Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Heading into the final week sign-up period, the Million IV appears that it'll offer a large overlay.

$6 MILLION IN GUARANTEED PRIZES
CHOOSE 5 TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD EACH WEEK
TOTAL ENTRIES

3,158​

CURRENT OVERLAY

$2,842,000​


1 WINNER. $6 MILLION
PICK 1 TEAM TO WIN STRAIGHT UP EACH WEEK
TOTAL ENTRIES

4,283​

CURRENT OVERLAY

$1,717,000​

 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
I just posted this on Twitter:

From past history, without considering the potential overlay, about a third of current totals will be added in the final week. Puts final totals at about 4,200 for Million IV, and 5,700 for Survivor.
 
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trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
I just posted this on Twitter:

From past history, without considering the potential overlay, about a third of current totals will be added in the final week. Puts final totals at about 4,200 for Million IV, and 5,700 for Survivor.
il play over on both

will be interesting!
 
Overlays really don't mean much unless you're putting in 1,000 entries. Then you look for overlays but not 1 entry when there are 5000 others.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Overlays really don't mean much unless you're putting in 1,000 entries. Then you look for overlays but not 1 entry when there are 5000 others.

It's just simple math. Let's say you have almost no capping advantage so you're better than 49.999% and worse than the other 49.999%. You are 1 of 4200 vying for a purse of $6M. Your $1k entry cost has a beginning equity of $6M/4,200 = $1,428.57 or 42.3% increase. An entrant with 1000 entries cuts the equity to $6M/5200 = $1,153.85. Major difference.
 
It's just simple math. Let's say you have almost no capping advantage so you're better than 49.999% and worse than the other 49.999%. You are 1 of 4200 vying for a purse of $6M. Your $1k entry cost has a beginning equity of $6M/4,200 = $1,428.57 or 42.3% increase. An entrant with 1000 entries cuts the equity to $6M/5200 = $1,153.85. Major difference.
It is simple math. It's a Survivor Contest with 6,000 entries. If you are going to make have one entry, the overlay is irrelevant since your chance of winning is .0016%. If it's a one time contest you want an overlay where you can flood the market with your entries. A 5% advantage where you win 50% of the time is better than a 10% advantage that you win less than .002% of the time in one time event that won't happen again.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
It is simple math. It's a Survivor Contest with 6,000 entries. If you are going to make have one entry, the overlay is irrelevant since your chance of winning is .0016%. If it's a one time contest you want an overlay where you can flood the market with your entries. A 5% advantage where you win 50% of the time is better than a 10% advantage that you win less than 1% of the time in one time event.

Idiot, I'm talking about the Million IV. It's the one with the large overlay, currently $2,703,000 >> $1,495,000
 
Idiot, I'm talking about the Million IV. It's the one with the large overlay, currently $2,703,000 >> $1,495,000
You aren't close to being as smart as you think. In a one time contest that doesn't happen again, the overlay % isn't that important. You want to flood the market to get the win.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
You aren't close to being as smart as you think. In a one time contest that doesn't happen again, the overlay % isn't that important. You want to flood the market to get the win.

I love your naivety and ignorance. I heard the same argument that every sports event is unique from Andy Iskoe. Completely bogus if you have any understanding of probability.
 
I love your naivety and ignorance. I heard the same argument that every sports event is unique from Andy Iskoe. Completely bogus if you have any understanding of probability.
You want to go to the personal insults so I'll show you why you're an idiot. If you have 1 in a trillion chance of winning something, the overlay is dumb to look for.
 

railbird

EOG Master
You aren't close to being as smart as you think. In a one time contest that doesn't happen again, the overlay % isn't that important. You want to flood the market to get the win.
if you flood it, its no longer an overlay, its like the fight club, you dont talk about it. hated it when ticket scalpers would call their freinds for a hot event, it cuts their own throat
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
The game has passed you by. At first you said you can't dilute the equity. Then you started catching on and said it's ok to dilute the equity.

I said you will dilute the overlay significantly by adding 1,000 entries. Do you know that 3 is much less than 1,000 and the effect on the equity with the denominator going from 4200 to 5200 is much greater?
 
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