Re: EOG Saturday Horse Racing Pick thread...
Oaklawn - Race 10
#3 Scatman (8/1 ml)
Was quite impressed by this horse's race last time, and think in many respects he ran better than the winner Secret Circle, who incidentally is the 9/5 ml favorite here. Showed very keen speed from the inside to outfoot the very fast Secret Circle to the lead, admittedly helped a bit by the fact that he was on the inside and it was a short run into the first turn. However, once they straightened away onto the backstretch, Scatman scooted away a bit and appeared to be moving easier than Secret Circle, who was having to be pushed along a bit to keep up. Secret Circle then came to put the pressure on, pinning Scatman down on the rail on the inner half of a speed duel, but Scatman responded beautifully to hang on to the lead, and even began opening up again briefly in the stretch. They went to the wire as team (while opening up 5 lengths on the rest of the field, in time that was a full second faster than the other division of the Southwest), with Scatman finally succumbing just a bit at the wire to miss by half-length in an extremely game performance. I think we need to keep in mind though that Scatman was making his first start around two turns that day (stretching out from 6 furlongs to a mile), while also stuck on the inner half of a speed duel with a Breeders Cup winner applying the pressure. I think he acquitted himself extremely well considering the circumstances, and figures to have gotten a ton out of the race conditioning-wise, not to mention experience-wise. Secret Circle, on the other hand, was making his second start around two turns, held a huge class-edge on Scatman, plus had position on him, and could barely put him away. Both horses ran well, but i think Scatman ran better and has more room for improvement. Think the discrepancy in price here is totally ridiculous, and has more to do with Secret Circle's reputation (and the Baffert connections) than it does with the reality of the situation. Excellent value on this prime contender.