)
18. TCU (one of the best weight programs in college football)
19. Notre Dame (easy schedule)
20. Nebraska
21. Iowa
22. Kansas
23. North Carolina
24. BYU
25. Utah

A close look at the four magazines' top 25 rankings uncovers Steele's deviation from
the norm. There were nine teams who made only one of the rankings..six of which
landed in Steele's. Rutgers, for example, was the 16th best team in the country
according to Steele, but was not ranked by any of the other three. Steele also has
Notre Dame at No. 7, but Lindy's didn't rank the Irish at all and the other two had them
at No. 24. Of the four, Steele gave Alabama it's worst ranking at No. 8 but had the
Tide unranked for the 2008 season. Fun preseason stuff to look at and welcome your
comments.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

BOISE STATE - VIRGINIA TECH
The blue field team will head east to play the Hokies in 2010. School officials announced the match up yesterday. The Broncos and Hokies will play October 2nd at FedEx Field, in the Washington suburb of Landover, Md. Boise State will get a payout of $1.25 million to play Tech, one of the most successful college football programs in the past decade. Virginia Tech is 100-30 record over the last 10 years. The game completes the non-conference portion of the Broncos' 2010 schedule. Other nonconference games include Toledo, a trip to Wyoming and home game against Oregon State.

AUBURN
The Tigers landed anotheer commitment yesterday when receiver Antonio Goodwin pledged to play for Auburn next year. Goodwin, who plays at Washington High in Atlanta, marks the fifth Auburn commitment from Georgia. Rivals rates the 6 foot 2, 170 pound receiver as a four star prospect and the 37th best receiving prospect. With Goodwin now in the mix, the Tigers have 12 commitments for its 2010 class.

ALABAMA
Opelika High School senior running back Corey Grant committed to the Tide yesterday when he chose Bama over Florida and nearby Auburn. He is the 18th member of the Class of 2010 to pledge his services to Alabama and the second in two days. Brian Vogler, a 6'8" tight end from Georgia, became No. 17 on Wednesday when he chose Bama over Oklahoma and Georgia. Both are rated 4star by the rating services.

GEORGIA
Senior quarterback Joe Cox hasn't played all that much, but Dawg coach Mark Richt says he already has the confidence of his teammates. Rict said yesterday at Southeastern Conference Media Days that the majority of the team picked Cox as the best leader. He said they had confidence Cox could get the job done the past two years if Matthew Stafford had been injured. Richt said he could have a package that takes advantage of backup Logan Gray's athleticism. Highly touted freshmen Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray could get some playing time if one of them secures the backup spot. Mettenberger and Murray are two outstanding QB prospects who entered school early and took part in spring drills.

ILLINOIS
Head football coach Ron Zook has received a one year contract extension. University trustees on Thursday approved the agreement keeping the fifth year coach under contract with Illinois through January 2014. The agreement does not include a raise. Zook makes just over $1.5 million a year. Zook's last raise was in January 2008. That followed the Illini's surprise trip to the Rose Bowl and a 9-3 season. The team went 5-6 last season and didn't play in a bowl game.

 

[crazytrain]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Gotta agree with ya on the Jackets Clover. I think Ga Tech has a great year, believe they will be the toughest team in the ACC....JMO

 

[junkman773]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

FINDING A CONSENSUS
(Using rankings by Phil Steele, Athlon, Lindy's and Yahoo, here is the consensus top 25)

1. Florida
2. Texas (the more we study this team the more we like them)
3. Oklahoma
4. Southern Cal
5. Alabama
6. Virginia Tech (Bama and VT opening week should be a good one)
7. Ohio State
8. Penn State
9. Ole Miss (won't slip up on teams this season)
10. Oklahoma State
11. California (could be a sleeper)
12. Boise State (with schedule, could go undefeated)
13. LSU (will bounce back from a 5 loss season)
14. Georgia (will surprise some folks even with a difficult schedule)
15. Oregon
16. Florida State (due for improvement)
17. Georgia Tech (great coach who just wins and will this season)
18. TCU (one of the best weight programs in college football)
19. Notre Dame (easy schedule)
20. Nebraska
21. Iowa
22. Kansas
23. North Carolina
24. BYU
25. Utah

A close look at the four magazines' top 25 rankings uncovers Steele's deviation from
the norm. There were nine teams who made only one of the rankings..six of which
landed in Steele's. Rutgers, for example, was the 16th best team in the country
according to Steele, but was not ranked by any of the other three. Steele also has
Notre Dame at No. 7, but Lindy's didn't rank the Irish at all and the other two had them
at No. 24. Of the four, Steele gave Alabama it's worst ranking at No. 8 but had the
Tide unranked for the 2008 season. Fun preseason stuff to look at and welcome your
comments.

The only thing wrong with Texas is the play in the Big 12 south.

To many tough teams. OKL, OSU,TT, Baylor (yes I said Baylor they will shock a few)

Gators all the way12io4j2w90

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Too many tough teams? How many of them won their bowl games last year? Other than Texas, I beleive the number of Big 12 South teams that won their bowl game was NONE!!! Please. OU, Okie State and Texas Tech were nothing more than defenseless teams playing teams with real defenses for a change. I think that Texas easily wins the Big 12 South. Their non-con schedule comes straight out of the bakery. Cream Puff. Texas Tech will be a non-entity this year. They will win their cream puffs and go to some minor bowl. Okie State has ZERO defense. Texas will not forget how they lost to a defenseless Texas Tech last year away from home. They get Kansas and Colorado at home. All they have to do is beat OU and take care of business, and they are home free. IF Texas does not make it to the Big Game, then I hope that no Big 12 team makes it. Other than Texas, they are as bad as the Big 10 when it comes to BCS games.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Junk, looking into my 'Crystal Ball' for the championship. I have TEXAS vs FLORIDA. Most
of the time my crystal ball turns out to be an iron ball during preseason.

Agree with you and glad to see someone give BAYLOR some love. Our gang really likes
Art Briles. He's a good coach and with 18 starters coming back and a young QB with
great potential, they might just beat a team or two they are not supposed to.

Good team to keep an eye on.

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Time to head out to Del Mar. We have a horse running out there today. A bit of a shot, but what the hell. At least we get to sit in the owners box. I agree with Clover. Florida vs Texas in the NC game with Texas coming out on top.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

BigDaddy, you went to the races and we hit the golf course. Hope you had some luck
sir. Hell, I broke 90 today and won some cash off my buddies. Crazy, but I had rather
win $180 bucks golfing off my buddies than $500 on a ball game.

TENNESSEE'S KIFFIN ON FLORIDA'S TEBOW
Kiffin a former NFL coach thinks Florida's Tim Tebow will be a great quarterback in the
NFL. Doubts have been raised by some analysts as to whether Tebow's skills and style
of play will translate well to the NFL. Kiffin, who recruited Tebow while he was an
assistant at USC, recalled similar questions arising when the 2007 Heisman Trophy
winner was a senior at Nease High School. "I was sitting there with some other college
coaches and one of the coaches said, "I dont't know with his throwing motion . Maybe
he's a fullback or something," said Kiffin, who coached the Oakland Raiders before
taking over at UT. "I look at the guy and said, "Do you watch film? Do you watch this
guy? "The guy is a great competitor. He wins every game he plays. He makes every
throw. Is every throw a perfect spiral? Who cares? It's just like a home run hitter. Do
your really care how he comes to the plate and his stance, how he swings? What are
the results?" Kiffin said he envisions Tebow's transition from the college ranks to the
NFL to be much the same. In doing so, he also added a somewhat surprising prediction
...coming from him..for Tebow's senior year for the Gators. "I think there are going to
be a million articles written after Tim has a great year, and I would think with all the
great players, they'll win another national championship and he'll win the Heisman. I'm
not joking, I'm very serious about that. He can play in the NFL."

Was Florida 70 Tennessee 0
Now Florida 52 Tennessee 0

Played golf all day and all we talked about was football. Some Tom Watson
but mainly football. Getting near my friends. Button up!

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Muleriders Opening Week $300 To Win Contest

10 sides and 10 totals

Not open to forum. (Others will be)
Crazy
Bigdaddy
Gyno
Noob
Ballwonder
Hoffa
Firehorn
Tango
Cannon
Chuckluck
(others will be added, 25 max) thanks fellows........................................

Will have some good ones as season progresses....

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

add HoganKnows (loyal SOB to EOG) loves football

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Thanks Clover...Should be a fun year:cheers

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Looking forwrd to it. Thanks Clover. Well, our horse ran 4th yesterday, out of the money for the bettors, but in the money for the owners (Del Mar pays 1-5) Not much at all. Won't cover the feed bill, but it is a start.

Did you guys see where Suprrier admitted that he was the coach that did not vote for Tebow on the pre-season All SEC team? The startling thing about his admission is the he has NEVER voted for anyone in the 17 years he has been coaching in the SEC. He lets someone else do this. He also said that he has no idea why the coaches poll even exists, because coaches rarely vote in it, and have no clue. Spurrier has a vote on the coaches poll. A startling, but very honest admission from him. I gained some respect for Spurrier telling it like it really is.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

MULERIDERS OPENING WEEK INVITATIONAL
($300 TO WINNER)

*10 GAMES (SIDE AND TOTAL)
*3 TIEBREAKERS (ALL FROM ALABAMA/VIRGINIA TECH GAME)

1. ALABAMA VS VIRGINIA TECH
2. GEORGIA VS OKLAHOMA STATE
3. COLORADO STATE VS COLORADO
4. BYU VS OKLAHOMA
5. MARYLAND VS CALIFORNIA
6. MISSOURI VS ILLINOIS
7. NEVADA VS NOTRE DAME
8. STANFORD VS WASHINGTON STATE
9. BAYLOR VS WAKE FOREST
10. BUFFALO VS UTEP

*LINES WILL BE POSTED MONDAY WEEK OF GAME. LINES WILL BE TAKEN FROM USA
TODAY NEWSPAPER....THAT WAY IT'S FAIR TO ALL.

*IF YOU ARE INVITED AND DO NOT WISH TO PARTICIPATE...PLEASE LET US KNOW SO
WE CAN ADD SOMEONE ELSE.

*KNOWING THERE ARE SOME WHO POST UNDER MORE THAN ONE NAME. IF WE LIST
SOMEONE AND THEIR GHOST, PLEASE LET US KNOW. AGAIN, WANT THIS FAIR FOR
EVERYBODY.

INVITED SO FAR:
1. Ballwonder
2. Bigdaddy
3. Cannon
4. Chuckluck
5. Crazytrain
6. Firehorn
7. Gyno
8. Hoffa
9. Hoganknows
10. Muleriders (not eligible for money..playing for fun)
11. Noob
(Will add more later)

JUST A LITTLE MORE THAN A MONTH UNTIL KICKOFF. HOPE THIS CONTEST CAN
BE A FUN WAY TO START THE SEASON. THANKS MEN.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

TENNESSEE'S KIFFIN ON FLORIDA'S TEBOW
Kiffin a former NFL coach thinks Florida's Tim Tebow will be a great quarterback in the
NFL. Doubts have been raised by some analysts as to whether Tebow's skills and style
of play will translate well to the NFL. Kiffin, who recruited Tebow while he was an
assistant at USC, recalled similar questions arising when the 2007 Heisman Trophy
winner was a senior at Nease High School. "I was sitting there with some other college
coaches and one of the coaches said, "I dont't know with his throwing motion . Maybe
he's a fullback or something," said Kiffin, who coached the Oakland Raiders before
taking over at UT. "I look at the guy and said, "Do you watch film? Do you watch this
guy? "The guy is a great competitor. He wins every game he plays. He makes every
throw. Is every throw a perfect spiral? Who cares? It's just like a home run hitter. Do
your really care how he comes to the plate and his stance, how he swings? What are
the results?" Kiffin said he envisions Tebow's transition from the college ranks to the
NFL to be much the same. In doing so, he also added a somewhat surprising prediction
...coming from him..for Tebow's senior year for the Gators. "I think there are going to
be a million articles written after Tim has a great year, and I would think with all the
great players, they'll win another national championship and he'll win the Heisman. I'm
not joking, I'm very serious about that. He can play in the NFL."

Was Florida 70 Tennessee 0
Now Florida 52 Tennessee 0

Played golf all day and all we talked about was football. Some Tom Watson
but mainly football. Getting near my friends. Button up!

Interesting, Clover. Where'd you get that quote from? Seems to go against the trend for Kiffin. Maybe he's coming to his senses a little bit.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Tim, came from SEC Media Days last week in Birmingham, Alabama. All the head
coaches plus a couple of players met with the media.

Lot's of good stuff came out of those three days.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Yeah I saw some of the clips but didn't come across that quote. Do you think his intention was to soften up some of the bulletin-board material that cover's the Florida locker room or was he being genuine?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Now, getting back to football without any further interruptions from the CM crowd, I am amazed at the difference between the "games of the year" pointspreads at Sportsbook.com vs Vegas. In two games involving UNC, they are dogs at one and favorites at the other. 4 or 5 point differences are rather common.

I noticed this as well, BigDaddy.

This just stresses the importance of being able to get down at as many different places as possible, especially this year, when the books are going to get hit hard by the economic slump, and will not be able to sell off a lot their wagers, like they could do in the past.

I'll be at school in South Bend this fall so obviously I won't be getting bets down at different Vegas sportsbooks (that and the fact that most of my money is going towards paying off my tuition), but seeing sharper players like you do this interests me nevertheless.

What exactly is the goal when you see different lines at different books? Say for instance one book has ND +10 vs. USC and another has ND +6. Would you hit the ND +10 at the first book and then the Southern Cal -6 at the second? Just wondering how you approach this.

Also, what do you mean by the books "selling off their wagers"? Say 100k was bet on ND and only 30k on USC? Would they put another 20k on USC at a different book to ensure a winning game (due to the juice)? Thanks for helping clear this up.

I am looking for bigger differences in the books, especially the offshore books which do not handle a lot of action and are more suseptable to large wagers. Remember, the newer and smaller the book, the tougher it is for them to sell a wager to another book. The larger books, or books that are owned by the same group (the Greek and Bet Jam for example) have a lot more to fall back on. If you just play offshore books, I suggest sticking to your current books and keeping away from new ones, especially if you have had no problems with your book. If you want to diversify, opt for books with solid reputations and financial backgrounds. Also remember this. Books are in business to make money. If they have to start giving the house away by giving away freebies, they are probably not on very solid financial legs. No one is going to give you a free vig day unless they are desperate for action. The smaller the book, the bigger the risk of you losing your investment dollars. Make sure that your book is on solid footing. Do not ask your book for this information. No book is going to admit that they are hurting. Get your information from independent sources, and use more than one.

Thanks for the advice. What sources do you consider independent and credible for assessing the financial footing of different sportsbooks? Would SBR fall under this category?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

One more question for you guys (BigDaddy, Clover, etc) and sorry if I'm that annoying 4 year old who asks questions nonstop for a 2 hour car ride. As I said before, this will be my first full year betting. I bet towards the end of last year and the bowls and pretty much broke even but I'm obviously looking to do better this year.

Anyway: I was looking at some of that thread with the early lines and was wondering what you thought about so-called "trap" games where it appears the line is too easy (normally for the favorite). One example that I keep coming across is ND -2, -2.5, -3 at Michigan the second week of the season. Everyone I've seen loves the ND -. So my question is do you get worried when everyone loves the same play such as this that the oddsmakers might know something you don't and thus trapping you into betting into a line that looks good but in reality has poor value?

ND might be a bad example because I find it hard to believe that the Vegas linemakers would know more about ND and the players (many of whom I know personally) than I do but it's just a general question.

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Depends whose on the game with me. If it someone I consider to be a sharp better I am glad we see it the same way. If its a guy who pick his own nose I go back and reanalyze the game to see if I missed something or is he just getting lucky.

One of the things that worked well in here last year was different people would post a game they were looking into and we would discuss the game back and forth without the animosity you see at other places. At the end you could see clearly why someone liked the game. Then you could decide if the reason was enough to wager on.

That's kinda what happened in the ND thread...We all put in our reasons and found a play in the Mich game.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Attn: Ballwonder or Hoffa

If either one of you guys will confirm (verify) that IrishTim is who he says he is, then
we will add him to the contest. He seems to be a good citizen who loves college foot-
ball and we always pull for the college kids.

There are Ghosts in the air....we already pegged a few....that's the main reason for
the contest being an invitation only. Appreciate your help men.

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Class move Clover...He seems to be a good guy.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Thanks a lot Clover and Noob, I appreciate it :cheers

I just read through my last post and wasn't that clear, but thanks for the helpful response Noob. What I was trying to ask was do you think Vegas occasionally sets lines that are intended to "trap" people into taking a very appealing line (for example a public team -2.5)? I guess the bigger question is does Vegas ever take a side like this, trying to get say 65% of the action on one side on what they believe is a bad line, or do they always want to break it down 50-50 and scoop up the 10% vig?

The ND (in my opinion, a public team) -2.5 (very appealing line because people basically translate it it to "just win" with the TCU-Boise St. bowl game excluded) vs. Michigan (a team that was very bad last year) line would be a good example of this if I didn't think ND covers this game by 7+ points.

BigDaddy's post about books selling off their bets (seemingly to get their action 50-50) got me thinking about this.

Also, clover, if you don't want these more theoretical questions in here and want to keep the notebook for just discussion of the teams/games, just let me know and I'll start a new thread. The reason I put it in here was because (1) I wanted to hear from this thread's main contributors specifically and (2) I know this thread gets a lot of views and hopefully, thus some good responses.

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Thanks a lot Clover and Noob, I appreciate it :cheers

I just read through my last post and wasn't that clear, but thanks for the helpful response Noob. What I was trying to ask was do you think Vegas occasionally sets lines that are intended to "trap" people into taking a very appealing line (for example a public team -2.5)? I guess the bigger question is does Vegas ever take a side like this, trying to get say 65% of the action on one side on what they believe is a bad line, or do they always want to break it down 50-50 and scoop up the 10% vig?

The ND (in my opinion, a public team) -2.5 (very appealing line because people basically translate it it to "just win" with the TCU-Boise St. bowl game excluded) vs. Michigan (a team that was very bad last year) line would be a good example of this if I didn't think ND covers this game by 7+ points.

BigDaddy's post about books selling off their bets (seemingly to get their action 50-50) got me thinking about this.

Also, clover, if you don't want these more theoretical questions in here and want to keep the notebook for just discussion of the teams/games, just let me know and I'll start a new thread. The reason I put it in here was because (1) I wanted to hear from this thread's main contributors specifically and (2) I know this thread gets a lot of views and hopefully, thus some good responses.

I think they do on certain games. If Junkman participates in the forum this year he would post a thread showing where the money was coming in on certain games. There were times the line just made no since if the book was trying for 50/50 on the game.

The game would have 70% of the money coming in on the fav at -3 and the book would drop the line to -2.5 to get even more money on the fav. And sure enough it seemed the dog would win SU and the book would make a killing on that game.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

I think they do on certain games. If Junkman participates in the forum this year he would post a thread showing where the money was coming in on certain games. There were times the line just made no since if the book was trying for 50/50 on the game.

The game would have 70% of the money coming in on the fav at -3 and the book would drop the line to -2.5 to get even more money on the fav. And sure enough it seemed the dog would win SU and the book would make a killing on that game.

Interesting. You answered exactly what I was asking. How would you approach a game like this where for instance 70% of the money was on the fav -3 and the line moved to -2.5 ("reverse line movement" as I've seen it called). Would you folks side with the 30% on the small dog or just lay off?

As a college football fan, I don't know if I could ever make a wager strictly off of line movement. I have to think that I see an advantage on the field/situation in order to put money on a play, not just line movement, no?

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

I usually bet with the dog side, the books are in the business to make money so in my opinion they know something we don't in these situations..

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

SEC FOOTBALL
The Southeastern Conference championship game will remain at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta at least through 2015. SEC Commissioner Mike Slive said Monday the league has agreed on a five year extension to keep the game at the Dome. The game has sold out every year except for 1995, the year after its move to the dome. Last year's matchup between Alabama and Florida drew nearly 76,000 fans, the most to attend a sporting event in the Georgia Dome. The 2009 champinship game will be December 5th.

VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies are the overwhelming preseason pick to win a third straight Atlantic Coast Conference championship. Virginia Tech earned 69 of 87 votes from media members at the ACC Football Kickoff preseason event in results released Monday. Virginia Tech was picked to beat predicted Atlantic Division champion Florida State in the title game, which will be December 5th in Tampa, Florida. The Hokies have won three league titles since joining the league in 2004, including the past two ACC championship games.

OHIO STATE
Ohio State is the media's preseason favorite to win the Big Ten title. The Buckeyes boast 12 returning starters from last year's Fiesta Bowl team, which went 10-3 and tied Penn State at 7-1 in conference play. That includes preseason Offensive Player of the Year Terrelle Pryor, who won eight of nine games as a starter, Ohio State's first true freshman to start at quarterback since 1978. The Buckeyes have won or shared four straight conference titles. Penn State, coming off its second conference title in four years, was picked second after going 11-2 and playing in the Rose Bowl. Michigan State was picked third. Spartans linebacker Greg Jones was selected the preseason Defensive Player of the Year after leading his team and finishing third in the conference with 127 tackles last season as the Spartans went 9-4.

AUBURN
The flurry of commitments rolling into Auburn continued when defensive lineman Kenneth Carter pledged to sign with the Tigers. The 6'5", 270 pound tackle from Greenville announced his decision Monday. Rivals has him rated as a three-star prospect. Carter gives the Tigers 14 commitments, including six in the past two weeks.

**adding Munson to the football contest.

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Thanks a lot Clover and Noob, I appreciate it :cheers

I just read through my last post and wasn't that clear, but thanks for the helpful response Noob. What I was trying to ask was do you think Vegas occasionally sets lines that are intended to "trap" people into taking a very appealing line (for example a public team -2.5)? I guess the bigger question is does Vegas ever take a side like this, trying to get say 65% of the action on one side on what they believe is a bad line, or do they always want to break it down 50-50 and scoop up the 10% vig?

The ND (in my opinion, a public team) -2.5 (very appealing line because people basically translate it it to "just win" with the TCU-Boise St. bowl game excluded) vs. Michigan (a team that was very bad last year) line would be a good example of this if I didn't think ND covers this game by 7+ points.

BigDaddy's post about books selling off their bets (seemingly to get their action 50-50) got me thinking about this.

Also, clover, if you don't want these more theoretical questions in here and want to keep the notebook for just discussion of the teams/games, just let me know and I'll start a new thread. The reason I put it in here was because (1) I wanted to hear from this thread's main contributors specifically and (2) I know this thread gets a lot of views and hopefully, thus some good responses.

There are two possible scenarios that you have to look for. One is the so called "Trap" line, which is descrobed corectly in your post. What you should remember is that Vegas sets a "trap" line very rarely. They are in the business of making money, not wagering on football.

The second scenario happens a lot more often. This is the so called "bait and switch", where the "cartels" and "high rollers" manipulate a line to their liking, in order to dump huge amounts of money the other way. Notre Dame is now -2 1/2 against Michigan. The object of a bait and switch is for everyone to think that Notre Dame is the play, driving the line up to 3 or 3 1/2, so they can dump big time on Michigan and get a better value. That was just an example. Normally, "traps" and "bait and switches" are pulled on games that are not that big in the public eye. Notre Dame has a lot of "faders" who dumped on Michigan, and that is the reason why the line is down to 2 1/2. Also remember that it does not take a lot of action to move a "futures" line.

The biggest worry you should have is not reading into the lines too much. The number of games that may be affected by these types of moves is very small, and it is a 50/50 shot as to whether you are on the right side of them or not. I strongly suggest that unless you wager very early (Sunday afternoon or evening for the following week's games) and very late, you just concentrate on trying to find bad lines. Wager as you normally would, no matter how fishy a line may look. Their just are not enough games influenced by "traps" or "bait and switches" to really worry about.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
Top to bottom, football in the SEC may be as good as it's ever been. With several ex-NFL head coaches in the conference, most teams adding a handful of the nation's top players each year and stadiums around the league expanding continuously, the SEC is gaining power in a snowball effect type way. We know that in the South, but now a TV package with ESPN unlike any in college sports will make it obvious to the entire nation. Decided last year and beginning this fall, ESPN will have rights to every SEC home football game not on the network package and all league matchups will be shown on one of the ESPN channels, including at least 20 a year on ESPN and ESPN2. It's a 15 year deal, reportedly worth $2 billion. As you look around the league, the list of weak links is now extremely short. Florida may be many people's pick to win the Eastern Division, but the suspense comes in whether they can go undefeated. It is feasible for at least three teams to win the SEC West. Post game interviews with various SEC head coaches usually reveal one similar thought. They are just happy to escape with a win. We love football in the South. Now with the SEC at its best, we get to share that with the whole country.

NEBRASKA
For the Cornmen, it sure seems like the good old days again. The Cornhuskers are favored to win the Big 12 North. They can score a lot of points. And no Big 12 team enters the season with a longer winning streak. Second year head coach Bo Pelini says while things are moving in the right direction again, his players "don't feel like Nebraska's back." Instead, he said Monday at the opening of Big 12 media days that the Huskers are starting to understand what they can become as a team and where the program needs to be.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
Southern Conference coaches have unanimously picked Appalachian State to win the league title again. The Mountaineers have won or shared four straight SoCon football titles and bring back 18 starters from last season, including quarterback Armanti Edwards, the coaches' pick as the offensive player of the year, and linebacker Jacque Roman, the SoCon preseason defensive player of the year. The coaches picked Wofford second. The Terriers' only SoCon loss last season was to Appalachian State. Elon was picked third, followed by Furman and Georgia Southern. There was a tie for sixth between The Citadel and Samford. Western Carolina was picked eight, and the coaches voted Chattanooga last.

**adding Mo to the contest.

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Top to botom, the SEC may be as good as ever, but at the top, I'm not too sure. Georgia will have to scramble to equal last years win total. There is no other competition in the SEC East. The rest are average, or worse. "Bama may be on the road back, but you woud never know it by watching the Sugar Bowl last season. LSU is probably a year away. Everyone seems to be on Mississippi, this years "it" team in the SEC, but they lost 4 games last season. The SEC is getting better in the middle, but thinner on top. It has been Florida or LSU for a while now, and that is the way it appears it will stay.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

BD, the SEC will have some early tests including the following:

Georgia at Oklahoma State (Wk 1)
Alabama vs Virginia Tech (Wk 1)
S. Carolina at North Carolina St (Wk 1)
UCLA at Tennessee (Wk 2)

I look for Florida, Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss to represent themselves well
this season. Sure will be fun to see how things play out.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Muleriders $300 To Win Update

Invited So Far:
1. Ballwonder
2. BigdaddyQH
3. Blondie
4. Cannon
5. Chuckluck
6. Crazytrain
7. Ego74
8. Firehorn
9. Gynecologist
10. Hoffa
11. Hoganknows
12. Junkman
13. Mofome
14. Muleriders (fun only)
15. Munson15
16. The Noob
17. Road Dawg
18. Romanowski
19. Tango Papa

*If you are posted twice, PM me in private and let's take care of it in private.
*Had planned on 25 but can see it will be more.
*Anyone invited is welcome to recommend a good football guy loyal to EOG.
*If you don't enjoy this type contest, please let me know so I can add others.
*Always welcome your suggestions but we will make final decisions. Thanks men
and lady.

More to come...........................

 

[crazytrain]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Cannon is Blondies ghost! Not fair to the rest of us:LMAO

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Good one Nighttrain.

We like ole Cannon. He's a good guy that sometimes turns into a horses ass like Cloverleaf does at times.
Don't sell the dude short...he has some football smarts. He and Chuckluck go back
a few years as some of our favorites. Never a dull moment with these two guys.

Should be fun my friend.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Add Nedrow to list.

My mistake Mr. N, had you on the board and just missed it.

I apologize sir.

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Where are you out of Clover...I'd like to meet you guys and Crazy for a drink or 12 one day:houra

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Noob, would welcome the opportunity and we would even buy.

Born and raised in Alabama....moved to Atlanta for about 30 years and now
back in God's Country.

Gardenpeas, Noob......hope you take up were you left off last season son.
You made of some good money. Muleriders are going to try to beat you in
this contest so select some good ones.

 

[The Noob]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Where in Bama?...I have a project in Troy.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Noob, you are down in southeast Bama.

God's Country is North Alabama....beautiful country.

Not much in Troy but a fine University and solid Football team.

 

[crazytrain]

Re: 2009 College Football Notebook

Good one Nighttrain.

We like ole Cannon. He's a good guy that sometimes turns into a horses ass like Cloverleaf does at times.
Don't sell the dude short...he has some football smarts. He and Chuckluck go back
a few years as some of our favorites. Never a dull moment with these two guys.

Should be fun my friend.

:+textinb3Cannon always a good read Clover, just fuckin' around counting the days! And Noob, we should find a way to hook up with the Riders gang for a game this season! We would have one hell of a time, I can assure that:+excited-