"Washington +175 over N.Y. METS
7:10 PM EST. Paolo Espino (RHP - WAS) has a 9.42 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in August, with a 5.16 xERA. Meanwhile, the Mets have a .636 OPS in August, second-worst in all of the league. When these two forces of terrible baseball collide, it might cause a break in the space-time continuum. Look, we don’t care if Paolo Espino had an ERA of 20.00. He is not our target here. The New York Mets with Rich Hill on the mound cannot be favored like it’s 1971 and Hill is Tom Seaver.
Coincidence or not (not), Rich Hill (LHP - NYM) has been a mess since the crackdown on sticky substances began (5.25 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over 13 games started since June 12th), with skills to match (5.15 xERA in June, 5.61 in July, 6.12 in August), and the Nationals have remained a dangerous offense even after the trade deadline, posting a .760 OPS in August. The Nats have also been the second best offense in the entire league against southpaws. It’s really tempting to play Washington -1½ +250, but the price here is so absurd and so good that we must play it. At worst, this is a 50/50 proposition."
MIAMI -1½ +244 over Cincinnati
7:10 PM EST. Still one of the most undervalued teams in the biz, Miami offers up great value here after snapping a 9-game losing streak with consecutive wins over the Nationals. They’ll go for three in a row here but more importantly, they are a young and very talented team that just got a booster shot of confidence.
Zach Thompson (RHP - MIA) seemed like a desperation call-up after a series of injuries decimated the Miami rotation. He was working long relief in Triple-A, and had only built up to a max of 3 IP at the time—but he has surprisingly turned into one of their best starters. Low hit and HR/F rates and a high strand rate have helped though, leaving his xERA more than a run-and-a-half higher, and suggesting his skill level is more that of a back-end starter. That said, there has still been some skill growth here worth noting. He's striking out more batters than ever, and his above-average swing & miss rate suggests there's even potentially room for a little more, with his curveball (20.9% usage, 15.9% swing and miss) and change-up (10.9% usage, 21.2% swing & miss) leading the way. Give us a pitcher with good off-speed stuff and we’ll gladly take our chances.
Meanwhile, Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) is sweet fade material because his surface numbers are so good (2.88 ERA). Miley’s hard hit % last game was 42%. That’s the highest we recall seeing this year. He throws 88 MPH on his best day. He’s very simply another pitcher whose second-half performance (2.57 ERA over 9 games) is diverging from his skills (4.75 xERA). Wade Miley is the epitome of getting it done through smoke and mirrors. He just faced the Marlins when Miami was in a bad way and struggled (4.2 IP, 3 BB, 3 K). Miami is not in a bad way anymore.