EOG's Best Bet thread for Thursday, October 10


EOG Veteran
042 Colorado Avalanche +100 (5 dimes)

Won’t get to watch because our local tv station (Altitude) is in a dispute with the cable companies. They better get this shit figured out before Nuggets season.
>Posting Thursday for Thursday spot for Friday game...
Friday, October 11, 2019—111 Colorado State -3 -115 (Intertops)

8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT (CBSSN, DirecTV 221)—The number in this one has gone down from Colorado State (minus) 7 to 3 with Rams QB Collin Hill (Torn ACL Left Knee) Out for the third time with the same injury to the same body part. But this Pick is more Art (75%) than Science (25%) with thoughts that despite CSU’s regression, these two MWC teams are still at different levels.

After Hill was injured against Arkansas, redshirt JR Patrick O’Brien came in and played admirably against the Razorbacks, ending with 10 completions for 106 yards and a TD. Since then, O’Brien—a transfer from Nebraska—has thrown for 974 yards but only 3 TDs with 2 INTs and a 52.9 QBR (#77 FBS). Behind O’Brien is redshirt JR Justice McCoy. After facing Arkansas, Toledo, Utah St and San Diego St, all Losses, CSU’s Power Ratings and Perceptions have slid for many. Then, toss in the starting QB going out for the year, and you have a seemingly small number for Road chalk CSU (1-5 SU, 3-2 ATS) against New Mexico (2-3 SU/ATS) at Dreamstyle (formerly University) Stadium (FieldTurf) in Albuquerque on Friday night (Total 66½).

Expectations (Art) and Strength of Schedule (Science) would be the two things I’d weigh heaviest here with CSU 19-6 SU the L25 meetings (15-9 ATS) since 1992) and generally considered an average to decent team the L20 years while NM has definitely bordered, and still may be, living in Rat range. New Mexico has played NMS-FCS LIB-SJS its L3 games while CSU has had to bang helmets with TOL-USU-SDS, a huge difference in talent levels.

If NM allowed 52 points to NMS, how many will CSU score, even with a 2nd-string QB? With RB Marvin Kinsey Jr (618 rushing yards, 4 TDs) and WRs Dante Wright (32/487/3), Warren Jackson (31/327/3)—Concussion, Listed Questionable on Thursday—EJ Scott (10/152/1) and Nate Craig-Myers (12/253/1), O’Brien has a pretty nice group to throw the football to with RB Kinsey Jr also a decent pass-catcher (15/208/2) and able to be targeted more should Jackson not be able to go, with Jadon Walker also a possibility. And note that lead WR Dante Wright has 10 Rushing attempts for 117 yards and 2 TDs, so expect HC Mike Bobo (26-25-1 ATS) to use the 5-10, 165-pound Freshman once or twice on an End Around to possibly score on New Mexico’s Swiss Cheese D.

CSU’s (2-0 SU vs NM L2 years) lone Win in 2019 is vs FCS Western Illinois while NM’s two Wins came against FCS Sam Houston State in the opener and vs Land Of Enchantment rivals New Mexico State, 55-52 in a thriller in the annual Rio Grande Rivalry in ABQ in which the Lobos held off the Aggies, so, this is where the rubber hits the road for both teams with MWC play kicking into high gear.

The Rams, better in past seasons, are a profitable 8-4 ATS the L12 at Albuquerque and 5-1 ATS the L6 series meetings, beating NM as 2-point Underdogs at Home last season (20-18) but only beating Los Lobos, 27-24 as 10-point chalks the last time they played at 1111 University Boulevard SE (2017). Los Lobos (9-15 ATS vs CSU since 1992) are coming in 15-24 ATS their L39 (38.5%) and with the Rams having so few opportunities for Wins and really needing one here, they should play an aggressive Offensive game and be able to outscore Sheriron Jones and the hosts by double digits. CSU may be a good Teaser starter also, at +4 after applying +7 to the current predominant (-) 3’s on the betting board. New Mexico scares nobody. Ask Liberty.

Colorado State 41 New Mexico 31
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Likes: E$
Friday, October 11, 2019—56 Hurricanes -165 (BetOnline)

7:30 pm EDT/4:30 pm PDT (ESPN+, MSG+, FSCR)—After its release this (Thursday) afternoon Offshore, the Wiseguys are all over the host Hurricanes, driving an opening -153 line to as high as -175 in some shops (BookMaker, JustBet) with Carolina’s perfect 4-0-0 start (11 GF-6 GA) and the Islanders average one (1-2-0, 7 GF-8 GA) and the Home Site (PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC) likely reasons why the quick 10- to 20-cent line jump. Three of the Canes 4 Wins have been by 1 goal with three in OT with 1 of those 3 going to a SO, so, bettor better beware. Expect this (side) number to keep rising, Mr. Mojo.

Those interested in this game will want to, or probably already know, that Carolina HC Rod Brind’Amour has alternated starting G’s with James Reimer (2.42 GAA) going Games 2 and 4 and Petr Mrázek (2.84 GAA) starting Games 1 and 3—both at Home—meaning that the big Czech (6-2, 183 pounds, 103-78-26 career) may be in net. In their last skate, Carolina doubled up Florida, 6-3 at Home in Raleigh as 12 different Carolina players registered a point including last season’s top scorer, Sebastian Aho, who notched his first Goal of the season on an empty-netter while New Kid On The Tar Heel State Ice Ryan Dzingel scored twice.

"We are still in a good spot, and we know we can be better, so we'll go to the drawing board here and get better," Brind’Amour told the press after the victory as his Hurricanes—without RW Jordan Martinoook (Surgery on Friday, Out 6-8 Weeks)—are feeling fine and off to their best start in 24 years.

With Captain Jordan Staal (3 points), Erik Haula (3 goals), Andrei Svechnikov (6 points), Teuvo Teräväinen (5 points), the aforementioned Dzingel (4 points) and Dougie Hamilton (5 points) all playing well, Carolina (-1½ +161 P/L) sweeping the Isles out of the NHL Playoffs last year and NY having scored just 7 Goals in 3 games, backing the hosts early before the line gets too high makes sense. Go out of your way to help the songbirds.

Carolina has W5 overall vs the Isles and NY is 1-10 L11 vs the Metropolitan Division and 0-6 L6 Fridays. The Hurricanes are tied for the best start in their franchise's history and will definitely want to strut their stuff in front of the Home Raleigh crowd on Friday night when Fan Blood Alcohol Blood Levels are probably around .09 (3 Drinks, 160 pounds) higher, meaning more Noise and higher Expectations. Six of the top 10 attended Hurricanes games have come in 2019. The Hurricanes have their own beer now:

Hurricanes 4 Islanders 2

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TYVM Morgan William!!!

I love too many games today and struggled to marrow it down to just 1 so I'm doing this knowing full well this won't cash because 1 will kill me but WTF (JK - I'll compute the payout after it is done - because the totals could PUSH and lower the payout)

Ducks/Pens U6 -119
Avs/Bruins U6 -121
Avs -103
Vegas -113
042 Colorado Avalanche +100 (5 dimes)

Won’t get to watch because our local tv station (Altitude) is in a dispute with the cable companies. They better get this shit figured out before Nuggets season.
They won't, Directv trying to put Altitude out of business and Dish trying to get out of carrying any sports teams. Comcast just playing along, most obvious case of collusion you will ever see but not like the Trump administration is ever going to stop it. I just pay for NHL TV and use a VPN, easily pay for it with the savings from cutting the cord and paying less for a streaming service.