Goon's Gamble - NHL 2018-2019

DrunkenGoon

EOG Dedicated
#1
This is my warmup run before turning tout... ;)

Gonna post all plays in this tread, only promise I make is that my money will be behind every pick listed at the price posted.

I try to get down early on game day or at opener and the market tends to move, please don't complain if the line posted is no longer available. I am always looking for market overreactions, last minute lineup changes, so there will be some plays right at puck drop as well. If I have time, I will post details with the plays, most times I won't.

You want to discuss hockey, I am here, you want to debate, debate the plays, not my views on politics, beer taste or where I live.

You will notice that I play a lot of chalk. While a lot of people consider that square-ish, I won't apologize for it, if you don't like it feel free to fade me and we'll compare notes at the end of the season. As long as the info/data is good, I will max bet on opening faceoffs, if that makes me a degen, please join the club. I also bet quite a few team totals and 1P totals. This year I plan on expanding into player stats props.

Hopefully I can keep this thread going all season, if I stop posting it won't be for any other reason than life being too busy. I have two kids involved in multiple activities, as many as 10 combined per week so life will get in the way at times.

Rooting interests: I'm a Leaf fan living in Ottawa, personally hate the Sens but can't be too obvious about it as my son's a fan, I am letting him make his own mistakes.

Most seasons I grab some early futures, right now the only bet I have is Sharks to win the west at 10-1. We'll keep that out of the score keeping as the number is off and running.

If anyone brings up the Forsberg for Erat deal, I would like to remind them that Washington did win the Stanley Cup last season while Nashville are still looking for their first, maybe it was addition by subtraction after all :)

For those that don't know, this is my 25th season betting the NHL, the 9th straight that I do it in the most professional way I know how, there's only been one losing season in that stretch with a couple of ho-hum ones as well. Best one in the book was the year the Kings won the cup as an 8th seed in the west. I track every bet I make and I always tent to take market best prices.

If you're slow catching up on sarcasm, please try to read what I posted twice before coming in with a holier than thou approach.

Let's drop the damn puck already!

#1. Toronto Maple Leafs -210 over Montreal 1 unit
Guess what, Webber was named Habs captain today... Wow, that's really gonna help their defense with some leadership, except he's on the shelf for a few months. The Leafs juggernaut offense will be going at Reilly, Petry, Mete, Juulsen, Alzner, Ouelette Tuesday night. The Leafs shipped Carrick for a late round pick to Dallas today, he would probably crack the Habs top 4 Dmen at this point. This is a significant mismatch and while I never put much weight on preseason action, the speed and size of the Leafs really caused Montreal trouble in the last meeting in Montreal. Big edge in special teams for Leafs, also in the circle with Domi shifting into C from the wing (while missing most of the preseason suspended). Habs are going into a lot of games hoping Price can steal it, I have a hard time seeing that happen in Toronto on opening night.

Good up to -250
Predicted score: 5-1 Leafs

#2. Calgary Flames -120 over Vancouver 1 unit
Good up to -140
Predicted score: 4-2 Flames

#3. San Jose -160 over Anaheim 1 unit
We all know about the sharks off season, EK9EK65, massive signing and trade. That defense is just mind boggling good with two shutdown guys and a pair of 30' a night Norris type guys. There is no reason for sharks PP not to push 30-35% efficiency, that is 1+ goals a night. Ducks had serious injury problems last season leading the league in man games lost to injuries, but it could be even uglier to start this year without Kessler and Perry on top of Eaves, Ritchie and Kolzer. These pacific division matches tent to go the home field advantage's way and I expect no different here. The Ducks were crap out of the gate last season and should have the same type of problems this year. Their significant saving grace is goaltending, I have Gibson top 6 in the league, a lot of his work goes unnoticed, especially to east coast scribes. The Ducks are ok top 4 defensively and will compete but when their 3rd pairing goes out, they are severely outmatched. Unless the sharks self destroy, this should be relatively comfortable.
Good up to -175
Predicted score: 3-1 Sharks

May all your bets be winners
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#3
I agree on Flames, already played it and made it an EOG BB. I don't think the books realize just how much Vancouver sucks

I looked at the Guppies/Inferior Ones game, too. I think the Guppies smash them and instead of laying -160 I like the PL of around +190
 

Gabe

Tilt initiator
#6
Playing chalk is not squarish. You pay juice for both the dog and the favorite, one of the many misconceptions repeated over and over.

Do your thing, Goon. Lets have a great NHL season.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#7
Well put, Gabe.

There are good favorites and bad favorites.

I look to bet focused favorites and avoid complacent ones.
 

VegasVic

EOG Senior Member
#8
Already with you on the Leafs and Sharks. I just chose to parlay the two, paying off +131.

Look forward to reading your thoughts. gl this year
 
#13
Ouch, that was ugly...

Leafs were fortunate to win that game, Andersen stood on his head for most of it. Habs with a lot of team speed, the pickup of Rilley was a very smart move, he fits in well and doesn't make mistakes bringing it out of his zone. Leafs PP as advertised, they are not gonna miss JVR when they bring in those 3 centers to move the puck. Quite interesting to see who picks up the crumbs and get PP time when they are not on.

Didn't watch much of the Bruins/Caps game, that was basically over in the first 10 minutes, Bruins just didn't have it, but as Marchand put it, "it's just one (fbomb) game..."

Sharks looked really good, but could not finish, that's why I have Gibson in the top 5 in the league, I was really pissed when I saw that Athletic piece about GM's basically having him as a 3rd tier goalie. Really impressed with Donskoi's play, he was basically the best guy on the Sharks, created a lot of room for Kane to operate in, generated turnovers and wrecked havoc with the Ducks breakouts. Jones stunk it up, no other way to put it 4 goals on 14 shots, started in the first minute and let's just not even bring up the game winner.

Flames were embarassingly bad in Vancouver, they had no idea how to gain the Canucks zone on their PP's, now winless in 10 season openers... Not a lot of team speed, expected much more from them. Vancouver did enough to win, took their chances well and really helped their goalie by clearing the front of the net. Markstrom was really active on dump ins, paid them back with possession.

Fortunate to go 2-3, could have easily be 0-5.

Record: 2-3-0 -2.08 units

Thursday action:
#6. Chicago -115 over Ottawa 1 unit
Good up to -135
Predicted score: 5-2 Hawks
#7. Chicago Team Total OVER 2.5 -148 1 unit
Good up to -160

Two teams that are going to struggle defensively, Chicago have more firepower and that will be enough to win this one. I really like the way the Blackhawks setup their PP in the preseason, Ottawa will miss Brady Tkachuk in this one, he's been close to their best player in the preseason.

#8. Carolina -140 over NY Islanders 1 unit
Good up to -165
Predicted score: 4-2 Canes


Got a value bet on Minny +149 (BOL) at opener, won't include that as it wasn't available for very long and current prices outside my range. Early bird, worm, etc...
 

Gabe

Tilt initiator
#17
Gabe, honest question. Will you be trying to sell picks you purge from here on your tout site? Please be honest.
absolutely not.

Please find other venues to spread your drama and hatred other than this mans sacred NHL selection thread. Try to control your urges please.
 
#19
2-1 +0.60 units Thursday
Season Totals: 4-4 -1.48 units

Saturday Action:
#9. Toronto/Ottawa OVER 6 -115 1 unit
#10. Buffalo -125 over NY Rangers 1 unit

More later....
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#22
Love the layout.

Goon added predicted scores to his acceptable odds.

And I like the idea of numbering every selection.

Why aren't NHL betting numbers as universal as the other sports?
 
#26
#13. Detroit Red Wings/LA Kings OVER 5.5 +115 1 unit

Love betting Kings overs without Quick in net, Campbell starting, this is gonna move.
 
#28
Saturday: 2-2 -0.20 units
Sunday 1-0 +1.15 units

Season Totals: 7-6 -0.53 units

#14 Vegas Golden Knights/Buffalo Sabres OVER 5.5 -110 1 unit
Good up to -125
Predicted score: 4-3 Sabres
 
#32
Thanks PJ... As I was telling someone the other day, once I get down, it absolutely doesn't affect me where the market goes because I never look to buy back. If it moves against me I am more likely to add than pass too.
 
#33
Monday: 2-0 +2.00 units
Season Totals: 9-6 +1.47 units

Busy Tuesday:
#16. Columbus -130 over Colorado 1 unit
#17. Nashville -150 over Calgary 1 unit
#18. Carolina -180 over Vancouver 1 unit
#19. LA Kings/Winnipeg Jets OVER 5.5 -120 1 unit
#20. Toronto/Dallas OVER 6 -120 1 unit
 
#35
Tuesday: 3-2 +0.30 units
Season Totals: 12-8 +1.77 units

#21. Philadelphia -115 over Ottawa 1 unit
Good up to -125
Predicted score: 4-2 Flyers

If teams take the Sens for granted, they will be surprised but I don't think Philly is in a position to do that after last night's whooping. Pickard is underrated, I would not be shocked if he stole Elliot's job by xmas.
 

Stevo

EOG Senior Member
#38
Thanks for taking me through thought process on last nights game I asked about Goon.

Additional thanks for the write-up with the pick today. Can't beat this if you're trying to learn.

Good start on fledgling full year of hockey for me.

Empty netter to close game.....LOL 7-4
 
#39
Wednesday 1-0 +1.00 units

Season Totals: 13-8 +2.77 units

#22. Columbus/Florida OVER 5.5 -120 1 unit
Good up to -130
Reimer is not your typical backup, he's a starter in this league, but the way they've been calling penalties early in the season, this should be end to end. Both teams better going forward than defending. Reimer is also one of the guys affected by the new equipment rules, the reduced padding is having an effect. (https://ingoalmag.com/gear/exclusive-carey-price-gives-first-look-at-ccm-nhl-spec-chest-protector/)

#23. Winnipeg +119 over Nashville 1 unit
Good down to +105
Playoff rematch, both should be up for it. I like Jets ability to win in different style of games, they can much it up and run it up. Preds quite undisciplined vs Flames, even if they threw a lot of rubber at Smith, they never got a lot of prime chances.

More in the morning, I'm already looking ahead to suffering from puck withdrawal with that blank slate on Friday.
 
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