"COVID-19 herd immunity strategy could lead to 'overwhelming death and devastation' "

#1
"Experts: COVID-19 herd immunity strategy could lead to 'overwhelming death and devastation' Abby Haglage

Wed, October 14, 2020, 11:34 AM PDTSenior Trump administration officials have reportedly endorsed a reopening strategy that hinges on exposing young, healthy people to COVID-19 in order to protect those at highest risk, the New York Times writes. The plan is aimed at achieving “herd immunity,” defined by the Mayo Clinic as when a “large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.”

Herd immunity is typically only reached through vaccination, and experts say attempting to attain it without a vaccine — in the midst of a pandemic where as many as 95 percent of Americans aren’t immune — could be disastrous. “Two to 6 million deaths is a perfectly reasonable back-of-the-envelope calculation,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, tells Yahoo Life.
When asked about the potential loss of life that could occur from a herd immunity strategy, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services directed Yahoo Life to a series of tweets from its secretary, Alex Azar. In them, Azar mentions a meeting with Trump’s newest coronavirus adviser, Dr. Scott Atlas, as well as some of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, a petition created by a subset of scientists who believe herd immunity is the best solution.
But this group of scientists — who did not reply to Yahoo Life’s request for comment — are decidedly in the minority. Schaffner, a 50-year-plus veteran of epidemiology, says taking their approach to herd immunity would be playing with fire. “If we leave it to the virus itself, we have to recognize that in many parts of the United States at present, less than 5 percent of people have been infected,” he says. “That means the virus would have to infect a vastly larger number of people to actually achieve herd immunity — at the price of huge amounts of social disruption, sickness, hospitalizations and, obviously, deaths.”
This level of illness, he says, could lead to a catastrophic loss of life. “The price would be enormous,” says Schaffner. “You would be rivaling the 1918 colossal influenza pandemic.” An estimated 50 million people worldwide died from that pandemic, including close to 700,000 people in the U.S. alone. Experts believe that roughly 25 percent of the U.S. population was infected with the virus at the time, leading to a 12-year drop in the average life expectancy rate.
Dr. Dara Kass, Yahoo Life’s medical contributor, believes there are many reasons why herd immunity could be a deadly disaster — not least of them that young, healthy people are not immune from severe illness. “There is a risk of every person getting infected passing away,” Kass says. “It may be smaller for young people than older people, but this is not a riskless infection.”
She notes that other countries, such as New Zealand, have been able to reopen by taking more serious precautions to prevent COVID-19, like enacting rigorous contact tracing programs. Meanwhile, the approach of Sweden, which set out to achieve herd immunity, has been labeled a “disaster” and a “failure,” resulting in one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.
Kass suggests that this example is even more reason to avoid it. “There is no objective evidence that this would work. None,” she says. “What these people are advocating for is a hypothetical that could result in overwhelming death and devastation, with no backing from any public health.” To employ this strategy, she says, would not only put young people at risk but force older and more vulnerable people to have to endure even more isolation — all seemingly in an effort to reopen the country more quickly. “They’re basing this on a hypothetical that makes their lives easier,” says Kass. “It’s lazy.”
Schaffner agrees that those who buy into it are missing the point. “There are always people — and I think more this time, because of the political overtones — who are dubious about the epidemic, who don’t really understand how it’s spread, and who, if they are not personally affected, don’t care very much,” he says. “We have a core of conspiracy theorists in the United States that seem to be with us. So it’s not really surprising. What is surprising is that there are people supporting it who seem to have some scientific background. I find it stunning.”
Although some may continue to argue that herd immunity has been achieved with other infections, such as measles, Schaffner says proponents of that theory are misguided. “They forget the price. Before we had a measles vaccine, 500 children died each year in the United States of measles and its complications,” he says. “That’s the price of herd immunity. Nature is fierce. It’s not benign.”
[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/exp...whelming-death-and-devastation-183450443.html[/URL]
 
#5
"Experts: COVID-19 herd immunity strategy could lead to 'overwhelming death and devastation' Abby Haglage

Wed, October 14, 2020, 11:34 AM PDTSenior Trump administration officials have reportedly endorsed a reopening strategy that hinges on exposing young, healthy people to COVID-19 in order to protect those at highest risk, the New York Times writes. The plan is aimed at achieving “herd immunity,” defined by the Mayo Clinic as when a “large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.”

Herd immunity is typically only reached through vaccination, and experts say attempting to attain it without a vaccine — in the midst of a pandemic where as many as 95 percent of Americans aren’t immune — could be disastrous. “Two to 6 million deaths is a perfectly reasonable back-of-the-envelope calculation,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, tells Yahoo Life.








[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/exp...whelming-death-and-devastation-183450443.html[/URL]
ny times is ALL LYING LEFTIST HACKS,
 
#10
Wise cautionary foresight as opposed to foolish irresponsibility. Like advocating wearing a motorcycle or bicycle helmet.

Herd immunity worked in Sweden. Read the papers and they say it isn't working. They now have 5 or 6 deaths a day and they are in nursing homes.
1) Sweden's strategy has not gone well. Sweden has way more total deaths than their 3 Nordic neighbours combined who mandated shutdowns. While Sweden has a 50% larger population than the 3 of them combined. And Sweden is no better off economically. It seems lockdowns were the superior choice.

2) Sweden has not achieved "herd immunity". Infections have spiked and risen 300% there recently.

3) Sweden's approach was - and still is not - to let or encourage everyone to live as they normally do to achieve "herd immunity". As per the strategy described in the OP. In practice what Sweden did was a soft lockdown.

4) If C-19 had been treated as just another flu - without extreme safety measures (e.g. lockdowns, social distancing, masks, contact tracing, etc) there would be 10 million dead already from C-19 infections instead of 1/10 th of that. Furthermore, many hospitals would have been overwhelmed leading to many non C-19 related deaths also.
 
#11
X-Holes the laughing stock of one forum already is attempting to make it two, spamming piece of trash. Have you been to Thailand lately for the underage stuff you like? Well with you here bigrubber will be relegated to the 2nd most annoying twat around.
 
#15
You're way off, if you're under 50 the chances are far less than 1 10th of 1%

The majority of those who have died after contracting the novel coronavirus are people over the age of 80, with 2,080 deaths recorded in total since the beginning March.
The fact is that the survival rate of corona is 99.97% for anyone under 50. For a 74 year old man like Trump the survival rate is 96%
So Trump was playing Russian Roulette with his life in acting irresponsibly.

And under 50 people acting foolishly, selfishly & irresponsibly are putting the 50+ & "high risk" people's lives & health in peril.

COVID-19 SURVIVAL RATES (per CDC):

Ages 0-19: 99.997%

Ages 20-49: 99.98%

Ages 50-69: 99.5%

Ages 70+: 94.6%
So if you're 70+ there is a very real chance of dying from a C-19 infection. Greater than 5% or 5 in 100.

Also if you're 50-69 there is a very real chance of dying from a C-19 infection. Exactly 5 in 1000.

Anyone wanna play some "Russian Roulette". That's a fool's game.

Wake up.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dict...ian%20roulette
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dic...ssian-roulette
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/di...ssian-roulette

The following is from:

[URL unfurl="true"]http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1166698&p=13261144&viewfull=1#post13261144[/URL]


Shutdowns were the most effective precaution there was from a cautious health expert perspective. That's why the experts advocated lockdowns. They worked to save millions of lives from death, as well as millions of others from illness, hospitalization, ICU & long term negative health effects. Which would have impacted economies negatively. And led to hospitals being overwhelmed & having to choose between who lives & who dies because they wouldn't have been able to treat many emergency patients on arrival & have been forced to turn many away from timely needed emergency care. Leading to many more deaths.

So you're saying you advocated a Swedish approach "all along" from the beginning of the pandemic? Are you not aware that Sweden has suffered way more infections and deaths relative to their Nordic neighbours with no advantage economically? The Sweden approach has been a failure!

Are you not aware that even apparently healthy young people are dying & suffering long term negative consequences from C-19, in addition to suffering in ICU's from the illness. Which you ignored from my previous post.

"I was infected with coronavirus in March, six months on I’m still unwell

Charlie Russell, 27, is one of an estimated 600,000 people with post-Covid illness, a condition that may give an insight into ME"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-still-unwell

More on the long term negative effects of C-19 infection here:

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/c-19...vivors.723087/

As for the shutdowns, what is obviously clear is they have had many benefits:

1) serious vehicular accidents & deaths are way way down
2) flu deaths & serious complications have decreased tremendously
3) C-19 ill health & deaths are far less due to the lockdowns
4) likewise probably other communicable diseases (e.g. tuberculosis, HIV) have been greatly reduced by the extreme safety measures in place
5) street crimes have probably been highly reduced.
6) families have been able to spend more time together enjoying each others company while free from the slavery of that 4 letter word "work" that the vast majority hate. Giving more time for quality of life activities like sex & various entertainments.
7) abortions (child murder) are probably down.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...1#post13211637

Many kids & young people's lives have already been saved due to the worldwide lockdowns.

Because motor vehicle accident deaths are the #1 leading worldwide cause of death in such.

"Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for U.S. teens."

https://www.google.com/search?q=lead...hrome&ie=UTF-8

"Each year, 1.35 million people are killed on roadways around the world.4

"...Road traffic injuries are estimated to be the eighth leading cause of death globally for all age groups and the leading cause of death for children and young people 5–29 years of age. More people now die in road traffic crashes than from HIV/AIDS.4"

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/...nd%20cyclists.

As for "trillions in damage", there would have been huge economic damage with or without the shutdowns. Without shutdowns millions more people get ill, hospitalized, suffer long term ill health & death leading to employees being absent from work, businesses shutdown anyway, & in many cases for much longer, etc.
 
#16
Only way to handle this as Sweden showed the world.
Sweden's strategy has not gone well. Sweden has way more total deaths than their 3 Nordic neighbours combined who mandated shutdowns. While Sweden has a 50% larger population than the 3 of them combined. And Sweden is no better off economically. It seems lockdowns were the superior choice.
 
#18
New cases are setting records all over europe, they had the strongest lockdowns in the word, the strictest mask orders, all for nothing. The only people that should be isolated are the very old, everyone else should be living normal lives with zero restrictions, if that had been done this would be over by now, just like in sweden.
 
#19
Russian roulette? Old people have a higher chance of dying from everything than the young - the flu as well, is that russian roulette, should the world be locked down forever because various disease's exist?
 
#20
What you guys miss about Sweden is they never shut their schools down, and in the spring there wasn't mass testing, they likely had huge numbers of young people that got it(with few effects) and are now immune. Their kids aren't spreading it anywhere right now like is happening in much of the US.
 
#21
What you guys miss about Sweden is they never shut their schools down, and in the spring there wasn't mass testing, they likely had huge numbers of young people that got it(with few effects) and are now immune. Their kids aren't spreading it anywhere right now like is happening in much of the US.
It’s over
 
#22
New cases are setting records all over europe, they had the strongest lockdowns in the word, the strictest mask orders, all for nothing. The only people that should be isolated are the very old, everyone else should be living normal lives with zero restrictions, if that had been done this would be over by now, just like in sweden.
"Sweden compared to other Nordic countries which they share so many societal norms with.

As of October 15
--------------------------7 day average---------------7 day average/Mln
Sweden--------------653------------------------------64/Mln
Denmark------------410------------------------------70/Mln
Norway--------------131------------------------------24/Mln
Finland---------------228-----------------------------41/Mln

As per some people's made up standards we can clearly see Sweden has reached herd immunity and others haven't. We can also clearly see that those other countries are in a 2nd wave meanwhile Sweden isn't. :ROFLMAO: "

Note the sarcasm at the end there.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/why-most-masks-dont-work.726027/page-11#post-6836890
 
#24
"Sweden compared to other Nordic countries which they share so many societal norms with.

As of October 15
--------------------------7 day average---------------7 day average/Mln
Sweden--------------653------------------------------64/Mln
Denmark------------410------------------------------70/Mln
Norway--------------131------------------------------24/Mln
Finland---------------228-----------------------------41/Mln

As per some people's made up standards we can clearly see Sweden has reached herd immunity and others haven't. We can also clearly see that those other countries are in a 2nd wave meanwhile Sweden isn't. :ROFLMAO: "

Note the sarcasm at the end there.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/why-most-masks-dont-work.726027/page-11#post-6836890
Compare them to countries to the south of them, sweden is better compared to them than their immediate neighbors for various reasons. Plus you completely miss the fact that life is normal is sweden, no one wears masks, no one social distances, there is no fear and hysteria.
 
#25
Russian roulette? Old people have a higher chance of dying from everything than the young - the flu as well, is that russian roulette, should the world be locked down forever because various disease's exist?
It's Russian Roulette if you put the gun to your head. In the case of covid that would be acting irresponsibly like Trump did. (Or young covidiots exposing high risk people to covid). Lucky for him the pulling of the trigger was from a gun chamber without a ballet in it. Others have not been so lucky.

As for the flu, it is far far far less deadly than C-19:

"By the way, the facts about COVID-19 vs Flue in the US - the lies Trump, Pense (saying flu kills 100k a year) and his uneducated masses is promoting:
Flu Deaths by season:
2015-2016 23,000
2016-2017 38.000
2017-2018 61,000
2018-2019 34,000
2019-2020 22,000
vs.
COVID-19 deaths year-to-date 2020 210,000 and rapidly rising.

Source: CDC and John Hopkins University
The fact-based world not the Trump alternative facts fantasyland.


https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/thi...aced-the-fire-hose.725831/page-2#post-6828507

"...the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the [covid] mortality rate at 0.65 percent."

The United States already has the highest number of cases in the world and the most recorded deaths of any country. Though its 330 million people represent roughly 4.25 percent of the world’s population, the country has recorded just over 20 percent of deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

According to a Johns Hopkins University analysis, which is updated daily, the case fatality rate in the United States was 2.8 percent as of Thursday. That compares with the CDC’s 0.65 percent estimated infection fatality rate — which includes confirmed cases plus an estimate of those who may not even know they have been exposed. The case fatality rate in the United States is much higher than in South Korea, Taiwan and Iceland, where it has been below 2 percent, but lower than in some other hard-hit countries, such as Iran and Brazil.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/09/covid-mortality-rate-down/

"One important thing to get straight here is exactly how dangerous seasonal influenza is. The fatality rate that has been cited most often (including by me) is 0.1%, which happens to be about what you get if you divide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s estimates of U.S. influenza deaths over the past nine years by its estimates of symptomatic cases. But just as with the coronavirus, testing has shown that many people infected with influenza viruses develop no flu symptoms. In a Twitter thread from February that a reader pointed out to me this week, University of Oxford infectious disease epidemiologist Christophe Fraser estimated that the actual infection fatality rate (which I will refer to from now on as IFR) of seasonal influenza is 0.04%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...rse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far
 
#26
What you guys miss about Sweden is they never shut their schools down, and in the spring there wasn't mass testing, they likely had huge numbers of young people that got it(with few effects) and are now immune. Their kids aren't spreading it anywhere right now like is happening in much of the US.
Actually Sweden did shut down high schools and universities. Cases have spiked 300% there recently.
 
#28
Did you like that MI poll?
Latest Michigan poll

At least you're still holding on to Ohio at the moment

Civiqs and Rust Belt Rising's poll consists of 2,289 likely voters:
  • Overall battleground results: 51% Biden, 46% Trump, 3% other, 1% unsure
  • Michigan (543 respondents): 52% Biden, 43% Trump, 4% other, 2% unsure
  • Ohio (586): 50% Trump, 47% Biden, 3% other, 1% unsure
  • Pennsylvania (600): 52% Biden, 45% Trump, 2% other, 1% unsure
  • Wisconsin (560): 53% Biden, 45% Trump, 2% other, 1% unsure
 
#29
New cases are setting records all over europe, they had the strongest lockdowns in the word, the strictest mask orders, all for nothing.
Not everywhere in Europe. Though a rise in infections is expected when cold weather moves people indoors, kids are back in school, businesses reopen, lockdown restrictions ease more, people act irresponsibly with flu season coming.

New Zealands hard lockdown brought infections to zero for over 100 days & life returned to normal with stadiums full of spectators while in the USA fans were not being allowed at sporting events.

Sweden & it's 3 neighbours had few people wearing masks. Sweden did not have a hard lockdown, but it's 3 Nordic neighbours - Finland, Denmark & Norway - did. But Sweden's strategy has not gone well. Sweden has way more total deaths than their 3 Nordic neighbours combined who mandated shutdowns. While Sweden has a 50% larger population than the 3 of them combined. And Sweden is no better off economically. It seems lockdowns were the superior choice.

The only people that should be isolated are the very old, everyone else should be living normal lives with zero restrictions, if that had been done this would be over by now, just like in sweden.
It's not only the "very old who are at "high risk" re C-19.

C-19 is not over in Sweden, but up 300% in infections recently.

People "living normal lives", i.e. irresponsibly (no masks, no distancing, etc), is largely why many places are in the mess they are in now & why some places are shutting some things down again temporarily. They should blame themselves for screwing things up for everyone & costing some people their health or even their lives.

Mask use & shutdowns were not for nothing. Without extreme safety measures it wouldn't be a million dead, but 10 million.

Death isn't the only concern re C-19:

"I was infected with coronavirus in March, six months on I’m still unwell

Charlie Russell, 27, is one of an estimated 600,000 people with post-Covid illness, a condition that may give an insight into ME"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-still-unwell
 
#30
Not everywhere in Europe. Though a rise in infections is expected when cold weather moves people indoors, kids are back in school, businesses reopen, lockdown restrictions ease more, people act irresponsibly with flu season coming.

New Zealands hard lockdown brought infections to zero for over 100 days & life returned to normal with stadiums full of spectators while in the USA fans were not being allowed at sporting events.

Sweden & it's 3 neighbours had few people wearing masks. Sweden did not have a hard lockdown, but it's 3 Nordic neighbours - Finland, Denmark & Norway - did. But Sweden's strategy has not gone well. Sweden has way more total deaths than their 3 Nordic neighbours combined who mandated shutdowns. While Sweden has a 50% larger population than the 3 of them combined. And Sweden is no better off economically. It seems lockdowns were the superior choice.



It's not only the "very old who are at "high risk" re C-19.

C-19 is not over in Sweden, but up 300% in infections recently.

People "living normal lives", i.e. irresponsibly (no masks, no distancing, etc), is largely why many places are in the mess they are in now & why some places are shutting some things down again temporarily. They should blame themselves for screwing things up for everyone & costing some people their health or even their lives.

Mask use & shutdowns were not for nothing. Without extreme safety measures it wouldn't be a million dead, but 10 million.

Death isn't the only concern re C-19:

"I was infected with coronavirus in March, six months on I’m still unwell

Charlie Russell, 27, is one of an estimated 600,000 people with post-Covid illness, a condition that may give an insight into ME"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-still-unwell
Thanks for your posts X

Maybe the most informative Covid posts EOG has had
 
#31
Actually Sweden did shut down high schools and universities. Cases have spiked 300% there recently.
Well if Raiders and Jason the outliner are promoting the validity of herd immunity then you can be confident herd immunity doesn't work.

"Hydroxychlorquine is a miracle drug sent from the heavens".
-Jason the Right wing jew.
- the retarded one known as Raiders

The orthodox and right wing jews were big promoters of Hydroxychlorquine. Some of the scummiest humans known to society.
 
#33
Chris Christie says " I wore a mask for 7 months, then for Donald Trump I went 4 days without a mask and ended up in ICU".

Trump is a traitor and tramples the oath he swore too when taking office.
 
#35
"Sweden compared to other Nordic countries which they share so many societal norms with.

As of October 15
--------------------------7 day average---------------7 day average/Mln
Sweden--------------653------------------------------64/Mln
Denmark------------410------------------------------70/Mln
Norway--------------131------------------------------24/Mln
Finland---------------228-----------------------------41/Mln

As per some people's made up standards we can clearly see Sweden has reached herd immunity and others haven't. We can also clearly see that those other countries are in a 2nd wave meanwhile Sweden isn't. :ROFLMAO: "

Note the sarcasm at the end there.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/why-most-masks-dont-work.726027/page-11#post-6836890
Cases don't mean a thing. We don't know the ages or the accuracy.
 
#37
Blacks are affected by Covid at a much higher rate than Whites. Covid hits big cities with a high population of Blacks. The second biggest city in Denmark has 237,000 people. There are over 70 cities with more than 238,000 in the US. Can't compare apples to oranges.
 
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