Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023

Raiders will you have entries in Circa's contests?
Not this one. I've been in the Stations years ago when family lived there. Sorry for clogging your thread since I use to put in a lot of entries in DFS overlays. I was just replying to Bob's attacks because his math is flawed.
 
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Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
No problem. Obviously, I agree with Bob regarding this discussion, but he has the greater math power to do the heavy lifting.

I'll gladly take any overlay I can get entering contests with guaranteed payouts.

Since overlay is front and center right now in this thread, I have an interesting prop for a sportsbook to offer...total # of Circa Survivor "no pick" entries week 1?

34.5 seems like a reasonable # with 6,000 entries.
 
No problem. Obviously, I agree with Bob regarding this discussion, but he has the greater math power to do the heavy lifting.

I'll gladly take any overlay I can get entering contests with guaranteed payouts.

Since overlay is front and center right now in this thread, I have an interesting prop for a sportsbook to offer...total # of Circa Survivor "no pick" entries week 1?

34.5 seems like a reasonable # with 6,000 entries.
I said take the overlay and it is an interesting thread. The math isn't difficult at all. But my point was getting more entries in is better even if you lose equity. Bob went on a rampage of attacks. If you have a .0016% chance of winning, increase your chances of winning even if you lose equity in this contest.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Update Thursday AM: Survivor 5,164 entries, Overlay 836K; Million IV 3,759 entries, Overlay 2,241M. Roughly 51 hours until the entry deadline (Sat, 2pm PT).
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
I said take the overlay and it is an interesting thread. The math isn't difficult at all. But my point was getting more entries in is better even if you lose equity. Bob went on a rampage of attacks. If you have a .0016% chance of winning, increase your chances of winning even if you lose equity in this contest.
Overlays really don't mean much unless you're putting in 1,000 entries. Then you look for overlays but not 1 entry when there are 5000 others.

Your post doesn't make any sense to me but ok.

Bullshit, you said overlays don't mean much. Three entries (up to 3 allowed) give you essentially the same percentage advantage as 1 so it's just an issue of bankroll management and having a strategy of potentially different picks on each card.
 
Bullshit, you said overlays don't mean much. Three entries (up to 3 allowed) give you essentially the same percentage advantage as 1 so it's just an issue of bankroll management and having a strategy of potentially different picks on each card.
I said overlays don't mean much when you put in 1 play and the odds of winning are .0016%. You selectively looked at my posts. You think 1 play is better than 10 because you lose equity. I'll take the 10x chance of winning. Let it go already.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
I said overlays don't mean much when you put in 1 play and the odds of winning are .0016%. You selectively looked at my posts. You think 1 play is better than 10 because you lose equity. I'll take the 10x chance of winning. Let it go already.

The Million IV prizes are distributed fairly broadly. including large quarterly awards. You don't have to win 1st place to cash. Certainly, with a large projected overlay, it is +EV unless you don't submit your picks. An actual EV calculation is complicated and depends on capping, to some degree game theory, as well as the overlay.

Even though irrelevant to the Millon Contest, the 2 previous Circa Survivors had winning percentages of 2.52% (35 of 1390 entries, 19-0 record) and 0.12% (5 of 4080 entries, 20-0 record) respectively, just ask Woodrow Wilson, he was a co-winner in the first year (had several entries as I remember) Your 0.0016% is bogus because it ignores the bonus and the huge odds against the winner being a sole survivor. For example, a rolling ML parlay of one co-winner's picks last year paid just 132/1 so with 6000 entries we could expect from 10 to 40 co-winners with 20-0 records.
 
The Million IV prizes are distributed fairly broadly. including large quarterly awards. You don't have to win 1st place to cash. Certainly, with a large projected overlay, it is +EV unless you don't submit your picks. An actual EV calculation is complicated and depends on capping, to some degree game theory, as well as the overlay.

Even though irrelevant to the Millon Contest, the 2 previous Circa Survivors had winning percentages of 2.52% (35 of 1390 entries, 19-0 record) and 0.12% (5 of 4080 entries, 20-0 record) respectively, just ask Woodrow Wilson, he was a co-winner in the first year (had several entries as I remember) Your 0.0016% is bogus because it ignores the bonus and the huge odds against the winner being a sole survivor. For example, a rolling ML parlay of one co-winner's picks last year paid just 132/1 so with 6000 entries we could expect from 10 to 40 co-winners with 20-0 records.
Stop trying to prove you're the smartest man in the room. I just said that overlays aren't all that important if you only put in 1 play. You need to greatly increase your chances of winning and you disagreed.

FWIW you've made great contributions to the forum but this one should be let go.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Stop trying to prove you're the smartest man in the room. I just said that overlays aren't all that important if you only put in 1 play. You need to greatly increase your chances of winning and you disagreed.

And with a $1k entry having an equity of around $1,400, just one entry has a significant monetary advantage. Now if you're a billionaire, the utility theory of money would say it isn't worth the effort in entering.
 
And with a $1k entry having an equity of around $1,400, just one entry has a significant monetary advantage. Now if you're a billionaire, the utility theory of money would say it isn't worth the effort in entering.
No one is disagreeing with the equity. The disagreement is that it's optimal to put in more entries because the chances of winning are slim.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
No problem. Obviously, I agree with Bob regarding this discussion, but he has the greater math power to do the heavy lifting.

I'll gladly take any overlay I can get entering contests with guaranteed payouts.

Since overlay is front and center right now in this thread, I have an interesting prop for a sportsbook to offer...total # of Circa Survivor "no pick" entries week 1?

34.5 seems like a reasonable # with 6,000 entries.

New update of # entries with about 43 hours left to enter, Survivor 5,373, Million 3,937. Survivor overlay down to $627K.

I'll guess 27 "nopick" in Survivor Week 1.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
On VSiN radio, Derek Stevens just gave the Circa Survivor entries at 5,781, Million up to 4,400, both records, 16.5 hours to go
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Survivor 6,000 entries, no overlay left, Million IV up to 4,585, Overlay is $1.415M, 35 minutes to go, 2PM PT deadline for new entry applications.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
FINAL: Circa Survivor 6,133 entries, $6,133,000 in prize money. Million IV 4,691 entries, $6,000,000 in prize money, Overlay is $1.309M.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa had a timestamp problem causing a few late entries to not have their picks registered, shut off happened early at 3:55PM.

Top 5 Circa Survivor choices: Ravens, 1663, Colts 876, Titans 708, 49ers 703, Broncos 571. 23 different teams + the Bills and Rams were chosen.

Top 5 Circa Million IV choices: Vikings +1.5, 1622, Ravens -7, 1363, Eagles -4, 1277, Steelers +6.5, 1274, Broncos -6.5, 1081.
 
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So the odds of winning with one ticket went from .0016% (no overlay) to .0021%. This is why you want many entries. The overlay is insignificant unless you have many entries. The prize amount doesn't change, just the odds of winning.
 
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Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I know railbird"s guess is 0 will run the table and complete the full season, but does anybody else want to make a prediction how many circa entries run the table?
 

railbird

EOG Master
So the odds of winning with one ticket went from .0016% (no overlay) to .0021%. This is why you want many entries. The overlay is insignificant unless you have many entries. The prize amount doesn't change, just the odds of winning.
pay 50 spots also 1/4 prizes
 
And with a $1k entry having an equity of around $1,400, just one entry has a significant monetary advantage. Now if you're a billionaire, the utility theory of money would say it isn't worth the effort in entering.
It doesn't matter since the prizes remain the same. You want to greatly increase chances of winning. The word overlay confuses most people when the dollar amount is huge.
 
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Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I think it's at least 14 states now.

$100 survivor, $250 pick 5. They changed the pick 5 from $1,500 last year. Survivor was $333 per entry last year. They raised the caps for entries too.

They guaranteed $1M and got to the guarantee.

Both are nice options to diversify the weekly contest portfolio.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
I think it's at least 14 states now.

$100 survivor, $250 pick 5. They changed the pick 5 from $1,500 last year. Survivor was $333 per entry last year. They raised the caps for entries too.

They guaranteed $1M and got to the guarantee.

Both are nice options to diversify the weekly contest portfolio.

Thanks.

I thought the survivor entry would be cheap. Do they have any added weeks to thin the herd? Otherwise, quite a few would go to the end.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Since overlay is front and center right now in this thread, I have an interesting prop for a sportsbook to offer...total # of Circa Survivor "no pick" entries week 1?

34.5 seems like a reasonable # with 6,000 entries.

I'll guess 27 "nopick" in Survivor Week 1.

Hit the no picks:

From @CircaSports: Correction: The generated report duplicated the picks of 4 entries. There are actually 1,662 RAVENS, 875 COLTS, and 569 BRONCOS. For those that did the subtraction it appeared 23 entries did not have Week 1 selections. The actual figure is 27.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Thanks.

I thought the survivor entry would be cheap. Do they have any added weeks to thin the herd? Otherwise, quite a few would go to the end.

No extras and they made one really dumb rule change. Ties are counted as wins I believe. It's almost as if they follow the belief that everyone should get a trophy.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
The DraftKings Pro Football Millionaire Survivor utilizes basic standard survivor rules. Each entry must successfully pick one winner each week. If your pick loses its game, you are eliminated. (However, for 2022, if your pick ties, it advances, which the rules are explicitly spelling out after some controversy last year.)
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor, w/ early games: survive: 2503 (Ravens, Saints, Eagles, Commanders, Dolphins, Browns, Bills, Bears), eliminated: 2142 (35.4%), pending :1461, no ticket: 27.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor, going into SNF: survive: 2684 (Ravens, Saints, Eagles, Commanders, Dolphins, Browns, Bills, Bears, Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings), eliminated: 2851 (46.9%), pending: 571, no ticket: 27.
 
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