Full card of NFL discussion?

We should have a weekly open discussion on each game. I have a few games I have taken a position in but have a lot of leans. Good to have some real talking points brought out on each game. Here are my thoughts on every game right now, hoping we get some good thoughts or tidbits on every game so please all contribute.

Giants-Eagles: hate this game, can't back that offense at -4 or more. I think I'll just hold my nose and take a small bet on the Giants just to take advantage of some bonuses. I think the total is right about what I'm thinking, a 24-21 Eagles win.

Browns-Bengals: took a little Cincy at +4, not as fond of it at +3.5. Give Burrow credit, he's legit and putting up points with a terrible OL. I am heavily shading towards unders as part of the expected regression, but this is one of a couple overs I do like but waiting to see if it pops down below 50.

Cowboys-Football Thing: as I mentioned elsewhere I normally would back an 0-6 ATS team, but not this one. I do think they can keep the Footballs from running over them, but this defense is going to feast on mediocre Andy and his deteriorating line. I got some +2, I'd keep betting it. Like the under, but at 46 I like it a lot less than the 48 and 49s I missed early.

Lions-Falcons: coaching changes work for a few weeks so I'm leaning Falcons here, but probably just going to pass on it. No feel on the total either, mid 50s seems about right. Actually might lean under but Falcons have burned a lot of unders with lousy late game defense so just passing.

Panthers-Saints: can you really bet against Teddy as a dog? Hard to believe this has passed over the 7, I'm going to wait for this to balloon further to cut off the teaser hunters. I wouldn't be surprised to get closer to 10 by game time. Passing on the total, could see it being in the low 40s or high 60s, just depends on how game develops as it seems for most Saints games. Never seen a QB and an offense as comfortable playing games scoring in the low 20s or low 40s like this one.

Bills-Jets: I swear the Jets are a play soon, but not this week. Bills got embarrassed, no better team to take it out on than this one. And lots of people are saying Flacco isn't a real drop off from Darnold, but I totally disagree. Flacco at this point is the worst QB in the leagues two-deeps right now, his lack of mobility leads to drive killing sacks. Leaning towards the over, but Bills might go into a shell late so I'd look at 1st half over or pass.

Packers-Texans: Texans coming off that painful loss facing a guy who is going to light them up. I really don't like laying -3.5 on the road, but shouldn't matter here. I did get some -3 -20 earlier. Looking at an over as I expect Rodgers to come out firing, but I could see Pack defense putting the clamps on late so I'd look to bet over 1st half instead of game.

Steelers-Titans: talk about the wrong favorite, seems like every public voice is on the Steelers, but still Titans with slight chalk. Little worried about it, but did take Steelers at +115 early on. Total seems a bit low, but in my focus on unders I'll probably just pass unless it gets to 49.

Seahawks-Cardinals: I thought at 3 it was the perfect number. I'd pass at -3.5 either way, important divisional game that figures to be played at a slower pace than total suggests. Much prefer the under 56 here, wondering if it gets bought back down or heads higher. I probably take a small under 56 and then bet more if it goes up more.

Niners-Patriots: improvements in health for Niners and a return to the game plans that won them a bunch of games last year after the wake up call against the Dolphins going against a Pats offense that teams have pretty much "solved". Probably a good case to be made for the under, but Niners get a lot of explosive plays from a conservative offense so going to pass unless this gets back up closer to 46.

Chiefs-Broncos: 10 feels about right, I'd focus more on the total. Its going to be really cold in Denver, low 20s and some snow around so bet this now even though its already going down. I could see this being something like 17-9 with Mahomes coming up with a few big plays, but mostly focused on ball control and ground game, while Broncos may lose some value from their MVP so far, kicker McManus.

Jags-Chargers: raise your hand if you are willing to lay anything with the Chargers... Thought so, the most unreliable chalk team around goes up against a bad team lacking talent. I really don't have a feel on side or total, but if I had to bet it would go with Jags and the points knowing the backdoor is always open against Anthony Lynn's teams.

Bucs-Raiders: hard to cap with the Covid stuff going on with the Raiders. I think the expectations for letdown on the Bucs are a bit overdone. Its a prime time game against Gruden, they care to win as much as he does. Maybe next week Bucs letdown against Giants. I'd probably lay 3, not willing to lay 3.5 out there now. Slight lean to the under here, I don't think the Raiders can move the ball against this defense much and Bucs could settle in for a pound it mentality if they get a decent lead. This one may be like last week for TB, some scoring early and then a boring second half.

Bears-Rams: the line seems too high, but the total seems WAY too high. This feels like an old school 37 or 38 total. I don't see either QB lighting up the other team and both coaches are more than happy to just play the field position game with dumb shit like runs on 3rd and 10. Total has come down and I have a very large position at under 46.5 so not taking any more, but even at under 45 still just seems off. I'd back the Bears at +6, but really would focus on the under more.

My Best Bets at current numbers
Bears un45
Packers ov27.5 1st half
Panthers +7.5 (waiting for higher)
Chiefs un46
SF +2.5
Pit +110
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for sharing, WildBill.

Love the way you see the product.

Cold temperatures could offset some of Patrick Mahomes's brilliance.

Dog and under could be the right parlay.

Tick tick tick.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
My fantasy team's defenses are the top 2 rated ones for the week

Iggles
Bills

We are gonna go with

Bills
 
Thanks for sharing, WildBill.

Love the way you see the product.

Cold temperatures could offset some of Patrick Mahomes's brilliance.

Dog and under could be the right parlay.

Tick tick tick.
Medium to light snow flurries without much wind usually helps the offense. The WRs know where their going DBs don't. The game actually slows down for most QBs. IMO this game comes down to if the Broncos can keep the Chiefs in front of them, limiting the big plays. Broncos have to get pressure with their front 4, Mahomes isn't Darnold or Cam he'll burn them if they get blitz happy like they did against the Jets and Pats. Broncos Offense moved the ball at ease in between the 20s last week against a good Pats defense if Fant is back look for them to put up some points. Let the squares hammer the Under as soon as I see a 45 I'll be hitting the Over.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Seattle-AZ has been moved to the Sunday Night game, TB-LV to the late afternoon slot. I'm guessing if the TB game is postponed, NBC doesn't want to be shut out on Sunday night.

Gamblingwise, Have to think AZ on the prime stage for a second week in a row will get much more attention from the betting public.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Seattle-AZ has been moved to the Sunday Night game, TB-LV to the late afternoon slot. I'm guessing if the TB game is postponed, NBC doesn't want to be shut out on Sunday night.

Gamblingwise, Have to think AZ on the prime stage for a second week in a row will get much more attention from the betting public.

Al has to be crushed. Here he was all set to get paid to go to a city he is all too familiar with. Now........Not so much. Although he will be back home sometime Sunday Night like he was last week. Wouldn't shock me at all if after the SNF game this past week Al flew home on the Rams plane since that is home for him
 
Al has to be crushed. Here he was all set to get paid to go to a city he is all too familiar with. Now........Not so much. Although he will be back home sometime Sunday Night like he was last week. Wouldn't shock me at all if after the SNF game this past week Al flew home on the Rams plane since that is home for him

I doubt it matters to him, he's still going to bet with the same bookie he's used for decades.
 
Medium to light snow flurries without much wind usually helps the offense. The WRs know where their going DBs don't. The game actually slows down for most QBs. IMO this game comes down to if the Broncos can keep the Chiefs in front of them, limiting the big plays. Broncos have to get pressure with their front 4, Mahomes isn't Darnold or Cam he'll burn them if they get blitz happy like they did against the Jets and Pats. Broncos Offense moved the ball at ease in between the 20s last week against a good Pats defense if Fant is back look for them to put up some points. Let the squares hammer the Under as soon as I see a 45 I'll be hitting the Over.

Very fair points about the weather, but I think it will be an adjustment for these guys because its still early for such a raw day. In a cold day passing can be more difficult because the ball doesn't travel quite the same and is a bit harder to grip and rip. Lock looked pretty terrible in last year's snow game, but the wind was a bigger factor than this one might be.

As for the blitz, sure doesn't seem likely Fangio will use it much here. He used it a lot against Cam because he said it during the interviews that he isn't accurate throwing under pressure. Everyone knows that's not Mahomes so I'd be surprised if they dialed up the blitz more than a few times. In fact I think they might follow exactly what you said, keep everyone in front of them and hope that the weather and some timely plays stops KC drives and forces kicks which may be more difficult in the conditions. They have enough decent rushers on the line to keep Mahomes from getting too much time, but they know as well as anyone you really don't want to over-rush because he beats you outside the pocket better than anyone.
 
Money moving onto Carolina, going to lock in the 7.5 now. Trying to understand more about how many OL Raiders could be missing. Bucs DL could roll a cluster of backups.
 

kane

EOG master
[QUOTE="WildBill, post: 7654003, member: 4128"]Money moving onto Carolina, going to lock in the 7.5 now. Trying to understand more about how many OL Raiders could be missing. Bucs DL could roll a cluster of backups.[/QUOTE]

I agree
 
So Darnold is starting? Don't really get why the Jets would rush him back, seems like he won't be 100% effective. Flacco is horrible, but what's there to gain for the Jets in this spot or even the Chiefs game? Their problem is they won't admit Flacco is 100% useless, they would be better off starting Morgan or some kid off the street than Statue Joe.
 

choslamshe

EOG Master
Good D, was great before Vea injury. Lots of weapons on Offense, but the QB holds them back.

It really is apparent watching him that the decline is in full force. With all of the talent around him, the numbers will lead one to believe he still has something left in the tank...but it isn't much.
 
It really is apparent watching him that the decline is in full force. With all of the talent around him, the numbers will lead one to believe he still has something left in the tank...but it isn't much.

He is so reminiscent of Manning's final year. He can find a scheme edge and complete a lot of shorter passes and he can audible out of a bad play well, but there is a lot of areas of the field if you are defending you basically know he won't beat you on. Teams were playing off the Broncos receivers 8-10 yards on the wide side of the field because they knew he wouldn't challenge them with a long throw like the type Brady keeps getting pick sixed on. Basic stuff, but to his advantage he's got a better receiving core than Manning had late in his career and if AB can turn into anything this year that's just gravy. Probably can put him in the slot and once he gets chemistry Brady will go to him often in the Edelman/Welker type role.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Next week, the Chiefs host the Jets. How many points does one need to take the Jets against the Chiefs? It has to be at least 21, to take the Take Flight crew.
 
"Last week we suggested that if we were in the prediction business, we would “hammer” Tennessee at -3½ to beat Houston. We would have very luckily cashed that wager but Houston was supposed to cover. If you bet Tennessee, you got extremely lucky. Well, this one has the same feel. Houston can’t stop the marching band. Had the Packers whacked the Bucs or even won, we could anticipate this as a letdown spot but it’s not. They were embarrassed so it is a bounceback spot. Thus, we repeat, if we were in the prediction business, we would be betting the Packers but it looks “too easy,” and while there is no chance of us taking back a short number on Houston, we cannot get behind the easiest looking favorite on the board. Like the rest of the market, we’re “predicting” Green Bay by three TD”s but we’re “recommending” taking the points because it also has the feel of a massive trap."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nfl/picks.php?pid=24562
 
A couple of prop bets I played

Albert Okwuegbunam@ +1000
NFL: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos


lbert Okwuegbunam@+5000
Sun 12:37 - Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - First Touchdown Scorer

A lil birdie told me that they have been working him heavily at practice in their redzone offense.
 
A couple of prop bets I played

Albert Okwuegbunam@ +1000
NFL: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos


lbert Okwuegbunam@+5000
Sun 12:37 - Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - First Touchdown Scorer

A lil birdie told me that they have been working him heavily at practice in their redzone offense.

found +1400 and +7000 at BetRivers
 
Thanks for sharing, WildBill.

Love the way you see the product.

Cold temperatures could offset some of Patrick Mahomes's brilliance.

Dog and under could be the right parlay.

Tick tick tick.

Hard for dog and under to get there when you can't cover a kickoff and throw a terrible pick six.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Good stuff WB.

If we haven't witnessed the end of the Pats Era yet, today I'm throwing dirt on the grave. Cam has been brutal.
 
Good stuff WB.

If we haven't witnessed the end of the Pats Era yet, today I'm throwing dirt on the grave. Cam has been brutal.

This era yeah, but they have pretty good pieces on defense and just need to find a QB that fits them better. The Cam led offense always gets solved, its just a matter of discipline and making him beat you with his arm.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
This era yeah, but they have pretty good pieces on defense and just need to find a QB that fits them better. The Cam led offense always gets solved, its just a matter of discipline and making him beat you with his arm.
Its amazing how well they did with basically the same offense last year. There are no real playmakers at the skilled positions. It may be bottom-five actually.

If the game ends now, its the worst home loss for BB since going to NE.
 
Its amazing how well they did with basically the same offense last year. There are no real playmakers at the skilled positions. It may be bottom-five actually.

If the game ends now, its the worst home loss for BB since going to NE.

Big difference when you have to play against the threat of a QB run. Way NFL teams are built is so much about the pass rush, getting guys to slow their roll for one week and just take it easy on the rush and maintain discipline to stop this offense takes some adjustment. Teams much preferred facing a low mobility QB like Brady, but Brady was smart enough to scheme out of bad situations and get rid of the ball quicker. Of course the Pats worked on blocking for that situation as well, this year its so different. A standard drop back QB with some modest pocket mobility is what the Patriot offense has always been about and what I'm sure they will do anything to get next year.
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
Edelman is completely useless in this offense.

Might as well trade him, because by the time they rebuild, he will be done anyways.
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
Big difference when you have to play against the threat of a QB run. Way NFL teams are built is so much about the pass rush, getting guys to slow their roll for one week and just take it easy on the rush and maintain discipline to stop this offense takes some adjustment. Teams much preferred facing a low mobility QB like Brady, but Brady was smart enough to scheme out of bad situations and get rid of the ball quicker. Of course the Pats worked on blocking for that situation as well, this year its so different. A standard drop back QB with some modest pocket mobility is what the Patriot offense has always been about and what I'm sure they will do anything to get next year.

they were very low on talent last year as well.

It was simply disguised by the fact that the defense got so many turnovers early on in the season.

When that stopped the real Pats stood up. I believe they finished the second half 4-4
 
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