Miami Heat

Heim

EOG Master
#42
Clippers need size...Morris was a great pickup. Word is IT won't play a minute for Clippers. On the Laker front Collison is
almost a done deal. Good-bye Rondo.
 

kane

EOG master
#44
Udonis Haslem said in his 17 year career with Miami, this years team has the best chemistry of any team he's been a part of
 
#45
Slight value at 75/1, but nothing that special. What if they are:

First -200
Second +200
Third +200
Finals +400

That's about 68/1. Add in the off chance they get a bunch of injuries and somehow miss the playoffs and 75/1 seems about right. Of course you could debate these odds round by round, but its very plausible IMO.
I just got rid of $100 of my bet to a friend and gave him 50/1. So I have a free shot at $2500.........

But the bet has very little value...,. Nothing special.....

Nice try at acting sharp
 
#46
I just got rid of $100 of my bet to a friend and gave him 50/1. So I have a free shot at $2500.........

But the bet has very little value...,. Nothing special.....

Nice try at acting sharp
Instead of being a prick as you do so well, why don't you engage in debate and tell me where my math is off. I'm reasonable and be glad to discuss, but have no patience for people acting like a pompous ass like you always do.
 
#47
Instead of being a prick as you do so well, why don't you engage in debate and tell me where my math is off. I'm reasonable and be glad to discuss, but have no patience for people acting like a pompous ass like you always do.
First of all what you posted is about as obvious as the sun. In 35 years of betting I have made probably 5 future bets like these because of what you posted. For the most part every future bet you would get more if you just parlayed them when the playoffs started.
What you posted is something every sharp bettor knows.... Please stop
The bet was 75-1...... It is now at 20 to 30 to 1 and that is a really bad bet, but anytime you can get a playoff team in any sport at odds that high there's a ton of value.
The thing you don't get is the post was made to help people and your posts served no purpose except to put a negative spin on the bet.....
But I have the problem?
Good one
 
#48
First of all what you posted is about as obvious as the sun. In 35 years of betting I have made probably 5 future bets like these because of what you posted. For the most part every future bet you would get more if you just parlayed them when the playoffs started.
What you posted is something every sharp bettor knows.... Please stop
The bet was 75-1...... It is now at 20 to 30 to 1 and that is a really bad bet, but anytime you can get a playoff team in any sport at odds that high there's a ton of value.
The thing you don't get is the post was made to help people and your posts served no purpose except to put a negative spin on the bet.....
But I have the problem?
Good one
There is so little value at 75-1 when the real odds are 30-1 and you should know that if you are so fucking sharp. Please stop this bullshit, I have been betting 28 years, so what how many years you have been betting? I know morons who never have winning years betting been doing it longer than me. Please show some real skills, this whole thread is a stupid exercise in homer asses telling me how much they like the Heat. Who cares?
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#49
There is so little value at 75-1 when the real odds are 30-1 and you should know that if you are so fucking sharp. Please stop this bullshit, I have been betting 28 years, so what how many years you have been betting? I know morons who never have winning years betting been doing it longer than me. Please show some real skills, this whole thread is a stupid exercise in homer asses telling me how much they like the Heat. Who cares?
What are you talking about? If he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, that's massive value.
 
#50
What are you talking about? If he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, that's massive value.
No its not, that's square thinking. Do some real math in percentages and you will see why. It's not 76 versus 31, it 1.3% versus 3.2%. Thinking the square way leads to bettors blowing a lot of money over betting on that future bet.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#51
No its not, that's square thinking. Do some real math in percentages and you will see why. It's not 76 versus 31, it 1.3% versus 3.2%. Thinking the square way leads to bettors blowing a lot of money over betting on that future bet.
I have and if he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, he theoretically has a 145% edge. Practically speaking, If he could lay an original bet of $100 off at an exchange, he could lock in a $145 profit right now if the Heat don’t win another game all year or they end up winning it all. There is a sundry of thing he could do and he has already done some of it by selling off a piece of his bet.

He has tremendous optionality w/ his position; he's in the catbird seat.

Do you understand why you are wrong?
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#52
I have and if he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, he theoretically has a 145% edge. Practically speaking, If he could lay an original bet of $100 off at an exchange, he could lock in a $145 profit right now if the Heat don’t win another game all year or they end up winning it all. There is a sundry of thing he could do and he has already done some of it by selling off a piece of his bet.

He has tremendous optionality w/ his position; he's in the catbird seat.

Do you understand why you are wrong?
He has a $2,500 freeroll on the Heat as we speak and there is still more he can do. He could bet against them in every single playoff series and even if the Heat win it all, he still makes money. I don't know what he's going to end up w/ or how he plans on leveraging his position, different strokes for different folks, but he can't possibly fuck this up. Wel, I suppose it's possible but you take my point.
 
#53
I have and if he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, he theoretically has a 145% edge. Practically speaking, If he could lay an original bet of $100 off at an exchange, he could lock in a $145 profit right now if the Heat don’t win another game all year or they end up winning it all. There is a sundry of thing he could do and he has already done some of it by selling off a piece of his bet.

He has tremendous optionality w/ his position; he's in the catbird seat.

Do you understand why you are wrong?
That's wrong thinking. You make a bet, your chances are what they are now. If you want to sell off a piece later that is a separate consideration. You can't assume you will be in this position three months later because often you will be underwater and can't sell it.

I don't like hedging but I get why it appeals to some. However that's almost always after making an overbet in the first place. Something that wins 3% of the time doesn't deserve one regular bet unit or even half of it. Thats a bad habit lots of even smarter bettors do with the idea that they want to hedge. I don't buy it, house edge is huge in futures and most bettors over rate their abilities to spot these.

Future bets should be treated mostly as lottery tickets, the house edge is too much to beat them in. There is a sweet spot you can very occasionally beat, but that's in the 5-1 to maybe 12-1 range. Ask any good horseplayer this, if you want to find value bets to win against something with high house edge, these are the ranges you can find value in. If you find a team or horse that's in your analysis 8-1 to win and it pays 12-1, that's bettable. Beyond those bets, you are just taking a shot and should make a minimal bet and don't expect to earn much. It's great to cash a big ticket, but chances are you do it once a decade and you'll be offsetting a lot of losers with it.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#54
No its not, that's square thinking. Do some real math in percentages and you will see why. It's not 76 versus 31, it 1.3% versus 3.2%. Thinking the square way leads to bettors blowing a lot of money over betting on that future bet.
No, it is.

If the Fair Price is 31 (30 to 1) then we are saying there is a 1 in 31 chance of the Heat actually winning it all. However, his bet at 76 (75 to 1) suggests there is a 1 in 76 chance of them winning. Once again, if the Fair price is 31, his reward-to-risk ratio is 30 to1, he's getting back $30 for every $1 he risks; in this case, since he captured 76, his reward-to-risk ratio is 75 to 1.

He can potentially get paid off 75 to 1 on something that should be paying 30 to 1.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#55
That's wrong thinking. You make a bet, your chances are what they are now. If you want to sell off a piece later that is a separate consideration. You can't assume you will be in this position three months later because often you will be underwater and can't sell it.

I don't like hedging but I get why it appeals to some. However that's almost always after making an overbet in the first place. Something that wins 3% of the time doesn't deserve one regular bet unit or even half of it. Thats a bad habit lots of even smarter bettors do with the idea that they want to hedge. I don't buy it, house edge is huge in futures and most bettors over rate their abilities to spot these.

Future bets should be treated mostly as lottery tickets, the house edge is too much to beat them in. There is a sweet spot you can very occasionally beat, but that's in the 5-1 to maybe 12-1 range. Ask any good horseplayer this, if you want to find value bets to win against something with high house edge, these are the ranges you can find value in. If you find a team or horse that's in your analysis 8-1 to win and it pays 12-1, that's bettable. Beyond those bets, you are just taking a shot and should make a minimal bet and don't expect to earn much. It's great to cash a big ticket, but chances are you do it once a decade and you'll be offsetting a lot of losers with it.
Bill, trust me, it's not.
 
#56
I have $300 on the bet....

If I could get rid of the other $200 at 50/1 I would now have a free shot at $7500.

Wild Bill I know what you are saying but what you're talking about has nothing to do with the bet.

You can't be serious.... Or you're just not thinking.
 
#57
And nobody is arguing about the value of most future bets, but if you're getting 75-1 on any playoff team in any sport it has a lot of value. Just does

I might have made 5 of these in my whole life so I understand how little value 95% of the bets are worth.
 
#58
Wild Bill.....

I have also middled and scalped with some of the biggest groups in Las Vegas for years and was most of the brains behind them.

Also booked in (ran them) some of the biggest offshore books there is (or was) ........

So the point is this.... There is nothing you can teach me! Nothing

And that goes for 99.9% of the people that think they know this shit....
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
#59
And nobody is arguing about the value of most future bets, but if you're getting 75-1 on any playoff team in any sport it has a lot of value. Just does

I might have made 5 of these in my whole life so I understand how little value 95% of the bets are worth.
I certainly don't agree with the fact that if you have 75-1 with any playoff team you have value (speaking NBA here, obviously an mlb team making the playoffs has to have value at 75-1.). However I don't think there is any debate on whether or not the Heat have value at 75-1 because they obviously do.
 
#60
I certainly don't agree with the fact that if you have 75-1 with any playoff team you have value (speaking NBA here, obviously an mlb team making the playoffs has to have value at 75-1.). However I don't think there is any debate on whether or not the Heat have value at 75-1 because they obviously do.
I'm sure you're right that not every bet has value......
 
#61
No, it is.

If the Fair Price is 31 (30 to 1) then we are saying there is a 1 in 31 chance of the Heat actually winning it all. However, his bet at 76 (75 to 1) suggests there is a 1 in 76 chance of them winning. Once again, if the Fair price is 31, his reward-to-risk ratio is 30 to1, he's getting back $30 for every $1 he risks; in this case, since he captured 76, his reward-to-risk ratio is 75 to 1.

He can potentially get paid off 75 to 1 on something that should be paying 30 to 1.
Fine argue it all you want, it's just under 2% edge. If you bet something at even that you are confident should be -110 you have earned a greater edge. That's just simple math.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#62
Fine argue it all you want, it's just under 2% edge. If you bet something at even that you are confident should be -110 you have earned a greater edge. That's just simple math.
I'm not arguing, I'm stating simple facts to you.

No, your edge is not greater getting 2.00 about a 1.91 chance. You're thinking about it all wrong; the prospects of the bet winning. That is no concern of yours as you have zero control over it, your concern is procuring a price above the Fair Price; that's it. Everything else will eventually take care of itself.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#63
Fine argue it all you want, it's just under 2% edge. If you bet something at even that you are confident should be -110 you have earned a greater edge. That's just simple math.
Here's an explanation and the math.

Edges are theoretical. He has an ~145% edge on his bet if we accept 31 as around the Fair Price.

76 / 31 = 2.45 (always minus “1” when calculating Edge in this manner)

Your edge obviously can't be > 100%, which is why I gave a practical example of how to think about it in an earlier post.

He had $300 @ 76. If he has a 145% edge (theoretically) then $300 * 1.45 = $435.

If you go to a hedge calculator and plug in his #'s, you'll see that if he could have somehow layed his bet off at 31, he would have been able to lock in a profit of $435.

OR

Think about it by multiplying the probabilities through by their payoffs and taking the difference.

He has a 3.2% chance (1/31) of making a profit of $22,500 and a 96.8% chance of losing his original $300 stake.

(0.032 * $22,500) - (0.968 * $300)

$720 – $290.4 = $429.60 (His EV on the Bet)

$430 / $300 = 1.43 Expected Yield on the Bet (notice this basically mirrors his Edge above)
 
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GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#64
To summarize, cultivate an EV Mindset.

If you think of your Edge as your Expected Yield, you will realize that getting 2.00 about a 1.91 chance (4.7% Expected Yield) is nowhere near the Expected Yield of getting 76 about a 31 chance (145% Expected Yield).
 
#65
To summarize, cultivate an EV Mindset.

If you think of your Edge as your Expected Yield, you will realize that getting 2.00 about a 1.91 chance (4.7% Expected Yield) is nowhere near the Expected Yield of getting 76 about a 31 chance (145% Expected Yield).
Umm ok, I'm tired of arguing about it. Carry on.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#66
Umm ok, I'm tired of arguing about it. Carry on.
Once again, this isn't an argument and Ive been very patient with you. You keep saying, it's just math, you're right, it is and I showed you the math.

Sorry you can't admit when your wrong, it's a big weakness. It's OK to be wrong, it's not OK to stay wrong.

You can keep up this Sharp guy act all you want but when I find out that your dissemneating false information, you're going to get called out on it.
 
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