2023 MLB

Valuist

EOG Master
The SF Giants had great one run records during their WS runs (2010,12,14), I remember the announcers saying they were a one run miracle team.

The 2016 Rangers have the modern-day record for best % at 36-11 (76.6%). Marlins are currently @ 78.3%, teams almost always regress from such lofty heights.

I remember that team had a real bad overall net runs that year. But their 1-3 starters were good and back end of bullpen was good. Their 4th and 5th starters were real bad, so they'd win 5-4, then lose games 12-4.
 

kane

EOG master
Is Votto coming back viewed as a negative at this point? Chemistry with the young players is great now.
So ironic you posted this as I was just about to post my thoughts. I'm in a situation that before the season neither the Reds or me expected to be in, JV is my favorite player, before the season I was looking forward to his return, but now I don't know, the kids are playing great, they could have something special going on, and let's be honest, JV is a 39 year old coming off injury, and playing him every day is taking AB's away from a younger player, Spencer Steer is having a terrific rookie season, he moved to first base when Elly was called up, I see they're playing him in left field tonight to keep his bat in the lineup, but what if Votto struggles, which all things considered is to be expected, the next few weeks will be his spring training, if their record right now was what it was expected to be, then you play Votto, because who cares, but now it has to be about winning, and they could be messing up something good, I don't envy David Bell, he's in a tough spot, the best scenario is Votto plays well and hits right from the start, then no issues, but if he's hitting .210 in a few weeks as he's getting adjusted, that's hurting the team, I can envision an infield of Steer, India, McLain, and Elly, that's a whole lot of young and cheap talent, but Votto might mess things up, of course there have been discussions among the coaches and front office regarding the "Votto situation", and Votto isn't dumb, he can see what's happening, he sees the youth movement, he knows how well the kids have been playing, for as much as it pains me to say this, I think the best thing might be for Votto to stay healthy, prove he still has something left in his tank, and then get moved at the deadline. I don't know what the Reds or Votto are thinking, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Some of those kids will regress when they face teams for the second time. I did play Cinn and Cubs each +750 last week.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Votto went deep in his first game back….

Yes he did. Blended right in.

So De La Cruz looked sensational in his first 2-3 games and with the Reds on a 9 game win streak, he must be carrying them, right? Not really. He has over 50 plate appearances now. 4 extra base hits; 2 doubles 1 triple and 1 HR. He hasn't been bad, but the strikeout rate has been over 30 pct. If one has a RoY ticket on Carroll of Arizona, I think you're safe.. Carroll on pace for a 30 HR/30 steal season batting over .300 and slugging nearly .600. As for the division, is St. Louis completely dead? I don't think so. Yes, Marmol probably should be fired due to the poor execution, the handling of O'Neil and then Contreras. Their pitching has been awful. But would anyone be shocked if Flaherty/Montgomery/Mikolas/Wainwright were at least average the rest of the way? And the Cubs should definitely NOT trade Bellinger and Stroman. They are the most balanced team in the division, and with the hole St. Louis has dug themselves into, they definitely are capable of winning the division.
 

kane

EOG master
If one has a RoY ticket on Carroll of Arizona, I think you're safe
I agree, I believe he was the favorite to start the season and has played as expected, I made a future on Jordan Walker +1000, he makes the club to start the season, plays well, but for some reason gets sent down, they called him back up and still a long way to go, but had he not gotten sent down for a month the race might be closer
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Yes he did. Blended right in.

So De La Cruz looked sensational in his first 2-3 games and with the Reds on a 9 game win streak, he must be carrying them, right? Not really. He has over 50 plate appearances now. 4 extra base hits; 2 doubles 1 triple and 1 HR. He hasn't been bad, but the strikeout rate has been over 30 pct. If one has a RoY ticket on Carroll of Arizona, I think you're safe.. Carroll on pace for a 30 HR/30 steal season batting over .300 and slugging nearly .600. As for the division, is St. Louis completely dead? I don't think so. Yes, Marmol probably should be fired due to the poor execution, the handling of O'Neil and then Contreras. Their pitching has been awful. But would anyone be shocked if Flaherty/Montgomery/Mikolas/Wainwright were at least average the rest of the way? And the Cubs should definitely NOT trade Bellinger and Stroman. They are the most balanced team in the division, and with the hole St. Louis has dug themselves into, they definitely are capable of winning the division.
De La Cruz is a lot like Christopher Morel at the plate. Obviously he’s better defensively than CM.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I agree, I believe he was the favorite to start the season and has played as expected, I made a future on Jordan Walker +1000, he makes the club to start the season, plays well, but for some reason gets sent down, they called him back up and still a long way to go, but had he not gotten sent down for a month the race might be closer

I still think one can't count out St Louis. And with Walker hitting, Gorman a monster and oh yeah, 2 HoF corner infielders, they can still take it.

Milwaukee +115 to win the division? Bad odds. They seem one paced to me.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Ten in a row for you guys holding Cincy tickets to win the pathetic NL Central….remember Poster JavyBaez touting that division a few years back and making fun of the NL East…times do change
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Ten in a row for you guys holding Cincy tickets to win the pathetic NL Central….remember Poster JavyBaez touting that division a few years back and making fun of the NL East…times do change

The NL East isn't bullet proof. Two of the more disappointing teams are the Metroplitans and the Phillies.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
The NL East isn't bullet proof. Two of the more disappointing teams are the Metroplitans and the Phillies.

Phillies are far from disappointing…injuries hit them hard at the start….they have won 11 of 13 the past couple weeks…they need a fifth starter….
 

kane

EOG master
America's team rallies from an early deficit to defeat the Rockies 5-3 to run their win streak to 11, I feel like I'm dreaming
 

Heim

EOG Master
Sorry don't see the market hype on Luis Castillo. The openers are nuts. I don't think he's been a dog all year.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Saturday Cubs -Cards London game is PK (Steele/Wainwright), total of 14.5. Let’s see how the total moves. The fences are moved back 20 feet, but the last games there were 17-13 and 12-8. Cub announcers were talking about the wind pushing everything out to CF yesterday.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa only puts up the divisional YES/NO odds in the morning. Today the Reds are YES +375, NO -485.

FWIW, WH has Reds +400. Reds are now the 2nd favorite to the Brewers.

FWIW, the Reds to win the NL Central odds are down to: YES +285, NO -360 @ Circa.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
FWIW, the Reds to win the NL Central odds are down to: YES +285, NO -360 @ Circa.

I'm curious about a Cubs/Cardinals exacta box for the division. Price should be decent. Under 3/1 is taking the worst of it with the Reds. And I saw the Brewers recently around 11/10. A terrible price, IMO.
 

Heim

EOG Master
How much longer can Royals afford to go with Grienke and Lyles? Grienke has been brutal on the road this year, and Lyles gets lost with men on base. Any decent call up has to be better.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
How much longer can Royals afford to go with Grienke and Lyles? Grienke has been brutal on the road this year, and Lyles gets lost with men on base. Any decent call up has to be better.

Tanking doesn't work so well in MLB.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
DelaCruz just hit for the cycle.

Greg Amsinger on MLB Network is dumber than a box of rocks. "The White Sox have a better shot at winning their division than the Red Sox!" he exclaimed. No f-ing kidding. One division is great one is crap. And he just figured that out now?
 

Valuist

EOG Master
UK game total down from 14 to 13.5. But the right move? Runs aren't only about home runs. Wainwright has given up 60 hits in 42 innings this year. There's a race to the bat rack when he pitches
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
UK game total down from 14 to 13.5. But the right move? Runs aren't only about home runs. Wainwright has given up 60 hits in 42 innings this year. There's a race to the bat rack when he pitches
Watching the game on the British feed (BT Sport), they have mentioned a few times about the lack of foul territory also.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Watching the game on the British feed (BT Sport), they have mentioned a few times about the lack of foul territory also.

Smoltz mentioned that on the Fox broadcast as well.

Hamari behind home plate. This is why one can't go back to far in ump stats. He actually was 12 overs 17 unders in 2021. 15-15 last year. This year he's 9-4 overs and watching the game he has really squeezed Wainwright on a number of pitches.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
I'm curious about a Cubs/Cardinals exacta box for the division. Price should be decent. Under 3/1 is taking the worst of it with the Reds. And I saw the Brewers recently around 11/10. A terrible price, IMO.

I don't know of any book that has such bets. Using current lines to win the Division and estimated odds for 2nd place, I'd say the true odds for the Cubs/Cards exacta box are roughly around 20/1.
 
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