2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#1
Made the drive into Vegas today, got a haircut, and played a casino promotion for many hours. Starting 2021 with a modified baseball system (not doing anything stupid like betting favorites or overs), but the method for picking sides/unders is different than before.
Due to the slight success of these threads during football season, I thought I'd start one here. Also, it should be good to actually try to track a record. The three games I bet for tomorrow are
Yankees-Jays under 8 (-120)
Rays-Marlins under 8 (-120)
Astros-As under 8.5 (-115)

Other than that, I spent the entire winter in Clark county, playing casino promotions with better than average success, eating comped steaks, and just generally avoiding responsibility.
Word is that sports betting goes legal in South Dakota September 1st, so if that goes off, it'll mean a pretty epic road trip.
No great pictures lately, but the one hobby I have other than gambling is studying graffiti in Southern Nevada. It's ubiquitous, and I'm turning into the guy in this movie.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under_the_Silver_Lake

These stickers are everywhere, and. I'm more and more convinced there's some deep, secret meaning/code behind many of them.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#4
I like the Angels as a home dog today. I expect numerous cancellations. 35 degrees is usually the magic number. Often teams won't cancel because they have the big gate from Opening Day. That isn't happening this year.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#5
I like the Angels as a home dog today. I expect numerous cancellations. 35 degrees is usually the magic number. Often teams won't cancel because they have the big gate from Opening Day. That isn't happening this year.
30-35 for the cubs opener.
 
#8
70° in Denver. Kershaw hates Coors Field and has pitched like dog s*** in spring training and the Rockies are well the Rockies..... Over 11 just seems too easy.....
 
#10
Can only hope the Cubs game goes off, under 7 seems way too strong. Game time predicted to be 33-37 with north winds between 14-17mph with higher gusts. All the makings of a 2-1 game.
 
#12
70° in Denver. Kershaw hates Coors Field and has pitched like dog s*** in spring training and the Rockies are well the Rockies..... Over 11 just seems too easy.....
I'm not looking at any overs until we get a feel for how this new ball plays out. Coors might be the most impacted for all we know.
 
#16
Bad pitchers can make up for bad conditions.
What books do you like use for MLB?

I've noticed TheScore #s are terrible. I have a couple of thousand dollars coming to me in free bets and I was hoping to use them on MLB dogs but their prices can be 15-30 cents lower than everywhere else.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#17
Can only hope the Cubs game goes off, under 7 seems way too strong. Game time predicted to be 33-37 with north winds between 14-17mph with higher gusts. All the makings of a 2-1 game.
Those two message boards they put in really affect the unders there now. I got unfer 10.5 live in the 2nd inning, hope we both hit.
 
#20
What books do you like use for MLB?

I've noticed TheScore #s are terrible. I have a couple of thousand dollars coming to me in free bets and I was hoping to use them on MLB dogs but their prices can be 15-30 cents lower than everywhere else.
These big name books are terrible at baseball, I still end up putting some action offshore. Superbook and Circa have good numbers, William Hill is decent if you haven't been overly limited there yet. MGM surprisingly wide vig considering they are the best price option in most other sports. Fan Duel and Draft Kings/Rivers are a joke, I mean really fellas -160/+132 on a baseball game? I didn't know the KBO relocated to the US. Points Bet seems to be the best vig these days on a lot of sports, but the numbers aren't always in my favor so haven't put as much action through them as I expected.

And I don't even bother looking at Fox anymore for most sports. Look at tomorrow's games, Seattle -138/+115 and SD -250/+205. What a joke of a book. Only time I ever put action through them is on a promo or the rare time they show up as a positive arb. Their promos are insulting too, they tweeted asking who doubled up on their bet for Judge getting a hit today. I was tempted, but avoided saying yeah guys, thanks for the 10 bucks you cheap pricks. I won't shed a tear when they get contracted, seems inevitable.
 
#21
Those two message boards they put in really affect the unders there now. I got unfer 10.5 live in the 2nd inning, hope we both hit.
Good to know. Yeah that homer in the 2nd didn't look wind impacted at all, but then again he crushed it. Hendricks as the Ace story ain't looking so good today, that Cubs rotation probably going to get roughed up often this season.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#23
I can't believe MLB is going to use the extra inning rule with a runner on 2nd in a real full season. Idiotic rule. If you are afraid of 18 inning games, there's a simple solution: cap the games at 12 innings and have ties. Soccer and football have ties. Are they afraid teams can't separate themselves over 162 games?
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#24
Good to know. Yeah that homer in the 2nd didn't look wind impacted at all, but then again he crushed it. Hendricks as the Ace story ain't looking so good today, that Cubs rotation probably going to get roughed up often this season.
Looking back at it, wish I hit the Pitates TT over. Fastball pitchers dominate on days like today, finesse pitchers struggle with the grip. The Cubs rotation is basically finesse.

About the winds, I look for a good crosswind from left to right now in the cold at Wrigley because of those messageboards.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#25
Bitter loss in Oakland tonight to deny Z a perfect 3-0 day.

Z bet UNDER 8.5 runs.

Houston led Oakland, 3-1, after seven innings.

Final score: Houston 8 Oakland 1.

Say it ain't so.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#26
I can't believe MLB is going to use the extra inning rule with a runner on 2nd in a real full season. Idiotic rule. If you are afraid of 18 inning games, there's a simple solution: cap the games at 12 innings and have ties. Soccer and football have ties. Are they afraid teams can't separate themselves over 162 games?

I prefer the silly extra-inning rule (start the 10th inning with a runner on second base) over the idea of tie baseball games.
 
#29
bigger distance between houston and oakland this year... oakland not as good as last year looking at pecota ratings which so far are spot on today with the lines.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#30
I like the Angels as a home dog today. I expect numerous cancellations. 35 degrees is usually the magic number. Often teams won't cancel because they have the big gate from Opening Day. That isn't happening this year.

Final score: Angels 4 White Sox 3.

Chicago doesn't figure to blow many late leads this season.

But it happened in the bottom of the eighth inning in the season opener.

Documented winner for VALUIST.
 
#31
Roxy Roxborough
Washington Nationals UNDER 84.5
Cincinnati Reds UNDER 81
Texas Rangers UNDER 67.5
Cleveland Indians UNDER 81.5
Minnesota Twins OVER 89
Toronto Blue Jays OVER 87
Twins to WIN Division +150




roxy and gil on toronto this year..... let's move over to the yankee game yesterday.... the yankee game was bet down to -175 at resorts with cole on the hill and yanks lost... I would have to agree with gil and roxy... toronto must be much better this year and yanks lost a little gas,
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#33
Looking back at it, wish I hit the Pitates TT over. Fastball pitchers dominate on days like today, finesse pitchers struggle with the grip. The Cubs rotation is basically finesse.

About the winds, I look for a good crosswind from left to right now in the cold at Wrigley because of those messageboards.
I have to think that betting Pirate TT overs in 36 degree weather is not a way to make money. I know it came in yesterday, but that is a woeful lineup.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#35
I can't believe it...after all these years and money pissed away on FA, plus a stable of pitchers in the pen....the Halos
finally found a real closer.

In other related news....Sox really miss Jimenez.
 
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#37
Mets - wash series is postponed.
Ridiculous they didn't vaccinate these guys in spring training. I know some activist would have said what about someone's grandmother not getting it first, but they could have used the whole vaccination of players and staff as a PSR to tell people to go get vaccinated. They could also point out how many of the stadium parking lots are mass vaccination sites and could pitch in money to expand it. Quite a few teams have already quietly administered doses to their players in states where its open to everyone, but I think all parties are missing out on a good PR moment here.
 
#38
These big name books are terrible at baseball, I still end up putting some action offshore. Superbook and Circa have good numbers, William Hill is decent if you haven't been overly limited there yet. MGM surprisingly wide vig considering they are the best price option in most other sports. Fan Duel and Draft Kings/Rivers are a joke, I mean really fellas -160/+132 on a baseball game? I didn't know the KBO relocated to the US. Points Bet seems to be the best vig these days on a lot of sports, but the numbers aren't always in my favor so haven't put as much action through them as I expected.

And I don't even bother looking at Fox anymore for most sports. Look at tomorrow's games, Seattle -138/+115 and SD -250/+205. What a joke of a book. Only time I ever put action through them is on a promo or the rare time they show up as a positive arb. Their promos are insulting too, they tweeted asking who doubled up on their bet for Judge getting a hit today. I was tempted, but avoided saying yeah guys, thanks for the 10 bucks you cheap pricks. I won't shed a tear when they get contracted, seems inevitable.
Thanks for replying. After looking around you were spot on. For me it looks like Superbook and Circa will be the only books getting my MLB sides action. Looks like 20 cent lines are pretty much the norm for these new books, I'm really surprised BETMGM is dealing them.
 
#40
Forgot about Wynn, still can't believe they are app only like Score. Makes no sense to me how these books can't offer a browser version of their books. So time consuming to get a bet down on apps compared to browser.
 
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