Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023

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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa Survivor Week 16b: Survive: 3 (Bucs, Chargers), Eliminated: 1 (Dolphins) (25.0%).

Equity: $2,044,333.33

Week 17 likely picks:
Entrant Pick Prob-to-go 20-0
BROWNA-1 Chargers 40.7%
JED-4 Lions 39.6% (Jags is likely alternate)
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Lions 39.1% (Jags and Falcons are likely alternates)
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
ComptrBob said:
Circa Survivor Week 16b: Survive: 3 (Bucs, Chargers), Eliminated: 1 (Dolphins) (25.0%).

Equity: $2,044,333.33

Week 17 likely picks:
Entrant Pick Prob-to-go 20-0
BROWNA-1 Chargers 40.7%
JED-4 Lions 39.6% (Jags is likely alternate)
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Lions 39.1% (Jags and Falcons are likely alternates)
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Jags would be an awful pick this week. I say that because Jags/Titans play in Week 18. Winner-take-all for the division (Meaning this will be the SNF game)meaning both teams will not care much this week about winning - only staying healthy for Week 18. Derrick Henry won't play this week for Tennessee and while the Jags will play everyone they will be very Vanilla and not care about anything other than making it to Week 18 healthy. And keep this in mind: Saving Jags for Week 18 knowing odds are it will be the SNF game means you will know how anyone left has done (Unless anyone still has them left and all 3 do now) and can bet that game accordingly. No guarantee of making Week 18 but i would much rather have Jags in Week 18 knowing if they win they make the playoffs and Titans will be starting Malik Willis while Derrick Henry might not be anywhere close to 100%.

ANYONE taking Falcons is just asking to be sent home. They might win but getting this far and with this much on the line - NO WAY I take them.

Lions will be a solid choice but that sure takes guts to do it.

Enemy and Browns have NYG left. That has to strongly be looked at knowing if NYG wants to make the playoffs a win is a MUST. This allows them to save NYG or next week.

Chargers have to be used this week. Week 18 they go to Denver and know the next week they will have a game and that might mean sitting Herbert and if that is the case I have no desire to play the San Diego Chargers - even in Denver. Enemy/Browna also have this team.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Update:
Week 17 likely picks:
Entrant Pick Prob-to-go 20-0
BROWNA-1 Chargers 49.7% (Lions is likely alternate)
JED-4 Lions 48.7% (No likely alternate)
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Lions 48.7% (Giants is likely alternate)

Week 18, (if survive) likely pick: Jags for all (Commanders possible alternative for BROWNA and JED).
 
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winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
ComptrBob said:
Update:
Week 17 likely picks:
Entrant Pick Prob-to-go 20-0
BROWNA-1 Chargers 49.7% (Lions is likely alternate)
JED-4 Lions 48.7% (No likely alternate)
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Lions 48.7% (Giants is likely alternate)

Week 18, (if survive) likely pick: Jags for all (Commanders possible alternative for BROWNA and JED).
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I do think the Commies could be a pick because if Iggles win this week Dallass is locked into #5 and they will sit everyone while Commies could make the playoffs with a win. Jags could be popular - especially if that is the SNF game (Think it might) although if the Commies lose and both the Tiggers and Packers win that game would also be "winner-take-all" and I sense that might be chosen because it would be a much sexier ratings game than Titans/Jags.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Let's start thinking about Week 18 - knowing who each has left: https://www.circasports.com/wp-cont...-Survivor-2022-Week-16b-Team-Availability.pdf

I am 100% sure Jags will NOT be chosen by all 3. The thinking is: "I know someone will take them and I want to be on someone else if they go down"

**Browna/Enemy both have Atlanta. Knowing NO ONE will play for Tampa this is not a bad pick. They also both have the San Diego Chargers - but can't see using them here
**ALL 3 have Jags
**Jed has New Orleans - don't see that happening
**Jed has Seattle. IF this game is played before Det/GB is played I very well could see Jed using the Seahawks



BROWNA-1: Jags (He really has no other choice)
JED-4: **Seattle** - IF this is a 1P (PST) game and Det/GB is the NBC SNF game)
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2: Jags (Could take Atlanta but I can't get this far and have the Falcons standing between me and at least $2M+
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
i would not want too many people know, because their is lots of leakers, see the hustler casino poker scandal. also there have been proxys that copy plays, that happend in a contest a couple of yrs ago
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Murphy’s Best said:
They should chop it & select the same team. 2m each entry is a very nice amount!
Click to expand...

6m isn't a corner bar pool. I'd prefer sitting down with Derek Stevens and requesting a line of credit to properly hedge.

If the remaining players aren't Vegas locals, they already should have been there to enter their own pick yesterday and also next Saturday.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Until the Bucs decided to play Brady and the other starters and the Atl ML plummeted, this presented a really interesting game theoretic problem. Each entrant could have chosen a different team which produces different EV.

I use MLs as a good gauge of win probability (adjusting to the fair value win% and deducting the probability of a loss by tie). If any of the 3 were to have a radically different perspective, my analysis could be used with their model. Ignores the different tax consequences of the winnings.

Early MLs at BM were Atl -315, Jax -300, Sea -300. Now its simpler as Atl is down to -164, Jax -290, Sea -290 (@Circa). Games have been set at Jax 5:15PM PT Sat, Atl 10:00AM PT Sun, and Sea 1:25PM PT Sun. All picks will be known before the first kickoff.

There were essentially 3 scenarios:
1) All chose Jax (only reasonable pick available to all 3)
2) JED choses Sea, other 2 both choose Jax (or possibly both Atl if Bucs situation changes drastically)
3) JED choses Sea, the other 2 split their picks (Jags, Atl, now very unlikely)

So as WW points out, $6.133M (or a chop at $2.044M) is likely to be extremely significant to all 3. Using the same ratios, if $60 were at stake with an entry fee of $0.01, most would gamble to try to be the sole survivor. Most likely JED has the only useful option and limiting variance is quite useful.

So here is the tradeoff: Play Jax and chop, EV is $2.044M or gamble with Sea for outright win:

Take Jw as the Jax win% and Sw as Seattle's win%, then chop + win outright:

JED EV = $6.133M * [{Jw*Sw+(1-Jw)*(1-Sw)}/3 + Sw*(1-Jw)}}

and

BROWNA/Enemy Within EV = $6.133M * [{Jw*Sw+(1-Jw)*(1-Sw)}/3 + Jw*(1-Sw)/2}}

using current win%, JED EV =$2.462M and BROWNA/Enemy Within EV = $1.835M.

So, is the difference of $418K worth the risk of Jax winning and Sea losing (which of course can also be hedged)? The answer depends on JED's risk tolerance and hedge funds available. The simplest hedge is to bet on Jax ML and on Rams ML (or a middle with around +6.5 points, possible parlay of the two) plus separate hedge on a Seattle/LAR tie.
 
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Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
  • Selections in any game that does not have a W-L result by the end of the contest week (Wednesday at 2am PT following the game's originally scheduled time) will be scored as ½ point.
  • If the league awards a win and a loss for a game before the contest week ends and without the game being played (as in the case of a forfeit), selections for the winning team will automatically cover the contest point spread and be scored as 1 point. Selections for the losing team will be scored as 0 points.
Circa Million
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Woodrow Wilson said:
  • Selections in any game that does not have a W-L result by the end of the contest week (Wednesday at 2am PT following the game's originally scheduled time) will be scored as ½ point.
  • If the league awards a win and a loss for a game before the contest week ends and without the game being played (as in the case of a forfeit), selections for the winning team will automatically cover the contest point spread and be scored as 1 point. Selections for the losing team will be scored as 0 points.
Circa Million
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survivor they are toast
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa Survivor:

1) For the case where JED choses SEA and decides to hedge, I worked out the bets necessary to make all 4 outcomes (Jax W/Sea W; JAX W/Sea L or T; Jax L/Sea W; and Jax L/Sea L or T) return the same amount, using the current MLs of Jax -260 and Rams +224 (@Circa). I will spare the reader all the math, but it's pretty straightforward.

2) Bet on Jax ML: $2.497M, then IF Jax Wins, bet on Rams ML: $0.631M, OR IF Jax loses, bet $1.262M. Include a relatively small hedge on a Sea/Rams tie @ >= 50/1 or so.

3) Net result is winning $2.374M on all 4 outcomes, with having to have a maximum of $3.760M available to bet.

4) Note the best, very rare, case would be a Jax tie, which would refund the Jax ML bet and give JED either a chop or single win, then a Rams ML hedge of $1.262M (plus tie) would guarantee $4.871M either way. This case could also be hedged initially by a small bet against a Jax tie but is ignored in the analysis above.
 
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sharky99

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Worked out for him getting a timely big turnover and TD in 4th for the Jags, then getting the hedge on the other side on the Titans. LIke last year the one guy doesnt hedge on the Chiefs and the Broncos are going in for the TD to spoil the party and the Broncos fumble and a scoop and score for the Chiefs late in the 4th to seal his win, that was a sick play especially with no hedge.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
sharky99 said:
Worked out for him getting a timely big turnover and TD in 4th for the Jags, then getting the hedge on the other side on the Titans. LIke last year the one guy doesnt hedge on the Chiefs and the Broncos are going in for the TD to spoil the party and the Broncos fumble and a scoop and score for the Chiefs late in the 4th to seal his win, that was a sick play especially with no hedge.
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It was even worse than that. Not only did he NOT hedge he got Derek Stevens to put up an "alt spread" of something like -20 for a nice price. He expected KC to wipe the field with the Broncos but, as you said, without that fumble - not sure KC even wins the game.

Colts?

I need to hear the reasoning here because I just don't get it
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Week 18 Expected Value before games started, and no hedges included:
BROWNA-1 Jags $2.219M
JED-4 Seahawks $2.219M
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Colts $1.696M

Week 18 Expected Value after Jags win:
BROWNA-1 Jags WIN $3.083M
JED-4 Seahawks $1.725M
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 Colts $1.325M
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
winkyduck said:
It was even worse than that. Not only did he NOT hedge he got Derek Stevens to put up an "alt spread" of something like -20 for a nice price. He expected KC to wipe the field with the Broncos but, as you said, without that fumble - not sure KC even wins the game.

Colts?

I need to hear the reasoning here because I just don't get it
Click to expand...

There are only two reasons that sort of make sense.

1. Houston tanking for the #1 draft pick.

2. The last hurrah for Jeff Saturday's bad coaching experiment.

With the roster in place, Houston and Lovie have performed much better than I expected this season.
 
mrbowling300

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
How Jed and The Enemy got thru the night and endure today is beyond me. The pressure must be enormous. Also, assuming these players are average Americans, how the hell can you possibly have any resources to do any kind of significant hedge on their games?
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Woodrow Wilson said:
There are only two reasons that sort of make sense.

1. Houston tanking for the #1 draft pick.

2. The last hurrah for Jeff Saturday's bad coaching experiment.

With the roster in place, Houston and Lovie have performed much better than I expected this season.
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Agree. I wish him luck but to go with Colts with this much on the line - SMH (although rest assured he has hedged some with Houston)
 
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