CFL Canadian

Dunkel must not have watch last weeks Ticat game if he thinks they win by 13.5 with Evans at QB.
I guess his lines & picks are purely number based or mathematical rather than subjective & don't take key injuries into consideration. Even with a healthy Masoli at QB for the Ticats 13.5 seems like way too many points on the road at the Rough Riders, if Hamilton should even be favored. A couple guys on Covers who set & post their own lines before the books both made this game Saskatchewan -4. On Monday at Pinnacle it was -2.5 -105 & now has moved to -3 -112.
FWIW sherwood's pick, writeup & opinions re game 2 of tonight's doubleheader (btw he's on Toronto +14.5 for the first game):

Hamilton +140 over SASKATCHEWAN

9:30 PM EST. This is another great value bet. Saskatchewan is coming off back-to-back wins by a combined score of 83-43 while the Tigercats lost its starting QB and are forced to use backup and little known Dane Evans. We’ll get back to Evans in a minute. For now, this is what we call an overreaction and we’re all over it.

You see, Saskatchewan’s last two wins were both over the Lions and a team can get into a lot of bad habits playing that bunch of rancid losers. The last time the Riders played anything resembling a football team, they were buried, 37-10 by Calgary and Calgary isn’t even that good. Saskatchewan’s three wins this year have come against B.C. twice and Toronto once. That pair is 1-11 and they have one win combined only because they played each other and somebody had to win. In fact, B.C./Toronto almost ended in a tie (18-17 final). Now Saskatchewan is favored over the best team in the Canadian Football League because Masoli is out? We have news for you and that news is the Saskatchewan’s QB, Cody Fajardo is awful and we would take Hamilton’s backup over Farjado 100% of the time. Saskatchewan favored here is actually insulting to Hamilton, which should only increase their motivation level.

If you don’t think the Tigercats are being disrespected here, think again. They’re 5-1 and they’re an underdog to a team that has beaten nothing but pure garbage this year. No question that Hamilton will take that personally and they’re also very likely to respond to their starting QB getting injured. Teams often rally hard after such an injury and we’ll trust the Ticats to do precisely that. The Ticats are seriously a level or three above every team in the CFL. They’re aggressive, talented, opportunistic and defensively punitive.

Now back to Dane Evans. He played college football for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and was also a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. Evans passed for 3,102 yards as a sophomore in 2014. In 2015, he completed 305 of 485 passes for 4,332 yards and 25 touchdowns and ranked eighth among NCAA Division I FBS quarterbacks in passing yardage. As a senior, he passed for 3,348 yards and 32 touchdowns. This kid can throw a football and also has the perfect mindset to a be a leader out there. He takes control of everything, does not look scared, intimidated or not confident. He looks, plays and believes that he’s going to drive the team down field for a TD every time he gets out there. His football IQ is evident and so is his leadership abilities. Dane Evans was tearing it up for Hamilton in the preseason and really wasn’t expecting to play last week before he got thrown into the fire. Look, we’ve seen great QB’s struggle the first few times they have played in this league because it’s just a different league. However, Dane Evans probably spent 10 hours a day practicing for this start and another six hours a day watching film. He has a Peyton Manning attitude and he’s now going to start for the superior team here. Hamilton outright.
Someone remarked:

"Masoli, Banks and Lawrence are all OUT for this game. That's Hamiltons 3 best players. On the road, after coming off a bye week and huge game against the 'best' team in the league last week. "


EOG Dedicated
Take Sask 2nd half at what should be close to a pick em. Zero offensive flow and playmaking ability from this TiCats offense. Not having Banks out there is killer
Sherwood's comments on today's CFL game:


MONTREAL -7 -101 over Ottawa

Pinnacle -7 -101 BET365 -7 -105 SportsInteraction -7 -105 5DIMES -7 -105 888Sport -7 -102

Posted at 12:45 PM EST

7:00 PM EST. Earlier in the week, we recommended a bet on Ottawa +7½ with the intention of buying it back. We had anticipated a sharp drop in the opening number but that has not materialized. Instead, the number has dropped a half point and we do not want to get caught holding a ticket on the Redblacks so we’re going to recommend buying it back.

Ottawa gets Dominique Davis back as their starting quarterback now that he’s healed from a lower body injury and that’s a massive upgrade from Jonathon Jennings, who started against Winnipeg in Week 6 and Calgary during Week 7. For his first outing Jennings completed 6-of-15 passes for 45 yards and one interception which was returned for a touchdown in a 31-1 defeat. Versus the Stampeders, Jennings threw for 125 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 17-16 defeat.

Before he was injured, Davis had completed 66% of his passes for 1,132 yards with three majors versus seven interceptions plus 15 carries for 76 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Davis was injured against Montreal back in Ottawa and in that game, Montreal was in the process of blowing out the Redblacks. The final score was 36-19 in favor of Montreal and that game was in Ottawa.

We have a hard time trusting Ottawa to cover this game. Yeah, its stock is low but the Redblacks may be getting too much credit here because of the return of Davis. Fact is, Ottawa has been outgained by 272 and 242 yards the past two games and have outgained overall in five straight. Another reason that the Redblacks are getting too much credit here is because they lost by just one point to Calgary last week but do not be fooled. In terms of misleading scores, you will not find one more misleading than Calgary’s 17-16 victory last week. If you bet Ottawa, thank your lucky stars, as Calgary kicked five field goals, out-gained Ottawa by close to 300 yards, had 27 first downs to Ottawa’s 13 and won the time of possession battle 38 minutes to 22 minutes. If one just read the boxscore without seeing the final score, one would think that Calgary won by 40 points.

The Als might just be legit. They just beat Hamilton and Edmonton and have now won three in a row. It’s worth mentioning that Montreal has been fodder for CFL teams for years and now that they’re playing as good as anyone in the league, we can assure you that beating up on the teams that have been beating up on them for years must feel great. The Als are hungry as can be after starving for years and to top it all off, the Als have been off for two weeks while Ottawa’s exhausted defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone. Hold a gun to our head and we’re betting Montreal -7. We’ve instead chose to come off this game because we’re not sure of Montreal is ready to be spotting a significant margin yet. This is an Als’ squad that is used to being in the role of the underdog and not the role of being expected to win. We prefer to sit this one and hope that Montreal wins by exactly 7, thus allowing us to cash one ticket and push on the other."

[end of sherwood quote]
" Vernon Adams Jr. can join the names of Jonathan Crompton, Tracy Ham, and Anthony Calvillo if he and the Alouettes win this week. They’re the only quarterbacks since 1985 who’ve led the Als to four straight wins."

"...Ottawa REDBLACKS kicker Lewis Ward is still Mr. Automatic, having made 64 consecutive field goals."


EOG Master
These teams played 3 weeks a go and Ottawa was -9

Ottawa gets the starting QB back this week and there is a 15.5 pt swing in the line

I think the value is with Ottawa +6.5
"CALGARY – The Battle of Alberta is always a fierce matchup and the 2019 edition brings plenty of intrigue as the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Eskimos get set to duke it out at McMahon Stadium on Saturday night."

"A share of first place in the West Division is on the line after the Winnipeg Blue Bombers were stunned by the Toronto Argonauts on Thursday night. The winner of Saturday’s game will improve to 5-2 and on the season, tied with the Bombers for western supremacy."

"...Trevor Harris will get his first taste of the Battle of Alberta – and history is not on his side. The Green and Gold haven’t won at McMahon Stadium since 2015. Moreover, Harris is 0-6-2 in his career against the Stampeders, including a loss in last year’s Grey Cup."
Week 9 of 21, my early thoughts on ATS game lines:

Calgary @ Winnipeg (Thursday, Aug.8): Winnipeg - 2 to -4

Saskatchewan @ Montreal (Friday, Aug.9): Montreal +2 to -2

Ottawa @ Edmonton (Friday, Aug.9), Edmonton -7 or -8

BC @ Hamilton (Saturday, Aug.10), Hamilton -9 to -11
Sherwood tweeted:

"CFL lines are out
Calgary + 8.5
BC + 13.5

Both lines are extremely flawed
Great opportunity for a middle or just to leave it"
Wpg has dropped a point from -8.5 to -7.5. The ML hasn't changed much since Monday, from -328 to -319.

Sask has risen from -2 -108 to -3 +100. The total dropped 3 points from 53 to 50 before going back up to 50.5.

Edmonton went from -9 to -8 & then -8.5. Total from 49 to 48.

Hamilton has declined from -13.5 to -10.5. And 52 to 51. The Pinnacle ML was at -583 before getting pounded down to -487 with action on BC ML.
Sherwood is 11-12 on the year in CFL & hasn't had a winning CFL season since 2014. FWIW following are his comments on the Calgary @ Winnipeg game:

"Thursday, 8:30 PM EST. When this line originally came out, we urged you to take Calgary +8½ (and B.C. +13½) and while B.C. has now dropped to 10½, Calgary is still very playable at +7½. Frankly, the number itself is way out of whack and probably should be closer to a pick ‘em than to +7½. Every single player and coach in every league is very aware of the point-spread. We mention that because the price here is locker room material for the Stampeders, as they are being hugely disrespected. It has to be motivating and by the way, Calgary is the better team to begin with, even with Bo Levi Mitchell on the sidelines (maybe).

Against the 0-6 Argos last week and with a 20-0 lead, Winnipeg lost outright. Two weeks prior against the same Argos outfit, Winnipeg won 48-21 but that score was extremely misleading with Toronto actually outgaining the Bombers by 25 yards in Winnipeg. Had Toronto not gifted Winnipeg 14 points and then turn it over on the Winnipeg one-yard line, that outcome could’ve been much different. In two games against a team that was winless and that has looked sloppy, unorganized and talentless, Winnipeg was outgained not once but twice by the Boatmen. In another win against Edmonton, Winnipeg was once again extremely lucky in a 28-21 win. They were outgained by 162 yards in that one.

Winnipeg is now 5-2. Its five wins came against Ottawa twice, Edmonton once, B.C. once and Toronto once. The deserving wins were against Ottawa twice. We’ll reiterate that the Bombers résumé consists of outplaying Ottawa twice. Winnipeg could easily be 2-5 and not 5-2. The Bombers lost to Hamilton when Jeremiah Masoli went down early in the first quarter and they also lost to Toronto. They have zero quality wins this season and now they’re a 7½-point choice against this quality outfit that looks better with each passing week?

Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols would be the third string QB if he played for Calgary. He should be the second string QB for Winnipeg. He would also be the second string QB if he played for every other team in the CFL not named Toronto but clueless coach Mike O’Shea will stick with him because O’Shea should be coaching lacrosse or curling.

Calgary is also 5-2 but two of its wins were against Saskatchewan and Edmonton and when the Stamps played Hamilton (with Jermiah Masoli), they lost 30-23 but the game was tied late in the 4th and Calgary outgained the ‘Cats by 140 yards. Furthermore, Calgary’s defense, its weak spot for the first few games, is gaining steam and has looked very good the past couple of weeks. Finally, Bo Levi Mitchell is a distinct possibility this week. Mitchell went through an entire session with the Stampeders on Tuesday for the first time in a long time.

“Arm felt great. Overall felt really good. They’re kind of having to temper me down, make sure I don’t overdue it. I’m ready to let it rip. If I’m in the lineup,” Mitchell said, I expect to be the guy on the field.”

We don’t care if it’s Mitchell or Arbuckle. We care about value and we’ll reiterate that this is one of the worst CFL lines that we have seen in a very long time. Take the points and absolutely put Calgary in some money line parlays (+270) If Bo Levi Mitchell is announced as the starter, this line will drop another 2 to 4 points. Biggest overlay of the year so let’s hope variance doesn’t work against us and we get paid for oddsmakers posting a terrible number."
Sherwood on tonight's Eskimos-Redblacks game, which is the second of a double header, & actually starts at 10 PM EST:

"Ottawa @ EDMONTON
EDMONTON -10˝ -106 over Ottawa

Pinnacle - 10½ -106 SportsInteraction -10½ -110 5DIMES -10½ -110 888Sport -10½ -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

7:00 PM EST. As a 7-point dog last week against Montreal, Ottawa won outright. It was also the week that the Redblacks first-string QB Dominique Davis returned from an injury. After scoring 14, 19, 1, 16 points respectively in Davis’ absence and losing all four games, Ottawa put up 30 points last week. It’s all fool’s gold my friends. Davis through for 164 lousy yards and was picked off twice. He looked lost out there. The Redblacks won because their punt return team set them up in great field position the entire night with 382 total yards on punt return yards. The Redblacks also won because Montreal’s first string QB, Vernon Adams was knocked out of the game. Ottawa did not look any better last week than they looked the previous four weeks when they were getting destroyed. The Redblacks have been outgained now in six straight weeks and it’s getting worse instead of better. They have been outgained by over 500 yards the past three weeks.

Edmonton lost last week to Calgary last week 24-18. Edmonton had more first downs, 157 more yards and held a time of possession edge too. Statistically, the Eskimos are the CFL’s best team and it’s not even close. They dominate opponents weekly and in fact, they have outgained their opponents by some sick and crooked numbers each and every game except one. Edmonton has outgained their opponents by 283, 214, 162, 143, 257 and 157 yards respectively in six of its seven games this season. It gets even better.

Eskimos franchise quarterback Trevor Harris has been eyeing his first game against the Redblacks ever since the verbal agreement on an extension fell apart and the sides went their separate ways. Harris leads the CFL in passing yards while Ottawa ranks last in the CFL for passing yards against per game. Harris may not have publicly said so but we guarantee this is a game he wants to stick it to the opposition. Furthermore, the Eskimos get some key bodies back. Strong-side linebacker Don Unamba and defensive back Anthony Orange are both ready to go after stints on the six-game injured list. Unamba had a breakout season in 2018, named a CFL all-star for his strong play and Edmonton went after the talented defender in free agency. Orange was a CFL all-star last season too, thusEdmonton sees two high calibre players come back to help a defence that’s allowed the fewest points in the CFL. The strong gets stronger and the highly motivated QB gets to do his talking with his performance. This one shouldn’t be close and we get the Eskimos at a bagain price."
I've been victimized by 3 kick return TDs and a fumbled punt the last 2 nights. Slow white Canadians cannot catch Afro American kick returners. Just venting.


EOG Dedicated
Riders game cut early due to storm. Riders win 17-10. All bets no action? I might benefit as I had a prop that wasn't going to cash it seemed...
"Saturday, August 10
B.C. at Hamilton, 7 p.m. EST

Dunk: The Lions need it badly. LIONS
Hodge: Dane Evans gets a W. TICATS
Alfieri: B.C. has to win another game at some point, right? LIONS
Ballantine: B.C. is reeling. Hamilton defence good enough to win. TICATS
Filoso: Upset of the week. LIONS
Gasson: B.C. stinks and going east. TICATS
Smith: Closer game that it would be if Hamilton was healthy, but they pull out the win at home. TICATS"
The Ticats are down to -10 -109 @ Pinnacle. SBR is reporting a -9.5 -106 at Heritage & -10 +100 with SIA. From an opening -14 +100 on Monday.

Favs have, for the most part, not been covering ATS this week & last. ATS dogs are 5-1 during that period.
The Ticats are down to -10 -109 @ Pinnacle. SBR is reporting a -9.5 -106 at Heritage & -10 +100 with SIA. From an opening -14 +100 on Monday.

Favs have, for the most part, not been covering ATS this week & last. ATS dogs are 5-1 during that period.
The books took a beating for that opening -14 line on Hamilton. Though they got lucky on the ML with a very fortunate last minute Ticat win SU. BC keeps finding ways to lose in the latter 4th quarters when up by double digits, in this case by 15 points. Dogs go to 6-1 ATS the last 2 weeks, while favs went 3-0 SU this week & 1-3 SU last week (the unfinished Roughriders-Alouettes game not included & considered cancelled).
CFL week 10 of 21 Pinnacle lines as of around 11 to 11:40 AM PST this Monday morning, August 12:

BC +11.5 -106/-108 @ Winnipeg (Thursday, August 15, 530 PM PST), over 51 -108/-108

Edmonton -10 -106/-108 @ Toronto (Friday, August 16, 430 PM), over 49 -112/-104

Hamilton -4 -108/-106 @ Ottawa (Saturday, August 17, 100 PM), over 52.5 -107/-109

Montreal +7 -110/-104 @ Calgary (Saturday, August 17, 400 PM) over 52 -108/-108

There has since been a big move in the Ticat total down to 49.5.
At some point, I have to think we've got to see more consistent offensive play and totals being eclipsed. Ugly games this far at the almost halfway point...
Line was down to -Edmonton 7 @ Pinnacle this morning:

Friday, Aug. 16

Edmonton Eskimos (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -10
Total: 50

Game Overview

After failing to cover against Ottawa, the Eskimos are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The total stayed UNDER 49 points in Friday’s win and it has stayed UNDER in their last six games. Edmonton is 1-3 ATS in four previous road games this season. CJ Gable was the difference on Friday night with 116 yards rushing and a pair of scores on 18 rushing attempts. Trevor Harris completed 33-of-40 passing attempts for 327 yards, but he could not get Edmonton into the end zone through the air. He leads the CFL in total passing yards with 2,631 in eight games.

Toronto is coming off a bye after posting its first win of the season the week before against Winnipeg. The Argonauts stunned the Blue Bombers 28-27 as heavy 15-point home underdogs. They have covered in three of their last five games with the total staying UNDER in four of the seven games played. Toronto has closed as a double-digit underdog in five of its last six games. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson has taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback and he has tossed 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

Betting Trends

-- Edmonton won the first meeting this season 26-0 as an 11-point home favorite. This was its sixth SU win against Toronto in the last eight meetings. The total stayed UNDER 52 points in that game, but it has gone OVER in 10 of the last 14 games in this inter-division tilt.
Doubleheader going today @ 1 & 4 PM PST.

"2009 — The last time the Alouettes won a game in Calgary, they were in the 2009 Grey Cup against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. In July of that same year, they earned their last victory over the Stamps. Montreal has lost nine straight games at McMahon Stadium since.

4 — Calgary is pushing a four-game home winning streak Saturday. Since Sept. 2012, they’ve only lost at home nine times."