Kentucky Derby 2020

Belmont Stakes now set for Saturday, June 20.

It will serve as the first leg of the Pandemic Triple Crown.

To be contested at nine furlongs, not twleve.

First time since 1926 that the race will not be run at a mile-and-a-half.
Now that I think about it that's out of the chute...a 1 turn Belmont Stakes
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for the update, BLUE.

Which racetrack do you think will be the first to welcome spectators?

Big difference for me between studio/simulcast racing and the live product.

Nothing quite like a day or night at the racetrack.
 
I really have no idea.....I havent been paying attention to what states are opening what and when...right now focusing on being out west for a month
 
Thanks for the update, BLUE.

Which racetrack do you think will be the first to welcome spectators?

Big difference for me between studio/simulcast racing and the live product.

Nothing quite like a day or night at the racetrack.
Churchill will be the first to have fans. They can't bear the thought of the Oaks and Derby with no admissions revenues.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Churchill will be the first to have fans. They can't bear the thought of the Oaks and Derby with no admissions revenues.

I hope you're right, Valuist.

Only a five-day meet for Churchill in early September.

Should be good.

I credit Churchill Downs for making an early move and switching the Derby from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September.

They look smart right now despite making a lot of bad moves in the past.
 
I’ve got $30 to win $625 on Maxfield...but also that amount on Thousand Words.

Also have Tiz $30 to win $480 that looks a lot worse now though
The good news? He won pretty impressively today. His Thorograph figure will be better than his Beyer. I just ran thru the Churchill card and am projecting a 96 (using a scale very similar to Beyers). But he was forced 4 wide on the first turn and was wide again on the second turn. Closed way past the crown of the track. I do think a few paths off the rail and off the pace was the best place to be at CD today, but he won and was geared down late, despite the winning margin not being giant.

The bad news? Still about 3.5 months to the Derby. Right now, I'd say the two Baffert runners who won divisions of the Ark Derby and Maxfield are the three to beat. Tiz the Law probably 4th.
 
The good news? He won pretty impressively today. His Thorograph figure will be better than his Beyer. I just ran thru the Churchill card and am projecting a 96 (using a scale very similar to Beyers). But he was forced 4 wide on the first turn and was wide again on the second turn. Closed way past the crown of the track. I do think a few paths off the rail and off the pace was the best place to be at CD today, but he won and was geared down late, despite the winning margin not being giant.

The bad news? Still about 3.5 months to the Derby. Right now, I'd say the two Baffert runners who won divisions of the Ark Derby and Maxfield are the three to beat. Tiz the Law probably 4th.
I was pretty close on Maxfield's number. He was assigned a 95.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67855

According to Trakus, Maxfield traveled 51 feet further in the race than did the ground saving second choice, Pneumatic. So while Beyer wise, Maxfield is behind both Baffert Ark Derby winners, he likely is just as good and maybe a little better on the Thorograph figs, which factor in ground loss.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Ignoring ground loss, a major hole in the Beyer Speed Figures.

Additionally, by definition, a horse that finishes behind another horse must receive a lower Beyer Speed Figure based on finish position.

Why such a strict rule?

Beyer Beware.
 
I can live without ground -loss factored into a number, hate ground-loaded numbers
When I used TG my favorite numbers to play off of were numbers that had a 1w1w designation.
What makes TG light years ahead is ( unless it's improved over the last number of years) is the pares/variants they use to make the numbers and I will trust jerry brown's "massaging" of a number before anything that DRF puts out.
 
Ignoring ground loss, a major hole in the Beyer Speed Figures.

Additionally, by definition, a horse that finishes behind another horse must receive a lower Beyer Speed Figure based on finish position.

Why such a strict rule?

Beyer Beware.
Because they are speed figures, not performance figures. It's up to the handicapper to make the adjustment (and for pace as well). But it gets tricky when the inside is deep. Some days being 3-4 wide may be the optimal place to be.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Because they are speed figures, not performance figures. It's up to the handicapper to make the adjustment (and for pace as well). But it gets tricky when the inside is deep. Some days being 3-4 wide may be the optimal place to be.

Speed figures, not performance figures.

Got it.

And some horses only do their best running while wide and in the clear.

A bit like dog racing where some greyhounds are "inside dogs" and others are "outside dogs."
 
After nearly two months, the horses will return to Saratoga.
The Oklahoma Training Track is scheduled to open next week.
Under normal circumstances, the Oklahoma, located across the street from Saratoga Race Course, would be in operation in mid-April. The coronavirus pandemic has kept the gates shut.
The locks come off on Tuesday when horsemen will be permitted to be in the barn area. Training will officially begin on Thursday.
“Fantastic news,” trainer James Bond said by cellphone Friday. “I’ve been there for 30 years and there is not a better track to train horses on in the country. Most tracks are in the middle of cities and there are planes going over the horses’ heads and sirens going off. It’s quiet here and horses really blossom.”
 
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