Fezzik GOY Part III
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
cheapseats
EOG Master
No sweat in that late cover.
Heim
EOG Master
The entire landscape of touts has changed. Before it was all sides and totals and you manipulate your record to show over
60 percent. Naturally all self monitored.
Now derivatives have entered the arena because on these sites like PG your history is exposed and nobody is going
to achieve a hit rate with full game that's going to raise eyebrows to buy.
Full game is the fentanyl for touts now, they prefer no sweat Flinstone vitamins.
Some books only allow over props. That isn’t a whole lot different.
Heim
EOG Master
I could have sworn he predicted a anti-correlated parlay, Dem popular vote to Trump winning.
Dell Dude
EOG Master
blueline
EOG Master
He did
Dell Dude
EOG Master
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
Kamala is going to win. Everything breaking her way in this final week including that disastrous Madison Square Garden rally for Trump. Trump is also very visibly impaired and is barely limping to the finish line. Very good value right now for Kamala on Polymarket. I bet her once at 38 cents and rode that to 50 before selling. Now she's sitting around 34 cents. Tempting.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Just bullshit designed to showcase the self-appointed brilliance of AF.
louisvillekid
EOG Dedicated
Just remember , Trump in 2016 only won...
PA by 68k votes
WI by 27k votes
MI by 11K votes
NC by 177k
FL by 119k
AZ by 84K
He won the 3 states of WI, MI and PA combined by less than 110k votes, out of like 12+ million votes.
In 2020 , Joe Flipped most of those, and won by similar margins.
he won PA by only 80k
Neither won by a "landslide."
More people voted in 2020 vs 2016 vs 2012, and more are expected to vote this yr vs 2020.
Bookmakers have the odds for the Dem candidate to win Gov in NC , same with the senate races in AZ, PA, MI and WI, all have the Dem candidates as a decent fav.
OH senate race is a toss up. MT is a tight race.
Even Reagan's historic winning of 49/50 states in electoral college , you'd think he would've won 70+% of the popular vote, but it was more like 58-59%
PA by 68k votes
WI by 27k votes
MI by 11K votes
NC by 177k
FL by 119k
AZ by 84K
He won the 3 states of WI, MI and PA combined by less than 110k votes, out of like 12+ million votes.
In 2020 , Joe Flipped most of those, and won by similar margins.
he won PA by only 80k
Neither won by a "landslide."
More people voted in 2020 vs 2016 vs 2012, and more are expected to vote this yr vs 2020.
Bookmakers have the odds for the Dem candidate to win Gov in NC , same with the senate races in AZ, PA, MI and WI, all have the Dem candidates as a decent fav.
OH senate race is a toss up. MT is a tight race.
Even Reagan's historic winning of 49/50 states in electoral college , you'd think he would've won 70+% of the popular vote, but it was more like 58-59%
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Anyone remember what state Reagan didn't win that year?
I wonder if he lifts Krack's match play placemat when he's not looking 
1984, Walter Mondale only carried his home state of Minnesota (+DC).
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Ding ding
Computer Bob on the dot
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Nov 2 2024
Heim
EOG Master
I'm on the same side. They're not betting Az (today) as I expected.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
He gave a strong case for Arizona on the dream preview podcast stating the biggest factor was strength of schedule for the bears and cardinals. RJ had a good set of SOS ratings from the netflo which had Arizona in the top 3 and chicago in the bottom 3.
why the ML?
Well it is the smarter play if the line is under 2. why pay -110 on -1.5 when circa has -120 and the worse I saw was -130
So you are paying 20 cents for 1.5 points
Now the question is should you pay 20 cents for 1.5 points from pk to 1.5?
Well I don't have the numbers but the landscape of today's NFL and how up 1 is a 2 pt attempt now I think it might be
So your next question is why is a GOY played on the ML if it's that strong of a bet?
Well the simple answer is Fezzik is a chicken shit who is scared to death yet when everything falls into his favor he can't pull the trigger.
That's the 2024 fezzik. Someone that the 2004 fezzik would rip to shreds as a coward.
But RJ keeps those checks coming every month so Steve has to heat his pool somehow.
why the ML?
Well it is the smarter play if the line is under 2. why pay -110 on -1.5 when circa has -120 and the worse I saw was -130
So you are paying 20 cents for 1.5 points
Now the question is should you pay 20 cents for 1.5 points from pk to 1.5?
Well I don't have the numbers but the landscape of today's NFL and how up 1 is a 2 pt attempt now I think it might be
So your next question is why is a GOY played on the ML if it's that strong of a bet?
Well the simple answer is Fezzik is a chicken shit who is scared to death yet when everything falls into his favor he can't pull the trigger.
That's the 2024 fezzik. Someone that the 2004 fezzik would rip to shreds as a coward.
But RJ keeps those checks coming every month so Steve has to heat his pool somehow.
railbird
EOG Master
its not anti coorelated, it is the odds on favorite of the 4 options
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
Selzer poll very good for Harris. Clearly other pollsters vastly overestimated Trump who is struggling to fill small arenas. Harris has got this. Game, set, match. I'm sure you'll all be whining about fraud after AP calls it for Harris which will be SOON.
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
You are grossly underestimating the enthusiasm gap for Trump. It is obvious at the rallies. Harris is filling arenas whereas Trump is struggling to fill gymnasiums. The lines were 5 hours today to see Kamala in Philly.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Are these arenas filled with illegals?
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
OK definitely not a good night for Harris. Kiss $1600 goodbye for me... unless Kamala has a blue wall miracle.
Get lost asshole- go back to suckin your brother’s dick, that’s what you do best.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
Got a blue horseshoe stuck up your ass. No silver lining to have dems win the house,want trump to pass policy, unless you want some migrants to come over for dinner