Chasing steam/bad number question

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#1
Won't be around until later tonight (AC). Talking to a guy who claims he is successful. What he does is he plays alot of hot sides who are dogs but only where the opening number has a half point hung. An example would be team x opens at +8.5 and is bet down to +8

He takes the bad number at +8 but the reasoning is he only loses out if the game falls 8 but then he pushes and the originator wins. All other results would be same as originator.

On the sides that do not move more than the 1/2 point he buys points on other side and would have a lay 7 take 8 side going. All games that move more than the 1/2 he holds and beats the closing number and again the only way he and the originator differ is if the origintor wins and he pushes...

Lifetime loser?
 
#3
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Won't be around until later tonight (AC). Talking to a guy who claims he is successful. What he does is he plays alot of hot sides who are dogs but only where the opening number has a half point hung. An example would be team x opens at +8.5 and is bet down to +8

He takes the bad number at +8 but the reasoning is he only loses out if the game falls 8 but then he pushes and the originator wins. All other results would be same as originator.

On the sides that do not move more than the 1/2 point he buys points on other side and would have a lay 7 take 8 side going. All games that move more than the 1/2 he holds and beats the closing number and again the only way he and the originator differ is if the origintor wins and he pushes...

Lifetime loser?[/QUOTE

Problem is that hot sides move more than a half a point...he wouldn't have the time to get the side less the half point....
 

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
#6
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Won't be around until later tonight (AC). Talking to a guy who claims he is successful. What he does is he plays alot of hot sides who are dogs but only where the opening number has a half point hung. An example would be team x opens at +8.5 and is bet down to +8

He takes the bad number at +8 but the reasoning is he only loses out if the game falls 8 but then he pushes and the originator wins. All other results would be same as originator.

On the sides that do not move more than the 1/2 point he buys points on other side and would have a lay 7 take 8 side going. All games that move more than the 1/2 he holds and beats the closing number and again the only way he and the originator differ is if the origintor wins and he pushes...

Lifetime loser?
Long term loser vs -110.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Thanks for the responses men. I agree

Let me rephrase it now....suppose the last 10 years you were able to play all BW dogs at a 1/2 point worse than BW in that the same scenario. BW takes +4.5 you take +4 etc. BUT not the games where BW takes +3 and you would have to take +2.5 ....still a loser?
 

$tinky

EOG Senior Member
#8
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Thanks for the responses men. I agree

Let me rephrase it now....suppose the last 10 years you were able to play all BW dogs at a 1/2 point worse than BW in that the same scenario. BW takes +4.5 you take +4 etc. BUT not the games where BW takes +3 and you would have to take +2.5 ....still a loser?

I can show you hundreds of broke dicks that have done exactly this. Losing proposition. Folks don't understand that you can bet billy walters teams all day long and it don't mean shit unless u bet his teams at his numbers. and yes if he lays 10 and you lay 15 this is a long term loser as well. a cent can mean the difference in being a good winner and a good loser over a years worth of time. bookies drive expensive cars because people just don't get or believe this.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#9
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

I can show you hundreds of broke dicks that have done exactly this. Losing proposition. Folks don't understand that you can bet billy walters teams all day long and it don't mean shit unless u bet his teams at his numbers. and yes if he lays 10 and you lay 15 this is a long term loser as well. a cent can mean the difference in being a good winner and a good loser over a years worth of time. bookies drive expensive cars because people just don't get or believe this.
totally agree.

But let me just confirm...if BW played 1000 games at +4.5 and you played the same 1000 games at +4 all at -110 (this is fictional guys) you are saying enough games land on 4 where he wins and you push and thats still the difference...agree?
 
#10
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

anytime you see a play at Pinny when the juice is higher then 11o, I would suggest uusing the dropdown box and sale a point th other way. So if you see a +8.5 -117, instead lay -7 -118, so you are dropping down and you sale 1.5 pts, because most the time the game will close 9 or 9.5 or atleast touch those numbers.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#11
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

totally agree.

But let me just confirm...if BW played 1000 games at +4.5 and you played the same 1000 games at +4 all at -110 (this is fictional guys) you are saying enough games land on 4 where he wins and you push and thats still the difference...agree?
yea losing 1/2 point over 1000 games is super significant...that can easily be the difference between up some units or even. or even vs down...
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#12
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

anytime you see a play at Pinny when the juice is higher then 11o, I would suggest uusing the dropdown box and sale a point th other way. So if you see a +8.5 -117, instead lay -7 -118, so you are dropping down and you sale 1.5 pts, because most the time the game will close 9 or 9.5 or atleast touch those numbers.
say what? -7 -118?? u mean -7 -140??
 
#13
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Pushing a game that BW wins is the same dollar effect as losing when BW pushes. It doesn't "feel" like a loss that day because you pushed. But, if I understand the question correctly, you are still one unit behind BW.

There are numbers guys around these sites that can tell you the value of a half point in baskets and while it varies slightly depending on the spread, it is very significant.

Point is though, value is value and it matters not whether it is an even number or a .5 line.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#14
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

totally agree.

But let me just confirm...if BW played 1000 games at +4.5 and you played the same 1000 games at +4 all at -110 (this is fictional guys) you are saying enough games land on 4 where he wins and you push and thats still the difference...agree?
Barely. Assuming the games all close 4..... at -110 he gains @ .12% edge.
If you're talking about 1,2,5,9 etc.....the .5's not enough at -110 to give him +EV.
 
#15
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Barely. Assuming the games all close 4..... at -110 he gains @ .12% edge.
If you're talking about 1,2,5,9 etc.....the .5's not enough at -110 to give him +EV.
2W2P2S,

if 1/2 a point is worth 12 cents why do most books only charge 10 Cents?
Also how many 1/2 points should a bettor buy if he has a 2 cent advantage? Is it .5, 1, 1.5 etc? If you are correct I would assume he should buy as many points as they allow.
 
#16
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Back in the day(before the internet) we had Chuck Sharpe opened up our NBA basketball....he would bet the sides for 10 dimes and the totals for 3 dimes....this was at 8AM....

We usually moved the totals around 3-5 points off his numbers right away...the sides from 2-3 points...

At the end of the week Chuck always collected and maybe had one or two losing weeks....his followers which were legendary never had winning weeks....when we opened our numbers after Chuck played, his followers were playing the exact games with way the worst of it...
 
#17
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

say what? -7 -118?? u mean -7 -140??
the best way would to actually handicap the game your self, or learn how to. But if your that lazy or stupid and try to fade or follow. I would say instead of playing at a slow book, CONSIDER to fade the move at Pinny by using the drop down box for a 1.5 points. Get it?
 

$tinky

EOG Senior Member
#18
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

totally agree.

But let me just confirm...if BW played 1000 games at +4.5 and you played the same 1000 games at +4 all at -110 (this is fictional guys) you are saying enough games land on 4 where he wins and you push and thats still the difference...agree?
I'm not expert on sample sizes and all that stuff but "over time " yes its a winner at +4.5 and a loser +4 (i know the game pushes but see what befeege said) imo laying more juice than him is even worse.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#19
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

2W2P2S,

if 1/2 a point is worth 12 cents why do most books only charge 10 Cents?
Also how many 1/2 points should a bettor buy if he has a 2 cent advantage? Is it .5, 1, 1.5 etc? If you are correct I would assume he should buy as many points as they allow.
Let me break it down better to address all this and Ray. My answer was specifically addressing the NFL "4" vs the "4.5" both at -110. This is what Ray was asking.

To calculate the worth of the 1/2 point(s), you have to know the push rate of the number(s) involved. For the 4, I used 2.5% (Comptrbob, Irish Tim, OSU may have something slightly different and going to change their answer). Theoretically then, if the game closes 4 BW has a 52.50% chance of winning his wager which is .12% > than the 52.38% breakeven of -110. He theoretically wins, his follower theoretically loses. If the follower spends 10 cents and buys up to +4.5 -120, theoretically he also loses as 52.5%< 54.55%.

Answering Ray's original question properly would be "it depends". And what it depends on is the specific numbers and the price he's paying on/off those numbers.

Now, the counter argument would be that BW isn't a coin flipper, and the baseline for his intent wager is > than 50% changing the math of the advantage gained by chasing a 1/2 point.
 
#20
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Let me break it down better to address all this and Ray. My answer was specifically addressing the NFL "4" vs the "4.5" both at -110. This is what Ray was asking.

To calculate the worth of the 1/2 point(s), you have to know the push rate of the number(s) involved. For the 4, I used 2.5% (Comptrbob, Irish Tim, OSU may have something slightly different and going to change their answer). Theoretically then, if the game closes 4 BW has a 52.50% chance of winning his wager which is .12% > than the 52.38% breakeven of -110. He theoretically wins, his follower theoretically loses. If the follower spends 10 cents and buys up to +4.5 -120, theoretically he also loses as 52.5%< 54.55%.

Answering Ray's original question properly would be "it depends". And what it depends on is the specific numbers and the price he's paying on/off those numbers.

Now, the counter argument would be that BW isn't a coin flipper, and the baseline for his intent wager is > than 50% changing the math of the advantage gained by chasing a 1/2 point.
The full 4 in NCAABB is worth roughly 4.2% in a vacuum. Taking +4 vs +4.5 reduces the expected longterm win rate by roughly 2.1%.

Sports betting is very tough vs -110 as it is. Giving away an extra 2.1% by chasing down the "right side" at a worse number is not profitable.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#21
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

The full 4 in NCAABB is worth roughly 4.2% in a vacuum. Taking +4 vs +4.5 reduces the expected longterm win rate by roughly 2.1%.

Sports betting is very tough vs -110 as it is. Giving away an extra 2.1% by chasing down the "right side" at a worse number is not profitable.
My bad. I missed Ray's follow up post where he said this was mostly college hoops, I assumed he was talking the NFL......I assumed that when he said this-

BW takes +4.5 you take +4 etc. BUT not the games where BW takes +3 and you would have to take +2.5 ....still a loser?
My example was for the NFL obv.........and I agree with your post.
 

newport2

EOG Dedicated
#22
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

totally agree.

But let me just confirm...if BW played 1000 games at +4.5 and you played the same 1000 games at +4 all at -110 (this is fictional guys) you are saying enough games land on 4 where he wins and you push and thats still the difference...agree?
How about all the games where Billy ends up landing on the other side of the +4.5?:pop:
 
#23
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

My bad. I missed Ray's follow up post where he said this was mostly college hoops, I assumed he was talking the NFL......I assumed that when he said this-



My example was for the NFL obv.........and I agree with your post.
Ahh, ok. Looks like the full 4 in the NFL is worth right at 3.0%.

+4.5 would be 1.5% better than +4. Not as bad as the NCAABB example but still the same principle.

Can't consistently give away those edges and expect to win over time. Today's sports markets are just too tight.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#25
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Ahh, ok. Looks like the full 4 in the NFL is worth right at 3.0%.

+4.5 would be 1.5% better than +4. Not as bad as the NCAABB example but still the same principle.

Can't consistently give away those edges and expect to win over time. Today's sports markets are just too tight.
So the moral of the story is if you like a side or total and you missed the best price available, you should pass the game?
 

newport2

EOG Dedicated
#26
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

So the moral of the story is if you like a side or total and you missed the best price available, you should pass the game?
You should pass ALL the games. Playing a part of the "order" on a daily basis is a recipe for disaster.
 
#27
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

99% of these guys chasing steam who tell you they know whose steam it is are blowing smoke up your ass- They are sitting in front of don best-or if the have moles-locked into off screen accounts at various shops that constantly refresh(smart shops block these guys because it slows down sites). Some guys have auto bet programs as this accounts that they are privy to makes a bet there auto bet goes off and hits all there own off screens and gets them what ever they can at the same #-

The game has become very sophisticated-


Anyone who wants to know how to stop these guys from dragging down your bandwidth and slowing down your sites by constantly auto refreshing just PM me-


Now getting back to the original questions-

Lifetime loser as others have already said-
 
#28
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

You should pass ALL the games. Playing a part of the "order" on a daily basis is a recipe for disaster.
best statement yet


unless your just a middler/scalper type-then if you know its moving u could care less whose order it is-ur not gambling anyway
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#30
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

So the moral of the story is if you like a side or total and you missed the best price available, you should pass the game?
The best answer to these type of questions is "it depends". If a line opens +4.5, you get +4, and it closes +2.5 you're certainly happy getting .5 off the best available price.
 
#34
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

So the moral of the story is if you like a side or total and you missed the best price available, you should pass the game?
Not exactly. Here is where it gets tricky....

If you aren't originating your own numbers there is no way to tell what fair value is. For example...

BW's Fair Value number on a game is 3.5 and the line is 4.5. At +4.5 -110 he has a profitable play by roughly 1.8%. (+4.2% for the full +4 less the 2.38% vig) The follower comes in behind him at +4 -110. That person has a wager with a negative expectation as the 2.1% he gets for the push on the +4 won't outrun the 2.38% in vigorish.

But, if FV is 3.5 and the line opens 5 then chasing down the +4.5 isn't a bad thing. It's still a profitable bet, just not as good as the +5 bet. The only way to know FV though is to create your own number. You cant chase steam and take the worst of it bet after bet as you will be playing the same side at 1-3% the worst of it.

Edges are SOOOO small in today's market that giving away those %'s will turn winners into losers. We are not in the 80's or 90's anymore where a winning percentage of 55-56% was actually obtainable over a large sample size. The best of the best may hit 53-54% over a 10k sample in today's markets.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#35
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

OSU, any chance you are going to be in Vegas next month the week of the 19th? :cheers
 
#36
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Edges are SOOOO small in today's market that giving away those %'s will turn winners into losers. We are not in the 80's or 90's anymore where a winning percentage of 55-56% was actually obtainable over a large sample size. The best of the best may hit 53-54% over a 10k sample in today's markets.

This.


By the way VD, is it true Fiest used to come into Castawas and plays every NFL game for 10k before they opened up? After he got done betting they hung numbers for the public to bet. Your story about Chuck Sharpe is what made me think of this, couple guys that worked there would talk about it.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#37
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

The best answer to these type of questions is "it depends". If a line opens +4.5, you get +4, and it closes +2.5 you're certainly happy getting .5 off the best available price.
So how do you handle it when you like the dog at +4 which is everywhere at the moment and the game opened +4.5
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#38
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Not exactly. Here is where it gets tricky....

If you aren't originating your own numbers there is no way to tell what fair value is. For example...

BW's Fair Value number on a game is 3.5 and the line is 4.5. At +4.5 -110 he has a profitable play by roughly 1.8%. (+4.2% for the full +4 less the 2.38% vig) The follower comes in behind him at +4 -110. That person has a wager with a negative expectation as the 2.1% he gets for the push on the +4 won't outrun the 2.38% in vigorish.

But, if FV is 3.5 and the line opens 5 then chasing down the +4.5 isn't a bad thing. It's still a profitable bet, just not as good as the +5 bet. The only way to know FV though is to create your own number. You cant chase steam and take the worst of it bet after bet as you will be playing the same side at 1-3% the worst of it.

Edges are SOOOO small in today's market that giving away those %'s will turn winners into losers. We are not in the 80's or 90's anymore where a winning percentage of 55-56% was actually obtainable over a large sample size. The best of the best may hit 53-54% over a 10k sample in today's markets.
let me read this 25 times and i'll be back :)
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#39
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

So how do you handle it when you like the dog at +4 which is everywhere at the moment and the game opened +4.5
I'll sound like a parrot......it depends. If I have the game lined lower or still believe +EV at +4 I'll bet it if I think that's the best way to bet that situation. Sometimes when I miss a target # I'll try and come up with creative wagers that are correlated to my original opinion where the edge may be greater even though the limits will be smaller.

Others in here have made excellent points regarding your OP.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#40
Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

I'll sound like a parrot......it depends. If I have the game lined lower or still believe +EV at +4 I'll bet it if I think that's the best way to bet that situation. Sometimes when I miss a target # I'll try and come up with creative wagers that are correlated to my original opinion where the edge may be greater even though the limits will be smaller.

Others in here have made excellent points regarding your OP.

Thanks...Yes love this thread
 
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