2021 MLB thread

Valuist

EOG Master
cardinals vs. padres starting friday for 3 games ...could decide the last WC in the national league

Interesting spot for San Diego. They had been going bad but finally won L2 games of the series in San Francisco. But at what cost? Velasquez is going today. He has been terrible this year for Philly. Look at their pen. Closer Melancon has pitched each of the last 3 days, Pagan last 2 days, and four other pitchers pitched both yesterday and Tuesday.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Interesting spot for San Diego. They had been going bad but finally won L2 games of the series in San Francisco. But at what cost? Velasquez is going today. He has been terrible this year for Philly. Look at their pen. Closer Melancon has pitched each of the last 3 days, Pagan last 2 days, and four other pitchers pitched both yesterday and Tuesday.



a closer means something in price when betting but the score of the game means more. A 7 run lead either way takes the closer right out of it. Both teams are hurting.. the cards will not see musgrove in rotation.


cards are -145 series.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Wainwright has been on an incredible roll. Here's his numbers going back 2 months, which is his last 11 starts:

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I grabbed the cards last night at -112 and felt like I was stealing. Wake up today and its hardly moved? Thought for sure this would end up in the -145 -150 range.
 

kane

EOG master
I grabbed the cards last night at -112 and felt like I was stealing. Wake up today and its hardly moved? Thought for sure this would end up in the -145 -150 range.
I agree, the pitching matchup favors the Cards bigly, I thought the game would open around 135-140, it almost feels a bit trappish to lay the small price with St Louis
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I'm surprised the line on St Louis today is around -114 to -115. Yes, Happ was terrible in his last 10 starts with the Twins but he really only has had two poor starts out of 8 with St. Louis. Meanwhile Arrieta is likely at the end of the line. He had a great run from 2014-2017 with the Cubs but since 2019 he's been awful. Here's his yearly ERAs:

2014: 2.53
2015: 1.77
2016: 3.10
2017: 3.53
2018: 3.96
2019: 4.64
2020: 5.08
2021: 7.05

And we have two teams clearly headed in opposite directions: St Louis has won 7 straight and 9 out of their last 10. San Diego has been sliding for quite a while; 10-24 in their last 34.

And the linemaker is pricing this like a tossup, giving 15 cents or so for HFA to St Louis. If you are only looking at football, you are missing out.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Is Ohtani wearing down? The pitcher Ohtani? Maybe a bit. The hitter Ohtani? Huge falloff. Here's his hitting slash lines:

thru July 31: .278 BA .369 OBP .682 SP 1.051 OPS 176 WRC+
since Aug 1: .208 BA .335 OBP .382 SP .717 OPS 93 WRC+

No Trout, Rendon, Adell or Upton and Ohtani about half the hitter he was. How does this team score?
 

ouch

EOG Veteran
If you're the Yankees, you are allowed to lose back-to-back games to Cleveland in the middle of a wildcard scramble.

You're not allowed to be crushed 11-3 and 11-1.

Let the debate begin......who's the Yankee manager in 2022? (because it's not going to be the incumbent)
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Is Ohtani wearing down? The pitcher Ohtani? Maybe a bit. The hitter Ohtani? Huge falloff. Here's his hitting slash lines:

thru July 31: .278 BA .369 OBP .682 SP 1.051 OPS 176 WRC+
since Aug 1: .208 BA .335 OBP .382 SP .717 OPS 93 WRC+

No Trout, Rendon, Adell or Upton and Ohtani about half the hitter he was. How does this team score?
Have to wonder how much of a lock aohtani is to win the MVP now. One of the VSIN talking heads suggested to buy him at 1/6 a month ago.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Have to wonder how much of a lock aohtani is to win the MVP now. One of the VSIN talking heads suggested to buy him at 1/6 a month ago.

He should win but anyone betting an MVP candidate at 1/6 odds is crazy. Vlad Jr would be a winner in most normal years.
 

kane

EOG master
I have some ohtani at 30/1...dont feel as comfortable as I did awhile back
I have him at +2500 and I agree, I felt a lot better a month ago, but considering what he's been able to do overall, between hitting and pitching, I have to think we're okay, but I'm getting a little nervous, not gonna lie
 

kane

EOG master
fan duel has ohtani at -3500


where would toronto be without vlad?
Looking up and down Toronto's lineup, they've got plenty of good hitters, of course they wouldn't be as good without him, but even if you take him out, they still have one of the best lineups in baseball, it's not like he's been carrying them all year
 
Looking up and down Toronto's lineup, they've got plenty of good hitters, of course they wouldn't be as good without him, but even if you take him out, they still have one of the best lineups in baseball, it's not like he's been carrying them all year
Funny you mention it. While WAR never seems to enter the MVP equation, it does kind of show that its not a one-man show with Vlad. Actually he's tied with Semien and just behind Ray.

 

Valuist

EOG Master
Semien now at 40 home runs.

The White Sox traded Semien and Chris Bassitt to the A's for Jeff Samardijza after the 2014 season. I'd say the A's clearly won that one.

That Teoscar guy pretty good for the Jays as well. That is one tough lineup.
 
vlad drives the drink ...those guys very good.
Media and casual fans are too reliant on the sexy home run number. Ray has been absolutely critical to them helping right the ship during some down streaks. Semien is good defensively and provides huge positional value, while Vlad is just so so defensively from a position everyone should expect offense from.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Media and casual fans are too reliant on the sexy home run number. Ray has been absolutely critical to them helping right the ship during some down streaks. Semien is good defensively and provides huge positional value, while Vlad is just so so defensively from a position everyone should expect offense from.



Vlad defense stinks. Guy hits .321 does not whiff with power. Best hitter the last 20 years. not including the cheaters
 

blueline

EOG Master
I have him at +2500 and I agree, I felt a lot better a month ago, but considering what he's been able to do overall, between hitting and pitching, I have to think we're okay, but I'm getting a little nervous, not gonna lie
Ive been paying closer attention to Toronto box scores and where they are in the playoff chase
 

kane

EOG master
Ive been paying closer attention to Toronto box scores and where they are in the playoff chase
LOL, I've been doing the same, for a while it looked like he might win the triple crown, and he still might, if that happens we could be in some trouble, especially if they make the playoffs, but he trails the RBI leader by 8, so hopefully he doesn't catch Abreu or Perez
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I bet St Louis +180 and San Francisco -108 (with Gausman starting) last night. Sure the Giants needed a break or two to get it done but what are the linemakers thinking? Are they even paying attention?

You don't need a fancy model. Just keep betting St Louis and fading San Diego. In the words of Dell Dude, it's Sofa King Obvious
 
AL Central records vs over .500 teams:

Detroit 38-33
White Sox 25-29
KC 35-44
Minn 27-47
Cleve 26-48

As much as people are concerned about the White Sox right now, I think this pattern of looking like they don't care in September because they locked things up is quite powerful. Get your slumps out of the way, don't overuse anyone, set up your rotation and bench right, look at some young guys for later, etc. Going into the postseason on a hot run is sexy, but it rarely works out. Good teams with the run differential the Sox have are the types of teams who get it done in the postseason. Even better, they are actually under their expected record which just indicates they might be better than expected. For now, definitely look to bet against the Sox but old man Larussa knows what he's doing.

The sexy hot teams like the Jays or Cards will be lucky to get any further than maybe a Wild Card win.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
For those who bet strikeout props, could be some interesting unders. Obviously, recent pitcher and opposing team hitter form come into play. I also like to see the hitter/pitcher matchups. I want to see at least 50 plate appearances. And you don't want the bulk of PAs going to 1-2 hitters. Ideally, its well spread out. Taking into account the MLB league strikeout percentage is about 25%; about 1 in 4 plate appearances end in a strikeout.

Logan Allen 48 PA 4Ks 8.3% (vs KC)
Brett Anderson 91 PA 6 ks 6.6% (vs StL)
Luis Garcia 54 PA 5 ks 9.3% (vs LAA)
Flexen 68 PA 8 ks 11.8% (vs Oak)
Irvin 53 PA 4 ks 7.5% (vs Sea)

Those who matchup well:

Buehler 168 PA 45 ks 26.8% (vs Colo)
Sale 122 PA 37 ks 30.3% (vs NYM)
 

Valuist

EOG Master
As much as people are concerned about the White Sox right now, I think this pattern of looking like they don't care in September because they locked things up is quite powerful. Get your slumps out of the way, don't overuse anyone, set up your rotation and bench right, look at some young guys for later, etc. Going into the postseason on a hot run is sexy, but it rarely works out. Good teams with the run differential the Sox have are the types of teams who get it done in the postseason. Even better, they are actually under their expected record which just indicates they might be better than expected. For now, definitely look to bet against the Sox but old man Larussa knows what he's doing.

The sexy hot teams like the Jays or Cards will be lucky to get any further than maybe a Wild Card win.

I could definitely see that. St Louis likely peaking now and over the top by playoff time. Same with Toronto. Agree on White Sox. I think they want to get their rotation right for October. And quite possibly the same with Milwaukee.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
At Wrigley tonight we have 23 MPH winds blowing in from LF. Hendricks is a smart guy. Just throw the ball over the plate. Let those RHH swing from their heels. Nobody is going yard into the teeth of a 23 MPH wind.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
At Wrigley tonight we have 23 MPH winds blowing in from LF. Hendricks is a smart guy. Just throw the ball over the plate. Let those RHH swing from their heels. Nobody is going yard into the teeth of a 23 MPH wind.
it used to be a lock, not so much anymore since they built the video boards. at least Hendricks is a smart pitcher, who throws strikes.
 
it used to be a lock, not so much anymore since they built the video boards. at least Hendricks is a smart pitcher, who throws strikes.

I know the weather makes the under tempting, but if you bet under 6.5 wow you are just asking for it. These two teams rarely play anything that resembles a 3-2 game. I know some players can't help themselves, but maybe they will actually be professionals and accept hitting a dinger is not likely tonight and just play small ball and get to 7 or 8 runs total that way. Plus whether its the scoreboards who knows, but if I look at games with 6.5 or 7 totals at Wrigley this year there have been a lot of overs.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I know the weather makes the under tempting, but if you bet under 6.5 wow you are just asking for it. These two teams rarely play anything that resembles a 3-2 game. I know some players can't help themselves, but maybe they will actually be professionals and accept hitting a dinger is not likely tonight and just play small ball and get to 7 or 8 runs total that way. Plus whether its the scoreboards who knows, but if I look at games with 6.5 or 7 totals at Wrigley this year there have been a lot of overs.
Corrrect. It's not one of those 40-degree nights, just windy.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I bet St Louis +180 and San Francisco -108 (with Gausman starting) last night. Sure the Giants needed a break or two to get it done but what are the linemakers thinking? Are they even paying attention?

You don't need a fancy model. Just keep betting St Louis and fading San Diego. In the words of Dell Dude, it's Sofa King Obvious

Once again, both come thru. And the so-called "wise guys" keep trying to fade St. Louis. Fade at your own risk. I already detailed Wainwright's form earlier in the thread. Definite pitching edge over Houser. And same with the Giants. I'll take Webb over Darvish and the better team in great form against the overrated, disappointing choking team.

I see Bassitt is back for the first time since taking a line drive to the face and having facial surgery. I would be hesitant to bet Oakland considering that and the state of their bullpen recently.
 
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