2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion
- Thread starter ZzyzxRoad
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Now that we are settled in, here's the status of the books vig today thanks to OddsBoom. Pretty clear to me Fox needs to GTFO, that's embarrassing and that FD and DK really don't want our business day to day. MGM wins the award for most disappointing book, they have 15 cent spreads on NHL for goodness sakes. WH, Super, Circa and Wynn seem to be the best for baseball. SBK not posted on here, but they haven't been so hot on MLB so far with very thin markets. Overall though its great for bettors, the effective house edge is very small as long as you are funded across the board.
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But you could miss things like the Scherzer 5 inning line at MGM which I still don't get. The situation reminds me of offshore where Bookmaker has crappy vig compared to the others but on big dogs you still get the best price at times. OddsBoom has been great, almost as useful as Don Best to me but just $9/month. I wonder if they are going to jack up the prices soon.
I gave that info for you...cause you did not know.. . by the time caesars fades to black.. I will be dead... Keep in mind they are cheaper and slower in many ways in sports betting then DK and fan duel and many new places ... NJ in the next few months will let us all know when and if these new places open up., the exchange. superbook.... the question of 5dimes's application ..
WAY-TOO-EARLY obervations so far: (all anecdotal)
1.) The Pirates are absolutely fucking horrible in every facet of the game from every on-field metric to the farm and the front office, and the Hayes injury just adds insult on top of it. I don't think the books realize yet just how truly bad they are. I'll tell you this: I'm blindly betting every opposing team's run line at ANY plus number, and any -2.5 line at +170 or better until they prove otherwise. Pirates under 58.5 (or whatever it was) looks like the stone nuts right now barring some huge injury issues in the rest of the division.
I fully expect the 119 losses by the Tigers in 2003 to be in play for this team. The 134 by the Cleveland Spiders in 1899 is probably safe though LOL.
2.) Don't sleep on the Royals. Merrifield would be a perennial MVP candidate in just about any other market, and I love the addition of Taylor, who seems like a perfect fit to roam that cavernous outfield. The rotation is serviceable, but they have to get the pen figured out. I've also been pretty underwhelmed by the rest of that division so far, and the Jimenez injury looms large for the White Sox.
3.) I mentioned earlier that I was skeptical of MLB's claim of a deadened baseball, and maybe it's just confirmation bias but I've seen nothing so far to change my mind. The 3-outcome game looks more prevalent than ever.
1.) The Pirates are absolutely fucking horrible in every facet of the game from every on-field metric to the farm and the front office, and the Hayes injury just adds insult on top of it. I don't think the books realize yet just how truly bad they are. I'll tell you this: I'm blindly betting every opposing team's run line at ANY plus number, and any -2.5 line at +170 or better until they prove otherwise. Pirates under 58.5 (or whatever it was) looks like the stone nuts right now barring some huge injury issues in the rest of the division.
I fully expect the 119 losses by the Tigers in 2003 to be in play for this team. The 134 by the Cleveland Spiders in 1899 is probably safe though LOL.
2.) Don't sleep on the Royals. Merrifield would be a perennial MVP candidate in just about any other market, and I love the addition of Taylor, who seems like a perfect fit to roam that cavernous outfield. The rotation is serviceable, but they have to get the pen figured out. I've also been pretty underwhelmed by the rest of that division so far, and the Jimenez injury looms large for the White Sox.
3.) I mentioned earlier that I was skeptical of MLB's claim of a deadened baseball, and maybe it's just confirmation bias but I've seen nothing so far to change my mind. The 3-outcome game looks more prevalent than ever.
Rockies aren't too far behind the Pirates and figure to ship off some of their players before the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see Story, Gray and maybe Marquez getting shipped off. Maybe hosting the All-Star game will keep them from a fire sale before then, but a house cleaning is coming. Hopefully the GM and all the internal staff is sent packing too. I know a lot of this mess is on ownership, but owners aren't selling.
I think they are where the Pirates are two years ago, bad team with mediocre farm system so they will be trying everyone young they can. They are probably at the bottom of the league for awhile.
I think they are where the Pirates are two years ago, bad team with mediocre farm system so they will be trying everyone young they can. They are probably at the bottom of the league for awhile.
