WildBill
2
We should have a weekly open discussion on each game. I have a few games I have taken a position in but have a lot of leans. Good to have some real talking points brought out on each game. Here are my thoughts on every game right now, hoping we get some good thoughts or tidbits on every game so please all contribute.
Giants-Eagles: hate this game, can't back that offense at -4 or more. I think I'll just hold my nose and take a small bet on the Giants just to take advantage of some bonuses. I think the total is right about what I'm thinking, a 24-21 Eagles win.
Browns-Bengals: took a little Cincy at +4, not as fond of it at +3.5. Give Burrow credit, he's legit and putting up points with a terrible OL. I am heavily shading towards unders as part of the expected regression, but this is one of a couple overs I do like but waiting to see if it pops down below 50.
Cowboys-Football Thing: as I mentioned elsewhere I normally would back an 0-6 ATS team, but not this one. I do think they can keep the Footballs from running over them, but this defense is going to feast on mediocre Andy and his deteriorating line. I got some +2, I'd keep betting it. Like the under, but at 46 I like it a lot less than the 48 and 49s I missed early.
Lions-Falcons: coaching changes work for a few weeks so I'm leaning Falcons here, but probably just going to pass on it. No feel on the total either, mid 50s seems about right. Actually might lean under but Falcons have burned a lot of unders with lousy late game defense so just passing.
Panthers-Saints: can you really bet against Teddy as a dog? Hard to believe this has passed over the 7, I'm going to wait for this to balloon further to cut off the teaser hunters. I wouldn't be surprised to get closer to 10 by game time. Passing on the total, could see it being in the low 40s or high 60s, just depends on how game develops as it seems for most Saints games. Never seen a QB and an offense as comfortable playing games scoring in the low 20s or low 40s like this one.
Bills-Jets: I swear the Jets are a play soon, but not this week. Bills got embarrassed, no better team to take it out on than this one. And lots of people are saying Flacco isn't a real drop off from Darnold, but I totally disagree. Flacco at this point is the worst QB in the leagues two-deeps right now, his lack of mobility leads to drive killing sacks. Leaning towards the over, but Bills might go into a shell late so I'd look at 1st half over or pass.
Packers-Texans: Texans coming off that painful loss facing a guy who is going to light them up. I really don't like laying -3.5 on the road, but shouldn't matter here. I did get some -3 -20 earlier. Looking at an over as I expect Rodgers to come out firing, but I could see Pack defense putting the clamps on late so I'd look to bet over 1st half instead of game.
Steelers-Titans: talk about the wrong favorite, seems like every public voice is on the Steelers, but still Titans with slight chalk. Little worried about it, but did take Steelers at +115 early on. Total seems a bit low, but in my focus on unders I'll probably just pass unless it gets to 49.
Seahawks-Cardinals: I thought at 3 it was the perfect number. I'd pass at -3.5 either way, important divisional game that figures to be played at a slower pace than total suggests. Much prefer the under 56 here, wondering if it gets bought back down or heads higher. I probably take a small under 56 and then bet more if it goes up more.
Niners-Patriots: improvements in health for Niners and a return to the game plans that won them a bunch of games last year after the wake up call against the Dolphins going against a Pats offense that teams have pretty much "solved". Probably a good case to be made for the under, but Niners get a lot of explosive plays from a conservative offense so going to pass unless this gets back up closer to 46.
Chiefs-Broncos: 10 feels about right, I'd focus more on the total. Its going to be really cold in Denver, low 20s and some snow around so bet this now even though its already going down. I could see this being something like 17-9 with Mahomes coming up with a few big plays, but mostly focused on ball control and ground game, while Broncos may lose some value from their MVP so far, kicker McManus.
Jags-Chargers: raise your hand if you are willing to lay anything with the Chargers... Thought so, the most unreliable chalk team around goes up against a bad team lacking talent. I really don't have a feel on side or total, but if I had to bet it would go with Jags and the points knowing the backdoor is always open against Anthony Lynn's teams.
Bucs-Raiders: hard to cap with the Covid stuff going on with the Raiders. I think the expectations for letdown on the Bucs are a bit overdone. Its a prime time game against Gruden, they care to win as much as he does. Maybe next week Bucs letdown against Giants. I'd probably lay 3, not willing to lay 3.5 out there now. Slight lean to the under here, I don't think the Raiders can move the ball against this defense much and Bucs could settle in for a pound it mentality if they get a decent lead. This one may be like last week for TB, some scoring early and then a boring second half.
Bears-Rams: the line seems too high, but the total seems WAY too high. This feels like an old school 37 or 38 total. I don't see either QB lighting up the other team and both coaches are more than happy to just play the field position game with dumb shit like runs on 3rd and 10. Total has come down and I have a very large position at under 46.5 so not taking any more, but even at under 45 still just seems off. I'd back the Bears at +6, but really would focus on the under more.
My Best Bets at current numbers
Bears un45
Packers ov27.5 1st half
Panthers +7.5 (waiting for higher)
Chiefs un46
SF +2.5
Pit +110
Giants-Eagles: hate this game, can't back that offense at -4 or more. I think I'll just hold my nose and take a small bet on the Giants just to take advantage of some bonuses. I think the total is right about what I'm thinking, a 24-21 Eagles win.
Browns-Bengals: took a little Cincy at +4, not as fond of it at +3.5. Give Burrow credit, he's legit and putting up points with a terrible OL. I am heavily shading towards unders as part of the expected regression, but this is one of a couple overs I do like but waiting to see if it pops down below 50.
Cowboys-Football Thing: as I mentioned elsewhere I normally would back an 0-6 ATS team, but not this one. I do think they can keep the Footballs from running over them, but this defense is going to feast on mediocre Andy and his deteriorating line. I got some +2, I'd keep betting it. Like the under, but at 46 I like it a lot less than the 48 and 49s I missed early.
Lions-Falcons: coaching changes work for a few weeks so I'm leaning Falcons here, but probably just going to pass on it. No feel on the total either, mid 50s seems about right. Actually might lean under but Falcons have burned a lot of unders with lousy late game defense so just passing.
Panthers-Saints: can you really bet against Teddy as a dog? Hard to believe this has passed over the 7, I'm going to wait for this to balloon further to cut off the teaser hunters. I wouldn't be surprised to get closer to 10 by game time. Passing on the total, could see it being in the low 40s or high 60s, just depends on how game develops as it seems for most Saints games. Never seen a QB and an offense as comfortable playing games scoring in the low 20s or low 40s like this one.
Bills-Jets: I swear the Jets are a play soon, but not this week. Bills got embarrassed, no better team to take it out on than this one. And lots of people are saying Flacco isn't a real drop off from Darnold, but I totally disagree. Flacco at this point is the worst QB in the leagues two-deeps right now, his lack of mobility leads to drive killing sacks. Leaning towards the over, but Bills might go into a shell late so I'd look at 1st half over or pass.
Packers-Texans: Texans coming off that painful loss facing a guy who is going to light them up. I really don't like laying -3.5 on the road, but shouldn't matter here. I did get some -3 -20 earlier. Looking at an over as I expect Rodgers to come out firing, but I could see Pack defense putting the clamps on late so I'd look to bet over 1st half instead of game.
Steelers-Titans: talk about the wrong favorite, seems like every public voice is on the Steelers, but still Titans with slight chalk. Little worried about it, but did take Steelers at +115 early on. Total seems a bit low, but in my focus on unders I'll probably just pass unless it gets to 49.
Seahawks-Cardinals: I thought at 3 it was the perfect number. I'd pass at -3.5 either way, important divisional game that figures to be played at a slower pace than total suggests. Much prefer the under 56 here, wondering if it gets bought back down or heads higher. I probably take a small under 56 and then bet more if it goes up more.
Niners-Patriots: improvements in health for Niners and a return to the game plans that won them a bunch of games last year after the wake up call against the Dolphins going against a Pats offense that teams have pretty much "solved". Probably a good case to be made for the under, but Niners get a lot of explosive plays from a conservative offense so going to pass unless this gets back up closer to 46.
Chiefs-Broncos: 10 feels about right, I'd focus more on the total. Its going to be really cold in Denver, low 20s and some snow around so bet this now even though its already going down. I could see this being something like 17-9 with Mahomes coming up with a few big plays, but mostly focused on ball control and ground game, while Broncos may lose some value from their MVP so far, kicker McManus.
Jags-Chargers: raise your hand if you are willing to lay anything with the Chargers... Thought so, the most unreliable chalk team around goes up against a bad team lacking talent. I really don't have a feel on side or total, but if I had to bet it would go with Jags and the points knowing the backdoor is always open against Anthony Lynn's teams.
Bucs-Raiders: hard to cap with the Covid stuff going on with the Raiders. I think the expectations for letdown on the Bucs are a bit overdone. Its a prime time game against Gruden, they care to win as much as he does. Maybe next week Bucs letdown against Giants. I'd probably lay 3, not willing to lay 3.5 out there now. Slight lean to the under here, I don't think the Raiders can move the ball against this defense much and Bucs could settle in for a pound it mentality if they get a decent lead. This one may be like last week for TB, some scoring early and then a boring second half.
Bears-Rams: the line seems too high, but the total seems WAY too high. This feels like an old school 37 or 38 total. I don't see either QB lighting up the other team and both coaches are more than happy to just play the field position game with dumb shit like runs on 3rd and 10. Total has come down and I have a very large position at under 46.5 so not taking any more, but even at under 45 still just seems off. I'd back the Bears at +6, but really would focus on the under more.
My Best Bets at current numbers
Bears un45
Packers ov27.5 1st half
Panthers +7.5 (waiting for higher)
Chiefs un46
SF +2.5
Pit +110
